littledavesab

In praising Fat Tony's abilities over the engineer's, Taleb is probably thinking of a particular person. But Fat Tony makes me think of a different person: a 'local' (independent self-employed trader) on the old LIFFE trading floor.

 

These guys (usually from Essex - British readers will understand ) made a very good living in the 1990s in the open outcry futures pits. But when trading went electronic, many of them couldn't adapt. Yes they were streetwise, but they were very dependent on a particular ecology of market institutions.

Am presently residing in Stratford E15 myself!

Just remembered this

http://ftalphaville....he-barrow-boys/

Terry Smith, Tullett's chief executive, once described inter-dealer broking as "a full-contact sport", and the British are accustomed to playing such games without helmets or body-armour.

There are still some barrow boys in inter-dealer broking, but it has evolved into more an attitude of mind than a matter of social class. Mr Smith was born to a lorry driver in London's East End, while Michael Spencer, Icap's chief executive, was the son of a colonial administrator and attended a Sussex boarding school and Oxford University

Incidentally I see Terry Smith has a blog and was educated in Stratford!

http://www.terrysmit...raight-talking/

- interesting article on possible dangers re ETF's and naked shorting on there

Intelligence is the ability to think and behave like both Dr John and Fat Tony as the situation demands. That is,

 

Intelligence = anchored adaptability

 

where

 

Adaptability = ability to think and act in radically different ways in different environments

 

Anchored = not just behaving the same as other people in your current environment

 

But this does beg the question of what your adaptability is anchored to! Rationality, perhaps. Or perhaps other values.

Oooh very good - especially where the markets are concerned.

The ability to think and behave like both Dr John and Fat Tony as the situation demands - should be a necessary part of being a hedge fund manager! Wonder how many would qualify? Dont tell me - thats a whole other book! Actually it would be great if it were a pre-requsite of being a normal institutional fund manager, rather than having to be a herd follower...........

Well I guess you could see the 4/12 early school leavers in the book as Fat Tonys.

 

But whilst the concept of the ludic fallacy is a helpful one, I don't really agree with Taleb's association of personalities and insight.

 

He says "Fat Tony would outperform Dr. John in any other possible ecological,

real-life, situation." Well, maybe the particular Fat Tony he has in mind (I think Taleb is probably thinking of someone he once knew). But in general, no. I think the engineers (and actuaries!) are in general much better at thinking outside the box than the Fat Tonys.

THANKS CHARLIE, am somewhat disappointed, was rooting for the Fat Tony's! Agree that Taleb was probably thinking of someone he once knew and maybe that clouded his thinking somewhat. Similar comparison maybe Liars Poker and the of Italian descent floor traders mentioned who could have been lorry drivers in another life.

On the otherhand maybe people who are capable of being successful at this game do have some special qualities. Really must read the book!

Charlie - if you are still around. Have put your book on my "to do" list - will get hold of it someday as it sounds interesting. Am kinda intregued as to who the GEI successes are, although I could probably guess (wrongly).

Question if I may - one of the best things in Talib's Black Swann (I think) is the "Ludic Fallacy" - Fat Tony vs Dr John comparison (see link below) which I brutally round down to the wiseguy vs the scientific approach. For me it was a bit of a wakeup call as an investor.

Does your book in detailing the characters of the various investors deal with any any of these personality traits? If not are you able to comment at all?

I guess the chartists would be coming more from the wiseguy approach (no insult intended to chartists.......... or wiseguys). I guess the GEI posters may also be wiseguys compared to the wider world!

Cheers

Dave

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/LudicFallacy.pdf

Seems as it was published might be interesting to bump this thread

new thread =

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14600&st=0

interesting blog by the author re the book, deserves a link

http://guythomas.org.uk/blog/

+ link to the authors original thread

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7533&st=0&gopid=214897&

When a large US metals dealer emails you to offer to BUY product OVER SPOT !!!!

“APMEX Wants To Buy Your U.S. Mint Products! Dear Jack,

 

Due to the recent incredible demand for Gold and Silver bullion products, APMEX would like to offer you an exclusive opportunity to LOCK IN YOUR PRICES and sell us some of your U.S. Mint collection. This is a limited time offer and it is first come, first served until we have secured enough U.S. Mint bullion products to meet our current demand!

 

“We Want These Products:

 

We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $1,250.00 for your 2010 America The Beautiful 5 oz. Silver coin sets. “

 

To me this is one of those small but significant signals that many big financial analysts miss. The key here if you have ever sold gold or silver is you usually get right about spot price. Be it eagles or generic rounds or what ever, each class has a spot price.

 

http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/

double post

When a large US metals dealer emails you to offer to BUY product OVER SPOT !!!!

"APMEX Wants To Buy Your U.S. Mint Products!Dear Jack,

 

Due to the recent incredible demand for Gold and Silver bullion products, APMEX would like to offer you an exclusive opportunity to LOCK IN YOUR PRICES and sell us some of your U.S. Mint collection. This is a limited time offer and it is first come, first served until we have secured enough U.S. Mint bullion products to meet our current demand!

 

"We Want These Products:

 

We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!

 

We will pay you $1,250.00 for your 2010 America The Beautiful 5 oz. Silver coin sets. "

 

To me this is one of those small but significant signals that many big financial analysts miss. The key here if you have ever sold gold or silver is you usually get right about spot price. Be it eagles or generic rounds or what ever, each class has a spot price.

 

http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=F8UPsSU_EqU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8UPsSU_EqU

Don the wellies for the theme tune to the survival podcast. am not really into rock n roll these days but it kinda grows on ya. Foward-wind the into by podcast host music starts about 2 mins 10 seconds in.

edit - since GEI thingy upgrade had difficulty in uploading Utube vids - what you need to do is use full editor, find option to insert media and post the whole email address in or

[ media ] http://www.youtube.c...h?v=F8UPsSU_EqU [ / media ] - without the obvious spaces

good lyrics: http://revolutionroc...yrics?id=550153 - Gregg Yows - "Revolution Is You"

You pull yourself up

But they keep …bringin you down

Are they gonna bail you out?

Or just, run you a-round

They said you should have a house

It's the 'merican way

Dollar down, a dollar a month

And you'll never have to pay

But there's a better way to do this

Let me show you a better way!

You don't have to be,

another face In the crowd,

You don't have to live the way they

want you to,

Make your own way,

and the others will follow

The revolution is you...

It's in our food these days, you know it's on our TV,

Sometimes we forget that we are what we eat

I don't know the answer,

it's like there's nothin' I can do

It's the price we pay, I guess, if we follow all the rules

Someday day we'll real-ize our children just can't pay,

And nobody up there cares, they're livin' for today

You don't have to be,

another face In the crowd,

You don't have to live the way they

want you to,

Make your own way,

and the others will follow

The revolution is you...

Maybe we should merge these two threads?

GOOD IDEA

O/T but might be of interest to those who like this sort of company

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john...mic-crisis.aspx

John Mauldin plugs Pat Cox, A firm called ISCO, ISCO's age defying product (yes really) plus a nice sweet heart warming story

can read it here

http://itsnotyourmoneyblog.com/2010/12/16/...any-to-be-with/

or here

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=ca...kEIgA&pli=1

Not much of a greenie myself. However am planning on getting the little one interested in home grown produce starting with next years growing season. Have only a smallish rear garden to play with and weeds and a large hedge belonging to next door to contend with. Not a great deal of natural light unless towards end of day on rear decking area.

Am thinking of

strawberry plant - as strawberries as previously mentioned are a high cost food

+ baby sweetcorn as these seem fairly hardy and can take care of themselves + good size for the little one to eat!

+ whatever will grow well in a growbag - tomatos maybe

+ has anyone here thought /heard of aquaponics - is apparently serious stuff for home self sufficiency ! see

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry190377

Yes, the presentation make sense but i think it is more understandable if there is a description as well.

Welcome to GEI & thanks for echoing my thoughts

BUMP

does the presentation need an update now we are in stage 2 (possibly 3) of a gold bull market ?

Also re BUMP my previous suggestion of doing a CWR / FBB on this topic

You wanna tell an insurance company you have some at home??

GL.

Just check the insurance plicy wording for valuables or high risk items definitions then total up what you have got and you will know if you are covered or not.

BTW coin collectors are not so unusual. Do you not think that there are people out there with literally £100K worth +++ of jewellery in a normal house who deal with insurance companies and make full disclosures of what they have etc.?

Riggers & others might like this one - KLF

From:

KLF were also famous for burning a million dollars $$$$$$$$$$$$$

And that was in the days when a million was real money :lol:

This one is annoyingly catchy and annoyingly repetitive

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K7fL5s_1ac

Saw this one on TV earlier so here goes - always makes me smile...for some reason.....

From:

just to say - i would add that it is very likely that both yourself and harvi have seen apocalypse now, but if you have not, boy are you in for a treat!

On the subject of Vietnam war and music remember this rather tenuous link

Full Metal Jacket (great film and another treat for those who have not seen it)

and

"Me So Horny" - 2 Live Crew

WARNING - EXPLICIT LYRICS !!!

From:

tenuous link explained - doubt that you need it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me_So_Horny#Film_samples

Loved listening to the 80's 90's dance tracks. Few missing from me.

Ah memories

Anyone heard this dance track before by the great Wyclef Jean a possible future President of Haiti

A great update of an old classic

From:

Firstly thanks for the 'reggae' post. Do you know who the MC is as he sounds very, very familiar? It's appreciated (not heard before) and reminds me of stuff I used to collect (from the likes of U-Roy, Papa San, Tipper Irie et al. Have largely slept on new dancehall, though always catch the Big Mikey Dread podcast).

Not sure of exact MC but the music seemed to be a mix (rather than just one track) of the Joyride album - chose to post that as when I visited the carribean back in 1996 this was all the rage (so not new sorry) - is one of those albums where various artists have done their own version of a tune to someones backing tracks. Some blinding tracks on there and some misses. While reminiscing on the good 'ole days it seemed a good choice.

Album info etc

http://www.amazon.com/Joyride-Various-Artists/dp/B000001TQS

Observes that since I discovered business podcasts and GEI my concentration on the other has been somewhat neglected. Lifebalance re-adjustment required!

Underling I am very glad you decided to stay.

Also happy to see the 80#s revival that seems to be going on on the previous page - are we showing our age

Anyway think Underling might appreciate this + So might DrBubb apologies if its already been posted, then again no apologies for a classic

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqvwxvCOSH4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqvwxvCOSH4

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxdCwVVULXd

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkUguBIcCVw...&playnext=2

Question for gold bugs - what was lying on the floor outside the jewellers between 1.40 and 1.50 in ????- obviously Jeff Wayne (or was it Orson Wells) didnt get gold as a safe haven investment

And more than a few of you might appreciate this - great melody dont you think.....

From:

Ps re war of the worlds - would it spoil it for all you sci fi fans if I were to mention that 90% of such films seem to be based on the same basic plot, aliens come with superior tech, mankind seems beaten, mankind unleashes a virus which wipes out said aliens. From the excellent V to the awful signs had this plot. It did for me - sorry! But full marks to Independence Day fo being original and making the virus a computer virus.

I see there is a musical version of War of the worlds on tour - interesting.....

http://www.soldouteventtickets.com/listing...ts&Filter=1

but I dont think it is quite the Mrs's "cup of tea" - I will have to sweeten her up.......................

+ A reggae one you might not have heard before

From:

Off on my holidays now and when I return I've got to re-evaluate how I use my free time. This is a thread I've particularly enjoyed more than any other. In some ways I've probably learned more about you all as individuals here than on any other thread and I thank all for their contributions. Thought I'd post a few that should have been posted here a long time ago ............................

 

I still have to add thanks to all else especially Harvipak, sorry I haven't got a reposte for you but just to add I've loved all posts.

Peace and love to one and all and I sincerely hope you find your heart desire.

Most of my private internet browsing is on my mobile these days and this thread crashes my mobile internet which is a shame

Wonders how we went from the early days of rap having conscious lyrics like "the message" to modern gangsta rap Bring back the conscious stuff I say - good on ya Paradise

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=]Ehiw4vG

APOLOGIES if already posted see linky for chart

http://www.rickackerman.com/

Has Gold’s price action been getting you down lately? Take heart, since relief could come as early as today or tomorrow in the form of a Hidden Pivot support at exactly $1140.10. For the last two weeks, that’s been our downside target for the correction begun five weeks ago from around $1266, although it didn’t begin to emerge with clarity until the August Comex contract plunged from $1208 right after the July 4th holiday weekend. (You can get a week’s worth of free forecasts and access to the 24/7 chat room by clicking here.) At yesterday’s lows, the correction so far had knocked 8% off the price of gold relative to the all-time high recorded on June 21. Even though we’d been expecting this weakness, we told subscribers at the outset that we didn’t foresee anything more serious developing.

Although we avoid chiseling such predictions in stone, we’ve advised cautious bottom-fishing near $1140, using a tight stop-loss of $2 or less. Our confidence is high that there will be a tradable bounce from the target, although a decisive breach would be the equivalent of the groundhog seeing his shadow – i.e., six more weeks (or so) of winter. Please note that we’ve identified a secondary target at 1155.00 that may have been fulfilled by yesterday’s 1156.90 low. However, our gut feeling is that this Hidden Pivot support will fail, sending the August contract down to the more important one at 1140.10

two golden oldies

ELO (I just love ELO) - When its summer and feeling good

From:

VS

Queen

From:

The FSN page seems to have been messed up. If you still want to download this week's broadcasts go to http://feeds.feedburner.com/fsn and download using the headline links.

Thanks for that. Leads me to a question Ive been pondering - has anyone found an automated way of downloading FSN weekly podcasts?

+ Same question for King World News ?

I have Itunes that works well for others like 2beers with Steve and Martin Wolf.

Oops is this off topic - hope we dont need a new thread for a silly question.

Here's a few more for the nostalgia trip .......................

cool nice finds - Big Daddy Kane - now there are memories !

seems as you mentioned Milkshake I couldnt resist - I actually got the Kelis album and its not bad Turn up the Bass & the AC

From:

However re

Most (not all) hip hop now seems to be nothing more than adverts for capitalism. A bling consciousness. The people fronting it are working for selling that consiousness. That's what it's about ....... jealousy. Stopping contentment, arousing greed and discontentment for more .... what I've got is better than yours. My milkshake brings all the fellas to my yard and their life is better than yours.

In general terms re the global "rap" (as opposed to hip-hop) industry I would agree but the milkshake reference - sorry that is just taking da milkshake outta context