ecoface

I am only going short for the short term correction as my original post states - I don't disagree with the longer term trend. I just simply think that this is not "it" yet.

Sorry, I should have also added that I went short Oil yesterday too.

Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that. The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

How do gold bugs respond to the TA revealing an overbought position? Look at RSI, Chaikin money flow, and also volume? FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support. I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top. ...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.

OOhh I love patterns. It looks remarkably like a triple top to me. Look at the symmetry. If it goes near to 1000 again it will be be the stongest signal for a crash down to lows of 750. Be careful what you wish for.

Considering how many gold bugs there are on this site I am surprised no one has replied to this. It is by far the largest trade this year in this ETF. The average largest trade is about 0.5m so this is ABNORMAL. Why?

According to my trading software, someone/ thing bought $29m of PHAU (Gold ETF) at 4 pm today. That is hefty vote of confidence if correct but I'm not sure it is. Can others see this trade too or is something wrong with my data? I can't believe it.

They were aggressive with development lending particularly from 2006 onwards. Indeed I would suggest competing for clients with RBS, HBOS and the Irish banks - that in itself may tell us something.

The irony is that buyers entering now, and a brief rise, will only serve to prolong the price falls, thus any recovery. Everyone is so short termist it amazes me. A shorter sharper steeper decline and crash is considerably better than a state led, bailed out, subsidised, hpc, and recession.

Bubb, You have written before that you see a bottom being "When the average of the 4 top Builder stocks breaks above the 12 month moving average. After you see that, you should have about 6-12 months to the low." So if the stocks shoot through the 252 MA we could be 6-12 months off a bottom. My guess is that in a few weeks or by May the rally in builders' stocks (and most EMs) will have petered out, so this is merely a false dawn, and the MA may be pierced but not any movement will not be sustainable. You have also written that before we see a low we need to satisfy the following criteria: "+ 3 to 5 years from the top (ie. 2010-12) + Yields above interest rates (= Buying cheaper than Renting) + Most foreclosures washed through the system + A serious rally in Builders has already happened. (trading above the 252d.MA) probably: + US property prices at least 6-12 months before an upswing." I agree with all of these and frankly and idea that we have a bottom is not worth the air-time, other than to help people not get their fingers burnt!

I've seen you explain this train of thought in several posts. A gradual increase in POG seems unlikely to me. I accept that the 1970s was not deflationary. However, I also think that whilst the headliners will explain that it is deflationary now, inflation will creep in next year and then set well in thereafter. At that time POG will start on the mania phase IMO and we could see the parabolic pattern which you think will not occur. Therefore we can conclude that you believe we will not encounter inflation and that it is not on the menu for the next 5-6 years (I think you cite 2014-2015 before the peak in POG.) Secondly, I just can't see a gradual movement upwards because of the speculative nature of price movements. Gold over the next 5 years will only end up in another bubble, like any other asset class, or commodity, currency.

Yes we are definitely over extended. Can't be arsed to justify anymore as I have been for a week now and get shot down.

Paranoid?

I'm not advising anyone. I don't think 200. I've been through what I think - all based on parallels to the 1970s in REAL terms. You think this is THE move to over 1200 and beyond. I don't. But we will get another correction first before the big move. So we think the same but I am more patient. GTG

So do I. I sold all my PMs recently anticipating a very large correction. I can't see this lasting much longer and may go above 1000-1030, but thereafter it will be carnage, and time to re-invest again.

That's because the mid cycle correction that will occur in the next year will be much greater than that correction IMHO.

I agree. I also think that alot of those who have bought physical will sell in the correction.

Its interesting how people see different things. The bit that scares me most in the article is: "It's a little worrisome that so many people are piling in," Gartman said. The herd is gathering. A big correction will come perhas after a re-test of 1000-1030, but it will demolish all that dumb money that has flooded in Dec / Jan.

Like you say, time will tell, but then what's 5-8 years of no growth or negative when you look at where we were and just how well off we have been for many years. This disruption will bring sort the wheat from the chaff and IMO is evolutionary anyway. The good will come out of, but as yet, we can't see what it is.

Many western Govts own more than 1000 tonnes so I am not sure that ETFs are as influential other than when Govts sell they gold it has to be within the parameters of the Central Bank Gold Aggreement and its terms (i.e. not to sell more than 400 tonnes per year and no more thann 2500 tonnes over 5 years). Of course though etfs are not bound by this.

Yes alot of growth was fuelled by credit. However, alot of growth was created by ingenuity, creativity, inspiration, invention, hard work, tenacity, productivity, IT, globalisation, improved terms of trade and so on. In other words the boom grew on the back of these basic factors which allowed more credit to come through and so on. Let us not assume that with credit contraction all of the basic factors of growth will be eradicated. Value in terms money may be reduced significantly but the gains (health, science, efficiency, IT, invention, inter-dependence etc etc) will not be lost forever. So lets not be too alarmist here. Growth will return but will be measured in different ways perhaps.

That own c 1000 tonnes of gold - not to be ignored perhaps

No point in having a debate then if it is irrelevant

You quoted my post but didn't refer to the volumes questions. Do you know?

Has anyone compared the Volumes in the mid 1970s to now? Secondly... I may not have the evidence so could you please provide it to suggest the volumes are low now compared to the last 10 years? At what point does a minority cease to be a minority? How do you quantify the judgement - volumes or something else? Put it this way I know a lot more retail investors that are in PMs than 6 months ago. Now if they are behind the institutions and funds then is there not already decent investment?