Bobsta

6.60 next week

$9.47 currently.... does your prediction of $6.60 still hold? If it does, that's one hell of a shorting opp.

One more reason for gold and silver to get bombed off their highs: tomorrow is a gold/silver option expiry.

Here we go........ $8.81...

PUT THE ROCKETS AWAY!!!

Poor form.

I disagree. I thought it was funny and states cgnao's opinion ("trading gold based on TA is not wise right now") in quite an amusing way.

I would've thought we're all mature enough to enjoy a bit of banter. Hopefully Ker won't be offended.... I, for one, really enjoy his posts.

Ker is as entitled to his opinion as your are to yours.

No matter how right you may have been lately, throwing stones is

simply throwing stones.

I don't really get this.

Ker is entitled to his opinion. So is cgnao.

cgnao didn't abuse or insult Ker (e.g "you're a lying useless low-life idiot"), or leave a message on his answering machine saying he'd had sexual relations with his grand-daughter... it's just an opinion on charting.

Lighten up folks.

Nah, the red line is more like it.

 

LOL! .. I've got to say in this current market I'm more and more inclined to agree that TA *must* be getting difficult if not impossible. You have organisations going bust or being bailed out, central banks slashing rates, stock markets yo-yoing. When the fundamentals and external factors are swinging around all over the place, how on earth can the charts (which show where the money flowed in THE PAST) have any real bearing on the future? - other than the fact that a lot of black boxes out there are trading according to how they've been programmed - which is to follow the charts.

Add in a spot of market intervention/manipulation and it really becomes a lottery.

A year ago I was an anti-chartist. Having read up quite a bit, I'm now more of a believer and I feel they have real value.

But right now? In this climate?! ... tenuous, at best.

What I mean is yesterday you envisaged $840 and today is has been revised to $680. Not having a go here, just wondering if the second price replaces the first in your mind or whether they both still stand within different time frames?

 

Also wondering if you would have better success if you took a slightly longer term approach. Or maybe you are solely concerned with a short term trade. If so, could I ask if you trade yourself on the basis of your predictions?

I asked Ker the same(ish) question a couple of weeks ago. Response here.

I agree that sometimes Ker's forecasts appear to be contradictory when taken at face value. However, I think

(and Ker can confirm) that all that's happening is Ker is making a prediction based on an event occurring and then later if that situation isn't met, providing a revised forecast. e.g. "if we break 750 we'll see 790 before going lower" ... then 6 hours later "we didn't make it through 750 so we're off to 680 now".

I'd never trade based solely on someone else's predictions and charts - but if I wanted to, I think I would find it hard to based on Ker's charts. I also feel that producing two (or three) different predictions based on looking at daily and weekly (and monthly) charts is interesting but doesn't really provide any tradable info. The complex bit is combining input from *all* the time period charts, as well as fundamentals and external factors to make an informed prediction.

I can't do it. So right now I don't try. Ker does seem to have a reasonable rate of success but it's difficult to follow when the call gets cancelled/changed.

Interesting yellow-brick-road diversion ... but back to Gold.

On one hand I'm feeling quite impressed with myself for feeling that the rally wouldn't last and we'd be back at sub-$740 levels soon - and being right.

On the other, with rates cut and Bernanke talking of further cuts, I don't see why there was such a persistent sell-off today, so am quite unimpressed with myself for "not getting it".

I've had a heavy week - someone explain it to me please.

If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls)

So would you wait for $850 (presumably post-election)... or would you risk going long here ($775 currently)?

Waiting for a $75 move up slightly concerns me, as that will be buying into huge strength.... but interested in your view.

Silver's still in backwardation. I've still no idea what that *really* signals.

The fall in the GBP is scaring me. I'm going to initiate a transfer of some more money to GoldMoney this weekend and buy some more KGs of silver when it hits next week.

You'd think a bar of silver would fall faster than a piece of paper if you drop it - but looking at today's FX moves, I feel GBP has its lead boots on.

From your last chart is gold still going down to the 200ma at about 680 dollars? Or have we hit the bottom and should I buy in now before it goes higher than 730 ?

Are you buying in dollars, pounds, or another currency?

That's quite important. If the dollar turns (as many are waiting for it to do, and Ker suspects it may do from next week) you may see the price of gold rise in USD but move relatively little in GBP or EUR terms.

IMO the GBP is due a little bounce next week. Even though it's a turd, it's been over-sold this week.

About 2.5% at the moment. Small, but not tiny, I would say. But at the end of the day, the spot price of gold is what these miners can get for their products. Someone has to buy all this new gold, or the price will plummet.

Well, it should be... but it's not. The spot price of gold is determined on global paper trading markets like LME and COMEX.

Who needs to do TA - let's just follow this guy!

Unfortunately, doing that has cost me the price of a small flat!

Wow... Jim Sinclair issuing a bit of a war cry...

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

 

Gold is a currency.

 

Paper currency insures nothing.

 

Gold is insurance.

 

Gold is not a commodity.

 

Gold will trade at a minimum of $1650 MUCH SOONER THAN I HAVE ANTICIPATED.

 

The shorts in gold shares will get what they deserve - financial decimation.

 

Your friend,

Jim

...is this desperation, or does he really know something?

Gold making a serious come back out of the gates. $713

Didn't last long. I was beginning to think it might be a good exit point for those who cannot stand any more pain. Maybe others felt the same and acted.

$704 now.

I would be happy to follow your suggestions on £100 invested in a new BV account and display the results as a reference to others. What do you think?

Azazel... if you're going to trade this stuff, I really don't see BV or GoldMoney as the place to do it - the spreads and dealing costs are just too high, meaning it's not an efficient method of getting out and getting back in.

I'd be interested to know if others disagree. But I strongly suspect most people trading gold will be doing it using futures or SBing accounts, where the combined spread & fee is tiny (less than $1/oz, in most cases).

gold did not hit my lower channel line, but the environment for the rally is very good, dollar topped, stocks holded, we should have rally tomorrow, and monday, and tuesday, retest the bottoms. I think silver is more oversold than gold, so it has more solid bottom

Just out of interest, Ker ... do you trade your charts, or just do it for amusement/education/confirmation of a long-term strategy?

If you do trade, do you ever go short, or just prefer to exit the market when you think a downturn is on the cards?

----

Minor whinge moment... At times I really do rue the day I decided to get into the whole gold and silver thing. At the start of 2008 I was minding my own business hedging my GBP savings with GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF shorts - had I stuck with that approach and not dabbled in G&S I would have protected my savings well and made a healthy profit. Instead, my savings have been exposed to this devaluation, and I've lost a sizeable wedge of cash on G&S.

Looking at the GBP/JPY chart this evening really breaks my heart. I bailed out of that in July and concentrated on G&S. What a mistake?!!

I may be looking for positivity where none exists.... But was that just a very solid bounce from $720?

Anyone interested in a thread on the mining and refining industry as well dissecting individual company financial reports? I for one could do with more hard facts than all the TA stuff, and would also like to learn from any seasoned mining investors we have here.

Isn't that what this entire section of GEI is all about?

Small gold selloff possible from here, so you may see it back below $6.00 ($5.90?)

$3.25 now.

Screaming buy?

- or -

Don't touch it with a barge pole?

Can someone explain to me what the hui actually is and why it is useful? (I only need the gist and not a lecture please!)

From: http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/index/goldbugs.asp

The (HUI) BUGS index is made up exclusively of mining stocks that do not hedge their gold positions more than a year-and-a-half into the future. This makes the BUGS Index much more profitable than the XAU when gold prices are rising, but can also compound its losses when gold declines. BUGS is an acronym for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. The index was introduced on March 15, 1996 with a starting value of 200.

silver has gone into backwardation today.

 

Dec Comex silver is trading 5 cents UNDER spot physical London delivery.

You're right. Well spotted.

I'm only a simpleton, but in my mind there could be two causes of this:

1) There are short-term shortages.

2) Silver lease rates are running higher than cash interest rates, meaning the yield on silver is higher than cash, ergo the "interest rate differential" is driving the futures price in the same way it does for a currency pair where one currency provides a higher yield (IR) than the other.

But I'd gladly welcome input from someone with more insight.... It appears backwardation isn't hugely uncommon according to: http://www.gold.org/assets/file/rs_archive...ckwardation.pdf

Those frickin' graphs are breaking my heart. Can't you upload 'em upside down or something?

Maybe British Bulls' view that a "bullish pattern has developed" might cheer you up: http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=PHAG

...admittedly, it's quite weak, but the next few days will be quite telling from a TA perspective.

Personally I'm out of trading silver until (even in tiny portions) after the elections... just too darn volatile for my liking.

Gold got whacked it seems. Off to $780?

I'm so glad I don't trade gold any more... that's one nasty set of charts...

http://bobsta.com/pm/

I believe the ounce price for both coins and 1 K bars are the same at NZ mint. And 18% premium on both. Should I just be buying coins?

It's the smaller denominations that are carrying a premium right now (100g bars and coins) ... so if it's the same price/oz for large and small, you're better off grabbing the small stuff.

Is Gold still playing that "Anti-Dow" trick? ... It shot up just as the Dow shot down.

 

Part of me wants to "do an Azazel" ... I smell a smackdown (either market or PPT-induced) around the corner.

 

But then again, it could be an "it's different this time" moment.

 

Where's Ker when you need him?!

Oh MAN why don't I go with my instincts?!!?!?!?

I sold a lot of Gold and Silver at very good prices last night. That spike had "unsustainable" written all over it and we'd had a good week.

Then this morning I gave in to the uber-bull mentality and went and bloomin bought it all back (and more) ... What a complete and utter tool!! I feel like I've been skinned alive.