Bobsta

Their view is that the market is bearish and the last trading days have confirmed this. I would think it has been bullish to neutral. Still I will continue to check out their suggestions each day to see longer term.

They're back to WAIT now...

Our system posted a WAIT today. The previous SELL recommendation was made on 27.08.2008 (1) day ago,

when the stock price was 8,226.0000. Since then PHAU has gained 0.53% .

I'm glad I didn't listen to them. But nice to have some TA advising caution now and then, I guess.

They were wrong in june when it 'bottomed'..

Looks like they might be wrong today too. Over $840 ATM.

For what it's worth, British Bulls are suggesting a SELL...

That analysis makes no sense whatsoever to me.

"We hope that you sold this stock. You should watch the downward gap in the opening, wait a bit, feel the bearish tendency of the market making sure that prices stay below the opening price and then sell your shares. Your benchmark was the opening price of the downward gap. A weakness in prices is implied as long as the prices stay below the benchmark."

But gold hardly moved in yesterday's trading. Methinks this is black box computer analysis gone a bit too far.

(£169,316 - £164,654) / £169,316 = 2.75%

 

That'll be the old "seasonal adjustment" then...

See...i told you all to take another look at 2:30pm.......

Steve, if you have another few days like that, we'll be crowning you the new Silver Sammy.

Days like today are a day-trader's paradise! Especially when you can even predict the *time* that the bounce-back will occur. Awesome.

A nice run-up on NY open.

Will the mini sell-off that's occurred the last two days kick in today as well? Let's see...

Can't find the original post about Paul Van Eeden saying gold was overvalued, but here is a recent interview

 

http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/august-200...2008/#clip84424

 

He certainly looks quite smart just now - went neutral at 1000, nibbling sub 800, as beleives fair value = 760

A very solid interview IMHO. Clearly we don't know how he performed his calculations and what assumptions/rates were used, but on that performance he's clearly a smart, lucid professional. One of the more credible investors / pundits out there in my view.

Very useful comments on juniors, I thought. Maybe you could get him on CWR CC?

I fail to see why gold is repeatedly over stated as a commodity, central banks do not hoard rice or copper.

A bloody good point, well made! Thanks, I'll use that little nugget (no pun intended) in future conversations on this topic.

Laura, I'd definitely convert at least 10% today/this week. I'm a GBP-holder and look what's happened to that against the USD lately.

It's your money and your call, but leaving it all there earning no interest when we're nearing the end of August?..... it just wouldn't be my strategy.

Read again. He doesn't. He somewhere states on his webpage he can't even live off it. And living is cheap in the US.

He does say in the article

On the other hand, the entire silverstockreport.com barely brings in $400,000/year in subscriptions, so this is something for me to seriously consider.

By "barely brings in" I take this to mean it brings in around $350,000-$400,000/yr. But anyway, we digress.

Now isn't that interesting !

Yeah, read it yesterday.

Quite stunned that Jason makes $400,000 a year purely on subscriptions to his tipster service.

If I made $400k/yr just for letting people know what stocks I'd bought I reckon I could afford to be quite speculative!

silver back up to $13 lets hope it stay there.

$13.30 now and gold over $800 ($803).

I just can't help but think it will dip back below though.

More importantly, why would anyone buy a product which has 17.5% VAT slapped on it? That seems like quite a dent in the investment.

I have thought this in the past. But since the re-sale value of the coin also contains VAT, is it really much of an issue?

I remember as a child being at Southampton Boat Show and hearing an adult say "I'm not going to buy that new boat. I'll buy it second-hand and save the VAT" ... so as a kid I somehow thought that new things all cost 15% more (now 17.5%) than second-hand things.

However, clearly that's not the case. Most items depreciate, all by varying amounts. A handful of items appreciate - usuaully those in short supply or those in which the new price keeps rising. But VAT pays no part in resale values.

So, yep, it's slightly annoying to know that because you live in the UK you pay VAT on something that others don't. But if you sell it to someone else in the UK, does it really matter?

It will be interesting to see how this physical/paper divergence pans out. I can thing of a few boring, practical reasons why physical would be hard to get hold of now, but only time will tell.

 

e.g. these dealers must have paid a lot more for these coins than they can now sell them for. If they think this is just a dip, they would logically be buying themselves now, and holding tight to what they have. Or just maintaining very low stocks in a falling market.

This makes perfect sense to me. Coin dealers serve the domestic market. And the domestic market anecdotally seems to want to buy MORE when the price falls.

But equally dealers will not want to sell their stocks at a loss, and if they can sell products at hefty levels above spot price, why wouldn't they?

You could call it a divergence of physical vs paper ... or you could just argue this is simple supply/demand economics. Just as some people are happy to pay £2.50 for an ice cream at a cinema - regardless of the internationally set commodities price for milk; In the current situation people want this stuff and are happy to pay the true market price - not some ficticious price set on COMEX.

Why would anyone have silver (or gold) on margin? You'd have to be insane.

OK, a little example of why you might do this.

Say you have £10k you want to invest in silver. You could go out and buy physical, pay 7% VAT (or whatever it is), a 1% dealing charge and then find somewhere to keep it safe.

Or, you could put £5k in a trading account, leave £5k in an RPI-beating savings account, and go long on Silver futures to the tune of £7/pt - at $14.28/oz this would give you 1428x7 = £10,000 "exposure" (OK, I'm ignoring USD/GBP currency fluctuations here, but hopefully you get the point).

Silver falls to $12.28, you're £1400 down. But you would be if you held physical too.

Silver rises to $16.28, you're £1400 up. And you would be if you held physical too.

Only you've eliminated the 7% VAT, you also have £5k earning interest, and you've also provided a very fast way to get out of (and back in to) the market if you want. You don't have to, but you have the option.

The key is to NOT over-leverage and be able to cope with the falls.

When physical and paper prices diverge then yes, physical is clearly playing its trump card. But for me the "dealing charges" of physical silver (VAT, mark-up, etc.) have made it too prohibitive for me to get into. I just hate giving money away for nothing.

Perth Mint Watch - Jason Hommel

 

Jason has a lot to say about the perth mint program.

But he goes OTT on the subject and has lost the plot IMHO.

Seconded. I have to let it sink in slowly, then return later & see if my head is around it

 

May I turn this around into a simple, self-centred question?

 

If you had 150,000 lying in a Euro account, (& it is unlikely you would ever need it), would you not be tempted to stuff the lot in PMs right now?

.... because I am so tempted. All else (apart from Dr Bubb's, too much for my brain, investing) looks a disaster zone.

 

If I ask myself the question will Gold fall in relation to the Euro over 3-5 yrs, then it seems madness not to proceed?

 

If I go any deeper than this the clarity vanishes

 

All comments welcome please............ even 'shut up woman!'

I know it's not my money... but d'ya know what? I would! 40% in Silver, 40% in Gold ... and maybe use the other 20% for trading - it'll give you a new hobby to learn, and if you're disciplined it could help buy you nice little presents for yourself or your family (or hell, a charity!) every now and again.

One of the keys to successful trading is to have a big enough "float" (or cash reserve) for the trades you make. 30k (GBP or EUR) should make a nice float and ensure you don't get cornered and wiped out with margin calls.

So, as we approach the end of the week, the big question - is the bottom in?

I noticed that during the "crashing period" of the past few weeks, Gold and Silver moved quite differently from each other at certain times.

This week they are almost in lock-step. Potentially this is due to the heavy USD movement having an impact on the price in $ but potentially could it also signal more measured, sensible, regular trading? (although I'm not quite sure what I mean by that!)

G&S graphs from the last three days - you could almost layer them over each other (and I suspect Steve might! )

Yes - how did you do that?

Just googled to find it, then pasted it in.

I have previously seen the behaviour you reported though. It's usually when linking to a site that has some potentially "dangerous" code in (ie some dynamic image generation sites). Not quite sure why you had issues with this URL and I didn't.

I tried to link to the st louis fed, but got this message "You have entered a link to a website that the administrator does not allow links to"

Was it this URL? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2?cid=29

Yesterday the stops were open ready to be triggered

Today there are no stops left to trigger

Absolutely 100% spot on.

Not even Jim Sinclair can explain this hell - he has banned trader dan from posting the technical massacre.

Not any more. New Trader Dan charts up right now.

The drop in Silver has my jaw on the floor.

I am trying to find out if there is a price level of gold which could create a sentiment of uncomfort, malaise, disbelief and panick among gold holders.

If you could answer some of my questions, this would really be helpful as you are a gold holder.

I don't think there is... but maybe your research will tell us.

Personally, I'm never going to sell my physical gold unless, in many years to come, I need the money and have no other sources of funding. I suspect I would stop buying more at around $750/oz. I've actually lost so much money trading gold that losses to my physical holding really don't bother me.

As for my trading - I hold very little paper gold right now (hence my lack of "bother" above). My plan is to buy some when it's low and sell it when it's high. For that to happen I have to be reasonably confident some upwards movement is on the cards. Right now that isn't the case. But it might be next week... or it might take a month... Or I might decide never to trade it again.

Has gold gone past exchange limits or something? This wide spread I have never seen before!

I don't know the source of your data - but is that really spread info? Or just period candles? If the latter, it shows unusually large volatility during the periods (5mins, 10mins, whatever they are).

Wanderer,

 

As you have no stops, is there any level - in the most impossible scenario - at which you would have to get out even if

you didn't want to?

fantastic ... Sorry to be blunt, but what is your obsession with people being so badly burned that they have to "get out"?

I suspect the level varies massively from person to person and from time to time. For any using easily tradable methods (vs physical holding) they may choose to exit and re-enter the market to a varying degree on a regular basis. As such, there is no "sell up" price.

Most people's opinion on when to sell will also based on the wider state of world economies, as such it's difficult to pick an exit price here and now.

I am kicking myself:

I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune,

Silly thinking, it turns out

I feel the same on the whole "sideways summer" thing. It was predicted by many who are extremely knowledgable in Gold, yet I chose, for some unknown reason, to worry about it but keep my positions open. Similarly with the August low. I knew it was likely but for some reason didn't go with that view.

Today's cost me about a twelfth what it would a month ago - so maybe I'm learning.