Bobsta

BTW... As you might see from the above quotes, I've changed my name (to protect the innocent).

Silver Sammy reckons we'll go to $4. What would that do to your innards?

Cue OPEC.

Who's "we" DrBubb? Maybe the Russians will save us. Crash2006 over at HPC seems to think so... LOL!

I listened to Friday's Financial Sense podcast on the way into London this morning (which I thoroughly recommend, BTW). I can't remember which guest mentioned it, but $775 was cited as an important level. Break below it and it signals the market is ignoring intervention and taking a short-term deflationary view (potentially until around year end). Go above it and take $850, and the intervention is being priced in and the market has realised we're in inflationary mode. I'm watching from the sidelines and staying clear of Silver for now - this is going to be interesting.

I know what you mean. Sometimes the markets are just plain confusing. - There'll be a change in UK interest rates and the pound won't move. OK - so the market had the move priced in. Fair enough - these traders are a savvy bunch. - But then there'll be an event like last weekend where Alistair Darling admits what anyone with half a brain already knew and BOOMF, GBP falls off a cliff. - Is it a big surprise that Fannie and Freddie would end up this way? I can't really tell from what the market's doing. - And why GBP so upbeat this evening? I suspect it just got over-sold last week.

Spot price feeds seem to be a bit knackered. IG has only just posted an update, so the chart looks like this: The futures price feeds seem OK though. Dec Silver did this (which is where I got the gap from): Not impressed by the fall-back though.

G&S doing very nicely. And yep, they both gapped up. Silver gapped up 40 cents on open. Conversely, GBP is rallying meaning gains in GBP won't be so good. And let's face it, we're only recovering part of what was lost on Friday, so not really time to get the rockets out just yet.

That's a very valid point GF! I try to do as much research as I can but often I find I can't see the wood for the trees. There's simply so much info out there, it's impossible for me to do my day job, have a home life and get round to reading and digesting everything that I need to try to work out what's going on right now. I guess that's why I enjoy GEI (and previously enjoyed HPC) because effectively you become part of a whole team of researchers, all reporting back concentrated, condensed, relevant findings. That's also why I welcome the contrarian views on the various PM threads. I fully appreciate that there's a core of posters who contribute far more to the community than I ever do - and I'm very thankful to them. What I want to be sure of is that as a team we're all not blindly following the wrong path. As I think we all agree, double-checking our logic on a daily and weekly basis is important. The recent CWR podcasts resulted in Dominic questioning/alterning his views on inflation/deflation - and that's healthy. What I want to be sure is that I understand (or at least get some pointers on where to go read up myself) why views are changing, and indeed if they are changing. The recent posts on this thread made me suddenly think "Hold on a sec, has there been a significant change in the community's view on Silver that I've missed?" and so I asked the question. Just to clarify, I talk of "the community" but I appreciate we're not running some kinda kibbutz here - it just seemed the easiest way to phrase my point I appreciate that, and FWIW it's clear that you do shed-loads of research - and I think you always make your views clear GF. I'm of a similar view and right now would say I'm more confident in Oil rising up from a low of ~$90 than I am of Silver. But since I have no Oil holdings (apart from half a tank of heating oil in my garden) that's not really helping me protect my wealth. I need to firm up my opinions on Silver. Fast. Friday shocked me. I'll summarise: - Appreciate all the research from everyone - Try to do my own too - Wondering if there's generally been a shift in expectations for Silver, these past weeks EDITed to include: DITTO! I will be looking to potentially buy a house in 2.5-4yrs (depending on how this all pans out). I have personal circumstances that mean whether or not that's an optimal time to buy, it is something I may need to do. I appreciate HPs are falling and previously wasn't confident at leaving cash in index-linked savings accounts. But honestly, I'd argue that a significant concensus on GEI (and research linked to those views) seems to point to that now being a credible option. Does GBP have further (down) to go? Probably. So transfer it all to EUR and stick it in German gov't bonds (as per cgnao's advice)? ... Maybe, but what if EUR is the next currency to fall off the cliff? Rock < > Hard-place

Sorry, I don't really understand that point. Are you saying that on 1st July you viewed Silver as a good short-term long trade, but as an investment over the next two years you don't? Or are you saying that with a long-term view, buying on 1st July wasn't such a bad idea, as in the long term you expect it to go higher? If so, I don't quite understand why if you fully expect it to continue falling in the medium term (6 months? 12 months?) you could take this position. Surely it's better to jump out now and back in later? I have a slight problem with the differentiation between trades and investment when it comes to PMs (which provide no yield). If I invest in something and I then take a view that it's not likely to perform well, I'll sell it. Does that make that "trading" rather than "investment"? I appreciate that no-one can accurately call tops and bottoms and am certainly not looking for this board to be a free tipster service... But as I said before, I sense in this case that people aren't saying "Don't worry, this is just a minor pull-back before a move upwards" - there is some very real talk of silver performing pooly (as an investment and a trade) for the forseeable future. And once again, I'd point out that I would *never* lambast anyone for stating an opinion that proves to be incorrect. I'm simply trying to understand whether folks' views have changed or not. In short, I need to help work out in my mind whether to sell all my Silver and look to re-buy in 1/2/3/6/9/12 months.. Or whether to view the current situation as a buying opportunity. Right now there seems to be a massive divergence in views - far greater than I've seen previously.

Hold on folks... have things really changed so much in just two months?!! ... and now just 66 days later: Now, I'm old enough and stupid enough to be responsible for my own decisions. But there appears to be complete 180 degree turn going on by some folks here. Saying something's a good investment at $17, and it falling to $13 isn't necessarily a problem if we believe the fundamentals are still in place and the fall is just a "minor setback". If the view is that the fundamentals have changed and it is more likely to be heading lower than higher in the medium term (the next 12 months) then that really is a monumental shift IMHO. A number of posters were converting gold to silver feeling silver was likely to move up quicker than gold. However, in the recent CWR interviews there was mention of "Gold is money - but Silver is just an industrial metal" ... which would certainly not be positive for silver. I just get the impression that there's a lot of confusion and head-scratching going on out there. Talk is cheap folks - and I think this needs to be acknowledged when posting. Saying "Wahey, I loaded up at $20, bought more at $16 and want it to go to $6" makes no sense whatsoever to me. Please note: this isn't a personal attack on any specific posters - I think it's something many of us are guilty of at times. I think there needs to be some acknowledgment that some significant money is on the table for a lot of folks here and real money is being lost! The fact that the pounds I'm losing are worth less than they were 2 months ago doesn't actually cheer me up that much.

OK, let me ask some dumb questions.. 1) The volume is huge - could that not mean this is one single seller? e.g. hedge fund liquidating? 2) If a large volume was sold short, surely it needs to be bought back at some point - no?

Indeed. But what's suddenly gone wrong with Silver? Someone liquidating a huge long position? Friday blues? Makes no sense given Gold's resilience.

It was over $13.10 earlier in the day... I had a limit order trip to sell some futures at $13.17... then bought back at $12.80. Feeling like a t1t now!! The movement's insane. Gold is having a very mild day in comparison!

Darn! I wish you hadn't said that. I wasn't going to take any action based on your earlier post (that'd be a bit nuts, frankly).... But it was sure as hell making me feel better!

Ahem. I think I agree with wrongmove - that sort of data is available pretty much anywhere on the net. Anyway, save yourself the trouble and just plot a gold chart in GBP. There's an easy one at Bullionvault - http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do (you'll need to pick GBP and your time period) Or a more complex one at StockCharts - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html...;GOLD:$XBP

See Frizzers' latest MoneyWeek article - bottom chart:

British Bulls seem to agree...

The way I look at things, I want the pound to bounce purely because it's so depressing to see my hard-earned cash wasting away. I don't intend trading gold in relation to GBP movements. My gold holdings are only a proportion of my savings and you can bet that whatever action you take it'll go the other way. IMHO significant Sterling appreciation isn't on the cards for a good few months and cashing in and out of gold on that basis isn't worthwhile. If you want to trade FX then trade it - but there are far more efficient methods than paying BV/physical dealing charges.

With my optimist hat on, gold was UP nearly $20 from 4hrs previous (when I made my original post). Look at (in particular) Silver's performance during the all-important New York trading session today: Incidentally, British Bulls are listing a WAIT on both gold and silver. I know I was somewhat skeptical last week but I have to admit that's quite an impressive performance: It'll be interesting to see what they make of tomorrow's action.

Commiserations! I can appreciate your pain (depending on what "loaded up" means to you - hopefully you've not lost the value of a house)... Today's action seems quite positive today... but I'd invite others with more experience to provide their input. Bubb and Cuthbert in particular - is this the bottom you were looking for? As an aside, I listened to last October's CWR on the train home tonight.... some of Paul Van Eeden's comments got me spooked... paraphrasing: "Whilst governments and central banks are using inflation to avoid recession, I'll hold Gold. But if this changes, and efforts to avoid recession begin to look like they're not working, it will be time to reconsider"

Nah. I can hope. But I fear I'd be wrong!

Silver at $12.83 ... blimey. Very tempting, even with the pound on the floor.

<MC Hammer> STOP! Shopping time!</MC Hammer> BTW, are we going to have a new September thread (Steve / Dr ?

SELL recommendation from British Bulls ... let's see what happens on open this evening.