harold bishop

I'd like to see a Bitcoin vs Gold chart. Seems the prices of gold is inverse to Bitcoin !

One acre of ground suggest it has, bit by bit, lost all of it's land. No doubt sold off for development over many generations which is a great loss to the house and means the place will be no good for a hotel. Maybe it could be used for offices but the cost of renovation / upkeep is beyond normal understanding. As for a private house, the updating and upkeep would sink all but hedge fund managers and it is doubtful they would choose to live outside of Belfast - nice as it is. If you could teleport it to 20 acres of Surrey countryside, then it would be worth millions. And to add to a buyer's woes, it is a Grade listed house. Shame, as she looks a grand old girl but not even the National Trust will be interested. My guess it will "fall down" and end up as a building plot.

Last year in the UK was awful for most veg becuase the endless wet weather. Hoping for better results this year. But finally pulled the last of the leeks. So far, I've planted shallots, garlic, onions sets and early, medium and late spuds. The rest of the plot is still covered with black horticultural sheeting which lets the rain through, warms the soil and stops weed seeds germinating. The rubarb is romping off now we've had a few warmer days and I reckon in a week I'll get a first crop for the table. The green house is chock full of sprouting seeds incl cauliflower, courgette, pumpkin, squash, leeks, tomatos, herbs, beetroot, radish, runner and french beans and others. They'll all go in the ground soon. I have invested in some horticultural fine netting which prevents bird damage, butterfly and other nasty flying bugs but transmits light and water. Also, I bought a very old but very good condition petrol motor tiller for £50 off Gumtree amd it works great ! And finally, the fruit trees are looking full of blossom about to open. Pears, apples, plums, crab apple & a peach. Mostly all planted last year and trained against an 7 foot south facing brick wall I had built last year. This all sounds a lot but it took a few weekends hard graft earlier in the year and now it should be a case of keeping on top of weeds, which can be done in on fine evenings. If we have a glut I'll buy another freezer but I give some away. If it's another rubbish year we'll still have enough for our selves.

Bugger, I'm away for a week. If this continues, I'm going to buy more. Just hope there isn't a massive re bound by next week.

Without seeing the numbers, I guessing that wouldn't raise much. It's likely most accounts, current and savings are less than E100,000, so, they 'taxed' them at thge lower rate.

Yep, same here. Wild pricing. I always buy the materials as the trade just put it on their account at a merchants and don't bother to shop around for any sort of deal. When you do this bit your self, you can spend a bit of time searching and looking for used or surplus stuff. Also, I only get a fixed price quote for the labour only with a very defined scope. And never, ever get them to design or think out something as that's a cash register for them. Finally, most are real cash hogs which leads too interesting discussions. I'm pretty handy at the building, joinery stuff etc and have most of the tools. So, I know when they are taking the piss.

Yes, I've seen the same and in fact I bought last year. Lending hasn't really dried up for those types of houses. They are not first time buyers and there is a goodly bit of equity built in these purchases. Volumes are down but as you say, houses are still selling, purely, because people/families just shrug their shoulders are getting on with it because short of emigrating, they have no choice. Many are paying very, very low rates of interest and many of those are interest-only with no meaningful capital repayment scheme. As we know, these lending policies have continued to support house prices when as every HPCer knows, they should have nose dived. I think the situation will continue, maybe for 10 years or more because its the only exit route for the very indebted It also allows the banks to maintain their "asset" values and threaten the government with the nightmare of mass repossessions, for which they are then periodically re-capitalised. In the meantime, in the real economy - because selling houses to each other is not a real economy - it is dire with very little investment or growth.

As I painfully know, the associated cost buying a house in the UK is very expensive. 4 % stamp duty is pretty normal. Add on legals, searches and removals can easily tot up to £30k for a pretty mundane family home in the south east. Just buying a house of the same value will increase the LTV, since, most buyers think they can just stick these costs on the mortgage. That game is over in a falling market. Another reason why mortgage holders are trapped and will have to sit things out. But of course the biggie is that LTVs only go up in a falling market. Absolute certainty for interest only loans and probably for many repayment loans as well.

And for those that say Gold is a load of bull..... They're right. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/one-of-world%E2%80%99s-tallest-skyscrapers-unveiled-in-rural-%E2%80%98village%E2%80%99.html

I feel I may have been somewhat responsible for the dip. Always seems to happen when I place an order.

And.. this is the type of housing market many have to face..

Yes, I agree but it will take more. If rates rise, they will, to some extent, be covered by SMI, Housing Benefit etc. Cutting Housing Benefit, Council Tax benefit, SMI etc will have a profound effect. Any government forcing these cuts through as policy would crash house prices and not be in the political wilderness. Just look at the "fiddling at the edges" regarding the 50 p tax rate !

People still move if they need to. They just rent out their houses and the rent covers the mortgage. I've got three UK examples here of friends: 1. A family, both parents get job offers and visas for Australia. Can't sell their newish estate house as zero interest. But many tenants lining up prepared to do annual leases at good rent level. 2. Another family, in or close to negative equity. Tried to move but the numbers don't work. Sitting tight and now paying down capital on a very low mortgage rate. 3. Another couple. Cash bought a lovely apartment in 2006. Now cash bought a house ( the apartment was always a stop gap until the right house turned up). Put the apartment up for sale, offers less than they paid, so, it is now rented at 6% gross. In all three cases, the houses are now off the market and will be for years and years. This is why I made my comment about there being no proper housing market as these examples are being replicated up and down the country. Add in the BTLers, many of who get the rent paid via Housing Benefit, the unemployed mortgagees who get SMI payments, continuing low interest rates etc, etc and the residual, real, "housing market" can stay pretty buoyant.

Maybe. The UK government's continuing support for housing needs to be factored in. I don't have the figures but the support is very broad. Housing benefit, SMI relief, Council Tax benefit, Tax Credits and benefit etc. Much of this is routed back, via BTL or mortgage holders to the banks which continues to support the house prices. Interest rate rises and loss of employment will be picked up by the state in one form or another. I've come to the conclusion, there really isn't a housing market anymore for the average Joe. Not in the sense we once knew it. BTLs are still adding to the empire with rents being pretty stable. House/mortgage holders not selling but extending or renting their houses and becoming tenants themselves if they need to move. House/mortgage holders becoming unemployed use SMI to sit tight. Forcing them out would cost the Gov more than paying a bit of interest. Divorcing couples remaining in the matrimonial home for financial reasons. It seems a few cash buyers and deaths now drive sales. I don't look at the technicals but I suspect a lot of the stats generated about the housing market are on pretty thin or unreliable data. Edit: Forgot to add. Stamp Duty at say 3% or 5% is a big chunk of cash to find just to move. Gone are they days of slapping it on the mortgage. Another reason not to sell/move but build and extension.

Even if, as you say, JD is sounding like and estate agent, so what ? Maybe he had very valid "alternative" views. And they should be heard and debated. They add value to this web site. I cannot disagree with much of JD reasoning and comments. The HPC lot are facing an monumental struggle against the establishment and I think they will lose. Everything the establishment throws at maintaining house prices may fail, then ultimately devaluation of Sterling will succeed. It worked before. Joe Public don't care about house prices vs Gold, Oil etc - only "The Pound in Your Pocket". To put my money where my mouth is, I'm about to exchange contracts on a UK house (Oxfordshire). Not at a knock down price but nothing is ! It'll see me out and I'll have no debt. Further, I'll have enough land to keep us in veg and honey and maybe trade a bit too. Am I buying at the peak, middle or bottom ? I don't know. It depends on the Sterling rate. The good thing is i'll keep my PMs in tact and will probably add to them in this current down turn.

Yep, me too. I really thought we would be seeing 1% per month drop in UK house prices in Sterling. It's not, it's glacial. It just isn't happening were I am. Decent family homes within reach of well paid jobs are still holding up. So, to get to G0ldfinger's sub 100 oz average house price, gold alone will need to make the moves as Sterling prices stagnate. And this is happening before our eyes. The Government's plan is panning out nicely. Add in future wage inflation, which I think is inevitable if necessities keep rising, then house prices will slowly loose their bubble status. Could take a decade or more. And HPC may as well close down their web site. What effect on the real economy ? More of the same. Savers being screwed over to bail out borrowers. Higher taxation and those with property are sitting targets.

Well, I think this is a useful excuse that they would like to believe. But I think their reasoning is rot. Sellers are pulling out of deals because they cannot add their MEW, stamp duty and agents fees to their new mortgage deal. This means, unless they are earning more and can borrow more, they cannot move to a house of the same price as the one they are selling. A £500,000 house is £25,000 in stamp duty, and maybe £15,000 in agents,lawyer and moving costs. Basically, it costs 8% to move to a same value house. LTVs are reducing not increasing, so, many vendors cannot afford to move - except downwards. My ex has had three sellers pull out and her cash/non chain offers were not insulting. Every reason was the same - the vendors could not afford to move.

Sorry to read that. Always enjoyed and frequently found your posts most interesting.

Well, that'll cheer up some folk. I'll wait for the land reg figures.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2011.pdf Nationwide index up 0.3% for May and up 0.6% 3 monthly. I think the May figure is seasonally adjusted but can't find the NSA. All on very low volume

ARRRG ! It feels painful buying at these prices. Britannias at Bairds are now over £1000 each !!!

Agreed. LR is becoming the most reliable index. London is still largely untouched but the outer regions of the UK are dropping nicely. It's peripheral shutdown and the nation is reverting to a house price structure of the past. Expensive in the South East and London ( and a few other areas) with the rest of the Uk being much cheaper. I always thought it ridiculous that Cornwall/West Wales etc could have houses prices the same as London. There were always valid reasons for the peripheral regions being cheaper. As you have pointed out, these prices are from the back end of last year, so, more of the same to follow.

Yes, I can believe that. Every house we have been interested in or bid on has gone to a cash buyer. I also understand 60% of houses in the UK are not mortgaged. Older folk downsizing, those sitting in rented with cash, overseas cash buyers and a smallish numer of very wealthy people will keep the market moving, albeit at smaller volumes. With very low interest rates being maintained, house prices will take a long, long time to drift down. And a long period of modest inflation will, in the end, bring house prices to a more normal relative level. I'm sure this is the gov/BoE plan. So long as the UK can maintain the confidence of the markets, the plan should hold togther. Which is why I'm now looking to buy.

And this is the problem. There simply isn't the volume of houses coming up for sale where I want to be in the South East of the UK. What few do come up are snapped up. I'm seeing another this today, not quite what I'm afetr but the right size and where I want to be. If I like it, I'll start at the asking price, in cash and be prepared to go up. It's a seller's market.

All to be taken with a pinch of salt. I viewed a house yesterday, more out of curiosity than anyhting as the area wasn't what I wanted. It last sold in mid 2005 for £290k. Nicely done up and now on at £500k. Told the agent I thought it was overpriced and was informed they have a firm, cash offer at asking price and were hoping to get more for the vendor. Viewed another when it came on the market a couple of weeks back in an area I want but house needs £80k spending on it. Called the agent today to have another look at it and was told I would be wasting my time. Two asking price offers slugging it out. Both cash. I'm in N Oxfordshire and this story is the same, time and time again. There are no price drops in the houses I'm looking at. In fact the reverse.