safebetter

Latest from James Turk @ GM: A message from the weak currency Looking at the long term charts gold is due a brief correction before resuming the upward trend (GBP & Euro), getting a bit ahead of itself! CGNAO - still think we are on for £720 by June, or was the run to ~£700 what you were calling? Long and strong. SafeBetter

Back from a self-imposed posting/reading ban!! An old broadcast of Philip Manduca from Jan 2009, but good to see him shooting down muppets on Bloomberg: SafeBetter

Interesting view DrBubb - are you thinking just a short term pull back? I guess for those of us who aren't trading it matters not. I'm just holding. Have you seen this interview from Tony Jensen of Royal Gold, he seems modestly bullish! Royal Gold's Jensen Sees Strong Precious Metal Demand Royal Gold's Jensen Sees Strong Precious Metal Demand (Video) SafeBetter

An update on gold in the public domain: This outfit were also in the city in May 2008. Unfortunately no doubt folks will be letting their coins etc go for well below spot. There were three different outfits advertising to buy gold in this weeks edition! How many others are seeing an increase in their home towns? SafeBetter

Nice balanced article: Highest Gold Value Ever Nice way of charting golds price value also: MOREAU Index SafeBetter

About as positive as the BBC get on Gold: Commodity price movements (Solid gold returns?) Text in brackets was the link from the main Business section. Interesting they are planning to chart this to June 2009, what do they/know expect? SafeBetter

I find this article from Bob Moriarty a bit flawed, am I missing something? Gold: Chaos on the Horizon? Invest in Real Assets If as he says the U.S. gets hyperinflation Zimbabwe style: "We’re going to go into Zimbabwe-type inflation where they’re printing off $200 million dollar bills to buy a loaf of bread." Then when he says: "The really bad gold stocks are going to move up 500%." Does that mean the final stock price will be Billions of worthless US$? Also does not seem to be what Jim Sinclair / Alf Field are thinking. Any views? SafeBetter

£720 by May 2009, the printing press must be running at 450' Fahrenheight, to just prevent combustion!! You could say we are already there: 1oz Gold Krugerrand SafeBetter

One for you G0ldfinger Goldfinger's number plate for sale SafeBetter

House prices: How low can they go? "As with many properties on the market this year, the sale of Hedgerow Cottage at Barrington, Somerset, has turned into an agonising Dutch auction. In the summer of last year, the four-bedroom detached house was on the market at just over £500,000. That was always over-ambitious, says Andrew Perry of Greenslade Taylor & Hunt (01460 57222), who took on the property in April at what he regarded as a more realistic price of £475,000. Nevertheless, he never imagined that he would still be trying to sell the property in November, now with its price slashed to £395,000 – exactly the same price for which it sold for new in March 2005. " 20% in just over a year, some of these properties fuelled by city money will be hit hard. South West UK already leading the % drop tables. "One who thinks so is Jonathan Davis, chartered financial planner with Armstrong Davis and spokesman for the cult website www.housepricecrash.co.uk, where those who stayed out of the property boom go to gloat. A few months ago, commentators on the housing market were lining up to pour scorn on his dire predictions. Kirstie Allsopp even called his website "sick". Now, Davis admits he has been wrong about the housing market – but only in as much as it is in a worse state than he had thought. "In April 2007 I said I thought prices would fall by 25 per cent from peak to trough," he says. "By October 2007, I increased that to 35 per cent. Now, I think prices will fall by 40 to 50 per cent, and the market will not reach a bottom until 2011." Davis has come up with a new theory on property prices. "Historically, London property has tended to be advantageously priced when the average home is worth 300 ounces in gold," he says. "That has been true for decades. Take the early 1990s crash, for example. In 1993, when the market in London reached the bottom, gold was worth about £225 an ounce. Three hundred times that is £67,500, which is about the same as the average London property at the time. At the moment, gold is around £575 an ounce. Three hundred times that is £172,500." By contrast, the average London property in October, according to the Land Registry, was £328,927 – suggesting that, according to this theory, prices have a long way to fall, unless, of course, the gold price rises. So should we all be waiting for the moment that the average London house price is aligned with 300 ounces of gold, and then pile in? It isn't that easy, he says, as gold prices tend to work on a 20-year cycle and property on an 18- to 20-year cycle. In any case, Davis believes, it might be worth hanging on to your gold. "In spite of the falls this autumn, the gold price is on a long-term bull run, which started in 2000." Pity HPC'ers didn't like us to talk about it though on their site!!! SafeBetter

Why does that surprise us, it shouldn't - any excuse to spin the numbers in their favour is welcomed by BoE and VI's. I recently did some digging into the contents of the 'basket of goods' that make up RPI/CPI and was alarmed at how many what I termed non-core household expenses were in there, the numbers are just fudged by unjust weightings to hide the real increases. SafeBetter

Hi Rikk03 - I've dipped my toe into OILB as have a few others on this site. Do you use some kind of Forex account for currency plays? SafeBetter

More comedy and bullish views from Mr Manduca: Manduca Forecasts Commodities `Boom,' Gold Up to $2000 Again he turns to camera and says "Mr Brown is doing as I asked him and has lowered interest rates" Very down on Mervyn King, backing Blanchflower in MPC. Synopsis: Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Philip Manduca, head of investments at ECU Group, talks with Bloomberg's John Dawson about his forecast for the U.K. economy, the pound and a commodities ``boom'' from 2009 to 2011. (Source: Bloomberg) 00:00 Sees BOE rate cut of 1.25 percent in December 02:24 U.K. unemployment, economy, pound, equities 07:09 Sees pound rising next year, euro decline 07:50 Dollar rally coming to an end, bullish on £ against $ in 2009 09:35 Expects commodity boom 2009-2011, China 12:05 Food commodities, equities at "fair value" 12:45 Oil demand, sees gold price rising to $2000 13:30 Not soup kitchens and 25% unemployment 14:49 Quantative Easing 15:40 If gold breaks anywhere above $800 – look out! Running time 15:51 Not sure I agree with his £ vs. $ views, I think more of the race to the bottom of $1=£1=1Euro - thoughts? SafeBetter

Peter Schiff has just been on Bloomberg tonight on FinalWord, so keep an eye out for the video, worth the watch. In the meantime until I can find the link here are some notes I took: - Sees a blood bath in bonds - Bonds in bull market since 1980’s - Bond performance will move back to 1970’s levels - dollar index to 40, possibly 20?! - Treasury may not default, but they will pay you back in junk bonds, AAA rated or not (they are hyper inflating), sub-prime was AAA - 5 to10 years left in this bear market - Stocks to lose 90 of real value (against gold) may retain nominal value in $ terms - Gold between $4000-$6000 (not able to be firm on timescale) - US needs a recession & some retail pain / need to shrink the sector / stop throwing more debt at it - US need to start saving / start withdrawing equity/using credit - US need to start manufacturing - Creditor countries will slow/stop loans to US The other two guys (Jack Malvey, Barclays Capital & Pado – Cantor Fitzgerald) in the interview look at Peter like he's from another world SafeBetter

Boy you guys and gals are quick on the draw with posts!! Here is the edited (slightly shorter YouTube version): http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=pGHODRNJqRo Predicted $1000 pog this year – and it did Predicts $2000 for 2009 SafeBetter

China Gold Rush? http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1 Whole article is worth putting here as there are so many good snippets: "The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard. Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said. China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year. The US government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value of the greenback and on government bond yields. The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23 billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89 billion. Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said. Until now, the United States has had little choice but to issue massive amounts of debt to fund its deficits, and China has had little choice but to purchase it, as there are not many markets deep enough to absorb the mainland's US$30 billion to US$40 billion in monthly capital inflows. Government officials involved in the management of China's reserves are beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time - in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed. "It's the right time to increase the gold reserves, as the price is about US$710 to US$720 per ounce," said Wan Guoli, vice secretary general of the China Gold Association. (Do they Chinese see this as the bottom?) The International Monetary Fund has made reducing global payment imbalances one of its priorities in the aftermath of the financial tsunami. "I think China probably will expand its strategic reserves into commodities during this downturn," said a Hong Kong-based strategist. (which they are doing in oil also http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=ema...id=aku3hyO64O9M) "China will continue to buy treasuries ... otherwise the system would get distorted," he said. "But I think China will diversify its reserves." Just makes you realise how small the worlds total researves are now in $ terms compared to this credit tsunami - will only take a small swing in reserves diversification to move the price upwards resulting in untold rocket posts!!!! SafeBetter

More gold manipulation acknowledgement: http://gata.org/node/6876 Will it end in Dec when the Comex can't deliver - not long to find out SafeBetter

The words scapegoat spring to mind! Run on the pound Bullish for gold in £turdling? We'll see Monday am! G0ldfinger - your prediction of £1=$1 may be coming sooner than we think? SafeBetter

Which country is next to annouce they are also making the move? Iran switches reservers to gold SafeBetter

Thanks bigtbigt. That's one hell of a potential upside: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...welve_month.stm Might use some of that dry powder! Sorry this is off topic! SafeBetter

I'll second that Ker. I'm assuming your Kernull on Axstones GIS thread as well. Several on there have been rubbishing your daily/weekly forecasting, stick to your guns. Keep it coming - top stuff - even though I'm not trading I admire someone who can make the calls in this environment!! SafeBetter

More Manduca, man if he ran for PM of the UK - I'd vote: http://monitor.socialpicks.com/article/f/3...ortfolio-part-1 I just love the way he turns to camera and tells Gordon Brown what he has to do!!! Class!!!! SafeBetter

bigbigt - what vehicle are you using to buy oil? SafeBetter

Folks, keep the faith As G0ldfinger states, don't follow the nano news, stick with the big picture - it's tougher than we all thought, but hang tough! Here's a positive outlook for you all: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=887922116&play=1 If you don't want to watch it all go to 04:00. Philip Manduca again, he's been long on gold for years, and his play is going to come off. This is from 13/10, Monday after the recent highs. He is calling $650-$850 as buying opportunity. The more I see of him the more I think he is right, we are seeing some deflationary deleveraging/liquidation, but the CB's are going to over reflate, POG will go to right where we want it, possibly more! SafeBetter

Not seen this ratio discussed before: Gold/nickel ratio may slip due to recession 'This would imply the nickel to gold price ratio could fall to between 7 and 12. This would tend to indicate that either gold prices have to rally significantly above $1,000 an ounce or nickel prices are set to fall towards $8,500 a tonne.' Which one is going to slip? Surely it has to be the industrial metal? Thoughts? SafeBetter