safebetter

Which is why it will go through the roof with Bretton Woods II I have to vent my spleen here and say that Gordon Brown seems to be revelling in the attention he is getting right now. Anyone see the press conference where a pager/mobile rang and he made a joke saying "is that another bank going down!" - the man is a joke - only 12 months ago he was saying how strong the economy is - what short memories people have - why can't the masses see through these puppets? Vent over. SafeBetter SafeBetter

Hi Catflap - good find on the contracts. I just spotted that the report from 'marketforceanalysis.com' was for Oct/Dec 2007. $1200 or ~ £700 - nice!! SafeBetter

From over at http://www.maxkeiser.com/ - some good articles on here. Worth checking once a week. Is Switzerland the next Iceland? All this talk of gold confiscation and BV perhaps not being as immune as Goldmoney & the rock solid Swiss nabbing gold from secure holdings if UBS/Credit Suisse go down, makes you think/wonder. Don't really fancy moving 60% of my stash to GM though, not in this market - will just about get trashed! I thought confiscation in the 1930's was 'compulsory purchase' i.e. you will be forced to sell, not lose all - correct me if I'm wrong. BTW - what a week!! I did think @ £548 about selling a 1/3, but given the spreads and the volatility thought better of it!! What will this coming week bring, market freefall arrested, not sure it is.......... SafeBetter

Good article: Treasuries and Gold Rise as Global Credit Freeze Prompts More Bailouts More Sarkozy/Bretton Woods: Sarkozy says free-market economy at an end Crisis flags end of free market: Sarkozy Am I barking up the wrong tree here folks? SafeBetter

Nice action today Anyone picked up on this: Sarkozy & Bretton Woods Revival? "Mr Sarkozy said its task would be to revive the current finance system set up at the Bretton Woods Conference 60 years ago, which created the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank." Doesn't seem to have had much air time? Time for a modernised Gold Standard? Gold certificate ratio? SafeBetter

Market comment from Philip Manduca from 02/09/08: Video here - Manduca Says Pound Can Plunge; Oil Below $100, Gold Down Article with video link and timings synopsis here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a2.4vBY_P6pw 00:00 U.K. government response to economic problems 03:19 "Difficult" to tell how much pound will fall 03:56 Brown needs to "get money into this economy" 05:14 Possible "cataclysmic waterfall" for pound 05:42 Pound could "easily" fall to low $1.70s 06:31 Bank of England policy makers "snookered" 08:39 Pound and Swiss Franc: "we got it wrong" 09:25 Sees oil at $80-100, Chinese stockpiles 10:53 Outlook for gold, U.S. dollar and economy 12:59 ECB rhetoric and German wage negotiations 13:44 "There's no inflation threat, get this clear" Like all this stuff apart from the last bit on inflation - he seems to contain his argument to High Street goods - which I think to an extent is true, retailiers are liquidating there stock to move it. He misses the point on food stuff commodities. Other than that I think Mr Manduca always offers forthright views worth listening to. SafeBetter

Some light relief and.........sound advice: Buy Gold Long and strong SafeBetter

This guy is great: Predictions......... Afshin Rattansi: Just on the matter of gold, it hit a one month high. It's traditionally seen as that investment of choice during wars. Is it the same indicator or is oil a better bet? Max Keiser: I brought you some gold Afshin, I'm going to send this to you. One troy ounce of gold to put in your pocket and carry around with you as this crisis unfolds. Afshin Rattansi: It's probably illegal. Max Keiser: But gold is poised to break out on the upside again. It is the commodity of choice for those that are looking for a safe harbor. It has been selling off over the past few months because the Central Banks and the commercial banks and the investment banks have large short positions in gold trying to keep the price down, but they don't have inexhaustable finances to carry something like that out. So gold is really breaking out on the upside and we're looking for gold to get through the $1000 barrier again, on its way to two and possibly three thousand dollars an ounce. Afshin Rattansi: Finally, back to what you were saying about how the Fed seemed to have them in an unwinnable situation. Does that mean that oil futures will just continue to rise and that the Fed has no options on the table to be able to stop it because that too will mean political problems for political parties in Europe and the United States? Max Keiser: Absolutely. The chart of oil, if you look at it more technically speaking, going back a few years oil has been on an upswing, but it's stayed within a very defined channel. If you can imagine that on its upswing. The price today broke out of that channel on the upside, which, if it stays above the 141/142 level, you could see panic buying into the 150/160 level. Which would create unbelievable dislocations in the global markets and this would result in some, I think, urgency on the part of various world governments to take some action. They are now trying to blame speculators for this problem, but the speculator in this equation is Ben Bernanke. He speculated with the future of the dollar. He lost. And now the results are in the price of oil. Afshin Rattansi: But, surely, a war with Iran would increase oil prices and make things worse for all those banks, so perhaps it's not in the interest of Wall Street? Max Keiser: Goldman Sachs now has the biggest oil position in America and probably one of the biggest oil positions in the world. They're long oil. So the banks have aggressively been buying oil on their balance sheets. I think they might see this as a way to bail themselves out of this mortgage crisis. By hedging themselves by buying oil. They have, remember the shadow banking system, Afshin, which is not talked about widely, but it's the back channel, special investment vehicles and conduits that exist between banks - it's roughly a ten trillion dollar market which is unregulated and unreported. All this paper in the shadow banking system, ten trillion dollars, is at risk of going bad. Which would mean that every major bank in the US is technically insolvent. So if they could get oil to a higher price and they are long oil, maybe this is how they are going to bail themselves out? You know policy is driven purely in self interest. The Federal Reserve Bank and the commercial banks and the Wall Street banks are not acting in the interests of the population at large, they're acting purely in their own self-interest, which is a shame because they're actions dictate the reality for 300 million Americans. But they don't see it that way, they see it only as a way to preserve their own self-interest. SafeBetter

Bit more research on Max Keiser: http://www.gata.org/node/5115 The more I listen to Al Jazeera the more I think they have a less biased via of the (western) world. http://www.maxkeiser.com/ Have we posted on this guy before? Don't recall his name but he seems on the money, comments? SafeBetter

Some interesting commentary tonight on Al Jazeera (English), Max Keiser on commenting about where next for the markets and the US: Lehman bankruptcy and financial meltdown Host: Off live to Paris now. Max Keiser who is a financial journalist is there to join us now. Matthew was talking about who is going to be next. There will be more casualties do you think? Max Keiser: Oh, of course. This was entirely predictable. As we’ve been predicting on these broadcasts actually. The neoliberal model which means that credit is available for almost free. Suddenly last summer credit was unavailable and then banks that need credit to live started to tumble. So this is gaining pace. There’s going to be no credit for banks because you’re talking about $700 trillion worth of debt in the global economy. The entire GDP of the world is something like $60 trillion, so this has a long way to go as you deflate all of this debt back into something that is more sustainable. But that number is a long way from here. Host: What’s the doomsday scenario, Max? Max: It’s not a doomsday scenario if you are in a developing country and you’ve got stuff, like oil in the Middle East; or if you’ve got huge savings like they do in China. It’ s only a doomsday scenario in America and Britain that have been living on borrowed money for generations. It’s a doomsday scenario for them. It’s a happy day for people who have savings, who have money, who have cash, who have stuff, who have oil, who have resources. There’s a decoupling in the wind. America is essentially finished as a global economic power. The US dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency. And we’re going to see now some other country rise up and takes its place. Most probably China. Host: So the end of the world as we know it . . . Max: You seem stunned. Host: I’m stunned? Yes, of course, I am stunned. You said there was going to be a financial shift. That countries that aren’t rich at the moment are going to become rich. That those people who have money, only a little bit, are going to become a great deal richer. That those people who have pensions are going to lose out. It is the end of the world financially as we know it. It’s a new world coming. Max: Look, George Bush himself, only a few weeks ago, said that the problems on Wall Street, is that Wall Street bankers were drunk. That’s a direct quote. It’s true. They’ve been drunk on easy money. Alan Greenspan, who you just profiled on the show, he is the number one supplier of cheap booze to this bacchanalia of credit and debt by keeping rates artificially low. And the developing world has been crying about this and screaming about this for decades. It’s completely unfair, you know. Trade is unfair. The US has the reserve currency. The US has dollar hegemony. Now the tables are turned. The US is on the receiving end of a huge problem that they themselves made. So, again, I say for the developing countries, there will be a period of adjustment but on the other side of this, you’re going to find developing countries winning because they have resources. The price of those resources is going to go up. The dollar is a short term harbor of safety. Trust me. Anyone buying the dollar today is going to be sorry that they did. Short term US Treasury bonds similarly. Once the primary trend resumes, the dollar goes down, US Treasuries go down. Foreign currencies go up. Oil goes up. And we’re going to see a new world order. Not to be overly dramatic about it but even Francis Fukuyama, who is a very famous philosopher in America, who called the end of history when the Berlin Wall came down - incorrectly - he is very good with the bon mot every now and then. He’s talking about a post America world and I think that’s true. America’s role as the driver of the global economy is finished. Max talks about where will money in the markets now go......commodities, foods, oil and gold SafeBetter

Interesting day, oil down, potential fed cut (although some are now discounting this) and gold holds out - are we decoupling? Talking heads on Bloomberg even started talking about "is there too much blood on streets and should we be looking to safe havens?". Interesting article from Paul Mason: Is this December 1930? Folks we are seated at the restaurant at the end of the financial universe SafeBetter

Is this a good omen or not? Gold will shine after dark times This appeared on Friday, brought a smile to my face as even the media naysayers are calling the bottom Long and strong folks!!! SafeBetter

No way. I'm not leveraged - so a bit like a house, you only lose IF & WHEN you sell. Has the recent drop been unnerving, you bet, more than I could have possibly imagined - stomach renchingly sick in fact. I tend to agree with Jim Sinclair that if you read & watch too much on this ride you'll send yourself mad! This is a long game, not a short game. I really admire those folk who have the time and skill to making money out of trading the PM's, but the latter is not for me - I surely would be washed out in a short time. The recent drop actually prompted me to buy more @ $810 just before the last drop. Am I worried - no not really - I have faith. I had faith when I got out of BTL Q1 2004 (only small time - 2 x properties) - but I did ok. At the time people said I was mad to sell at that point in time. I was doing my research - they were watching Location, Location, Location. I was happy with the profit I had made and was happy to sit tight until I found something else. Properties near me did not really move much after the end of 2004, so yes perhaps I lost a bit, but I'm happy with my timing. As I've said on here before my only regret is not getting into gold early enough, 2004 would have been ideal, but with hindsight investment we'd all be kickin back in the caribbean I've taken all my financial investment/management into my own hands. Most of the IFA's out there don't have a clue - they just have a standard bag of low/medium and high risk portfolios for you - and they cream off an easy % for doing nothing. If I lose any money now - the buck (or Turdling as GF puts it) stops with me. If ultimately I had to take a loss - then so be it - will just have to work harder to make up the deficit - nobody ever got anywhere without a calculated risk. In fact I think gold is helping me become less risk averse - will have to change my name!!! SafeBetter

http://seekingalpha.com/article/90247-cont...-and-financials Interesting article if you've not seen it already: The U.S. Dollar and Gold - The dollar posted a surprise rally in the past week, after European central banks signaled that they would not raise rates. The story goes that the move is bearish for the Euro and therefore bullish for the dollar. The dollar bulls have been looking for any reason for a rally. A dollar run from 71.50 to 76 in a matter of days, solely on this news and in the face of declining wages and the highest inflation figures in a quarter of a century? Gold, which has an inverse relationship with the dollar, lost $100 alongside the dollar run. All of this while a new war rages at the border of Russia, which could easily widen and become much more dangerous. We also have reports of a massive U.S. naval armada heading for Iran. The dollar is now incredibly overbought and gold is extremely oversold and resting on key support at $850. The massive debt, economic ills, negative real interest rates, deficit spending and aggressive foreign policy of the United States has not changed. There is no fundamental reason for a dollar rally of this magnitude and it will not last. This is likely the last buying opportunity for gold under $900. SafeBetter

This would certainly cause an spike in POG: http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/...s-for-iran.html Similar to the situation with Iraq, back them into a corner with only one option. It's one helluva task force - gonna need plenty of oil for that lot. If I'm honest it is not really the way I want to see gold rise, off the back of a war SafeBetter

Axstone is calling the bottom: "BOTTOM IS IN PIGS FLEW FOR A DAY.. " Also: "Cyclist who has a thread on kitco also says today is the "fulcrum day," his term for a reversal. He also said the gold market would bottom in the third week of august, and he says this is the third week. He made the prediction about the third week in august several months ago, when the gold market was doing well. He has his share of misses, but he also called August 16 or 17th, I forget which day it was, as the bottom last year, and it was a horrible panic bottom, but he was right. He made that call several months in advance. fwiw.." https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=85&page=889 What do we think? I was going to buy more at $860, glad I didn't. Dosh sat cosily in BV....... SafeBetter

Is there to be a return to a 'Gold Standard'? UK mulls mortgage market options Look right at the bottom of the article: "This is one of a number of other options outlined in the interim report, which also includes industry-led initiatives to facilitate the development of a "gold-standard" for mortgage-backed securities." Also from Jim Sinclair: By turning mortgages into securities, lenders created vast distances between homeowners and their mortgage holders, who can be anywhere in the world such as Australia. US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. Write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are in the cards. That guarantees the USDX at .6200 and more likely at .5200. That guarantees gold to reach at least $1650 much sooner than I anticipated. This strongly suggests that my estimate of $1650 is significantly below the price of gold coming soon. This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system. The greatest economic crime ever committed is OTC derivatives. Those that proffered these will have killed more people than most wars. This is it and it is NOW! SafeBetter

America's house price time bomb More and more in the news at the moment informing the masses that we ain't out of the woods yet and it's gonna get worse! "The losses for the financial system from people walking away could be of the order of one trillion dollars when the entire capital of the US banking system is only $1.3 trillion. "You could have most of the US banking system wiped out, so this is a total disaster." SafeBetter

Which Juniors? Gold is going to $1200 in 2008. · Gold is going to $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. · The US dollar is going to USDX .5200 · Gold is getting ready for its third attempt at $1000. · The so called dollar rally is a total joke. · The junior gold shares sector are where the shorts are the greatest and the bargains the best with good companies looking at 1000% gains from today's lows. Anyone have any idea which Juniors is Jim Sinclair referring to? I know DrBubb likes Royal Gold many like Yamana. Comments welcome. SafeBetter

Some great charts (and funny pictures) being posted here on Axstones notes technical and fundamental analysis on GOLD on GIM. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....66&page=372 Also interesting Cup & Handle link: http://www.free4him.org/dougblog/index.php Has it formed or failed? SafeBetter

Question for you all. When Jim Sinclair says sell on a 'Rhino Horn' and buy on a 'fishing line' - what kind of time period do you think we are looking at? Are there some good examples we can look back at? Any info/thoughts appreciated. SafeBetter

Gold getting whacked or what! Just remind ourselves: Do Not Fear or even: Posted On: Tuesday, July 22, 2008, 7:09:00 PM EST Jim's Mailbox Author: Jim Sinclair Dear Jim, I get such a kick out of how the price of gold can run up over $100 in 14 days and no one in the media makes a comment. We then have a $22 drop and they start playing the funeral music. Whenever the "financial experts" are trashing gold it makes me that much more committed. Thanks so much for helping us all keep our heads when all about us are losing theirs. CIGA Buz SafeBetter

Good point GF - never really thought of it like that. There has to be downside for the western banks though if they are no longer hording the quantities they used to? SafeBetter

"In fact, in theory gold should not be expected to track such events. The main reason is because bank failures are essentially deflationary events because money is destroyed. If government steps in to guarantee deposits, it is essentially a zero sum game as far as inflation-deflation is concerned. Yes, I know some argue that gold goes up in a deflation but note that gold could not even stay up during the milder disinflation of the 1980s and 1990s. No, there is only one main reason why people should hold gold and that is inflation. We have it and it is here to stay for a long time. That is why the price of gold is going up and I submit that this has a lot more to do with the price of gold than any number of bank worries we have seen." Gold and the Credit Crunch Obviously agree with inflation bit, what do we think about the comments on bank failures being 'zero sum' events and not affecting POG? If I recall gold hit $1034 when the Bear Stearn mess unwound SafeBetter

The Dow-Crash, The Dollar, Gold and WAR! Interesting read, edging a bit towards NWO (New World Order) territory. Obviously no timescale, perhaps not even in our lifetime i.e. 50-100 years away? Would kind of fit given talk of the Amero - still sometime off though IMHO Gold news has gone extremely bullish again, two and three fold increases been punted about from various sources. Interesting quote from Jim Sinclair, this train at stopping at the $1000 station!!! "Dear Friends, There are two subjects of extreme importance today. I sent you an email months ago saying, “This Is It.” 1. I am now telling you, “It Is Now.” Gold is preparing for an assault not on $1000, but for a brief penetration of $1200. Violent chopping will occur, then off it goes to $1650. This violent chop we have been living in here and now will resolve itself very soon and the take will be seen by history as having occurred in this last formation HERE AND NOW. 2. Where your juniors are concerned please give equal attention to the fundamentals before you make any decision. When beaten down, as they have been, think about gold at $1200 and $1650 coming sooner than anyone expected." Wow! SafeBetter