lardoon

Idea:

 

Could someone not start a "Gold Bug" Hedge fund, leverage it way up (if that's still possible), and arm it with a single strategic plan to buy ETFs on a single day and demand physical delivery, i.e. unwind the gold carry trade. Perhaps if a hedge fund isn’t the right vehicle to do this then an organized internet mob could be used...

I _think_ it has been made impossible by regulations limiting the amount of physical delivery off the COMEX...

UBS cited evidence that the jewelry market is weak, continued central bank selling of gold - implying that the banks think it is expensive - and the lack of any direction from hedging and dehedging activity.

Do you think Gordon thought Gold was expensive wwhen he sold his Gold??

On another note I wanted to quote some of Jon Nadler comment today (http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jul082008A.html) mentioning the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI)

Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HGNSI stood at 64.3%.

 

That's the highest level for this sentiment gauge since March, when gold bullion was above the $1000 level. At that time, the HGNSI rose to a marginally higher level of 65.4%. Over the six or so weeks following that reading in March, of course, gold bullion fell by more than $100 per ounce. To put this contrast another way: The average gold timer is, for all intents and purposes, just as bullish today as when an ounce of gold bullion was trading for more than $100 more. This suggests that the gold timers are more accurately described as being stubbornly bullish than as pessimistic.

 

The HGNSI's record high, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, is 90%, or just 25 percentage points higher than where it stands now. That means that the majority of the in-and-out traders that affect the shorter term trends are already invested in the gold market; relatively few of them remain on the sidelines to propel the market higher by turning bullish in the future.

 

Another way of putting this: Risk in the gold market is at above-average levels right now.

He seems to have a point (to me anyway)

Anybody know how to track this HGNSI and how often it is published?

Another point that makes me sceptical of a dramatic and imminent PoG rise is the hanging oil price cool-down which should have a negative effect on Gold...

My 2 cents - I think we are still due for some range-bound trading with some more downside risk (but what do I know! )

David Morgan sees signs of short covering in PM stocks

Today, Thursday June 5, 2008 I noticed that gold was down on the day and yet gold stocks were up. Silver actually had a rather positive day overall and many silver equities were up two to three percent on the day. Normally, when gold is off even slightly and gold stocks show mild strength it is a result of short covering. In fact this is most likely the cause of today’s price action.

Earning season is here and many of the producers have reported very good margins, far superior to what they reported last year during the first quarter. The market is taking a big yawn at this excellent news and we need to comment. It is only a matter of time before Wall Street wakes up to the fact the many of the leading gold and silver companies are making profits. Earnings drive stock prices eventually, so the point is simply that these earnings will not be ignored forever.

Some are still of the opinion that the correction is almost over and we can expect to see silver and gold move toward their recent highs in short order. We do not see that taking place and expect at least a three to six month corrective phase to develop. This is the time to build or accumulate stocks you favor.

One of the clearest signs that the bottom is complete will be the precious metal mining equities refusing to move down further in spite of the fact the metals themselves may continue to find lower prices. In other words, I fully expect to see the mining stocks form a bottom before the metals themselves.

FULL Article:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/morgan/jun092008.html

Silver is truly deranged today, started selling off well before gold and has now gone in completely the opposite direction again. It's already recovered all of it's earlier losses and is still gaining ground

Yes - I noticed that also. I havent run any stats but I regularly watch the Gold/Silver ratio and I find it quite rare to see it go up significantly (from around 53.4 this morning to 52.5 now) in a down day for gold..

could it be about to do something special to the upside?

yes pls that'd be great...