mattyboy

er - Gold's going up in GBP at the moment!

I'm not sure I could get through that What are your thoguhts on Juniors? I have a few, I think a number of them might die if what you describe above comes to pass..

I suspect many of you already subscribe to the Daily Reckoning newsletter, but I thought I'd share this from today's:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans..._just_beginning hang in there guys!

Cheers GF - don't worry, I have got nothing on margin mostly physical with BV and Perth Mint. Also worth noting (ss someone else pointed out) that the US$50 drop from 930 to 880 is actually about AUD$10. Sometimes it is nice to get a bit of reassurance tho! It does sh!t me the way the juniors behave - seemingly on a downward ratchet, they plummet when gold goes down but the upward movements just don't seem to keep pace! I am not really a TA advocate and I am not trading any of my positions - fundamentally, what has just happened? The Fed's statement is more doveish (slightly) than the last. They are sticking with -ve real rates for the foreseeable and we all know what that has meant in the past!

thanks Steve!

I'm with Bob and Justin - I got a bunch of gold earlier on but loaded up again in March at 980 which took my average in to about where it is now. I am wearing +50% losses on more than 50k of Juniors - my silver is above water but that's about it. I'm getting my confidence shaken a bit atm - more so than the big drop in March - today was a total bloodbath for the Aussie juniors with -10% and more across the board! Double baggers required everywhere just to break even for me - I need a virtual group hug and some reassurance please!

I couldn't agree more - 10, 20, 50 even $100 either way will not make much difference in the long run if this bull run has the legs we think it does. I have not tried to trade any of it although I have to admit watching the drop from $1030 back to $850 was less than heartening - but I did manage to load up on a bit more at that price! I know Jim says we'll go mad if we watch the tape all day - but it is fascinating isn't it? Looks like the PPT are struggling a bit atm!

Here they go!

I have heard that it is rather good - next time you see "ground partridge" on the menu, give it a try!

I wonder how much it would suit the politicians to blame a bit of this inflation on the greed of the workers pay 'demands' (the cheek of it!) p.s. silver up over 2% on US open - I'll probably need to edit this with a 'famous last words' later !

true - and you may well be right but I suspect all of these mechanisms may be at work. The wage demands I can see coming as a result of the price inflation - I am interested in how much the wage increases themselves feed back into the price inflation - ie just how well established this feedback mechanism is. We know the cause of the inflation we are seeing now is not wages (in the UK at least) - and the money has to come from somewhere.

I believe the definition of inflation is expansion of the money supply? Your argument in bold would apply equally to goods price inflation. I don't voluntarily pay more for something than I have to, but there is more money chasing the resource, the price goes up. Whether that resource is a packet of crisps or an hour of labour the same mechanism is at work. Of course there are other reasons than monetary inflation that drive price increases.

Peter Schiff made an interesting point in one of his recent radiocasts - last weeks maybe. He questioned the wage-price spiral mechanism itself. His point being that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, prices go up as a result - wages are simply the price of labour. That we see wages and goods prices rise at the same time is no coincidence nor evidence of a wage-price spiral, just evidence of an increasing money supply. I'd be curious to know what people think of that idea, and whether there is real evidence out there for the wage/price feedback mechanism - given that we know that inflation itself is simply an increase in the money supply. The union thing Goldfinger touched on - I agree completely. People comment on the weakness of the unions now but we have had a couple of cushy decades. I wouldn't underestimate the UK population - when they see the need to get off their backsides they will (eventually). matt

I haven't listened to the podcast but I can only assume it refers to the Irish referendum to ratify the treaty of Lisbon, which took place yesterday (Thursday) - presumably the result will be known on Friday. I would be interested in what this guy thinks the result will mean for the Euro->USD->GOLD?

wrt to the comments on the perth mint - some people have apparently complained about delays of delivery of unallocated metal. There is some discussion on topic here http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1211570804.php and Peter Schiff addressed the issue during his radio broadcast this week. I am invested with Perth mint certificates and inclined to believe their explanation, that this is a production (as in fabrication) delay broadly resulting from them having to melt down 1000 ounce bars to cast them into something smaller. The talk on silverseek seems over dramatic to me but I would welcome other's opinion on this. At the moment I am inclined to believe that the WA government is a pretty solid debtor. matt

I know its not gold but any thoughts on this article on silver from the wsj? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1210980877..._we_banner_left its the first thing I've read suggesting a diminishing industrial demand, and not a lot of mention of silver's value as a currency.

not to mention the counterparty risk. Gold apart from the possible speculative gains that we are all hoping for is first and foremost an insurance policy. If my counter-party has gone tits-skyward by the time my call is in the money, I'm no better off - in fact, I'm $20k down The other point of course is that gold's price tends to increase more than the corresponding drop in the $ - otherwise there would be little point. The inflation adjusted peak of 1980 shows that we could be 100%+ up with the dollar where it is at the moment. edit:grammar

Chris - congrats! Yes that was quite a spread which is what got me thinking thanks for the replies guys - I notice that the liquidity is back right now. Actually the fact that you are on a bank holiday completely escaped me as I am down in Sydney atm. I guess looking at a lack of liquidity on there got me wondering what it would be like if prices really did start crashing - would the market makers on BV step in the offer a price come what may? Steve - re the allocated storage at the mint, I haven't purchased anything yet (just opened a/c today but the plan atm is to close my SLV etf position and replicate this at the mint). I was going to go unallocated as the mint is fully backed by the WA govt - I have heard the physical args etc but tbh if the Aus govt defaults then I will probably have more to worry about.