surfdude

You could try the HSBC site as it is comprehensive and lets you get valuation for specific sites.

How did you come up with the value of 46 as a multiple to find fair value for CC? Cheers

BTW, if HK property gets interesting I predict more traffic on this thread.

I've had a couple calls from agents too out of the blue. I think they may have more time on their hands on the thinner volume and thus are working harder and working on 'old' leads... The deal was 4.8 for a CC A flat on lowish floor phase 1. On another note, I noticed the gov't has started to discuss whether to proceed with a massive reclamation project in East and West Tung Chung new town to the tune of 180 Ha. This would, in effect, double the size of the existing town with most area zoned residential. Potential eyesore, noise pollution associated with the works I would think. BTW, what does Sq x 22 and MMIx 46 (mass market index) refer to? I get the rest of the chart.

I've noticed there hasn't been much activity on the Asiaxpat property forum - not sure what message this gives about property in HK other than volume has gone down significantly.

CGNAO, you were right on cue with your comments. Gold topped at around US$1430 and then had a dramatic drop - Now trading around US$1390 in HK trading. How did you know it was coming?

Looking at the blue line, it seems the correction in gold will go to somewhere just above $1300 - $1320? and then bounce off that line and start ascending again. This could be an excellent buying opportunity.

Perhaps it is best valued logarithmically when considering value and linearly when looking for technical indicators such as support, resistance, momentum and possible turning points. What do you think?

So which is the better chart to look at gold - linear plotting the nominal gains or logarithmic plotting gains as percentage increases and why is one better than the other? Would like to hear the discussion on this.

About a year ago when Armstrong wrote his paper on Gold he was calling for a temporary high in 2010-11. He was calling for gold to reach a temporary top at the primary channel top of $1380. He said a big change in trend may be Oct/Nov 2010 with a 12 month trend thereafter. - an Oct/Nov 2010 low would point to an explosive rally for the following year. - an Oct/Nov 2010 high would point to a decline for the following year. Clearly we are having a high so could Armstrong be right in predicting a big correction for next year?

I am still sticking to my call of $1450 I made back in the spring and think it could get near this price by Dec/Jan. If there is a black swan event, like a major bank collapsing or soverign default, it could go considerably higher. If there is no event by the end of Jan. I think it will sink back down below $1200. The key phrase in gold over the next couple of years will be volatility.

The community of Oseto-Cho, about an hour drive outside of Nagasaki on the coast, was one of the better communities that I lived in. People worked together and shared their knowledge and learning. The area was sustainable with most families having fields to plant rice and many households had Mikan (orange) trees in their yard. It was some of the best fruit and vegetables I have ever eaten (watermellon, strawberries, oranges, pears, apples). We were lucky in that some key members in the community had worked overseas for NGO's and were happy to include us gaijin in the community - this may not be the case everywhere in Japan. Still, I think Japan could be a great place to live if you find the right place. Edit: the gold thread may not be the best place for my two cents on Japan. Hope I didn't bore anyone.

Thanks for sharing. So you used your property profits to buy gold and then in turn used your gold profits to (almost) pay off your existing mortgage. I see this as an arbitrage play where you now have 200 mace of free gold and have paid off/down future debt. Nice play.

Gold has built up a solid floor at 1080 - 1120. I think it still holds some surprises and we could see it strengthening to 1400 by October. This is in line with one of the scenarios that Armstrong spelt out in his essay on Gold last fall.

Thanks for that GF. Would you buy the discounted kruggers as opposed to Maples/Nuggets? The price difference is about US$50.

I think there will always be a disparity between kruggers and Nuggets in Hong Kong. At least with the banks but what you say would be true if the coins were taken elsewhere and a buyer bidded the same price for a 1 oz coin irregardless of if being a maple,panda, krugger...

Kruggers are 22 Karat and Maples and Nuggets are 24 Karat. Nuggets are in plastic cases - maybe that is to protect them from scratches since they are purer coins. If Kruggers have the same gold content they would have to be mixed with more copper and thus heavier. Anyway they are cheaper and inversely you get less for them when you exchange them back. Incidently, Exchanging gold here is the same as any FX and treated the same. Just have to go to banks that deal in physical/coins. I am wondering if this situation is the same in other places? I.E., Walk into your bank and buy/sell coins or is this something done only in Hong Kong/China?

What I find interested about those prices is that the buy price for Maples and Nuggets is the same as for Kruggrands. However the fineness for Maples and Nuggets is 999.9 but 916.6 for Krugerrands. In Hong Kong, the prices are not the same with the Kruggerand selling/buying for around US$50 less. Why would someone buy Kruggers (with less gold content) than maples/nuggets if they are selling at the same price or conversely why would someone sell them at the same price?

Roubini was in HK yesterday and spoke about the severe correction that is going to hit global equity markets in the second half of this year. There is going to be a significant correction in asset prices (I am guessing that property could be one of the big ones here). Gold and the US dollar have been acting inversely. When the equities markets and asset prices get hit money could flow into $US (and other currencies) as a safe haven. So here is my question: How long will the gold/US$ inverse relationship hold up. What indicators to watch for when they are working in tandem again (i.e., both as safe havens). Alot of the gold movement back in late 2009 was with investors and hedgies jumping in. If some of their other investments get hit later this year will they have to sell their gold to cover other losses (as happened in October 2008)? When this gets cleared out and the price looks attractive this could be when gold and US$ are both seen as safe havens again. I believe that gold needs to stay above the key support level of $1033 which was the high back in 2008.

Sounds like you have a nice flat in Seoul. I always enjoyed my visits to Seoul - especially Insadong. I was in Korea for a year then Japan and now Hong Kong - So have definately been enjoying the Far East. I found people in Korea very generous as I am sure you know - I was given a Hyundai Stellar. When the IMF crisis hit loads of people donated their gold jewelry to the government to help out. How do you think IMF crisis 2 will play out?

So RH are you living in Korea? I lived in Ulsan in 97/98 and experienced the IMF crisis as the Koreans called it.

Just catching up on some past posts aftering returning from a holiday in Bali. 1033 is the previous high set back in Mach 2008. A close above this for 2009, which gold did, bodes well for gold in 2010 as indicated by Armstrong and others. Happy New Year to all!

This could be big. Hong Kong as a financial centre is about to mature. The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange is set to begin operations early next year and is signing-up founding shareholders. It is set to launch its first product: Gold Futrues Contract in the first quater of 2010. That is probably why they are building a gold repository at the airport and they have asked for their gold to be returned from London. I got the info. from this article: Bank buys into exchange Mandy Lo Tuesday, December 15, 2009 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia) (0349) has bought a 10 percent stake in the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange as a founding shareholder. ICBC (Asia) is the second mainland government-backed investor in the bourse for commodities after China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company, the controlling shareholder of China COSCO (1919). However, the price of the sale was not disclosed by either party. "Such an investment is an appropriate step as we are specialized in providing cross-border financial services for the mainland and Hong Kong while China is a very important importer of and trader in commodities," ICBC (Asia) managing director and chief executive Chen Aiping said. Beijing-backed CITIC Group, China Resources (Holdings), Merrill Lynch and Barclays Capital are also potential strategic investors or shareholders, according to HKMEx chairman Barry Cheung Chun-yuen. The exchange is expected to launch its first product - gold futures contracts - in the first quarter of 2010, Cheung said last month. The HKMEx had initially planned to launch fuel oil futures contracts as the first product type .

301ouncer wrote: "I would not fling an eye lid if POG goes back to £300 because I own honest money and nothing else matters. I paid that much for it and happy to keep it that way. I was not looking for no profit whatsoever. As for property it is going down the abyss all the way to 2033." 2033, isn't that the bottom for property that Armstrong is calling? In a few years time when the gold has had its run won't you use some of it to accumulate assets? Such as a nice farm in the countryside as Faber recommends or consider some other store of wealth?

Hey 301er, that was a pretty savvy move to do back in 2005. You must be over the moon with those 301 ounces with the POG today and the potential gains in the near future. When you do decide to 'cash some in' (in say a few years when it is looking toppy) how will you avoind the banks with your returns? Straight into property?