DoctorSolar

Big pop up 13% from Luna Gold today but I can't see any news on the tickers? Time to sell or does someone know something we don't..... Edit 17% now

Juniors getting totally thumped today... surely not the start of another 2008 style crash?

Im finding it extremely tough to buy this weakness which is usually a good sign that this is a buy... time will tell

EDIT: nervously bought some more GDXJ

I don't know why those of you with a 'hold-only' approach to gold feel the need to keep taking pot-shots at the others, sometimes in a not-so-pleasant way.

It wasn't so long ago that us with the hold-only approach were meant to be "clawing at the sky" ... so the pot shots are flying in both directions.

In any case all of that is a distraction. No pot shots from me just a clear setting out of my approach and why I think those folk who don't have the time to monitor the markets will find it useful. Along with the FACT that when trading you may end up with LESS metal than you started. If folks want to trade fine by me it just don't think its for everyone thats all.

I don't understand why people think gold is going down, it is utterly beyond me... countries are going bankrupt, their respective currencies are in question and everyone wants to sell their gold, WTF! There seems to be a division forming here, where everyone here saw the crisis coming but some still have no sense of timing... BTW gold is retracing its footsteps already tonight!

Some folks want to try and play the waves with one of the few things that can provide protection. Trying to get rich while the world blows up. Risking holding paper and being way out of position. Personally I think that is totally nuts. But hey ho that's for them to decide. The argument against doing so is well voiced here so even the newbie lurkers will have seen both sides.

If we do see the projected $150-200 in the coming week(s) here is something for the non-trader, core holders here to bear in mind

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/339...f=GLD178ED0510A

I think the rise in price is sending us a message. And this is what I think gold is saying...

 

I won’t always be this cheap. If you don’t buy me soon, you may regret it. I may get less expensive in the short term, but don’t mistake that to mean I’m losing value or that everything is fine with your paper currencies or your economic future. What you’ve done to your fiat currencies will hurt you. What is coming to the price of things will overwhelm you. What the government has debased will haunt you. I’m here to protect your finances. I may be the only thing that can really do that.

 

You can be cautious about the price, but don’t be short-sighted about the purpose. Are you sure you own enough of me?

A fool is a fool but I do worry about people who are naive about economics but are concerned about the future being influenced by articles like this.

Yep which is why folks like yourself and many others on here are doing such a great job opening folks eyes. Keep up the good work folks.

RBCI Alert!

Oh dear... the level of skepticism and frankly ignorance about gold shows we have quite some ways to go till we reach anything close to a bubble.

Now that we are holding solidly above $1000 I wonder if Paul Hill at moneyweek now thinks we are not in a bubble?

Turkey of the week: victim of the gold bubble

the gold price has failed to consolidate above the $1,000 an ounce barrier – a sure-fire sign that prices are way out of kilter with fundamentals

RGLD tipped a sell at 40 now trading at 50 oh dear....

The Tom O'brien's gold top call interview can be seen here:

http://www.tfnn.com/cnbc.php

He thinks we are headed to $1075

He also thinks "the dollar is the best fiat currency out there"

I'm not trading this but will be buying with both hands should we hit his target.

Time will tell but personally I think the crash of 2008 is still very raw for those who were long gold at the time and they are very jittery about going through a repeat of that. That wall of worry is still massively in the gold communities mind. Fair play but I'm more in the Hoye/Skarika/Sinclair camp and can just as easily see us hitting fresh highs.

I agree. / But: see below

 

Be careful with your gold investments here (Tom Obrien, the top gold forecaster, has gone bearish.)

The Tom O'brien's gold top call interview can be seen here:

http://www.tfnn.com/cnbc.php

He thinks we are headed to $1075

I'm not trading this but will be buying with both hands should we hit his target.

I agree. / But: see below

 

Be careful with your gold investments here (Tom Obrien, the top gold forecaster, has gone bearish.)

 

You might consider taking profits on 10-20% of your position.

Then, if we get a 10-20% pullback, you can buy back in cheaper

I assume profits to be taken in something other than Sterling?

At the moment I have only just built a core holding which I will not trade.

If we get a 20% pullback I will most likely go close to all in.

Once I am at that stage I might be tempted to try and move in and out with a small portion.

Cheers

(Is this report complete nonsense?)

 

Rents rise faster than house prices

Rent rises have outpaced house price growth – to reach less than 5pc off the all-time high.

 

By Emma Wall

14 May 2010

This report may reflect the current situation (London centric presumably). However, the government have made it perfectly clear that we are in for a world of pain. That means:

1) lower wages (cabinet have all taken a 5% pay cut and a public sector pay freeze)

2) most likely higher unemployment

3) higher cost of living

Against a backdrop like that the pressure on rents is downwards.

If my rent were to rise or I lost my job I would move my family in to my parents place. I'm fortunate in that they have a place big enough for all of us. I for one will not feed higher rent and bailout the property speculators. I also point blank refuse to be a wage slave to the banksters so no buying for me either not yet anyway.

Everyones' input is most welcome

 

 

I agree with what you have written. Things will be tough for many people..... however, this could lead to interest rates being held low and anyone with a disposable incomes may sail through the though years.

 

In any case, you have to live somewhere and I hope everyone is sufficiently insulated from the potential of rent increases

 

EDIT: It's also worth remembering that prices are actually increasing at present.

Rates are already at all time lows and folks are still struggling to make their payments.

Reduced wages and higher cost of living is only going to make things worse.

A run on Sterling cannot be ruled out and that will likely spike interest rates.

Those who have a low fixed rate and who keep their jobs should be OK but they should not expect much capital gain for the reasons highlighted above.

Also for the highlighted reasons I just don't see how landlords can increase rent while unemployment is increasing and wages decreasing.

Of course you are going to see regional variation so your mileage may vary

Renting is still cheaper than buying where I am with landlords I know having to subsidise the mortgage repayments. So in effect my landlord is part paying for me to live here and picks up the massive repair bill for the roof

On top of that I am free to invest my STR fund which is doing pretty well. I am determined not to be a wage slave to the banksters and hope that I may be a cash buyer sometime 2011/12 or at least have a tiny mortgage. The freedom that possibility offers is too great for me to throw away any of my gold.

I saved the horror of the drop as I have decided to whenever I see a nice smackdown.

 

Most technical traders say that once a pattern in a stock has become widely recognised it invalidates the pattern as people anticipate and thus destroy that action or something along those lines. And yet we see this pattern time and time again. Now I am no conspiracy theorist but wtf is going on! Surely even the most hardened skeptic must see something isn't right here?

Retail bullion being cleaned out and yet spot price getting smacked down?

Demand outstripping supply = lower prices

I find listening to Sinatra singing Sondheim's "send in the clowns" helps at moments like these:

Isn't it rich?

Isn't it queer?

Losing my timing this late

In my career?

And where are the clowns?

Quick, send in the clowns.

Don't bother - they're here.

I feel slightly sick in my stomach and I'm 40% in gold. There's a distinct feeling that this is getting out of hand. Looking around my office right now, everyone's happily getting on with their job. Maybe they're on to something?

Sadly most folks are utterly clueless about what is going on. My office is filled with pretty educated folks many of whom are in finance. These guys were piling in to Icesave when it was clear to me something was up. They have no idea what is going on or where we are headed. They have no idea what a Sov or a Britannia is. Ignorance is bliss for these folks right now.... Sadly the bliss wont last.

EDIT: just to get it off my chest one of the financial guys at work was always bragging how much money he was making with his chinese stock investments in 2007/2008. He has now lost 50% of his money. Even the so called experts are f&cking clueless. Another finance guy stopped buying the FTSE index tracker right at the low. I told him at the time now is the time to buy not sell. Did he buy? No! He threw it all in the garbage can ready for the banksters to gobble up. God help us all these guys are supposedly the financial geniuses!

I showed them a 1oz bar of palladium i bought right at the low. Again totally clueless as to what it was.

Showed them a $50 1oz gold eagle. Again amazing ignorance. "Why did you buy it when its only worth $50" give me strength!

Do you see wages being suppressed for 25 years?

 

It's important to remember that 'inflating away the debt' can happen at any point in the life of the debt. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow or next week or next year.

I know the question wasn't directed to me but I hope you don't mind if i put in my tuppence worth.

I think we are going to see the standard of living drop for an extended period although admittedly perhaps not for 25 years. This drop in standard of living will involve higher prices for essentials relative to your income. We are already seeing paycuts and pay freezes while I saw someone post (Wanderer?) inflation is at 4.4%. During this period there will an enormous squeeze on peoples finances with much less money available to service debt. This puts massive downward pressure on house prices at least for the next couple of years especially when priced in gold.

Once wages start to rise again in real terms (inflation adjusted) that will be the time to at least consider buying.

So yes over a 25 year span it may get inflated away but it will be far from painless particularly during the initial phases where wages are going down and inflation up.

Widening trade deficit is one possibility, from -£6.5B to -£7.5B

Watching BBC news and especially the interview with Will Hutton from the work foundation you would think yes we have a problem to deal with but it can be dealt with really quite simply and in a few years everything will be just fine as long as you do what he says. What a load of cobblers!

The market analysis if you can call it that is risible on the BBC too. Pound plummeting but no lets not mention that lets focus on the FTSE being up a massive 0.9%.

It is just finding the optimal point of averaging in and this is definately not it. Most of the peaks have been 1.28 x 200 day ma and one has been 1.34. I recognise thatthe risks of this approach is that selling half at 1.28 would mean missing the rare time it goes to 1.34. If it does go to 1.34 x 200 dma I will sell another 1/4 leaving a quarter. The only other scenario is the the final blow off, but we are years away from that. I also accept that buying in a 200 dma means you risk the events like the 2008 stock market panick where gold went much below its 200 dma. However this is a once in a 100 year event and won't be repeated any time soon.

 

With your approach the stuff you buy now you are likely to be under water for for 3-6 months until we get another spike up in the Autumn. The very fact that you are investing in gold means you are streets ahead of average mom n pops investors but I don't think you are optimising your returns.

 

My approach means you are semi trading gold as I sold into the top at the end of Novemeber and bought in again in Feb so was out of the market in december and January. It is basically contrarian investing as most people were panick buying when I sold and panick selling when I bought.

 

Also you need a buy and sell indicator as otherwise you will never exit and when we get the final blow off you will likely be continuing to average in.

 

These are just my thoughts, I hope you don't see this as pontification as I recognise there is more than 1 way to skin a rabbit in the markets and this is just my approach.

 

All the best with your investing.

Yeah I understand your approach and the rationale. As I said I acknowledge that my approach may not turn out to be optimal. But we are in totally uncharted territory here and I personally think moving out of gold now is too risky. All bets are off and nothing is definite. I bet gold was technically overbought in Zim Dollars etc for a very long time.

I have had my sell indicator set for several years now. A house paid in gold/cash with zero mortgage (assuming we are left with country in which I would want to own a house). Given whats happened we have vowed never be wage slaves to the banksters again.

All the best

This is as anecdotal as it gets, but in terms of supply, the usual daily count of properties added in the area I monitor via Globrix is ~20 (maximum 30, unless a new agent comes online). Today: 97!

 

Time will tell if this is a blip or the start of a new trend...

If I heard correctly the new cabinet are all taking a 5% pay cut as a demonstration of what is to come and that they too are "doing their bit for the deficit". Folks buying houses at current prices are taking a huge risk. All the pressure to my mind is weighing down on house prices. I understand all the reasons folks on here have given for buying now as I have a wife and child too. But really renting has been fantastic:

ZERO debt

Roof just fell in - no massive repair bill for me - catch mr landlord

Waking up each morning to see the STR fund (in gold) has made me more when I was asleep than I make working during the day.

Seeing G0ldfingers charts of UK houses priced in gold

Knowing I am not a wage slave to the banksters by giving them interest on a mortgage

I would only consider buying now if I were totally minted and could buy in cash and still have bullion left over. If you dont fall in to that category waiting another year could be the best move you ever make.

I am planning on selling half my gold stash at 1.28 x 200 day moving average which i think will be at the end of May beginning of June. It won't go much higher. I will then buy back in over the summer near 200 day ma level.

Fair play if that's how you wish to approach it.

And normally I might attempt the same thing except these are far from "normal" times.

Will you be selling gold for GBP? The collapse of GBP appears to be in full swing (1.46 vs USD and declining) so 200day ma level over the summer (after you May/June sell point) could well be the price we are at now. Who knows... the price today is almost certainly not the top so averaging in now while it might not be the optimal path you are most likely still going to make money over the next year anyway.

Anyway just food for thought and best of luck with your approach.

EDIT: i notice others were selling "into the top" when we were at 813 but now we are at 843! So err not much of a top really. As I say each to their own. However, I would strongly caution against anyone trading their STR fund out of gold and back in to Sterling. The risks just look way too great for my tastes regardless of what the technicals are saying.

Sounds like there is a lot of us in the same boat, waiting for a dip so we can add to our stash. The one thing I've learned about gold over the past couple of years is that a dip always comes along eventually. If we get back down to $1150 I'll be buying. The only worrying thing is that the level of volume of physical buying has gone through the roof...

What if the dip is from $1400 to $1260?

I think its possibly unwise to set a firm i will not buy above this price target especially if you haven't accumulated a "from my cold dead hands" core position yet. Simply add on any and all price weakness regardless of where that dip is to.

I remember the dip to 680GBP and folks were mostly saying here we go deleveraing again sub 500 is a distinct possibility. No one knew 100% what would happen. All I knew was we were sitting on huge price weakness and that must be bought regardless of price. Looks good sitting here at 840.

EDIT: I am averaging in more Sterling right now in a disciplined every week/month approach regardless of price. However, if we see massive price weakness in between my buy dates I will bring a purchase forward to buy weakness.

I'm 50% in Gold and Silver, 50% in Sterling - started buying metals 2yrs ago andvery glad I did. May bite the bullet an go all in... I'm talking GoldMoney here, I've no physical.

As I mentioned elsewhere my dependents weren't comfortable going all in when we were sub 500GBP

So I averaged in 50% of our STR fund while the rest remained in Sterling

Now they understand what the likely fate of Sterling is and what's happening to all fiat currencies.

Now we have blasted thru 800GBP I have the green light to go all in....

Aaaaarrrggghhhhh!!! why does it take high prices before folks want to buy in!!!

Anyhoo i'm now averaging the rest in right here right now.

Not trying to time it as I've seen even the pros make right royal c*ck up of that.

Plain and simple set amount of Sterling in to gold same time every week/month till I/we are all in.

the music is white zombie - real solution #9. The pictures are cgnao-esque.

At least its contained..........

Fresh pile of Sterling cash here destined for gold. Pretty much feeling like you right now Ret45. Ultimately this is not the top for gold so if we go down from here it will be temporary. A disciplined averaging in approach seems like the best compromise.

Silver seems to be lagging gold at the moment - I just noticed that older Sovs are now pennies short of £200 on CID. My advice would be to have bought them some years ago! Interestingly, after owning PMs for some years now, I am always slightly thrilled when I hand over fiat and receive valuable good/services in return - it seems almost wrong!

Silver up 4.5% in the blink of an eye today

G0ldfinger you rascal you beat me to it!

Silver is on a run and clearly breached £12 an ounce now. CID have been charging £499.49 a KG for a while now regardles of variations at comex but they have increased the price now to £512.30.

 

Anyone else bid on the 44 ounces of silver coins on ebay?

That 1kilo mexican libertad purchase made a few weeks back when it was on special at 469GBP is looking like a very good buy indeed. Who was it that said back up the truck nd went all in when we went to the 9GBP area recently? They have made out like a bandit. Good work!

Watching brown on the TV debate was making me too angry had to switch it off

According to our old friend Bob Hoye:

a close in gold above $1161 should trigger a move to all-time highs

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye042310.html

Gold closed at 1167 so it looks like it could be party time for gold here. With USD going up along with gold the GBP price could get interesting. Looks like cgnao's target of 900GBP will be here soon enough.

Gold up, USD up, other metals down in USD terms, stock indices down.... interesting change in the "normal" run of events.

Gold decoupling from the stock markets at last? Gold and USD seen as safe haven?