romans holiday

Gold through 1400 would mark the end of the mega correction for me. Price still looks solid on the long term log chart.

"The key long term trend is in play" Hmmm, let me guess... something like 20% appreciation year on year?

Looks like another wash out is coming! Will you buy for the inevitable bounce?

Nice post Happy. imo this chart is the essential one for gold. Seeing the decline in terms of the log scale puts things in the real perspective.

Interesting chart [even if linear]. A lot is usually made of the spike to 1900, but it was just a spike driven by the hottest money. So take the froth off the top, and the steady increase to the level of 1600 level looks more significant. From the 1600 level, we see an even greater spike down now to near 1200. So you'd have to think a retracement to 1600 is on the cards.

Yep, better to predict on the basis of theory than believe on the basis of dogma. You'll then hedge. My interpretation on current events is that the volatility in bullion prices has been deeper and longer than predicted. Still think bullion prices will head up again.

Notice how the lower graphic in percentage/ logarithmic terms puts the 2008 and 2013 declines on a parity. Yet the parity is distorted in the upper chart, where the decline looks to be of a larger magnitude thanks to that darn use of the linear. Anyway, no call for panic stations yet.

Equally from that chart, looks due a bounce. Next stop $35?

I bang on a lot about log charts because it helps you see through the illusion of talking the numbers/ units as your measuring stick. If you simply looked at the numbers, you might freak at the fall of $500 from 1850 at the peak to 1350 at the latest dip. Yet pull up a long term log chart [goldprice.org is good for this] and the latest crash just looks garden variety and on a par with the crash in 2008. Though the crashes are of similiar magnitude, the earlier crash only involved half the numbers/ units of this later one.

Yep, did notice that. You were correlating the immediate crash in silver with the longer term consolidation in gold if i remember right. Could perhaps be a signal there, where the short collapse in silver gives you the long consolidation in gold? I was more focused on comparing gold with gold, and in the two phases of consolidations/ crashes we've seen. On that basis, you'd think the bottom was in.

Looking at the long term log charts, the magnitude of the crash/ consolidation in both gold and silver are now similiar. This recent one of the past two years taking a lot longer.

Would be more interesting to look at on the log chart. : )

Saxena has flip-flopped on gold in the past, and no doubt will do so again. PS. No certainties.

Far out. Oh well, days like this confirm why you put half of your disposable into real assets, and remind you that it was never going to be easy.