romans holiday

Get a BullionVault or GoldMoney account. Then you could do it online.

Problem is I am now stuck in Korea, and I believe you need to go through some identification process with the online bullion accounts.

Also, I doubt if I can transfer funds from New Zealand without first setting up some arrangements with them first.

Any advice anyone? Bloody frustrating having the money out of reach. I have been buying each month here in Korea, but I am hoping to put a decent amount, which is in NZ, also into gold/silver.

What's the opinion on here about GBPUSD? We're at 1.99 right now, but it looks like a dead cat bounce to me. I need to transfer cash to the US, so I think I am going to do that sooner rather than later.

Goldfinger... I am shocked; somehow I couldn't imagine you holding any of that funny money stuff.

Reposting (from weekend post on previous bb) to seek comment from this new bb...

 

Oil rose steeply from ~30 to get to 70, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 60-70.

Gold rose steeply from ~300 to get to 700, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 600-700.

 

Next, oil started its big run up at the START of 2007, it hesitated at 90-100, but then picked up again in Feb 2008 (speculators) to reach 140 (or more)

Whereas, gold started its big run up in the AUGUST 2007, it hesitated at 900-1000, but.... [prediction would be...] then picked up again in SEPT/OCT 2008 to reach 1400 (or more)

I am really hoping for that situation where gold dawdles about before taking off later in the year. I am in the frustrating situation of having cash in the bank but not being able to swap it for gold as am out of the country. I get back in early August and I imagine that will be my last purchase of metals. I hope to sit back and relax after that.

Does anyone think we might see sub 900 again? I’ve only got a few crumbs of gold atm. I can’t fill my boots till 22nd July when a savings scheme matures. I could do with a price drop.

Yeah, I am in the same "boot"... but even worse, can't load up until August

If I remember correctly, some commentators on FSN/ goldseek are still calling for movement between these levels and 850. Here's hoping.

When Gold is discussed often the case for silver is included if not mentioned. Peter Schiff was asked about silver and said gold and silver are the monetary metals and he makes a case for both, even if he only seems to talk about gold. They go hand in hand.

 

The Hunt brothers cornering the silver market is what led to its $50 spike in the 80s. How high would it have gone otherwise? $20? Photographic use has fallen, one of the main industrial uses.

 

On the upside, silver has some unique properties, thermal and electrical conductivity, reflectivity and anti bacterial. Theres potential for silver zinc batteries & rfi tags etc.

 

Silver looks better value than gold as you get much more of it for your money, which seems to be the reason why some people I know have bought some.

 

Although I'm in silver as well as gold I don't see why silver has any greater potential than gold.

Yep, silver looks as good as gold. Some commentators are arguing that the ratio between silver and gold, now at 50-1, may eventually move to 20-1. I am stocking up in August and plan to buy 20 ounces of silver to every ounce of gold.

Marc Faber yesterday said:

 

"don't listen to Ben Bernanke"

 

"people should buy gold"

 

"real interest rates are negative"

 

"the biggest speculator is the FED, as they they force people to speculate"

 

He reckons commodities during the second half of this year will be bearish, although the commodities bull will continue for many years. He reckons it's better now to buy gold rather than commodities as gold hasn't increased so much and is still quite cheap.

 

In this CNBC video yesterday (13 minutes):

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=779857797&play

cheers for that link... always good to listen to marc faber... he seems in good spirits these days despite being the author of the doom and gloom report.

Great stuff. Thanks.

Yep its all about real INTEREST rates.

Interesting point was made on FSN today; the myth that raising interest rates has to be negative for gold. They made the point that throughout the 70's rates went from 3% to 21% while at the same time gold also went up.

http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

The third hour, 42 minutes in.

I've been sitting and watching Gold for years now. With time I no longer have any emotions with the ups or downs. I used to mind. Sometimes I buy a bit more though.

Yes, I agree, cool heads are required. Easier said than done though

Watch emotion run riot in the mass mind as people pile into gold in the near future pushing it up.

In the article:

 

 

Is he laughingly dismissing the possiblility of banks swapping their defaulting loans for treasury bills? Or the notion of giving everyone cash in the form of a "tax rebate"?

I suspect the amount the FED has supplied so far in "tax rebates" and "bail outs" is insignificant in comparison to the tidal wave of defaults and bankruptcies that may come. I can not see hyper-inflation as an option therefore the end game of deflation looks more probable. I liked the phrase "zombification" used to refer to banks no longer able to function.

This certainly works if the credit is destroyed rather than monetised by CBs. In the event it is monetised you get hyper-inflation. Either eventuality is good for gold, but bad for the economy.

Yes, but credit [the availability of] is also being withdrawn from the consumer and the larger economy. Watch for credit cards to go next.

Yep, gold is good for any monetary crisis whichever way it goes. Another article here looking at Japan's deflation.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ul-kasriel.html

With respect, I'd rather disagree with the thesis in that article, because...

 

- Once the fire is built, you don't need to keep piling wood on it (i.e., more money on top of a decade of masses of sky-high money supply) for it to flare up from a few small flames into a blaze, and even taking a few logs off won't stop it if the pile is big enough

 

- CBs have been giving even more money away (OK, rolling over loans indefinately) since last august adding more fuel to the fire

 

- SWF piggy banks are full, and they're increasingly putting those dollars to work in alternative investments (espec commodities)

 

- the wage-cost spiral is kicking in big time in the East, pushing up salaries and costs of commodities

 

In short, there's a massive inflation pendulum now swinging back to the West after we passed all that money to Asia for 10+ years, and its being accelerated towards us by SWFs panicking about dollar strength and by recent CB handouts to financial institutions. Inflation has, for the first time ever, become a global problem, and wage-cost effects are already in play. So how in the hell are prices not going to keep going up for some time yet?

Any recession induced pull-back in prices is years away (2010 at earliest, and perhaps much later), that's if it ever happens (because it will be very difficult to destroy all the money thats been created in the last 10 years), by which time gold will have peaked and I'll have sold my stash :-)

Yes, there are good arguments for both sides of the coin.

I wonder if maybe "decoupling" may come to consist of inflation in the East and deflation in the West.. In this scenario, prices will continue to go up in the West until things are simply unaffordable. At that point they will no longer be exported to the West but consumed in the East.

My opinions are not fully thought through.

Interesting article on deflation here. Succinctly stated.

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Just a thought, but maybe all this talk of inflation [just re-priced commodities due to global competition and a weak dollar] is a red herring. Perhaps the bigger story is credit deflation.

'Gold rose in the great depression, and it is poised to do so again. Recent action (the last several years) in gold is very consistent with deflationary theory about the destruction of credit. Gold, unlike fiat, is no one else's liability. Money with that attribute (and gold is money), should rise under these conditions.'

Another nice article on topic here:

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1214505689.php

Same with me, lifes stressful enough - and it's only money we're talking about here :-)

Furthermore, I'd never take my eyes off the screen if trading, and so would never attend to my day job !

 

Price looks like its holding, but I suspect there may be a few quite hot terminals on the gold exchanges

...now the buying should start (hopefully)

I plan to keep buying where I can while it is under a $1000. That is my plan anyway, I do not know if I will be able to resist gold even at higher prices.

Being the end of the month they may try to smash it back. BTW Eric King on FSNH was saying something about options being closed at the end of June so expect a drop at the beginning of July. I don't trade, just buy and hold but I wonder if selling, say, 10% today to buy back in a couple of weeks might be a bit of fun... I must say I'm tempted.

I do not trade either. Would stress me out too much. Let's hope the powers that be do us all a favor and try to keep a lid on gold. Of course, one day in the near future all that building pressure is bound to explode.

Agreed. I had similar conversation with a friend recently who has massively overleveraged himself on a big mortgage. Apparently the fundamentals (according to him) are in place for the housing market to recover and boom again next year. I sighed, bit my lip and poured another beer. I hadn't the heart to tell him if he avoids insolvency he will be paying that huge mortgage back until he retires... if then It's odd how peoples' perceptions are in line with what they want to happen rather than what actually does happen.

 

Still gold is up which is good, which is nice I was hoping it would stay lower for a while longer so I could continue accumulating in the dip... so much for my wants!

People are slowly starting to get it. A Canadian colleague excitedly told me a few months ago how his brother bought a house in Canada for $800,000. And yes, mortgaged up to the eye balls. Surprised him at the time by my inability to supress a groaning noise. Over the next few months had a chance to give him my perspective on the housing market; do not buy, just rent for a few years. Him and his wife [Korean] are returning to Canada this month to live. Talking at a wedding reception, I was happy to hear that they would rent because apparently the house prices were dropping. Yet in confidently replying that that was great and they should rent for a few years as house prices will continue to unwind, I could see that the penny still had not quite dropped as they gave me that dumbfounded intense stare of incomprehensibility.

So much for oil being in a bubble. Looks to be taking out that giant of the DOW, General Motors. Now at a 53 year low.

Seems to have happened very fast in Vietnam.

Yep... but I would imagine the mainstream US investor would consider Viet Nam a bit of a basket case country though.... and it "could not possibly happen here".

IMHO gold will only take off when inflation psychology is rampant. For the average investor [who takes their cues from the mass media and is only aware of inflation as something dimly floating on the horizon] it will take a long period of disastrous economic news for inflation psychology [not inflation perception] to sink in and take hold. This will be the point where Western investors pile into gold pushing the price up.

Psychology is the key here, and I imagine we could be a few years away from this. There most probably will be no sudden meltdown soon as the CBs have shown they are perfectly happy to keep inflating until the cows come home.

For what its worth... my own objective with investing (and especially so with volatile PMs) is based upon the addage

"be right and sit tight"

Both are hard to do, and only a few people can do both!

 

So for gold, I think its going through the roof, and that will happen in next 6-12 months.

 

So I'm long with a big investment, and I aint selling for some time yet! So far up 50%

 

...but as always, DYOR!

.... and if I could add... KEEP BUYING! Still a steal at this price.

'cept I think it may take bit longer than that. Houston still has a problem.

Indeed! Or even...

 

Expect a one year decimation followed by a twenty-five year pause in living standards (if you're lucky)

It really is starting to look dire. Looks like the "post-developed" countries will have to pull themselves up by their bootstraps by producing for the East..

Jim Rogers made a good move.

Mervyn King: Expect a one year pause in living standards

 

Interesting. Right timing to be the catalyst for this move.

Is the power of positive thinking all these Central Banker types can resort to these days?

Shows how impotent they really are.

He who holds the oil makes the rules.

No I mean deflation. There's too much money out there and some of it will end up being destroyed so either way there has to be a real deflation (IMO), but that can take the form of an actual deflation or inflation in prices (so that the monetary value stays stable, but real value falls).

 

A lot of the monetary inflation already happened - it's the root cause - but the problem now is too much money sloshing round the world. The only solution is real money destruction, but that could play out a few different ways (in which I'd also include the possibility of hyperinflation).

Deflation would seem the likely outcome after a period of chronic inflation, but I can not see how the deflationary option is open to the dollar these days. Given the astronomical debt this would be a disaster. Do you think America may default on its international debt??

Looks to me the support level has been 860-870 for the past two months. I remember, I think it was Goldseek radio, saying they thought the support level was 850. I think we will continue to see these swings for a while until the price settles on the way towards the previous spike at 1000. But this may take a good few months to achieve. The dollar won't give up without a fight.

Looks to me like the pattern following the spike in June 2006 is repeating. After the spike the price was very volatile for half a year. The price then stabilized and steadily moved up to the previous spike price for the next half of the year before taking of again for the spike we had this year in March.

Just my hunch. I am no chartist.