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drbubb

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  1. CF.t / Canaccord Fin'l ... all data / Last: C$5.74 - 0.10 2019-06-28 12:36 C:CF 5.19 News Release Canaccord to buy back up to $40M of shares Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. has authorized the initiation of a substantial issuer bid, pursuant to which the company will offer to repurchase for cancellation up to $40-million of its common shares. The company expects to announce the terms of the offer and commence the offer on July 3, 2019, and that the bid will be completed by Aug. 9, 2019, unless extended or withdrawn. "We are pleased to provide this opportunity for our shareholders, which reflects increased confidence in the sustainability and direction of our earnings," said Dan Daviau, president and chief executive officer of Canaccord. "In addition to our recently revised dividend policy, this initiative allows us to provide enhanced returns for our shareholders, while maintaining sufficient excess capital for disciplined investment in our ongoing strategic priorities." The offer is expected to proceed by way of a modified Dutch auction, which will allow shareholders who choose to participate in the offer to select the price, within a price range of not less than $5.50 and not more than $6.30 per common share (in increments of 10 cents per common share). Upon expiry of the offer, the company will determine the lowest purchase price ...
  2. Back to Resistance levels - Can they break through it? CBL & PEI ... update : PEI-CBL : $1.12 +0.07, $6.50 -0.02, WPG: $3.90, +0.05 : PEI-CBL : 10d- w/WPG : WPG: $3.90, +0.05 ==
  3. GREAT LEAP FORWARD may be coming - the spring is loaded? GCM ... update / Last: $4.18 + 0.01
  4. Analyst Price Target on TSE:GCM C$5.70 > (34.12%Upside) Ba posted July 04, 2019 11:57 am by goldeagle1 Analyst Price Target on TSE:GCM C$5.70 > (34.12%Upside) Based on 2 analysts offering 12 month price targets for TSE:GCM in the last 3 months. The average price target is C$5.70 with a Today 30 Days Ago 90 Days Ago Consensus Rating: Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Consensus Rating Score: 4.00 4.00 4.00 Ratings Breakdown: 0 Sell Rating(s) 0 Hold Rating(s) 0 Buy Rating(s) 1 Strong Buy Rating(s) 0 Sell Rating(s) 0 Hold Rating(s) 0 Buy Rating(s) 1 Strong Buy Rating(s) 0 Sell Rating(s) 0 Hold Rating(s) 0 Buy Rating(s) 1 Strong Buy Rating(s) 0 0 0 0 Consensus Price Target: C$5.40 C$5.40 C$5.38 N/A Price Target Upside: 29.19% upside 60.71% upside 55.94% upside N/A ...read more
  5. GCM & TPRFF is very undervalued and oversold - It's a great gold nugget for gold investors - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GCM.TO/financials?p=GCM.TO How to Stay Ahead: Be Nimble and Move Quickly - 400,000oz by YE/23. Gran Colombia Gold (TSX:GCM) "We move very quickly." says Exec. Chairman Serafino Iacono of Gran Colombia Gold. He discusses: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjYsC0TbWNc 1) $50M in cash and NO taxes until next year 2) Finances: Cash, tight hold on shares, the balance sheet and repaying debt 3) 225,000oz to 400,000oz by the end of 2023 4) Colombian Gold Mining specialists Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29874624#vCCBxFoHwOyWoxpU.99 Looks like many are starting to pick up on how cheap it is
  6. Gran Colombia Gold Bonds or “Gold Notes”... Yielding 8%+ YTM Beyond Belief… this may be the most fascinating debt instrument we have ever reviewed. Rising with the price of gold, the cash flow and yield of Gran Colombia Gold’s senior secured “Gold Notes” appears to be headed straight into the land of unbelief. Perhaps what we see here is either wrong… or something in this picture seems to have quietly escaped the attention or the view of most other investors in the high yield bond market. Granted, this is not a straightforward and easily understood issue because of the quarterly interest boost linked to its amortized quarterly redemption of principle when the price of gold is higher 1250 per ounce. However, it is precisely this “hard to be understood” feature that is driving its current push into the land of dreams. Since our last review (two month ago), Gran Colombia Gold has posted its first quarter earnings for 2019, In a nutshell, there were notable improvements and increases, both in revenues and earnings, and a further strengthening of its balance sheet. Revenue of 77.5 million in the first quarter 2019, up 20% over Q1 2018. All-in-sustaining-costs of $621/oz for Q1, down from $920 Q1 2018. Adjusted EBTDA of 35.3 million for Q1 2019, up 29% from Q1 2018. Free cash flow $11.3 million for Q1 2019, up from $4.5 million Q1 2018. While Gran Colombia Gold’s most recent financial statements and balance sheet are certainly impressive in and of themselves when considering the merits of buying or holding its debt, they are not the whole story and do not convey some of its most important, and most compelling, features. The corporate debt held typically by retail investors is “senior unsecured” paper. However, these 2024 Gold Notes from Gran Colombia are “senior secured” paper. Therefore, the 20 million of Gran Colombia’s Convertible Debentures that were issued on April 4 of 2019 plainly take a back seat in rank and priority behind these “Gold Notes.” Considering the amortized redemption terms of the Gold Notes, there is absolutely no uncertainty in how the company intends to fully repay the debt. It is plainly explained below: During the six-year term of the Notes, the Company will deposit an amount of gold each year in a trust account (the “Gold Trust Account”). The annual number of ounces of gold to be deposited by the Company into the Gold Trust account and the amortization the principal amount of the Notes are as follows: Ounces Principal Amortization Year 1: 15,600 US$19,500,000 (done) Year 2: 15,600 US$19,500,000 Year 3: 13,200 US$16,500,000 Year 4: 12,000 US$15,000,000 Year 5: 12,000 US$15,000,000 Year 6: 10,000 US$12,500,000 Total: 78,400 ounces, equivalent to US$98 million @ US$1,250 per ounce floor price The debt repayment of $19,500,000 for year one has already been completed, and the remainder of outstanding Gold Notes now stands at $78,500,000. Please note the defined number of ounces of gold (the “Gold Trust Account”), with a minimum guaranteed value of $1,250 per ounce, that is being used to redeem the debt. The current 2019 estimated production of gold for Gran Colombia is between 210k and 225k ounces. Therefore, the scheduled redemption of Gold Notes this next year appears to only require setting aside about 7 to 7.5% of their projected gold production. Next year (2020), it would only require about 6 to 6.5% of the company’s gold production, presuming similar production estimates. The second reason is the bonus payment distribution that is added to the monthly interest payment every time the sale price of gold from the “Gold Trust Account” is over 1250 per ounce, which is used to make bond redemptions at the end of every quarter. Suffice it to say that the minimum expected cash flow incorporates both a partial redemption of bonds (at par) every third month, and the couponed interest payment of the bonds each and every month. That said, it must be noted that the price of gold is now well above $1250 per ounce... Price of Gold –> 1250 1300 1350 1400* 1450 6/27/2019 Bond Cost 101.00 YTM 8.08% 9.79% 11.50% 13.20% 14.91% YTW 7.62% 8.83% 9.72% 10.54% 11.07% 101.50 YTM 8.00% 9.68% 11.36% 13.04% 14.72% YTW 7.32% 8.52% 9.41% 10.22% 10.76% 102.00 YTM 7.92% 9.58% 11.23% 12.89% 14.55% YTW 7.03% 8.22% 9.11% 9.91% 10.46% 102.50 YTM 7.85% 9.48% 11.11% 12.75% 14.38% YTW 6.76% 7.93% 8.81% 9.61% 10.16% 103 YTM 7.78% 9.39% 10.99% 12.60% 14.21% YTW 6.49% 7.66% 8.52% 9.32% 9.87% *The current price of gold appears to be over 1400 per ounce, while a reasonable price target for buying the bonds appears to be about 102.
  7. WOW! "Do the Math!" (on the influx of Chinese workers into Manila & PH) Landlords big winners as Philippines bets on Chinese gaming boom Over 100,000 Work permits for Chinese (& others come w/o permits) There are only about 120,000 condo units in Greater Manila. Do the math ! "Any Filipino landlords are laying out welcome mats for the surging number of Chinese coming to Manila to work in online gaming companies taking sports and casino bets, undeterred by simmering anti-China sentiment and a common perception that Chinese are taking Filipino jobs. “I was afraid at first because I heard so many bad things abut Chinese tenants but I was convinced later on when my friends told me they were doing the same”, said Tessie. “It’s benefiting people like me who need to earn”, said the 63-year-old housewife. Her home is close to a two-tower office building where five of the nine floors are used by Chinese gaming firms. A Chinese restaurant and Chinese tea shop downstairs do brisk trade. " . . . MORE : scroll down > === Check out this Meetup with Manila Real Estate Investors http://meetu.ps/e/GTWpN/1Gk3J/d
  8. > MORE: "may not last longer than Duterte’s six-year term in office" Lawmakers are growingly worried that the rising number of Chinese workers could lead to local strife and increase the competition for jobs when 2.29 million Filipinos are unemployed. The issue is being compounded by the arrest of hundreds of undocumented Chinese workers in illegal online gambling outfits and construction sites and the discovery by authorities that some of these entities have not been paying correct taxes. But Duterte has called for tolerance. “The Chinese, let them work here. Let them be. Why? We have 300,000 Filipinos in China. That’s why I can’t just say, leave, or have them deported. What if they make all the 300,000 (Filipinos) leave”, Duterte said in a speech in February. Filipino businessman JP Gaspar, who is renting out his family’s four-bedroom home to Chinese nationals for 100,000 pesos a month, said he is aware the country’s embrace of China may not last longer than Duterte’s six-year term in office. “In the meantime, I’ll grab the opportunity”, Gaspar said. For a list of approved Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators, click bit.ly/327dbEv > https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china-labour/landlords-big-winners-as-philippines-bets-on-chinese-gaming-boom-idUSKCN1TX0NJ
  9. Landlords big winners as Philippines bets on Chinese gaming boom Over 100,000 Work permits for Chinese (& others come w/o permits) There are only about 120,000 condo units in Greater Manila. Do the math ! ... Many Filipino landlords are laying out welcome mats for the surging number of Chinese coming to Manila to work in online gaming companies taking sports and casino bets, undeterred by simmering anti-China sentiment and a common perception that Chinese are taking Filipino jobs. “I was afraid at first because I heard so many bad things abut Chinese tenants but I was convinced later on when my friends told me they were doing the same”, said Tessie. “It’s benefiting people like me who need to earn”, said the 63-year-old housewife. Her home is close to a two-tower office building where five of the nine floors are used by Chinese gaming firms. A Chinese restaurant and Chinese tea shop downstairs do brisk trade. ... The influx started in 2016, coinciding with the rise of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who since coming into power has pursued warmer ties with China, and the gaming regulator’s move to license these internet gambling operators. The number of Chinese work permit holders nearly quadrupled in two years to 109,222 in 2018, government data showed, making China the biggest source of expatriate workers in the Philippines. In comparison, there were 4,477 work permit holders from Japan and 622 from the United States last year. The arrival of Philippine offshore gaming operators, better known as POGOs, has become a major boon for the property market just as it was getting crimped by a slowdown in the country’s $24 billion outsourcing sector. OFFICE, HOME RENTS SURGE Philippine gaming regulators have so far licensed 56 POGOs from 35 in 2016. They have also accredited 204 gaming support providers that market their products and render customer service to players abroad, among other services. Reuters requested comment from at least two POGOs whose contact details were available online but they did not respond. Reuters also visited at least one gaming tenant in a building in the main Makati business district but was denied entry. POGOs will likely take up 1 million square meters of office space in Manila by year-end, Andaya said, nearly 12 times more than in the last quarter of 2016. ( 1,000,000 sm / 5= 200,000 jobs, could be MORE, if double or triple shifting is happening at the desk space ) Office rents in the Manila Bay area, which has the highest concentration of POGOs, have risen as much as 150% over the past two years, with some renting up for 1,500 pesos per square meter, Andaya said, comparable to rents in Makati. ( How long will it last? ) > https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-china-labour/landlords-big-winners-as-philippines-bets-on-chinese-gaming-boom-idUSKCN1TX0NJ
  10. Previously, I thought the breakout point was $1.80, near the Moving Average But now I think key resistance level is $1.85-1.90. If it goes above that, MUX may quickly shoot up to $2.20 or so MUX ... update / Last: $1.85 +0.06
  11. The energy complex fell yesterday. Crude oil was down about 5% OIH- etc... update / Last: Sym. : Last : chg.: % chg. : ——-: Yr.Low-High : off Low: vsHigh SWN: $2.88 -0.18, -5.88% (52wk: $2.85 - 6.23): + 0.4% : - 53.8% NGas $2.24. -0.03, -1.19%. ($2.13 - 4.93): + 5.2% : - 54.6% WTI : $56.25 -2.84, -4.81%. ($42.36 - 66.60): +32.8% : - 15.5% USO: $11.70 -0.58, -4.72% ($9.23 - 16.24): +26.8% : - 28.0% OIH.: $14.44 -0.48, -3.22% ($13.01 - 27.45): +11.0% : - 47.4% BTU: $22.95 -1.23, -5.09%. ($21.42 - 46.27): + 7.1% : - 50.4% CHK: $ 1.85 -0.11, -5.61%. ($1.71- $5.60): + 8.2% : - 67.0% CNQ: $26.58 -0.39, -1.45%. (21.85- 37.41): +21.6% : -28.9% ECA : $ 4.96. -0.18, -3.50%. ($4.56- 14.28): + 8.8% : - 65.3% COP : $60.10 -2.15, -3.45%. ($56.75- 80.24): + 5.9% : - 25.1% ====
  12. "BOUGHT a few shares of SWN, as it fell to new lows." (7/2019) SWN / Southwestern Energy ... updated: 2020: $6.20 +0.17 / XOI: $1,819 = .055% == WHY Down so much? The energy complex fell yesterday. Crude oil was down about 5% OIH- etc... update / Last: Sym. : Last : chg.: % chg. : ——-: Yr.Low-High : off Low: vsHigh SWN: $2.88 -0.18, -5.88% (52wk: $2.85 - 6.23): + 0.4% : - 53.8% NGas $2.24. -0.03, -1.19%. ($2.13 - 4.93): + 5.2% : - 54.6% WTI : $56.25 -2.84, -4.81%. ($42.36 - 66.60): +32.8% : - 15.5% USO: $11.70 -0.58, -4.72% ($9.23 - 16.24): +26.8% : - 28.0% OIH.: $14.44 -0.48, -3.22%. ($13.01 - 27.45): +11.0% : - 47.4% BTU: $22.95 -1.23, -5.09%. ($21.42 - 46.27): + 7.1% : - 50.4% CHK: $ 1.85 -0.11, -5.61%. ($1.71- $5.60): + 8.2% : - 67.0% CNQ: $26.58 -0.39, -1.45%. (21.85- 37.41): +21.6% : -28.9% ECA : $ 4.96. -0.18, -3.50%. ($4.56- 14.28): + 8.8% : - 65.3% COP : $60.10 -2.15, -3.45%. ($56.75- 80.24): + 5.9% : - 25.1% ====
  13. maybe Look at some others I own: ROXG.t, HRT.t, RRI.v
  14. TOPPING PROCESS underway? The Lonely new high of the SPY IWM, XLF, SPY etc ... update : SOXX-etc : FAZ & TZA ... update : Last: Ratio: FAZ to-TZA
  15. I still have some of these. And have a small profit on what I have left NGD ... update ; / Last: $0.94 +$0.09 It seems to have enough momentum now to punch through resistance near $1.00 But I may let some go "just in case" it does not Feb.2, I said: "I Sold NGD Jan.2020 $1.50 calls" I have already bought them back at a nice profit - a messy situation is now easy to trade New Gold Hosts Rainy River Site Tours New Gold Inc. (NGD) (“New Gold” or the “Company”) announces that it is hosting tours of the Rainy River Mine for analysts and institutional investors on June 26 and 27, 2019. The presentation to be used during management’s briefing sessions will be posted on the New Gold (NGD) website at www.newgold.com in the morning today.
  16. China Stocks jump... as Trade talks are "back on" HK2823 / iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF HK2823 vs hk10, hk101 ... 6mos : 10d / Last: $15.32 +0.38, +2.54%. Hk10: $21.85, +0.92, Hk101: $18.64, +0.32%
  17. NATGAS & Natgas stocks vs. Stock Indicies End.Qtr: NGas : XOI : Ratio :: EndQ : NGas : XOI : Ratio : Q3’22: $6.766 / 1,504 = 0.450%, Q3’23: $2.929 / 1,933= 0.152% yrE'22 $4.104 / 1,787 = 0.230%, yrE'23 $2.327 / 1,862= 0.125% Q1’23: $2.216 / 1,732 = 0.128%, Q1’24: $1.763 / 2,149= 0.082% Q2’23: $2.774 / 1,679 = 0.165%, Q2’24: $2.598 / 2,045= 0.127% 08.26.24; S: 108.7 / 104.3 Bcf = 104.2%: $2.12/ 2,010: 0.105% .. 9/'22> Apa: Swn: Soil : XOI / Arca Oil Idx (2,010) vs. SPY ($561, 27.9%), GLD ($233, 11.6%) .. 2014: 2019: 2023: Ytd: 10d: / XOI (1,870): XLE (86.63, 4.63%), USO (69.27, 3.70%). SPY ($561, 30.0%), GLD ($233, 12.5%) NatGAS ($2.12) is way off its High / XOI (2,010) = 0.105%. 2014: 2019: 2023: Ytd: 10d: static: Apa-Ytd: Soil: 2014: static: 2009: 2.12 APA (28.57)/ XOI-1983=1.44%; UGI(24.66, 1.24%), EQT(32.60,1.64%), UNG:13.20 > 2019: 9/’22: Ytd: SOIL(2.79)/ XOI-1983=.14%; BTE (4.84,.24%), SGY (6.64,.33%), UNG:13.20; 9/'22: Ytd: APA: mo>2000: 2008: wk>'18: '20(ex.Eqt): '22: PER: 3.15, Yld: 3.47% (R:26.81 to 46.145), BV: $14.66. ytd: 10d: 2008: >2000: Natgas to WTIC NatGas ($2.12) to XOI (2,010) === Natural Gas Recovers From Multi-Year Lows on Supply Data - Jan.2019 The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. However, the injection was higher than the five-year average and the year-ago rise. Therefore, despite a slight recovery, natural gas prices remained close to the lowest levels in more than three years because of growing fears that soaring production is outpacing demand growth. Analysis: Less-Than-Expected Rise in Storage Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 98 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Jun 21, below the guidance (of 100 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. However, the increase was higher than the five-year (2014-2018) average net injection of 70 Bcf and last year’s increase of 71 Bcf for the reported week. The latest rise in inventories puts total natural gas stocks at 2.301 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) - 236 Bcf (11.4%) above 2018 levels at this time but 171 Bcf (6.9%) under the five-year average. Fundamentally speaking, total supply of natural gas averaged 94.2 Bcf per day, essentially unchanged on a weekly basis. While dry production inched up to 89.6 Bcf per day from 89 Bcf per day, 2% less gas flowed into the country from Canada. Meanwhile, daily consumption was up 3.3% to 84.1 Bcf compared to 81.4 Bcf in the previous week primarily due to strong power sector demand amid warmer weather across the Southeast region. Prices Recover Somewhat The slightly smaller-than-expected climb in U.S. supplies drove a 5.6% weekly gain for natural gas – the best week since January – erasing some of the steep losses that have taken the commodity to lows not seen since May 2016. Still, natural gas – at $2.308 per MMBtu – is far off the $3.722 per MMBtu 2019-high reached in January. Last week, the fuel hit a more than three-year low of $2.185. ==== WINTER 2023-24 UPDATE, ( yrE'23: $2.327 / xoi-1,862= 0.125% ) Why are you projecting lower natural gas prices? Dena Wiggins: Demand for natural gas is projected to set a new record this winter, but record production, higher-than average storage, and a slowing economy will provide ample supply. Together these factors will place slight downward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last winter. • It’s important that we first look at natural gas supply. Natural gas production has been at an all-time high for over a year, mainly due to the ability of natural gas producers to incorporate cutting edge technologies and efficiencies gained from experience to produce more with each rig. For example, one rig can now be used to develop up to a dozen wells in a single location. These efficiencies are further bolstered by strategic use of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCS) that can bring supply to market quickly. Our Outlook is forecasting this winter’s daily production to average more than 101 Bcf/d, which is slightly more than last winter. Combined with a slight increase in Canadian imports and very low levels of LNG imports, we expect supply to put downward pressure on natural gas prices. • Projections for the economy and natural gas storage are both putting downward pressure on prices. The U.S. is expected to enter winter 2 percent above the 5-year average with 3.7 Tcf of gas in storage, considerably more than last winter’s 3.5 Tcf levels, and the GDP growth is expected to be around 1.3 percent. • Meanwhile, a winter that is 3% colder than last winter, and 3% colder than the last three winters, as well as an increase in demand is putting upward pressure on prices. Customer demand is projected to average 121.4 Bcf/day, a nearly 3 percent increase winter-over-winter, primarily in the export sector and residential and commercial sector. > https://www.ngsa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/01/NGSA_Winter-QA.pdf Recent, DAILY Suppy / Demand: ( xx / xx ) > https://www.ngsa.org/daily-natural-gas/
  18. Today we have: / Friday chart added in edit ... update/ Last: $21.65 +0.50 / $18.58 +0.06 = Gap: $3.07, r-117.% POP UP! HK10 / Hang Lung Group. : $22.00 +0.85, +4.02% Meanwhile HK101 / Hang Lung Properties : $18.60 +0.08, +0.43% ————————————------> Gap : $ 3.40 : +0.77, r-118.3% I managed to buy some Hk10 shares at $20.45 in that recent dip
  19. Hang Lung Properties (HK101) keeps outperforming HL Group - because of the Yield maybe? HK101 - vs. HK10 & HK2823 ... 10d : 6mo : Last: : 6mo : Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / Dv.80 : Dv.75 : Y.Gap: R-Yields: BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.% / 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: r107.%. : Earns/sh.: $03.88: $01.80: $2.08: r216.%/ Dividends : $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05 : r107.%/ 06/27/19: $21.15: $18.52: $2.63 : r114.%/ 3.78% 4.05%: 0.27%: r93.3%: 05/26/19: $20.50: $18.46: $2.04 : r111.%/ 05/16/19: $21.50: $17.66: $3.84 : r122.%/ 3.72% 4.25%: 0.53%: r87.5%: 12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02 : r134.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%: r79.7%: 06/29/18: $22.00: $16.18: $5.82 : r136.%/ 12/29/17: $28.75: $19.10: $9.65 : r151.%/ 06/30/17: $32.30: $19.50: 12.80 : r166.%/ 12/31/16: $26.50: $16.02: 10.48 : r165.%/ 3.02% 4.68%: 1.66%: r64.5%: ————— THAT was yesterday. Today we have: POP UP! HK10 / Hang Lung Group. : $22.00 +0.85, +4.02% Meanwhile HK101 / Hang Lung Properties : $18.60 +0.08, +0.43% ————————————------> Gap : $ 3.40 : +0.77, r-118.3% I managed to buy some Hk10 shares at $20.45 in that recent dip
  20. Insider Selling I think this is "no reason to freak out" - since the stock is up a long way, retesting highs But some Stockhouse posters are freaking out: Lombardo Paredes Arenas Chief Executive Officer sold 185,000 Jose Ignacio Noguera; Vice President, Corporate Affairs sold 110,000. Thanks for showing confidence in your company. Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29866870#G6Gr2whe9TfG8vZC.99
  21. GCM / Gran Columbia Gold a little off the high, as Gold eases back GCM.t ... update / Last: C$4.37 -$0.09, -2.02%  GCM.wt.B ... update / Last: C$2.47 -$0.09, -3.52% I bought some shares yesterday in Sandspring, where GCM owns XX% SSP.v... update : vs.GCM / Last: C$0.200, +0.005 Yesterday, the closes were: $xx, $xx, $xx / wtB/GCM= xx, SSP/GCM= xx, SSP/Gcm.WtB= xx DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B : Vol. : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: %IV : %442/ SSP.v : %Gcm 09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.00%, 48.9/ $0.240, 11.1% 09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 4.12%, 50.9/ $0.240, 10.7% 10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 12.1%, 52.2/ $0.215, 9.27% 11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 25.0%, 57.2/ $0.180, 7.11% 12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 43.5%, 63.8/ $0.245, 8.69% 01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 70.6%, 76.1/ $0.290, 8.63% 02/19/19: $4.42: $2.42, 69.4k : 56.8% : 2.210: 0.210 : 91.3%, 100./ $0.295, 6.67%: wt.High Close ! 02/28/19: $4.40: $2.41, 15.9k : 54.7% : 2.200: 0.210 : 91.3%, 99.6/ $0.265, 6.02% 03/29/19: $3.67: $1.80, 30.5k : 49.0% : 1.440: 0.360 : 80.0%, 83.0/ $0.230, 6.27% 04/30/19: $3.34: $1.70, 12.3k : 50.9% : 1.130: 0.570 : 66.5%, 75.6/ $0.170, 5.09% 05/13/19: $3.31: $1.67, 08.5k : 50.5% : 1.100: 0.570 : 65.8%, 74.9/ $0.160, 4.83% 05/16/19: $3.69: $1.95, 08.1k : 52.8% : 1.480: 0.470 : 75.9%, 83.5/ $0.160, 4.34% 05/31/19: $3.49: $1.90, 21.3k : 54.4% : 1.280: 0.620 : 67.4%, 79.0/ $0.170, 4.87% 06/17/19: $4.57: $2.57, 32.1k : 56.2% : 2.360: 0.210 : 91.8%, 103./ $0.200, 4.37%: wt.High Close ! 06/25/19: $4.37: $2.47, 18.7k : 56.5% : 2.160: 0.310 : 87.4%, 98.9/ $0.200, 4.57% =================== Default seems to be: Wt.B trades at 50% of GCM. but more as the GCM price exceeds $3.50 SSP is down to under 5% of GCM. So cheap, I could not resist buying some SSP.v shares GCM.t -vs. SSP, etc. ... 1/2016 : 1/2017 : 1/2018 : 12mos: 10d : C$0.16 / C$3.31 = 4.83%
  22. Exploration Stocks: LRA/Lara or RRI/Riverside ? LRA vs-RRI ... update : RRI vs-LRA ... 10 d : Statistical Profile EXPLORERS — : Price: MkCap : ShOS : BkVal.: Cash : Debt : EntV. : ebitda : Earns : AT-H : Yr-H : LRA : Lara Expl.: 0.48 : 18.54M: 38.6M: $0.07: 2.41m: 000m: 16.1m: (1.61m (0.075: $2.00: $0.48: RRI. : Riverside : 0.15 : 09.40M: 62.7M: $0.19: 5.24m: 000m: 3.54m: (839k (0.018: $1.30: $0.32: ============ Ratio: 31.3% - 0.15 / 0.48
  23. VALUATION MODEL example, for Bellagio in BGC Bellagio Tower is located at Burgos Circle in Bonafacio Global City The Hallmark of Opulence Feast on nature’s masterpiece. The Manila golf course’s priceless scenery, reserved for your viewing pleasure, is best enjoyed from the comfort of your home. Watch the play of light over an ever changing palette of Zoysia-covered fairways. ... At the Bellagio, you are part of Forbes Town Center. @6.5% interest rate, "REALISTIC" Case? 60m-Loft: R: p950: 57k, 684k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 582k / 6.5= P8,965K: 149.2k Bellagio : RENT est. = x12mo : Costs: Assoc.+PropTax/ IR = Est.Value : /sqM @7%: 60m-Loft: R: p750: 45k, 540k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 438k / 7%= P 6,257k: 104.3k 60m-Loft: R: p800: 48k, 576k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 474k / 7%= P 6,771k: 112.8k 60m-Loft: R: p900: 54k, 648k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 546k / 7%= P 7,800K: 130.0k 60m-Loft: R: 1,000: 60k, 720k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 618k / 7%= P 8,829K: 147.1k 60m-Loft: R: 1,100: 66k, 792k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 690k / 7%= P 9,857K: 164.3k 60m-Loft: R: 1,162 : 70k, 840k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 738k / 7%= P10,543K: 166.7k @6.5% REALISTIC? 60m-Loft R: p950: 57k, 684k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 582k / 6.5= P8,965K: 149.2k @6%: 60m-Loft: R: p750: 45k, 540k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 438k / 6%= P 7,300k: 121.7k 60m-Loft: R: 1,000: 60k, 720k : - 72k, 30k: 102k = 618k / 6%= P10,300k: 171.7k === BTW, in the current “Overheated” or “Firm” seller’s market, it is not usual to see Properties sold at prices ABOVE the Valuation estimates. Also, if interest rates drop to 6%, the Value at p1000 psm rises by P1.47Million. And NEW property prices are far higher than these valuations. But a smart buyer will aim to buy at these levels (or even less) Following, As Listed on the PHrealestate website Type / Size: Price- : Per sq.m : Studio : 43 : 4,900k: P114.0k/ sm 1 BR. : 43 : 5,500k: P127.9k 2 BR. : 67 : 10.5 M : P156.7k 3 BR. : 125: 19.0 M : P152.0k ===== Not sure how up-to-date these prices are. But it is weird to see the much lower Per Sq M prices for smaller units
  24. ZZ vs RZZ.v/ Abitibi, AEM/ Agnico & AUY/ Yamana ... since 1/2014 : 1/2015 : 7/2015 :: 2yr : 1yr /
  25. How Real is this 14% Yield opportunity? Look how SMDC is trying to Target foreign investors - talking about High Yields Invest in a luxury residential apartment in Pasay City, a major international commercial hub where rental demand is high, and average yields stand at 14%! Sail Residences is located in the thriving area of Pasay City in Manila - a prime business and entertainment district. There is huge rental demand due to a shortage of housing options in the area, with average yields of 14%! 1 -beds start at $155,000 per unit, and 2-beds from $265,000. All units include a private balcony and 5-star amenities such as swimming pools, a gym, jacuzzi, and concierge. Structured payment plans on offer with 15% payable over 47 months, and the balance over 5 years. === I believe this is Utterly dishonest! What they seem to be doing here is talking about the yield earned by those who invested YEARS AGO at lower prices with the RENTS OF TODAY "1 -beds start at $155,000 per unit," at P51 per USD, that is: P3million for a 1BR unit - is this possible today? No! I think today's price is P7 million or more This sort of high yield return was available for buyers of many projects, using the same "trick" My own San Lorenzo studio cost P2.05M in 2015, and is now rented at P24k. That's a 14% Gross yield. But this calculation ignores certain important details + I paid Cash, and had to wait several months before I moved in - getting no return on investment while waiting + I spent something like P250k on furniture & fixtures - Gross yield: P24k on P2.3M = 12.5% + My "return" for the first 3.5 years was use of the property, not a cash return + The current rent is more than I would achieve if I rented to the average tenant at the average rent (Example: If 22k rent to Pinoy tenant, then Gross yield comes down to 11.5% on P2.3M.) + Net yield is lower. After commissions to the agent, and assoc. fees, it is 10.1% to current tenant. 9.1%, rented to Pinoy. REPEATABLE? Probably not. Just because this apparent high return was achieved once over a 4-5 year period does not mean it will be achieved again. During this period, Mainland chinese have flooded into certain parts of Manila and pushed up rents dramatically. Without this (unexpected) surge in demand, rents would be lower and yields lower.
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