drbubb

Sold RDC: 25x Apr.$6C @ 5.4 = $13,500 Remember, these cost me $7,275 ($2.91), so a 85,6% gain And were "financed" by the Short sale of OIH Puts OIH Jan.$20P : $4.35-4.45/ mid$4.40 x3700= $16,280 If I paid $13,500 to buyback those Puts, it would be: $3.65 - near my $3.50 target

One buying the Other?? ... at a raise bid Ensco proposes raising stock exchange ratio for Rowan buyout to 2.600 from 2.215 Ensco raises proposed stock exchange ratio for buyout bid for Rowan Ensco raises proposed stock exchange ratio for buyout bid for Rowan By Tomi Kilgore Published: Jan 14, 2019 Shares of Ensco PLC ESV, -0.80% sank 4.8% in premarket trade Monday, after the oil services company said it proposed raising the stock exchange ratio for its buyout bid of Rowan Companies RDC, +7.16% after Ensco's stock tumbled since the deal was announced in October. Rowan's stock rose 0.7% ahead of the open. Under the new proposal, Ensco would exchange 2.600 of its shares for each Rowan share outstanding, up from a previous proposal of 2.215 shares. Based on Friday's closing prices, the new ratio would value Rowan's stock at $11.34 each. That's 8.2% above Friday's closing price for Rowan's stock, but 39.6% below the implied value of the original deal, which was announced ahead of the Oct. 8 open.

BUBBLE BURSTING DEFERRED! (back in Jan. 2019, 2023 update shows what happened) Falling Libor rate helped to "save" Philippine Property stocks in early 2019 : Update : Propx3 : SMPH: P38.35 / ALI: P32.65 / MEG: P2.13 / DLBR: N/A ( Jan. 2023 chart, below) OLD: Original : Propx3 : SMPH: P39.00 / ALI: P44.35 / MEG: P5.00 / DLBR: 18.80 ( Jan. 2019 chart, below) SMPH: P39.00 Foreign investors looking to invest in the Philippines will be very aware of Libor rates. And there will be a correlation between US Libor and interest rate pressures in PHL.

Falling Libor rates "saved" Philippine Property stocks : Update : SMPH: P39.00 / ALI: P44.35 / MEG: P5.00 / DLBR: 18.80 SMPH: P39.00 Foreign investors looking to invest in the Philippines will be very aware of Libor rates. And there will be a correlation between US Libor and interest rate pressures in PHL.

CHINA BROADCASTS NEVER-BEFORE-SEEN PICTURES OF THE FAR SIDE OF THE MOON China has broadcast photos taken from the far side of the Moon, showcasing an entire world that has never been explored from the surface before. Even the photos themselves are a triumph for the groundbreaking mission to the largely inaccessible part of our near neighbour, nicknamed the dark side because it permanently faces away from the Earth and blocks radio signals. The pictures on state broadcaster CCTV showed the Jade Rabbit 2 rover and the Chang'e 4 spacecraft that transported it on the first-ever soft landing on the far side of the moon, which always faces away from Earth. Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5cQk5Okgz

ENHANCING the Transport Infrastructure of Makati & BGC According to a Megaworld email, here is what is planned \

ENHANCING the Transport Infrastructure of Makati & BGC According to a Megaworld email, here is what is planned Golden Age of Infrastructure Aiming to be the most modern city in the Philippines, Philippine government is making great infrastructure to make Fort Bonifacio more accessible and to bring convenience on traffic within the next years to 2025. \ Megaworld focuses mainly on the infrastructure that will connect Bonifacio Global City, Mckinley Hill and Mckinley West as one Fort Bonifacio. As MEG sees it, Bonifacio Global City is a financial district in Fort Bonifacio where iconic developments and the center of Fort. Mckinley Hill is the most complete community in Fort Bonifacio with residences, offices, embassies, international schools and a world-class mall. Mckinley West is the most exclusive community of Fort Bonifacio beside Forbes Park, Manila Polo Club, Manila Golf Country Club. It is very near Dasmarinas Village and NAIA International Airport. Megaworld aims to develop it as the second Uptown Bonifacio. (MEG herein ignores the proposed subway running through Makati, and connecting it to BGC.)

The OIH Puts may be coming into a Buying Window, if OIH rises another $1-2 OIH - Jan.$20 Put ... update : Last $4.35-$4.45 (mid-$4.40) at $16.38, that's IV: $3.62, TV: $0.98 OIH itself looks like it may run into resistance at perhaps $18.00 OIH ... update : 10d : Last $16.38 (O: 16.32 / H: 16.42 / L: 16.05 ) ==

Newgold pulls back on lighter volume NGD / Newgold ... update : $1.09 - 0.02 ==

Yeah, I was disappointed too. The hallways made me think of college dormitories I saw decades ago. Having said this, the rooms themselves are decent, and the project may be redeemed by the excellent Amenities, & the location

HK10 has rallied back to $21. But I think it may break resistance there and head toward $23, perhaps higher HK10 ... 5-yr : 2-yr : $20.95 "The PACK" is running up... Led by HSI possibly ==

Taking a second look at this one DHX.t / DHX Media ... update : 5-yr : xx

I put Aecon Debs on my Watch list... partly because I like the chart ARE.DB.C / Aecon Group 5% 31Dec.2023 : Conv.$24.00 @$103.00, YTM: 4.33% (model: $112.06, 8.8% U/val.) ARE.t / Aecon ... all-data : 5-yr : 1-yr : 10d / Last: $17.68 vs. $24.00 conversion price, needs 35.7% gain ==

top gold stk 2019 posted January 08, 2019 02:31 pm by rotax1 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4232056-top-gold-stocks-2019 Honorable Mention Picks for 2019 Here are a few: Gran Colombia Gold (OTCPK:TPRFF😞 I view Columbia as one of the more risky places to mine, which is one of the reasons I've left it off the top 10 list. But I have to admit that Gran Colombia Gold's stock is very undervalued entering 2019, especially after the company's debt restructuring. It is a much safer stock now than a few years ago. For the 9 months ended 2018, Gran Colombia has produced 162,741 ounces of gold at $899/AISC, producing $78 million EBITDA year-to-date, putting it on pace to meet or exceed its full-year guidance of 214,000 - 220,000 ounces at $950/AISC. With $100+ million in annual EBITDA and an enterprise value of just $186 million, Gran Colombia is trading at an EV/EBITDA of under 2X which is quite low. Gran Colombia is a medium-to-high-risk, high-reward pick for 2019, and it's a company I'll be keeping a close eye on early in the year. ...read more

OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, which is Now up $12,289, +24.3% OIH-etc ... update : Sym. / Price : x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit : RDC : $10.41: x2500= 26,025: $6.C : $15.0K: $11,025: $7,275: $3,750 MDR : $ 8.15 : x2500= 20,375: $5.C : $12.5K: $ 7,875 : $6,400: $1,475 ESV : $ 4.44 : x5000= 22,200: $2.C : $10.0K: $12,200: $8,400: $3,800 Total: =========== > 68,600: ==== : $37.5K : 31,100 : 22,075 $9,025 OIH : $15.94: x3700= 58,978: 20.C : $74.0K: (15,022): 21,120 $6,098 : $15,123 $9,025/3700: $2.44: $13.50 $6,098/3700: $1.65: $14.29 IV, J'20-$20Put: ($4.50-4.85): mid$4.68 -IV:$4.06 = TV:$0.62 : ($2,294) Port.Gain: $15,123 -(TV: $2,294)= $12,829 // Buyback of Put: $17,316 I value this Portfolio against a Notional 3,700 shares of OIH at b/e $14.29 = $52,873 So +$12,289 is like a 24.3% gain, where I simply used "Buying Power" to create this portfolio

Another Great day for NGD ... chart Last: 1.08 +0.12, +12.50% Open: 1.01 / High: 1.11 / Low: 0.997 / Volume: 7,677,773 That's HUGE Volume, so the move may continue, Though I see some resistance at $1.11 - 1.12 Bullboard Comments: New Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter posted January 08, 2019 08:30 am by uto https://www.gurufocus.com/news/796399/new-gold-reports-strong-fourth-quarter PR Newswire TORONTO, Jan. 8, 2019 Rainy River Achieves Revised Annual Guidance New Afton Exceeds Annual...read more RE:New Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter posted January 08, 2019 09:51 am by AuNuggets A great job by the new Management team for a turnaround to this point. Glad I loaded up several months ago when the stock was sold off. Production is rising and the company is now more disciplined...read more NGD: unlimited upside! posted January 08, 2019 10:16 am by Royal10 I bought my first positions in Sept. 2018, when M. Renaud ADAMS, former president and CEO of Richmont Mines, was named as the new leader at NGD. Six months later, we can see the good work done by M...read more RE:RE:New Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter posted January 08, 2019 01:17 pm by domcolumba So so glad that I loaded up on Jan 2 and 3. Another turnaround story like Detour Gold. Dom rate and reply

Good News ! NEW GOLD REPORTS STRONG FOURTH QUARTER New Gold Inc. has released strong fourth quarter operating results from the Rainy River and New Afton mines, with Rainy River achieving annual revised gold production guidance and New Afton exceeding annual gold production guidance as well as achieving the high end of annual copper production guidance. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Fourth quarter and recent operational highlights: Total gold production for the quarter was 110,559 ounces and 455,448 ounces for the year, including 97,428 ounces and 315,483 ounces, respectively, from continuing operations (1). The Rainy River mine reported best-ever quarterly gold production of 77,202 ounces, a 39-per-cent increase over the prior quarter. The stronger operational performance achieved in September continued into the fourth quarter with the last four months of the year contributing 45 per cent of the 227,284 ounces produced for the year, achieving revised annual guidance. The New Afton mine delivered another solid quarter with gold production of 18,778 ounces, contributing to annual production of 77,329 ounces, which exceeded the high end of annual guidance. New Afton produced 20.8 million pounds of copper for the quarter and 85.1 million pounds for the year, achieving the high end of annual guidance. During the quarter, mine closure activities continued at the Cerro San Pedro mine and 1,448 gold ounces were recovered from residual leaching of the heap leach pads. Consistent with the renewed vision of repositioning the Rainy River mine for long-term success, the company has adopted a disciplined approach to capital allocation as well as mine life optimization. Accordingly, management has deferred the 2019 underground mine development plan to 2020. During 2019, the company will launch a comprehensive review that includes alternative underground mining scenarios with the overall objective of reducing capital and improving the return on investment for the underground portion of the life of mine. Further details will be provided in the 2019 guidance press release, scheduled for release in the second half of January. An internally financed development strategy for the New Afton C zone has been launched, which will extend mine life to 2030 with robust economics. Further details will be provided in the 2019 guidance press release, scheduled for release in the second half of January. "We are pleased to report a strong fourth quarter at both Rainy River and New Afton. It is encouraging to see the improvement in overall performance achieved at Rainy River in the final four months of the year. This marks a pivotal turning point for Rainy River as we reposition the asset for long-term success. The stronger production delivered during these months allowed the operation to comfortably meet revised annual production guidance. > MORE: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aNGD-2703954&symbol=NGD&region=C

Solving for the "Plug Figure" ... then, Replacing it w/100% > $13.00 Valuation for RZZ.v FINANCIAL MODEL, for RZZ - suggests that RZZ is undervalued at under $10 Malarctic Area------- : NSR: P&P.Oz : Q4./'17 : Q2./18 : Q3./18 : Q4./'18 : use 100% & $1300 Barnet-E, Jeffrey----- : 3% : 0,128.K : Ody.,E.Malar., B&J -- : 3% : 2,314.K : ---------> SubT: ========= : 2,442.K : ==================== : Gold Pr. : $1,309 : $1,255: $1,196 : $1,281 : $1,300 : ==================== : Gr.Value: $3.20B : $3.06B: $2.92B : $3.13B : -------------------> Royalty------ : 3.00 % : $96.0M: $91.8M: $87.6M: $93.8M: $93.8M : -------------------> Guess Pct. : 66.5%? : 54.6% : 67.3% : 82.1% : 62.3% -> Plug Figure ! ---------------------> Royalty.V. : rising? : $52.4M: $61.8M: $72.0M : $58.4M: $93.8M @ 100% Share Investments: Yamana -AUY, Price: ==== : ======= : $03.12 : $02.90 : $02.49 : $02.36 : AUY shs outstanding === : ======= : 3350.M: 3350.M : 3350.M: 3350.M: ==================== : Mkt.Cap : $10.5M : $09.7M : $08.3M : $07.9M: AgnicoE.-AEM, Price === : ======= : $46.18 : $45.83 : $34.20 : $40.40 : AEM shs outstanding == : ======= : 379.0M : 379.0M : 379.0M : 379.0M: ==================== : Mkt.Cap : $17.5M : $17.4M : $13.0M : $15.3M: ==================== :Sh.MktCp $28.0M : $27.1M: $21.3M : $23.2M: $23.2M ==================== :US$.MkCp $80.4M : $88.9M: $93.3M : $81.6M: $117.M ==================== :USD.CAD- : x1.257 : x1.314 : x1.291 : x1.364 : x1.364: ==================== :CAD.MCp : 101.1M: 116.8M : 120.5M: 111.3M: 159.6M: ==================== :C$-Cash- : $ 04.5M : $05.3M : $03.2M: $03.0E : $03.0E : ==================== :CAD.MCp.: 105.6M: 122.1M : 123.7M : 114.3M: $163.M: Abitibi-RZZ, Price: ===== :======== : $ 09.26: $ 09.85: $09.89 : $ 9.14 : $13.00 : RZZ shs outstanding == : ======== : 11.40M: 12.40M: 12.51M: 12.51M: =================== : Mkt.Cap. $105.6M: 122.1M: 123.7M: 114.3M: $163.M: Gold Estimated Production 3% NSR (2018-2020) Year Area* Tons Mined (g/t):Oz: M/mined Proc'd Recovered Stockp. Mx1300: /Qtr : Cum'l $ : x$1.300 2018-Q4 JF 907,662 0.70 20,304 12,123 10,826 8,181: $26.4 M: 26.4 : $26.4M: C$34.3M 2019 JF 1,637,121 0.87 45,833 27,339 24,414 18,494: $59.6 M: 14.9 : $86.0M: C$112.M 2020 BA 362,582 0.89 10,327 8,797 7,855 1,530: $11.4 M: 26.4 : $97.4M: C$127.M ==== Solving for the "Plug Figure" in the above model shows... A "plug" of 62.3% of the Expected future Royalty income yields the $9.14 year-end price for RZZ. If you push the percentage up from 62.3% > 100%, then the expected market cap of RZZ + At 100% and $1300 Gold price -> $13.00 per share RESULT: I bought more GZZ shares, as they own 44.8% of RZZ at a low price

Canadian Malartic Royalties (the key asset of RZZ, but not the only one) Information regarding the updated reserve and resource estimates for the areas where Abitibi Royalties holds an NSR interest was provided by Canadian Malartic by way of a "Surface Reserve and Resources Annual Reporting Letter to Abitibi Royalties". The following information was extracted from such letter. Proven and probable reserves have been calculated at a gold price of USD$1,200 per ounce. Stated reserves are in addition to resources. Reserve Estimate for Barnat (East) & Jeffrey (3% NSR) Category Area Tons (Metric) Gold Grade (g/t) Contained Oz Proven Reserve BA+JF 378,449 1.04 12,627 Probable Reserve BA+JF 4,054,393 0.89 115,526 Total Proven & Probable Reserve BA+JF 4,432,842 0.90 128,153 *BA = Barnat, Jeffrey = JF Inferred Resource Estimate for Odyssey, East Malartic, Barnat & Jeffrey (3% NSR) Category Area Tons Metric) Gold Grade (g/t) Contained Oz Inferred Resource ODY-EM-BA-JF 32,779,651 2.2 2,313,925 *BA = Barnat, Jeffrey = JF, Odyssey = ODY, East Malartic = EM Agnico Eagle announced in February that the inferred mineral resource for Odyssey only included a small contribution from the Jupiter Zone (the estimate also included the Odyssey North and South Zones), which is an internal zone that extends from the Odyssey North Zone (Fig. 2). Agnico Eagle states that drilling carried out to date suggests that the Internal Zones could increase mineral resources and enhance the economics of the project by adding higher-grade ounces that would require minimal additional infrastructure to access. Additional drilling is required to fully understand the complex nature of these zones so that they might be integrated into the mineral resource model. Please see Fig. 3 for the area of focus at East Malartic that the Company believes was the basis for the resource estimate relative to East Malartic's mineralized envelope. > MORE: https://www.abitibiroyalties.com/news/2018/march19/ BACK of Envelope Calculations; Malarctic Area--- : NSR: P&P.Oz : 12/17 : 06/18 : 12/18 : Barnet-E, Jeffrey- : 3% : 0,128.K : Ody.,E.Malar., B&J : 3% : 2,314.K : ---------> total : === : 2,442.K : $00.0M: $00.0M: $00.0M: (developed into a Financial model, just below)

The Abitibi (RZZ) Cluster RZZ -etc: fr. 2016 : 2017 : 2018 // At 9/2018, GZZ, held a 44.76% interest in RZZ. Rob McEwen held 11.1% : 2017 : : 2018 : WAYS - to narrow the discount to NAV Ratio: GZZ to-RZZ RZZ Presentation : "Why are we buying back shares? I do believe we are trading below NAV." Abitibi Royalties Inc. | Presentation Video | October 2018 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPzm0fcxenE Interview : Mr. Ball & Mr Mullan : Oct. 2018 ==

Someone calculated differently, and put GCM in 5th Place > source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231441-precious-metals-market-2018-winner-wesdome-gold?isDirectRoadblock=false Bullboard Comments: RE:Precious-metals-Winners 2018 with POG >1200$ and no management mistakes (i believe thea will act carefully because our CFO is a high skilled guy) GCM will be a winner in 2019 and 2020 .... its a turnaround-story and far undervalued against its peers ... every quarterly report will put GCM in an better financial position ... / 2. 8 bucks is not the top for this stock, it's only where I think it should be priced right now. (And by the time I susprect it will take the market to catch up to this mark, it may very well still be significantly undervalued.) / 3. Unfortunately we must remember we are a one-mine company in Colombia. Therefore don't ever expect a valuation equivalent to PG or WDO. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#k0bxbxvdcydVhmUg.99 (?? two Columbian mines, not one.) / 4. Gran Colombia Gold against illegal mining Signed by the CEO, Lombardo Paredes Arenas, the letter indicates that in these places the multinational has the exclusive rights over deposits of gold and silver, but that these are exploited by groups of illegal miners without permits and without titles."This represents a significant risk to themselves, our employees, the inhabitants and the environment in the surrounding areas and also endangers the physical integrity and infrastructure of the GCG mines," the letter reads. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#UtcKvU2PfcoegCHW.99

Will take another look at this one... CDE / Coeur Mining ... update :

'splosive! $0.195 +0.035, Percent Change: +21.88% Open: 0.165 / High: 0.195 / Low: 0.165 / Volume: 2,207,806 WM / Wallbridge ... 10d : 6mo : : 6mo : ===

"Like Bats ... out of H3LL" It has been a good start to the year for some stocks I own and have mentioned prominently here. BATS ... update : The best flying bat so far is... ESV / Ensco Plc ... update : Last $4.47, up about 35% in less than 10 days Just a few days ago, I bought June.$2C, paying $1.68. Now with Intrinsic value (at $4.47) of $2.47, so +47%. At $5.50, they would have an intrinsic value of $3.5, or 108% above Cost Meanwhile, MUX would be in the Rats portfolio, ...and may stay there

6.25% debentures on TSX CF.DB.A : Chart : $99.01 > CF.DB.A Quote: https://www.canadastockchannel.com/symbol/cf.dba.ca/ Canaccord Genuity to list 6.25% debentures on TSX 2018-08-20 20:31 ET - Prospectus Approved The Toronto Stock Exchange reports that Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.'s 6.25 per cent convertible unsecured senior subordinated debentures will be listed at 5:01 p.m. on Aug. 21, 2018, for trading at the open on Aug. 22, 2018. According to the TSX, the debentures will trade under the symbol CF.DB.A and Cusip No. 134801 AB 5. As stated in its short form prospectus dated Aug. 14, 2018, the company will issue $51.5-million of debentures in a public offering and $73.5-million of debentures in a concurrent private placement in the minimum principal amount of $1,000 each. It expects to close the financings before the open on Aug. 22, 2018. According to the TSX, the debentures will mature on Dec. 31, 2023, and will bear interest at 6.25 per cent per year, payable semi-annually in arrears on June 30 and Dec. 31 in each year. Assuming the offering closes on Aug. 22, 2018, an initial interest payment of $22.43 per $1,000 principal amount will be made on Dec. 31, 2018. The TSX notes that the holders of the debentures may, at any time before the close of business on the earlier of the business day immediately preceding the maturity date or the business day immediately preceding the redemption date, if a redemption is called, convert their debentures into shares of the company at $10 per share. This conversion price represents a conversion rate of 100 shares per $1,000 principal amount of debentures.