drbubb

Surprizing Correlation: SLV/ Silver & Hang Lung properties "they are not expected to correlate - But they do!" Chart : All-data : 10-yr : 5-yr : from 1/2007 , w/hk10 : Back into a Cyclical upturn? Is Chinese investment the reason? Trade Dollar, 1912 Great Britain-China, minted in Silver In history, Silver was more of a monetary factor in China than Gold

OIH : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665 USO- : $ 9.90: +6.57%: 143% : WTI.cr : $46.22: 83.7% Br Brent $55.24: +8.80% /OILB: $23.77 : 3.90xOIH : 59.6%=OIH/OilB XLE-: $57.19: +6.22% /brent 103.5% : 4.04xOIH Ratio : XLE / Brent Ratio : XLE to OIH

Too late for Santa... A big post-Xmas rally in Stocks, lifts my Oil Service stocks by 6-14% in just one day's trading. OIH etc ... update : Daily from 6.19 : : Daily from 6.19 : An interesting EXPERIMENTAL PORTFOLIO of Oil Service stocks I sold a deep in the money PUT on OIH, to finance the purchase of Deep in-the-money Calls on Drillers. My Out-of-pocket on creating this portfolio was virtually zero, But It should perfom like a $50K+ Portfolio My UPSIDE is on the higher beta stocks, while the downside risk I take is on OIH, which may have greater downside protection Sym./ Price: %change: Opt.Mo.-Stk: $Prem, %stkV = Basis: Gn/Ls: Orig. : Gn/Ls: xQty: Gn/Ls : Calls: T19.54: $2475 RDC : $ 9.02: +11.2%: April'19-$6.0C: $3.30* 36.6% = $2.85 +$0.45: $8.25 : +9.33% x25: +1125 MDR : $ 6.78: +6.27%: May'19-$5.0C: $2.60* 38.3% = $2.50 +$0.10: $6.65 : +1.95% x25: +$250 ESV : $ 3.74: +14.4%: June'19-$2.0C: $1.80, 46.1% = $1.58 +$0.22: $3.58 : +4.45% x50: +1100 Put -: +$5.37: (1665) = $810 OIH : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665 USO- : $ 9.90: +6.57%: 143% : WTI.cr : $46.22: 83.7% Br Brent $55.24: +8.80% /OILB: $23.77 : 3.90xOIH : 59.6%=OIH/OilB XLE- : $57.19: +6.22% /brent 103.5% : 4.04xOIH ==== B/ev : $13.95: - 0.22 = +$ 810/3700 x14.17= $52,429 The Overall portfolio is now in profit (+$810), for the first time, and equivalent breakeven on OIH is $13.95 Ratio: OIH to-USO may have reached a major low near 141% : $0.00 / $0.00 = 100% ==

Dems cannot see their own shadow(s)... They blame all chaos on Trump Zen master explains : VIDEO Dems Accuse Trump Of "Plunging Country Into Chaos," End Of Shutdown "Hard To See" ... the Democrats just couldn't resist kicking sand in the President's face as the majority of Americans tune out for the holiday. In a joint statement from Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leaders chided Trump for "plunging the country into chaos" by obeying the whims of conservative talk radio hosts, repeatedly lashing out at the Federal Reserve and "firing" the Secretary of Defense. Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5aj4IoIjm / 2 / President Trump Wins Back Ann Coulter with Golden Words: ‘The Complete Wall Will Be Built with Shutdown Money Plus Funds Already in Hand’

Here comes the inventory: Southern California unsold housing inventory now at 6-year high. Housing starting to plateau. It was only a matter of time before inventory started hitting the market and unsold homes started to pile up. Not that home sales ever saw big volume increases but given the low inventory, any normal amount of homes sales pushed home values into the stratosphere. So here we are with unsold housing inventory now hitting 6-year highs. The problem of course is affordability causing a decade long shift for households into renting. The Southern California News Group came out with 36,923 listings in the four-county region which amounted to a 22 percent year-over-year increase. Housing markets are slow to shift and this bull market is getting close to celebrating a decade of moving up. The troubling sign is that real estate is now in a boom and bust cycle and with rates still near historical lows, there is little ammunition from the Fed should things go south.

Hang Lung vs Gold, HK2823 ... update :

HK10 now down to just 130% of HK101 - Time to deploy spare cash? HK10 vs-101 ... fr.12/24/17 : w/HK2823 : w/HSI : 10d : ===== : -HSI- : #2823: ratio: HK10,HK101: Ratio : 87001: 3081: G,P,X,V: $Cash: w/Cash: $Overall: $GAIN Start-- : 24,994: 12.42: 20.12: 19.18: 14.00: 137.0% 00.00: 30.05: 2,023.0: 0000.0: 2,023.0: $2,033.0: 11/15 : 26,103: 12.26: 21.29: 21.00: 15.14: 138.7% $3.16: 29.40: 2,153.0: 0000.0: 2,153.0: $2,163.0: $130.0 11/30 : 26,507: 12.06: 21.98: 21.70: 15.84: 137.0% $3.21: 29.75: 2,100.0: 0112.4: 2,223.1: $2,223.1: $190.1 12/21 : 25,651: 11.32: 22.66: 19.78: 15.14: 130.6% $3.20: 30.65: 2,002.6: 0112.4: 2,115.0: $2,124.5: $091.5

The stock market just booked its ugliest Christmas Eve plunge — ever Dow skids to end down 2.9%; S&P 500 on cusp of bear market U.S. oil suffers worst 1-day decline in about three months as risk assets get bludgeoned (WTI -$ $3.06, or 6.7%, to $42.53 ) Oil Service - Bells are Not ringing yet ... MDR etc : OHI-led : The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.71% fell by 2.7% Monday, marking the first session before Christmas that the broad-market benchmark has booked a loss of 1% or greater — ever. That statistic has been confirmed by Dow Jones Market Data, which said the largest decline in the index on the trading day before Christmas was Dec. 23 in 1933. All three indexes have fallen for four straight sessions. The Nasdaq has skidded 8.7% in that time, while the Dow has lost 8% and the S&P 7.7%. The trio is on track for the ugliest monthly drop since October of 2008, during the heart of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Last week was the worst week of trading since the financial crisis of 2008. The Nasdaq officially entered bear-market territory on Friday, and has now plunged 23.6% from its record close set Aug. 29. The S&P has slumped 19.8% from its Sept. 20 record close, and the Dow has slid 18.8% from its Oct. 3 record close. . . . Crude-oil futures on Monday logged their worst one-day drop in about three months and closed at the lowest level in about two years. February West Texas Intermediate CLG9, -6.38% crude oil shed $3.06, or 6.7%, to settle at $42.53 a barrel. That close represents the lowest for WTI since around 2016, and the worst single-session decline for the U.S. oil benchmark since Nov. 23, according to FactSet data. Nagging concerns about global crude output and fears of an economic slowdown internationally have eroded appetite for crude, which has gotten swept up in a broad unraveling of demand for assets perceived as risky.

ECB / Euro Chocolate Buyer posted "The entire developed world is now actively "taxing to death" Chinese flight capital. Australia is the latest. Peter from the Property Club has several videos about the dramatic tax increases occurring in AUS/QsLand. For non resident owners 3pct of the value of the homes will be taxed. This is the highest in the world. This will cause a fall in prices..." > here : Bubble Debate (in PH) To which I responded: TAXES are one of the two ultimate Certainties in Life And not only are they being raised in Oz, Also in NYC, thanks to Trump's tax reforms One year in, tax law faces test with filing season... Exodus of NYC's endangered middle class... New York City’s shrinking middle class is now in full retreat, as masses of our most endangered population depart the city in numbers not seen since the Depression, according to analysts. After decades of sharp income erosion in the face of relentless taxes, escalating living costs and wage reductions through technological changes, the full extent of this shocking exodus is laid bare in the latest US Census data. That shows the city is losing 100 residents each day — with departures exceeding new arrivals. “The rich in New York City are getting richer; the poor are actually getting richer, but not rich enough to be middle class,” said Peter C. Earle, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, who has studied other data, noting the expansion in welfare and entitlement programs. Earle said it isn’t unreasonable to assume middle-class incomes are falling even faster in New York City than in other major US cities, because of the city’s high — and rising — housing and other living costs. New York City’s middle class comprises 48 percent of city residents, with median annual incomes between $30,000 and $60,000. The persistent shrinking of the middle class nationwide — and especially in cities like New York — is evident in boarded-up retail stores, reflecting rising rents and slackening consumer demand. National chain-store locations have plunged in the city by 0.3 percent, to 7,849, this year, according to the Center for an Urban Future. And a record 18 chains, including Aerosoles and Nine West, vacated all their city sites in 2018. Where are they moving to? Philadelphia could be one place. Could be 1 - 1 1/2 hours away by train or car. Prices still seem to be rising there. The biggest place the Middle Class is losing is on the deductibility of Mortgage interest rates. So selling an expensive NYC home, and buying a cheaper one elsewhere, to eliminate some or all of the debt may be a very smart move.

TAXES are one of two Certainties in Life And not only are they being raised in Oz, Also in NYC, thanks to Trump's tax reforms One year in, tax law faces test with filing season... Exodus of NYC's endangered middle class... Where are they moving to? Philadelphia could be one place. Could be 1 - 1 1/2 hours away by train or car. Prices still seem to be rising there

MUX vs GLD (Gold etf) ... from 2.20.16 : MUX.vsMNT (CAD Gold etf) : / 2 / Ratio : MUX to-GLD ==

In 2019, if the Dollar is weak and Gold is strong... All of these may break through resistance and move upwards together... maybe with GCM strongest GCM -vs: Gdxj, MUX, MNT.t (Cad Gold etf)... update : st :

"The Oil Bells" : an Oil Service Options portfolio Size: US$ 50,000+ > roughly eqv. to: 3,700 shs of OIH (x$14 = $51,800) Components: Short Puts of OIH / Long Calls on: RDC, ESV, MDR charts: 2yr : 6mo Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells : fr.6/18 O/ 10d Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells : bells-10d : WHY did I do this? By selling itm puts on OIH...

Some interesting Facts about pyramids, resonances, & why he choose Antarctica as the "location for Atlantis" in his novel Linda Moulton Howe Brian Power: "sound of Atlantis" writer

MUX has a High short interest - almost 30 days - vs. 2 d- NEM, x d- GG, x d- ABX > short-int. : http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=mux&submit=Short+Quote™ Sym : Price : MktCap: ShsOS : ShortOS: PctFlt. : Days : EstVol. : vs-High : vs200d : MUX : $1.70: $531.M : 257.M : 45.7 M : 17.8 % : 29.8d: 00.0M : - 56.2% : - 22.9 % : OOO : $0.00: $0.00 B : 00.0 bn : 000.0 M : 00.0 % : 00.0d: 00.0M : - 00.0 % : + 00.0 % : ===== Historical chart Biggest Short positions: http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html Summary : most of those on the List are below 10 days. Includes: WFT (4d), RIG (8d), ESV (7d)

The Former-Oil-God speaks Legendary Oil Trader Is Bullish On Oil Prices By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 14, 2018 Legendary oil trader Andy Hall, who was nicknamed oil ‘God’ for profitably predicting a bull run in oil prices in the past, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that oil prices would rise from current levels, as they may have hit the bottom after plunging by 30 percent in just two months. “I think with prices hovering around or a little over $50 a barrel, I think you would have to have a pretty negative outlook on the global economy to believe that prices will continue their downward trajectory,” Hall told Bloomberg TV in an interview, noting that he doesn’t see a global recession soon. Moreover, a slump in oil prices like the one we’ve seen over the past two months typically slows down supply growth while boosting demand, if there isn’t a global economic slowdown. Lower prices will undoubtedly impact U.S. production growth, Hall said, but added that the surge in American oil production above expectations has been the biggest surprise this year. In the weeks leading up to the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, Hall was one of the analysts expecting an OPEC-assisted rebound in prices. “The balance of risk at this point favors some sort of recovery,” Hall said in an interview with Bloomberg in November, two weeks before OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners decided to cut a total of 1.2 million bpd of oil production for six month beginning in January, with an option to review the agreement in April. Before the new OPEC+ deal, the stronger U.S. dollar against emerging-market currencies and concerns over the U.S.-China trade war were weighing on demand, while inventories were rising, according to Hall. Hall, the oil trader who had bet on higher oil prices for more than a decade, continued to hold his bullish view even after the 2014 oil price crash. But in the summer of 2017, he closed his main fund Astenbeck after the fund posted double-digit losses. > more: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Legendary-Oil-Trader-Is-Bullish-On-Oil-Prices.html

MOST "Bombed Out" - Candidates ... update : 10d : OIH vs. RDC, ESV, MDR MDR / McDermott Int'l ... all-data : $6.48, 33.0% BV-$0.00/ -76.2% off 2018 high: $ 6.44 > $27.21 ESV / Ensco Plc -------- ... all-data : $3.68, 19.4% BV-$0.00/ -61.3% off 2018 range: ($ 3.57 > $ 9.51) RDC / Rowan Companies ---... all-data : $ 8.57, 21.4% BV-$0.00 / -58.9% off 2018 range : ( $ 8.49 > $20.87 ) A theoretical Options Portfolio (both long & short) Sym/ Month-Strike : $stock :$Prem, %stkV = $inTM +$TmV: TVas%: #Mo: Tv/Mo: Long RDC : April'19-$6.0C: $ 8.25 : $ 2.85, 34.5% = $ 2.25 + $ 0.60 : 07.27%: / 04 : 1.81%: MDR : May'19-$5.0C: $ 6.65 : $ 2.50, 37.6% = $ 1.65 + $ 0.85 : 12.78%: / 05 : 2.13%: ESV : June'19-$2.0C: $ 3.58 : $ 1.65, 46.1% = $ 1.58 + $ 0.07 : 01.96%: / 06 : 0.33%: Short OIH : Jan.'20- $20.P: $14.90 : $ 5.70, 38.3% = $ 5.10 + $ 0.60 : 04.03%: / 13 : 0.31%: ==== Selling OIH in the money Puts can be used to finance the Calls

From Glen Neely, at NEOWAVE : a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally ... then a 50% drop over 3-5 years? cs@neowave.com / 19 Dec 2018 at 23:14 Two days ago, I took a HUGE public risk and issued this S&P warning along with the attached "1-SP daily" chart... After today's wash-out, all NEoWave structural criteria is in place to create a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally (see attached chart). Thereafter, the recovery may slow down but the S&P should continue to advance into mid January. In the top right corner of that chart, you can see the rally predicted to come (red-dashed line). At the end of that projected rally, notice I warned of a "Possible END to Bull Market" in early 2019. Also notice that the "Possible END..." was plotted to occur at a LOWER HIGH. Today's "scary" sell-off (on Dec 29, 2018) pushed the S&P a little lower than expected but it does not alter the overall forecast in Monday's update. What it does do is change the LABELING in that chart. Instead of the S&P rallying to end wave-(D) at a lower high in early 2019, we can now confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high. So, the predicted red-dashed rally will become wave-b of a new bear market, instead. HOW COME I DIDN'T ORIGINALLY PLACE WAVE-(D) AT 2018's HIGH? The MOST important NEoWave innovation, which differentiates NEoWave from orthodox Elliott Wave, is the concept of market "self-confirmation." This is where the start of a new trend MUST move further and faster than the last counter-trend move of the prior pattern. UNTIL TODAY (Dec 19, 2018), the S&P had FAILED to achieve confirmation, which is why I could not objectively place wave-(D) at 2018's high. With today's action, the S&P has FINALLY dropped further and faster than any decline since wave-(C)'s termination - see attached 2-SP monthly (LT) chart. As a result, we can now objectively confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high. Chart 3-SP monthly provides clearer evidence of this year's drop falling further and faster than the prior largest decline that occurred in August 2015. Notice how much faster the drop is now than in 2015. THAT is what constitutes NEoWave Confirmation. If you have a copy of Mastering Elliott Wave, refer to Chapter 6 for more details on this concept. Chart 4-SP weekly gives a more detailed perspective on the progress of the new bear market. It shows the coming bounce as wave-b instead of the future conclusion of wave-(D) at a lower high, which is what I assumed would occur until today's drop finally confirmed wave-(D) was over. Now that we have behavioral proof wave-(D) is over, a more detailed, long-term prediction can be made. See the attached 5-SP 6month chart, which maps out the S&P's expected price action into the end of the next decade. It projects a 3-5 year bear market that will force the S&P to lose about 50% of its current value! If you'd like to keep up with the progress of this new, multi-year BEAR MARKET, please click the below link to subscribe to the NEoWave S&P Forecasting service. By the way, if you're interested in GOLD, Wave structure in that market has cleared up significantly this month, allowing me to more precisely predict that market than I've been able to do for a few years. NEoWave FORECASTING https://www.neowave.com/market-forecasting.asp Sincerely, Glenn Neely

NEW LOW, as Stocks fall too OIH : $14.73 - $0.47, - 3.09% Oilb : $25.33 + $0.18. +0.72% Spy : 252.05 - $3.03. - 1.19% Still laser-beam-like... All time low (late 2001) was near these levels: $14.27 was the adj. close on 9/26/2001 (in edit, CLOSING levels): OIH : $14.76 -$0.44, -2.89% : why? given the following... WTI: $48.17 +$1.57, +3.35% USO: $10.02 +$0.23, +2.35% brnt: $57.24 +$1.16, +2.07% oilb : $25.33 +$0.18, +0.72%

THREE in One chart ... update : UPDATED to 1/4/19

SLB - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last: $37.90 +$0.06 HAL - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last: $29.09 +$0.11 SLB - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last: dd

The OIH to OILB ratio OIH vs OILB (Brent etf) ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yr-W : 3yr - 10d / Last: $15.20 / $25.15 = R-60.4% : 5yr-W : from 12/2013 > : YrEnd: - Ratio : -- OIH - : -- OILB- : -- XLE- : 2013 : 67.83%: $48.07 : $70.87 : $88.51 : 2014 : 101.8%: $35.92 : $35.28 : $79.16 : 2015 : 138.8%: $26.45 : $19.05 : $60.32 : 2016 : 134.3%: $33.35 : $24.83 : $75.32 : 2017 : 93.04%: $26.05 : $28.00 : $72.26 : 2018 : 12/18 60.44%: $15.20 : $25.15 : $59.52 :

Colliers 3RD Q Report was issued 2-3 weeks ago Yr.- Qtr : CondoPsm +Chg: Rent, +Chg: Yield : Index, +Chg.%: 2017.Q4 : 174,706, +4.6% : 800, - 0.0% : 5.49% : 113.1, +0.9% : >Q1, Old : 180,400, +3.3% : 805, +0.6% : 5.35% : 115.5, +2.1% : 2018.Q1 : 185,825, +6.4% : 805, +0.6% : 5.20% : 115.5, +2.1% : 2018.Q2 : 195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 116.8, +1.1% :: 2018.Q3 : 195,950, +5.4% : 810, +0.6% : 4.96% : 11?.? , +?.?% : (updating) RENT 4Q /2017 : 174.7k : 5.50%: 0,800 : - 1.11 %: - 4.42% / 0,530 - 1,070 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 :1Q /2018 : 185.8k : 5.35% 0,805: +0.63%: - 2.19% / 0,5 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 :2Q /2018 : 195.9k : 5.20% 0,810: +0. ??%: - 0. ??% / 0,5 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 : ?1Q /2018 : 203.3k : 4.83% 0,819: +0. ??%: - 0. ??% / 0,5 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,6 ?? - 1,??0 / 0,7 ?? - 1,??0 : ? Qtr /Year : Mak-Mid.Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo- Makati-H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /Makati Yield 3br? : 1Q/ 2018 : 0,805 x12 = 9,660 / 180.400: 5.35% Yield (prev. 5.50%)Note: Compare with the Yield on a Office: Premier : ??? (9.14%) : Grade-A : ??? (10.03%) adj.1Q /2018 : 185,800e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 111,700- 260.0k* : 114,000 - 244,400 : 200,400 - 247,300 : *286.4k x90% adj.2Q /2018 : 195,950e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 121,000- 270.9k* : 118,000 - 252,000 : 199,000 - 246,000 : *301.0k x90% adj.3Q /2018 : 203,350e +?. ??% : + ??. ? % : 125,000- 281.7k* : 124,000 - 264,000 : 208,000 - 250,000 : *313.0k x90% adj.Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H / / > source: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/colliers-manila-residential-3q18.pdf?la=en-GB

AVIDA SOUTHPOINT - is the official name for what some called "wyeth" Price is said to be P200k+ per sqm - I am checking this

Rob McEwen On Why The Next Gold Bull Market Is Already Underway Gold's bull market may go for 7-9 more years Published on 21 Nov 2018 There are few in the gold market who have seen and experienced more than Rob McEwen of McEwan Mining. Which is why we were fortunate to have him join Chris Marcus on Inside the Markets to explain what most in the investment community have yet to discover.