Wanderer

Great. Might not need that GM account now - can switch between metals at BV. I'll go take a looksie....

I looked at the Gold price this a.m. and thought 'good heavens!'. In recent weeks it has felt to me as if Gold fell early in the day when Tokyo etc. were trading and then recovered its losses and added new gains when NY was up and about. If that is the case today, we'll get real fireworks! If it is reversed, then we might see an almighty smackdown later in the day. I really and truly can't decide which is more likely. Am I the only investor continually plagued by massive uncertainty?

Hi all, I don't know how widely this was picked up, but since I'm in the region I thought I'd share it: Mauritius purchased 2 tons of IMF gold this week. OK, 2 tons isn't a lot, but then Mauritius isn't very big: only 1.25million people with an GDP per capita of around $7000. The equivalent in population terms would be the UK buying 100 tons of gold. In terms of economic weight, it is as if the UK had purchased 700 tons of gold - so, pro-rata, a big investment. This had been discussed a couple of years ago but they didn't buy. Why buy now at twice the price? Interestingly, Mauritius has a pretty good history of getting things right and is closely allied economically to India. Draw your own conclusions I suppose. Wanderer

Just a thought, but does the continued absence of recent silver sammy sightings mean that a top has been reached for Silver for the time being?

Hmmm, Mar 10 isn't that far out for such a slow moving asset class. Interesting. Does that reflect the fact that this isn't a terribly well evolved sector of financial derivatives or simply that no-one dare offer something further out than that. Why can't you just buy a 'spot' house price derivative?

Hi all, Is there an accessible way for little investors (a.k.a me) to profit from property price declines i.e. to hedge against a fall in house prices if we buy a house? Are you able to buy tradeable futures or CFDs tied to e.g. the Halifax or Nationwide House Price indexes? Or can only the big boys do this? Wanderer

Hi, Woke up this morning and decided to hedge all my silver through CFDs. Glad I did so far.... I fear this could be a big smackdown (prior to further rises of course). Wanderer

Hey Laura B, I'm not in the fight above, but I do sense that timing is more important with Silver than Gold as it does lurch about more and, by my own confession, has had me shake out of the market at the wrong times and panic in at the wrong times too. Definitely one to drip into on the pullbacks over an extended period. BTW, also one to put into PHAG or similar rather than real physical unless you REALLY intend to hold for the long-term, simply because of the 15% VAT. That said, I've just taken some delivery of physical which will go in a safety deposit box on the other side of the country for just in case TSHTF.

Thanks Ziknik. Allow me to try to explain. I think this site comprises a fantastic and constructive range of people with a range of background and wealths. Dr B, for instance, clearly owns several HK properties outright and a good stash in the bank. Others are hard-up. The wealthier person's motives might be wealth maximisation. The less fortunate are simply seeking to avoid being toasted by the financial crisis. Most are in-between. Some of those saying 'protect yourself, buy physical', might be very wealthy and/or assume others are too. Or they might be harder up and making the same assumption about others. This affects how we should interpret their advice. For example, if someone has only a little wealth, they might want a greater percentage of it in bullion for wealth preservation etc. Hence the fear of nickels/steamrollers. Others who are wealthier and better equipped to shunt money around swiftly might have only a smaller proportion in metals - but still a vastly greater quantity than those who have a larger percentage of their (smaller) wealth in bullion. This also affects attitude to debt/houses. If you can buy a house outright, you might not maximise your wealth by doing it now, but you may not be at too much risk if you can do this and still some some 'stash' left over. And so you might be open to the idea. If you are harder up, or even perhaps much wealthier and can afford several houses, you might think right now is the stupidest time to buy because you either can't afford to make a mistake when borrowing money to buy a house or because (in the latter case), you have one already and simply don't see the rush to buy your 3rd, 4th, 5th house if that was your intention. Been revising for an exam today, so brain is addled. Does that make sense?

Thanks all, Alas Dr B., I'm not winding you up. I know that a slide is very probable, which is why I'm railing against buying - especially after the considerable bounce UK housing has had following the start of the slide. I know it isn't economically 'rational'. But things are complicated because (a) there are specific reasons for wanting to settle e.g. ill relatives we need to look after ( we've three children and you would not believe how difficult it is to get kids into a reasonable state school in the SE of England - but we've done this (hurray!) © UK tenancy arrangements are horrendously short term (1 year only) which isn't really compatible with stability for the kids - especially when we spend half our live overseas and (d) there is nothing, nothing on for rent in our village. Finally, we don't really want to be rich, but we want to have 'enough': 'Better a little with the fear of the LORD than great wealth with turmoil' (Ps.37:16) and 'Be content with what you have' (Heb 13:5). I know this might sound odd to some, and it certainly isn't meant as preaching. But, if we buy, we will be lucky to have a decent house we can call our own, not owing money to anyone if we choose that. Much of which is due to advice gleaned on this site (so thanks!). And that will put us in a very privileged minority. Sideshow, sounds like we are in virtually identical situations. We're looking Kent, in the villages outside Paddock Wood/Tonbridge/Maidstone. We too may do the hold some back, slap it in gold (actually keep some of the gold we have) options. I'd like to keep some of my S&P shorts running too. But then see para above..., maybe we'll just keep it simple.

It happens we might buy a house soon for a number of personal reasons. Running through the sums though, I can see that once back in the UK we could happily spend my salary on normal living even before we paid any sort of mortgage - I don't mean extravagant living, but just 'living' - food, heat, light, council tax, clothes, sink fund for house repairs, car depreciation. I increasingly don't understand how most people get buy in the UK unless they put no money aside for repairs etc; or live on credit. Either way, I sense something will go 'bump' for the vast majority of people. I also believe this sixth quarter of recession will strike home as a concept and puncture some of the recent ebullience. (I hope so - I'm short most indices!). I'm considering, if we do decide to buy, whether to load up with a sizeable mortgage (2.5 - 3 times my sole income) on the basis this would give us funds to invest e.g. keep some of my gold intact, or just go 'all-in' and not take on debt. I realise that buying a house isn't a wealth-maximising solution. But we've previously made good money on houses and so in some ways don't mind if we have to lose on a house if it gives us security of tenure (we're global gypsies and my employer can move us at a stroke when we are overseas, so this is important to our family when we are back in the UK). Any views on this? (not on the buy/don't buy question, I know most people's views on that here). On a related point, so I get a feel for where you all come from, what percentage/multiple of salary saved up and invested in things tangible (not houses) would people feel they'd need to feel comfortably 'protected' against inflation? I suspect some people's gold stashes on here are several x income, but others are just a few % - and this affects how to interpret what people are saying on the forum.

It happens we might buy a house soon for a number of personal reasons. Running through the sums though, I can see that once back in the UK we could happily spend my salary on normal living even before we paid any sort of mortgage - I don't mean extravagant living, but just 'living' - food, heat, light, council tax, clothes, sink fund for house repairs, car depreciation. I increasingly don't understand how most people get buy in the UK unless they put no money aside for repairs etc; or live on credit. Either way, I sense something will go 'bump' for the vast majority of people. I also believe this sixth quarter of recession will strike home as a concept and puncture some of the recent ebullience. (I hope so - I'm short most indices!). I'm considering, if we do decide to buy, whether to load up with a sizeable mortgage (2.5 - 3 times my sole income) on the basis this would give us funds to invest e.g. keep some of my gold intact, or just go 'all-in' and not take on debt. I realise that buying a house isn't a wealth-maximising solution. But we've previously made good money on houses and so in some ways don't mind if we have to lose on a house if it gives us security of tenure (we're global gypsies and my employer can move us at a stroke when we are overseas, so this is important to our family when we are back in the UK). Any views on this? (not on the buy/don't buy question, I know most people's views on that here). On a related point, so I get a feel for where you all come from, what percentage/multiple of salary saved up and invested in things tangible (not houses) would people feel they'd need to feel comfortably 'protected' against inflation? I suspect some people's gold stashes on here are several x income, but others are just a few % - and this affects how to interpret what people are saying on the forum.

Hello, I'm posting to reclaim the forum! Have just been doing a wee tote-up of my net worth and is now at a record once again, despite losing nearly a big amount on shorts of the various stock indices. Much of this increase now thanks to Gold, Silver and related stocks including a few beauts - e.g. SLW. Question now is how and whether to rebalance my portfolio slightly. Currently (in % terms): Cash (mostly sterling (yes, I know)) 22 (85% sterling, 15% euros) Gold and Gold shares 47 (say 38% bullion, 9% stocks) Oil 0 (closed a position over the summer) Silver and Silver Shares 14 (half silver bullion, half stocks) UK and Japan Equities 5 Short Equities 10 (in ETFs - losses here) CFD account 3 (losses here) (although I've closed some sterling shorts in profit, partly to preserve margins) How would people balance/rebalance this? I sense we've had a good run in many ways and that there may be a change of direction soon (though I'd be considerably wealthier if I hadn't been betting on that basis against shares for some time!). I know Laura B would hit me with her rolling pin so that I'd get out of sterling. But my entire reference - salary, ultimate housing destination etc. - is in sterling so i've struggled with inertia on this one. Also posted on Dr B's trading diary. Grateful for views, Wanderer

FWIW I find all the photographs on this thread tedious and lower the level of debate. Just my view. I hope we don't get lots of personal arguments between posters contaminating what is otherwise a great forum. I'm back in the UK soon and will inspect my sovs from CID. Has anyone here ever got a dud one (fake) from CID? I did contemplate getting a FIsch coin checker but they are out of stok at moment it would appear. Any clues on how else to check a sov? Or are CID so reliable I don't need to worry?

The Government has been quietly trying to change the terms by which they can make Civil Servants compulsorily redundant. This is widely seen as the precursor to widespread retrenchments and is already causing mayhem with the Unions. This will become a big issue nearer Christmas. Its going to be a choppy ride for any Govt. that wins the next elections. The figures for my own Dept make you pause and scratch your head.

This should help place a few houses priced at £1.1m below the £1m mark. I'm sure we'll see more of this sort of idea. What the Libdems think today is often what the other two parties think tomorrow. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8265821.stm

Ok, who sold the gold?

Up to a point, Goldfinger. But if the price of Gold were (theoretically) to moon-shoot, the cost of those inputs would (whilst increasing) fall considerably relative to the value of the Gold produced. My point is that only certain countries would have the ability to produce gold. Some will be able to produce a lot. Many will have no gold resources in the ground. This assymetry would create a new politics.

OK, sovereigns done. Good. I'm looking for plastic storage tubes (not capsules) available in UK online. Anyone know where I can get them? [sovs from CID. Cheapest physical I could find. I've now stop-lossed an equivalent sum of paper gold so should now have additional upward exposure without concomitant downward exposure]

Another point about a 'Gold world order' as you folk are discussing is the politics: surely the countries sitting on exploitable gold reserves have a new license to print money in the global reserve currency. Which countries would that be? China, Oz, S. Africa? Others? (Wales!!! - we'll beat the English!).

Okey-dokey, I've done my research and are going with CID as they seem much the cheapest. I've seen people on here approve of them. Correct? Interestingly, CID Sovereigns are cheaper per unit gold weight than Britannias which is unusual and attractive given their divisibility and CGT free-ness. How do sovereigns (Elizabeths) generally come packaged? Can you source capsules anywhere?

I'm actually swapping some paper gold for physical (my first). Views: small bars (20g, 50g) or coins? If coins: sovereigns or krugers? (UK Citizen, pay CGT)

Hi, where IS a tax-free place to buy silver? South Africa? [i'm going to SA soon....]

Now don't get me wrong, I've nothing against physical, but if we are seeking a comparison of risks I'd say the risk of ** A 40% fall in global equity prices in the next quarter; is much greater than the risk of **Gold ETFs and Mint Certificates being rendered worthless. That might happen some day, but I suspect it is a fair old while away yet...

Swan dive? No comprende!