Concrete Jungle
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Posts posted by Concrete Jungle
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Gold discussion over on HPC
Gold Bashers On Hpc., Why so negative here on HPC?
Not moved instantly from the main forum by the mods, is this a bullish signal for pm?
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So I can sleep easy knowing I have far more than 0.15 oz physical!
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Hasn't that guy left the HPC team after being threatened (allegedly) by another member?
I think other financial advisors threatened to "report him" to the FSA for his postings and position as HPC spokesman. There was a long thread on HPC a while back but I didn't bother reading past the first few posts on it.
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One factor that I have not seen discussed in relation to UK house prices is as follows. Come 2010 after a general election, I expect whoever is in power to increase taxation to meet the repayment of government borrowing. Will an increase in direct and indirect taxation on those still in employment have any meaningful result on sentiment and result in people feeling they have less net pay and less disposable income? Therefore prolonging the time period and percentage falls from peak slightly?
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There was an article in one of the construction publications last year that rubbished the claims of building an extra 50,000 affordable homes. I think it was Peter Rogers who was squirming like a worm on the hook if memory serves me right. I will dig it out later on today and check.
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You can forget UK houseprices in ounces of gold. I am beginning to think about UK houseprices in ounces of silver.
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I think the latest Nationwide figures are released tomorrow.
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It's not exactly for that reason that I've posted my last time on there and signed up here yesterday, but it's shallow enough to suffice for now.
Going on from Goldfinger's point; I emailed Fionaulla a few months ago and suggested that she either knew at the time that the prediction she gave previously was incorrect (using the simple straight ruler method of forecasting) and was therefore a knave OR she wasn't very good at her job. No reply of course, but I felt better for it nonetheless.
First post. Treat me gently chaps. Is there an initiation ceremony I have to go through or what? I have a note from Mummy Paddles about allergies and a weak chest, if so...
Another HPCer converts to the dark side. Good luck with the travelling and blog.
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Expectation of 25% drops hits the mainstream
The chief executive of the Nationwide Building Society has told BBC News that he thinks house prices could fall as much as 25% from their peak.This prediction implies that 2.5 million homeowners could be pushed into negative equity.
Graham Beale also said he does not expect to see signs of recovery in the housing market until 2010.
Nationwide is by far the UK's biggest building society and is closer to the housing market than many others.
Over the course of the business cycle it provides slightly fewer than one in ten of all the mortgages in the UK - though its recent share of new home loans has been a bit less.
So Nationwide's chief executive, Graham Beale, carries weight when prognosticating.
What he said in an exclusive BBC interview on Monday is that he does not expect the housing market to show signs of recovery till 2010.
"I think we are into 2010 [before we see signs of recovery]," Mr Beale said.
"I think that next year we will see a similar pattern to this year...we will see further falls in house prices. And I think before we really get to the new world, whatever that is, I think we will be into 2010."
Negative equity
He also forecasts the peak-to-trough fall in prices will reach 25%..
That is a very significant drop.
It would mean that a typical house would have decreased in value by a quarter during the two-and-a-bit years from last autumn, when prices peaked, to some time in the next decade.
If Mr Beale is right, some 2.5 million homeowners would suffer from negative equity, according to research by Michael Saunders of Citigroup.
That would mean 22% of all householders with mortgages would have home loans greater than the value of their respective homes.
Beale believes that there is little the government - or anyone else - can do to stem in any significant way what he believes is a necessary adjustment of prices.
Confidence boost
He says that the US Treasury's colossal scheme to shore up the two great providers of housing finance, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, should help to restore confidence in financial markets.
But, he adds, it won't swiftly revitalise the UK housing market - even though Britain's prospects are inextricably linked to prospects for the US residential property market, because of its importance for the funding of the global financial system.
That said, the UK government is under pressure from banks and building societies to help them raise money so that they can lend a little more to us in the form of mortgages.
Treasury battle
The two options being considered at the Treasury are to provide a taxpayer guarantee for mortgages packaged up as bonds for sale to investors, or to extend an existing Bank of England liquidity scheme so that it could help banks to refinance new mortgages.
Both options would be designed to increase the confidence of global investors that money they provide to banks for lending in the form of mortgages would be safe.
And both options are loathed by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, because he believes they could distort the housing market.
This creates the tantalising prospect of a serious showdown between the Bank of England on the one hand and the Treasury and 10 Downing Street on the other over the best way to revive our housing market, our banking system and our economy.
And it is one which needs to be resolved by 1 October, when the existing Bank of England liquidity scheme runs out.
25% off is only half of the story in my opinion. Slowly the "experts" who are quoted chapter and verse in the media are facing reality.
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Rude awakening from the Scottish delusion:
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/First-...ince.4451340.jp
So, Hadrian's Wall hasn't stopped it. Who would have thought it??
Expect 50% drops. Edinburgh has a lot of oversupply.
Sure.
:lol:It is not 10 minutes since the SNP crowed from the rooftops for extra funding and the return of free and easy lending North of the borer. Because Scotland was immune to falling house prices
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UK house prices in August were 10.9% lower than the same month a year ago, according to the Halifax.
The lender said that property prices dropped 1.8% in August compared with July, leaving the cost of an average home in the UK at £174,178.
It said market conditions would remain "challenging" in the months ahead, despite government help for buyers.
House prices dropped across the UK, but some surveys have shown the Scottish market to be the most resilient.
The figures show that the average price of a home in the UK was at the same level in August 2008 as it was in February 2006.
Interest rates
The figures were released just a few hours before the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee was set to announce its latest decision on interest rates.
They also came two days after the government announced measures aimed at supporting homeowners and buyers, such as raising the threshold at which stamp duty is paid from £125,000 to £175,000.
"This week's announcement on stamp duty is a welcome development and will benefit a significant number of homebuyers, particularly outside the South East of England. Market conditions, however, will remain challenging," said Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis.
He said that pressure on householders' income, and the mortgage squeeze, were still driving prices and housing market activity down.
The falls officially reach 10.9% by August. A significant break into double digit figures, for consumption by the masses on the news later on no doubt. Yet still I am seeing sellers desperately cling onto valuations made in 2007!! When will reality sink in for these people?
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She said that prices, that were still higher than five years ago,
Well such a well thought out argument has reassured me
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The pathetic attempts to put a positive spin on the figures sums up this joke of a government perfectly. I wonder what the bovine excrement being fed to the masses in 12 months will be?
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It has gone eerily quiet on the government house price saving masterplan. I wonder what the fools may be scheming over next?
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Why is there a constant stream of people demanding the government "do something"? Just what are the government supposed to do?
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
IMF confirms plans to sell 403 tonnes of gold.
IMF confirms plan to sell 403 tonnes gold
Any of the more learnered posters care to comment on the significance of this proposed gold sale? Will this be the start of a further sell of of UK gold by Gordon Brown?