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About Dispassion

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  1. I've only been back here a few days after a very long break and my feeling is that the board's got progressively more childish. I'd like to see many less posts with no real content. The poster may think that a one line gag with a smiley face on the end, is a minor issue, but it encourages others to do the same and makes it difficult to pick out the actual content from any particular thread. I'd also like to see people presenting an opinion, that they'd prefer to be cross-examined and a lot less of posters trying market a dogmatic opinion. There's a big difference between a discussion that everyone can learn from (even if people strongly disagree with each other's opinions) and the sort of posts that drag the forum down. The posts that I'm talking about are those that: ... disagree without presenting a counter-argument ... make no effort to understand someone else's point of view ... attempt to mock someone for their point of view ... recite the same mantras ... are large cut and pastes ... are frequent cut and pastes from the same sources ... are nothing more than running arguments carried over from previous threads ... are in-jokes trying to exclude or make another poster feel excluded etc. I understand that it's easy to sit there and keep refreshing the page looking for something to respond to, but I'd prefer that people, posted less frequently, but had spent some time thinking about and researching their responses. I don't expect every post to look like a well written essay, but I'd prefer that they were much more like that than playground insults. I don't think we should discourage people from posting from a wide range of different backgrounds, ages, levels of education and even mental states, but I think we can expect that they want to take part in a constructive discussion. As a general rule, if we've taken a dislike to any particular poster and they've made a post that annoys us we should try to ignore it. Trying to have the last word in an childish argument, just makes us look like the stroppiest child.
  2. Mike Shedlock has posted some futures data for US House Prices, predicting a trough in Q4 2010, wiping 8 years off house price rises, with a 36% fall from the peak. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...9-analysis.html
  3. Dispassion


    interesting article, in which John Dizard argues that gold is going below $800 over the next few months: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b8d36560-21b1-11...144feabdc0.html
  4. I was referring to a reference on fib ratios in markets before 1900's. The link you give says that Gartly was pretty much at exaclty the same time to Gann and Elliot: I don't doubt the occurance of Fib ratios in modern liquid markets. Only the application of them to less sophisticated markets where they don't have widepread intentional use by the market participants, such as the housing market.
  5. I'm in interested in any reference material you have on this.
  6. Yeah, I see your point, it's a bit of a chicken and the egg situation. Perhaps, some of it's psychological, but the rest is self-fulfilling prophecy. Whether the early momentum came from ill-founded notions or not, they work because other people use them. I use TA for liquid markets, but my opinion is that only the most naive TA is relevant to the housing market.
  7. Gann published in 1935 and was active in market trading circles in 1909. Elliot published in 1938, his theory uses fibonacci ratios.
  8. I see a big difference in the strategies used by stock investors and property investors. A large percentage of money on stocks is invested by people who use fib retracement, but virtually no money from property investors uses it. It works as a self-fulfulling prophecy, but only if the message is widespread enough. The only fib level that I can see having any significant impact in the housing market is 50%. I'll look into the history of fib ratios, because I can't see that they'd have an impact before they were widely used.
  9. For me, fibonacci retracement only works if enough people use it, which is why we see them in liquid markets which are dominated by sophisticated traders. Do you mean that there's something inherently psychological about these retracement levels?
  10. I don't see the housing market as that technical. The vast majority of homeowners have never even heard of fibonacci retracement. It's all about sentiment and mortgage availability. I think we'll be comfortable that we've seen the bottom in stocks and the peak in unemployment before we the housing market has bottomed out.
  11. The derivitives market on UK residential property is predicting: 38% peak to trough in Q4 2010 (spreadfair) 42% peak to trough in Q4 2011 (tradition) Spreadfair closed this market so the data's a few months old. The tradition trough has shallowed from 45% a month earlier. It's coarse data, but the liquid market doesn't see this as the bottom. It's a market that could be skewed by hedging against over exposure to property and we've no reason to believe that it's any more efficient than any other market. For me, it's the best predictor we've got and conveniently matches where my rationale would seem to lead me. I expect to see relatively flat house prices for about year at the trough, so I see no reason to rush in. Is the conference call recording available?
  12. Dispassion


    Oil is plummeting fast, it remains well correlated Euro/Dollar, commodities and gold. I'm increasingly certain, that it's the Oil Producer's Cartel that hold the key to direction of gold. A bottom in oil is a critical point for all markets in my opinion. These collapsing commodity and stock prices indicate a serious lack of faith in reflation, if the banks don't reflate company prices soon then I think we're going to see some serious public sector action in Europe, including nationalisation, but I don't see this happening in the US.
  13. I couldn't find it in the doc either.
  14. I guess they don't have the gold cartel to deal with On a serious note, other sites built on IP board, have a report button which allows any user to report a post, I guess an admin can enable this. I'm unsure if you're able to quaratine the post until ok'ed by an admin or if an admin has to take action to have it removed. See: http://www.invisionpower.com/files/ipb23docs.pdf Page 19 It also has info on ban word and ban IP, though dynamic IP will means this isn't 100% effective. There is a mod to 2.x.x which centralises reported posts, which is also available in IP board 3. http://forums.invisionpower.com/index.php?...02&t=276401 If it's bots that are posting entering a string from an image upon registration filters this, which is enabled. I think this was broken on IP board for a while, so perhaps there are lurking bots. If this is what you're seeing one option would be to review the accounts which haven't yet posted. You can also prevent new users from posting and/or creating new threads until they meet certain critera on some boards, perhaps IP board supports this too.
  15. Dispassion


    The correlation between the gold/dollar with euro/dollar and oil/dollar have been resumed over the last 2 weeks. I'm not sure that we'll see a turn around in gold until we see a turn around in oil.