Dispassion

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This reflects the movement in the Euro/Dollar index. If the pog moves back to where it was when the Euro/Dollar last traded as this price then we'll see it knocking $890. More importantly this movement adds weight to the theory that the Dollar has peaked against the Euro.

Looking at yesterday's data, the sell off in gold correlates with a broad sell of in commodties. But most importantly, it is highly correlated with the the Euro/Dollar, indicating that it is still, to some extent coupled, although since mid September the coupling has weakened significantly.

Dan Norcini on the panic to buy gold and sell 'gold' http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...ld1230pmCDT.pdf

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=ema...id=aQFP3_y4srbU Gold Futures Drop on Bets Global Slump to Cut Commodity Demand By Pham-Duy Nguyen Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for the first time this week on speculation that a global economic slump will reduce demand for commodities. Silver gained. Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for gold prices by 5 percent, estimating that the metal will average $900 an ounce this year and $950 in 2009. Before today, gold gained 8.8 percent this week as investors sought a haven from plummeting equities. ``A lot of the speculative money is off to the sidelines,'' said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. ``Gold is a victim of deleveraging. Eventually, it will do better than other commodities because it will hold its value.'' Gold futures for December delivery fell $20, or 2.2 percent, to $886.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price rose to a record $1,033.90 on March 17. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials has dropped 34 percent from a record in July as energy, agricultural and industrial-metal prices slid. The gauge was little changed today. Gold's decline may be a sign of some stability in financial markets after the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and four other central banks yesterday reduced borrowing costs in a coordinated effort to ease the credit crunch. `Vote of Confidence' ``We think this is a vote of confidence in the global banking, trading, economic system,'' said Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. Gold-lease rates fell for the second straight day, after gaining every day since Sept. 18 as credit conditions tightened. The one-month Libor gold forward offered rate fell to 2.4 percent today, after touching 2.7 percent on Oct. 10, the highest since 2001. Still, gold may rebound on demand for a haven should more banks fail and the credit market remain frozen. Stocks in Europe and the U.S. fell today, and the cost of borrowing in dollars for three months in London rose to the highest level this year. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record 763.9 metric tons yesterday. Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, gained as copper and other base metals rallied. Silver fell 16 percent last week when gold declined 6.2 percent. ``Silver got significantly oversold so you have some value hunters who think silver is comparatively cheap to gold now,'' said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago. Silver futures for December delivery gained 10.3 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $11.875 an ounce. The price has dropped 20 percent this year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/goldMktRpt/...lBrandChannel=0

There's only one explanation, a lot of gold has just been sold, paper or physical. It's either been traded down on technical or fundamental reasons or a single or group of sellers sold a lot of gold quickly, or a combination of the two. I've been trying to work out who's selling gold for a while, because by all reports, it's very difficult to buy physical gold at the moment. It's hard to find any information other than speculation, though.

I was just wondering about this exact thing. Does anyone know where to get data on what the ratio is of paper gold to physical gold on the market.

Looks like we're about to tear through the resistance at 920.6 There's got to be big news behind this.

Anyone watching the action in the gold price? A nice parabola has formed.

The wedge begining on Monday expires very shortly, I'd say 75% bullish.

There are two well formed rising support lines from 750 and 825 and the news is bullish. It's hard to argue a case against this at the moment. I echo Goldfinger and Narcos comments.

We're at the top of your 'channel 2' now Ker, your model's worked very well so far are you expecting that this resistance will be strong?

Looks like Ker channel 2 will hold and mini channel 7 has been broken.

This would be contrary to the recent statement from China, asking Asia not to sell the dollar.

To me, it looks like the "Ker model" is still not conclusive.

Now testing the resistance of mini channel 7`.

Now testing the resistance of mini channel 10.

This still confuses me. I don't understand who is borrowing gold or who is selling it at the moment it certainly doesn't seem to be the private investor.

The neutral energy to product ratio for miners is one that rises with rising product price. The sell off in the HUI has actually coincided with a fall in the oil to gold ratio, so I don't consider energy costs to have been a significant factor here. see: http://stockcharts.com $WTIC:$GOLD and $HUI:$GOLD

Really don't worry about banging on about it, I for one, would like to see more balance on this forum. I'd hate it to be a cheerleading forum. For me, the primary reason behind the underperformance of gold stocks, has got to be based upon predictions on the longevity of the gold bull. Juniors are underperforming majors which are underperfoming the metal. This would indicate investors are expecting the bull to be short from here. If the outlook changes and the gold bull is confirmed to be strong then I expect to see some very big moves in gold stocks. If anyone has any insight into this then I'm keen to read it too.

Your last two calls have been excellent, Ker, I hope you traded them.

http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/

I've been trying to work out who's selling gold at the moment too, but I've not found anything yet, so if anyone finds anything please post up.

Dan Norcini on paper gold sales, shortage of physical and how much attention to pay to TA. http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...ld1230pmCDT.pdf