FWIW

This battle will be a marathon not a sprint.

All serious gold holders should keep the faith. Gold is money and nothing else.

Wow the long time gold bear Ker has now turned bullish, $1200 in 2-3 weeks!!

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=97643

Sh*t - he was my 'contrarian' indicator...

This interview is important - also flashes Gold at over $1000!!! (Also on my "normal" distribution thread)

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUlMkMpsYjI

I am prepaired to be wrong but everything is managed (to the best of their abilities) these days and if you try and think from the point of view of those in charge it seems to be pretty much what happens.

 

See my post on the other dark side yesterday Link

 

By thinking as if I were someone who wanted to protect the markets/system it is remarkably easy to call the intervention. This is not based on chartism/support levels, just my view of the charts at the time and when they seem to be getting out of control.

I thought I was the only one who thought this. I was starting to doubt my own sanity. Was I seeing conspiracy everywhere? I feel better that we may be 'mad' together!

You have hit the nail on the head there(the bit in bold). The way I am looking at this system management is:

If I had sole, personal access to the new fiat money, what would I do for maximum profit? Would I be a good citizen and start distributing the money? No way, you would wait. And wait some more. Eventually you would need to start buying up assets for pennies on the pound. You would do it very carefully and slowly. No need to rush, the world is your oyster.

The flaw in this plan is that the longer this 'managed deflation' continues, the actual foundations of what money is start to creak. Gold starts to rise as it is 'God's Currency' and always a store of wealth. They tried the ETF route, but I think they have failed. They may try again later, and I fully expect them to but us Ciga's are rightfully obsessive over our family's well being. Bring on the sales I say.

Now the problem the 'system manager' has are these pesky derivatives or financial WMD. They are blowing up all over the place. Nobody really knows how much they have. They also seem to go off in a cascade, which just makes the problem worse.

The only thing I see these 'system managers' being able to do is to use this new money to go into the Stock Market. I fully expect some share prices to mysteriously start to rise. Fundamentals and failure of doomster's will be the reasons given on Bloomberg. This will be bad for gold, as every new gold etf 'speculator' will be rushing for the exits.

Again, we Ciga's can 'play' in this sandbox too. Rather than purchase new gold as soon as the price dips, I will buy certain financial shares. As soon as the gold price drops to a level where the 'system managers' feel that their work is done. They will stop pumping their new fiat into the stock market. I expect the DJIA to be at around 5000 (or lower) at this point. It is at this stage where I will move from shares back into new gold.

Here is a chart of where we have been:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/bi...1&rand=3892

Your thoughts on this will be appreciated.

Don't trade gold and don't sell your insurance. I am pro gold long term and I am also bullish on stocks when they are at a bottom - I would rather buy an asset at the very bottom than buy into a market that has already risen by a large amount.

 

What you fail to get is that stocks and gold can often move in the opposite direction in the absence of high inflation or safe haven buying which is where we will soon be. Once stocks bottom and are very undervalued with low p/e ratios and high yields then they will become much more attractive than gold - this is what happened at the end of 1974 when the Dow had crashed by 45%. Gold began an 18-month bear market at the end of December 1974 until August 1976 3 weeks after stocks made their final low in early December 1974.

 

Have a look at current yields on the FTSE 100 for today:

 

Old Mutual 14.5%

BT 17.5%

Barclays 36.4%

Aviva 10.8%

 

Stupid people are panic selling these shares and fleeing into cash for 1% - most of these stocks will easily double in the next 12/18 months and also pay you a nice big dividend. Once the panic goes and stocks simply cannot go any lower then the money will go into stocks and not gold - it will come out of cash, treasuries and gold where it's been seeking safety. Watch the VIX - I think once it gets under 30 then a wall of money will come from these safe havens and back into stocks.

Well that is where we disconnect then. You believe things will go back to 'normal' and I believe things will go back to 'normal'. Your timeframe for normal is >1971 and mine is <1971.

Who is right? Who is wrong? Only time will tell.

That's another warning indicator of a coming top - too mainstream now, the general public are well informed of golds rise and are buying this peak.

With the greatest respect, I would say that you just don't get it...

I refer you to Nixon 1971: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock

It has taken 38 years to get this far. Charts are great at telling you where you have been, not where you are going.

The thing about money is that it has infinite demand from people - who doesn't want to be rich? The FED and the BoE thought that they could control the supply side. Not too much printing to give the illusion of the fiat holding some value. With the trillions in bank bailouts this illusion has been shattered. Now we are on our way to Harare...

By buying and holding gold, you can hedge against two possible outcomes.

1) Gold becomes money (due to hyperinflation e.g. Zimbabwe) via restatment of Bretton Woods or Bancor system - gold holders win.

2) Fiat lives and does not fully die - this will lead to either inflation or deflation - either way gold holders win.

So there you have it - trading gold is like Goldfinger already said "for people that like steamrollers" or "catching falling knives".

Where are the people who predicted $300 and $200?

 

Are they checking back with their bosses on what to post next?

And don't forget 6.60 for Silver!!!

:P :P :P

had a little slap just then....

come on me precious!

Doubt it. If they could've smacked it, they would have done so long before we got so close to a grand, methinks. Having said that, there could be a few sell stops out there given the psychological figure and after what happened last March.

Never underestimate the enemy.

They will be scheming and plotting against our precious.

This is it...£691.11...is this a new high in turdling?

from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/20...5/a-gold-watch/

A gold watch

Posted by Paul Murphy on Feb 20 12:45.

We’ve got this new widget that allows us to embed charts that update dynamically. And what better excuse to try it out than the prospect on Friday that the price of gold might tick back up through $1000?

Gold did in fact hit £1,002 in March last year, before retracing its steps to $710, but the latest conglomeration of bad news has encouraged fans of the yellow metal to make all sorts of predicts on the upside…

Prices from Reuters, via Wall Street On Demand, typically delayed by 15 mins.

This entry was posted by Paul Murphy on Friday, February 20th, 2009 at 12:45 and is filed under Commodities. Tagged with gold.

People still haven't understood. Price is irrelevant.

 

If you can buy physical, buy it. Keep it in your own hands. Do not sell or trade it. Ignore the day to day, week to week, even month to month price movements.

Well said Errol.

People need to understand the situation we are in. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1235045152...tml?mod=testMod

The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new bear-market closing low, as the financial sector continued to decline and investors found little impetus to buy in a flurry of economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 89.68 points, or 1.2%, to close at 7465.95. The blue-chip benchmark had flirted all week with its five-and-half-year closing low of 7552.29, set on Nov. 20. Thursday, the Dow briefly dipped under its five-and-a-half-year intraday low of 7449.38 of Nov. 21.

I wonder when the first £100 note comes out?....... obviously a proud moment for Robert Mugabe to have the UK following his example.

[sarcasm ON]

No, No, No - it's different for the UK and you can't compare with Zimbabwe. Our central bankers know what they are doing. You do know Zimbabwe is led by a dictator? Their central bankers are piss poor morally and have no idea what they are doing. We do know what we are doing...that is the key difference.

[sarcasm OFF]

BOE Unanimously Asks For Authority to Create Money (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

 

 

:lol:

 

GoldUS$ = 984.3

GoldGBP = 690.5

GoldNZ$ = 1922.4

I like the use of that GoldFIAT currency convention!!! I especially like the £690.50 per oz!

Just logged on to have a quick look....

Gold at 978.80

...

....

Oh what a beautiful day! Still won't sell though...Gold is doing exactly what is says on the tin!

Doh - bought some on Monday but the bulk of my funds for silver haven't yet been transferred, anyone see a nice dip in the near future?

Yeah - Ker said it will go to 6.60....any minute now and it will be there?

Ker never did explain his logic to me for that prediction. But I am sure the kitco guys do have a sense of humour though....I and every other silver investor nearly had a heart attack when it dropped to 6.6 for a few seconds!

Kristy is* his employee!!!

 

* was :lol:

Really? Wow - she was always so rude to him....almost like he worked for her!

Does anyone on here still really give a s**t about houseprices and hpc? hpc was a sideshow, the main event is unfolding right now in front of our eyes....

Change....We can hope in....

It just keeps on ticking up....now at 973.20

and Silver at 14.15....

WOW

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/20...lly-out-of.html

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Jim Sinclair: "It is totally out of control"!

I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.

I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.

From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.

The emails of note:

1. Said, "This is it."

2. Said, "It is now."

This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.

For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.

Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.

1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven't you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.

2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.

3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.

4. Own gold.

5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.

6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.

Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed "Out of Control" mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.

The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.

The key event was when Lehman was flushed - all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.

I seek nothing of you but the protection of yourselves.

Respectfully yours,

Jim

YEP

 

plus

 

aint no sustainable earnings coming until this is either written off or inflated away

 

 

 

 

 

not to say there wont be a bear market bouce in stocks though

 

barclays bank bust before the year is out

We have a thread on that if you would like to discuss your thoughts on Barclays?

Just do the exact opposite of what the UK government and the IMF do, and you will be fine.

Doublespeak - Orwell was right. IMF probably don't even have half that amount of gold. I mean why would they need a barberous relic from our past?

Isn't this the greatest time to buy gold in GBP? The sales are here and I am going shopping!

If you squint really hard, then you can see a big smile in this chart.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?...GOLD,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20090211][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Well I can anyway!!! LOL!

$920 taken out. Forward base established. Enemy falling back to higher lines of resistance. Airstrike recommended.....

If airstrike fails, then we should regroup at 865 before we are able to take command post at 1k.

over and out...

They seem to work for some.

But I dont know enough...

I am a big fan of pnf charts. They have saved my asre from making huge losses in the past. (i was in a company share scheme and was loyal to a fault - i learned the hard way never to fall in love with a job or a stock.)

For me they take away all the noise and I can focus on long term trends.

However, I have been looking at other TA currency charts that cgnao does/gives, and I can also see value in those charts especially when comparing one currency with another.

Just been watching Bloomberg.

They just had John Murphy, chief TA, from stockcharts.com on.

When asked what he thought investors should invest in 2009, he said "It's a very easy question - GOLD".

He thinks it will end the year at $1000 eventually. He likes Gold ETF's.

Also discussed that gold acts as hedge against inflation AND deflation (used 1929-1932 as example).

Gold acts a leading indicator for other commodites like oil, etc.

Was just getting to the meat of why he thinks so, when Bloomberg cut to Tim Geitner's replacement at NY FED.

Hmmm, couldn't watch the video before, as was watching TV

 

The video is more interesting. I still have a bit of a problem with the views though, but it depends on whether you view what he is saying as "what the market thinks" or "what he thinks". ie the market might expect gold to go down in deflation, but be wrong

 

Surely if the US$ rises against the rest of the currencies, then GoldUS$ goes down, and GoldEverythingElse goes up, to reflect the change in the currencies. Gold has not changed.

 

 

OOORRRRR, the pound is collapsing

I just like the video because it showed Gold in sterling and in euros. Makes a change from just seeing the POG in USD.

Regarding pound sterling - it is NOT collapsing today is it? now at 1.41x levels... OK - I know I should not just look short term...Rome didn't crumble in a day either!