Bosworth
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Posts posted by Bosworth
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Investigation into Silver market dropped by CFTC.
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6709-13
Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC or Commission) Division of Enforcement has closed the investigation that was publicly confirmed in September 2008 concerning silver markets. The Division of Enforcement is not recommending charges to the Commission in that investigation. For law enforcement and confidentiality reasons, the CFTC only rarely comments publicly on whether it has opened or closed any particular investigation. Nonetheless, given that this particular investigation was confirmed in September 2008, the CFTC deemed it appropriate to inform the public that the investigation is no longer ongoing. Based upon the law and evidence as they exist at this time, there is not a viable basis to bring an enforcement action with respect to any firm or its employees related to our investigation of silver markets.
In September 2008 the CFTC confirmed that its Division of Enforcement was investigating complaints of misconduct in the silver market (see CFTC Release 5562-08, October 2, 2008). At that time the Commission had received complaints regarding silver prices. These complaints were focused on whether the silver futures contracts traded on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) were being manipulated.1 For example, the complaints pointed to differences between prices in the silver futures contracts and prices in other silver products, including retail silver products. The complainants generally asserted that because the prices for retail silver products, such as coins and bullion, had increased, the price of silver futures contracts should have also experienced an increase. By reference to publicly available information concerning large traders with short open positions in the silver futures contracts, the complaints also alleged that the large shorts in the silver market were responsible for lower futures prices. The Division of Enforcement conducted an exhaustive investigation of these and other complaints and focused on identifying and evaluating whether there was any trading activity in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act and
Commission regulations including the anti-manipulation provisions. The Division of Enforcement’s investigation utilized more than seven thousand enforcement staff hours. The staff reviewed and analyzed position and transaction data, including physical, swaps, options, and futures trading data, and other documents and information, and interviewed witnesses. The Division’s investigation included an evaluation of silver market fundamentals and trading within and between cash, futures and over the counter markets. The investigation was also undertaken with assistance by the Commission’s Division of Market Oversight, the Commission’s Office of Chief Economist, and outside experts.
Separately, the Division of Market Oversight continued surveillance of the silver market contemporaneously to the Division of Enforcement’s investigation. The Division of Market Oversight’s market surveillance function encompasses a robust monitoring of traders’ positions and transactions at the ownership and account levels to identify potential violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission regulations including, but not limited to, price manipulation, disruptive trading and trade practice violations. For example, after an episode of sharp price moves in any commodity, staff utilizes numerous visualization and analytical tools on data submitted daily to the Commission to discover indications of potential manipulation and other violations. Where questions remain, Division of Market Oversight staff regularly utilize the Commission authority such as the Special Call under Regulation § 18.05 to obtain additional detailed information from traders.
The Division of Enforcement takes complaints it receives seriously. The Division will not hesitate to use its authority, including new manipulation authority in the Dodd-Frank Act, to bring market manipulation charges as supported by the evidence.
If you have information about a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act or Commission regulations, you may either file a tip or complaint under our whistleblower program, or report such violations or other suspicious activities or transactions to our Division of Enforcement. The CFTC will pay awards to eligible whistleblowers who voluntarily provide us with original information about violations of the Commodity Exchange Act that lead us to bring an enforcement action that results in more than $1 million in monetary sanctions.
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With hindsight it was inevitable. Wish I'd has the balls to trade it.
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Thing is, fixed rates are generally as cheap as variable discounted rates mortgage rates now.
According to
http://www.money.co.uk/mortgages
best 2yr tracker mortgage is 1.94%
best 2yr fixed rate is 1.64%
doesn't make any sense to go with the tracker - none at all.
At my LTV and income multiples and for the size of mortgage the BoE was by far the best deal.
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Just because market rates rise web qe is withdrawn does not automatically mean bank rates will rise. I've elected not to fix my massive mortgage but have linked to BoE base rate which I am gambling will stay low.
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In my very humble opinion, gold will go to <$50 oz before it goes to $5k oz (ie. it won't ever go super-stratospheric). Once people realise paper-gold is effectively worthless nobody will want to hold it. How one calculates the real value of physical without a functioning market is the interesting philosophical question for me (which may become very practical in the future!).
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Convenient. Paper records lost?
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The swings today have been incredible - from hk opening to now...
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CME hiked margins to 18.5% as well. Pretty sure that didn't improve anyone's mood!
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There does appear to be a pattern!
I am however hurting from the recent movements...
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(The latest wheeze being promoted in HK):
35 Minutes to London Euston
Hemel Hampstead Investment Property : link
Fabulous mixed-use development; introducing an enticing collection of apartments, small shops and coffee bars to the heart of Hemel Hempstead.
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Rental investment property
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One bedroom apartments £150,800
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Two Bedroom apartments £240,400
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Near Riverside Canals & Shopping Centre
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London Euston in 35 minutes
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Door to door
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Shuttle service to train station
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Runs during peak commute times
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Excellent Rental Investment
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Properties with two year rental guarantees
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Yields of 5%
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3rd floor apartments all have very large private terraces
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Concierge service
That used to be the old Kodak UK headquarters.
Edit: And it's actually Hemel Hempstead. Nice try to make it sound London-esque!
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Rental investment property
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Yes, that's an interesting shift.
It is usually a good idea to invest somewhere that will benefit from the millions and billions being poured into infrastructure. And there's big spending coming in that part of London.
It can take a while. Canary Wharf is great now but it took over 20 years for it to get that way. That's a long wait and it could easily have gone the other way.
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Many (smart) retiring boomers will leave London.
I have friends who are selling in Chiswick to buy a new house at less than half the price
in Chichester. As more and more do that, the price differentials will narrow, I reckon
Only if you assume no ongoing demand for the family homes they are liberating.
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I've also thrown in the towel. Buying in North London. Hoping to exchange tomorrow. Prices are up ~10-15% since I STRd.
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Sad to say I have rolled over and offered on a house in London (offer accepted) and mortgage going through.
It seems very clear that all efforts will continue to suppress rates and support the indebted. The latest Fed QE makes this quite clear. Almost certainly the UK will follow.
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Here's what has happened thus far:
I don't think my comment was a bad call in hindsight, despite a minor sneer or two like this:
"Is that why the price keeps going up?"
After I said:
"The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA"
What do you say now, Bos?
Do you see how I use these MA's now?
Next key test will be around GLD-$160, and I now detect a slight downwards bias in the 144d MA.
I don't understand what makes you so insecure to have to try and prove yourself right to everyone all the time. You appear to be an intelligent, successful, interesting individual yet you seem to crave recognition and respect not by just putting your cards on the table for discussion but by deliberately and childishly trying to rub other people's choices in their faces.
The price has moved small fractions. Nowhere near enough to recover my trading costs if I tried to sell and buy back physical. And nowhere near enough to consider hedging my current physical exposure.
What is it you are trying to achieve in the way you conduct yourself?
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BTW, if you havent bothered to look, the 144d.MA is just under GLD-$167,
and the top level of today's session (so far) is right on/near it. (GLD-$166.56)
So by mty own measure, I am batting close to 1,000, if that makes the day's high,
and Gold heads down next week.
But i am not ruling out a rally into next week.
No big positions on at the mo'. I am waiting for the market to tell me what to do.
I have a slightly higher expectation of a downwards bias. But no great conviction yet.
Do any of you guys trade here ?
I don't hear the sort of things I would expect from experienced traders.
I know quite a few, and the often will say something similar to what I have posted.
But maybe you guys are a different breed. (??)
I don't trade. I have 2 kids under 3 and a third on the way an I work very hard for an investment bank. Spare time is for my family.
If I am convinced of a change in Market direction I will offset risk with a spreadbetting based hedge but that us the limit of it.
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The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA
Is that why the price keeps going up?
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•facepalm•
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My post was a response to this one:
"Crikey. Can't think why postings are drying up on this site."
If by criticising JS and promoting independent thing amongst GEI, postings "dry up",
do you agree or disagree with me, that such a dynamic is healthy, if those who do post have ideas of their own, rather than merely acting as parrots of Sinclair?
There are any number of sites out there where you can find people who simply want to repeat the mantra from Sinclair and GATA, are they really interestiing? Do they really help you think more clearly about preserving wealth and what is really going on in the economy?
GEI's posters do not get it right all the time, but we do look beyond the mainstream, and that includes looking beyond the ideas of the Gold purist mainstream as well. That may be a smaller audience to begin with, but as these fresh ideas, or at least some of them, prove out - then the interest in GEI will grow.
It's the way that you do it. You come across as an immature petulant childish aggressive dick. And that puts people off bothering to engage.
You may not intend to. Or believe that you do. But you do.
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This sort of comment amazes me.
I proved over many months that I could beat Buy & Hold in the Silver market,
and then I started a thread at the beginning of the Year with Gold at/near $1550, saying it was a good buying point.
"Gold Charts look Bullish as we start 2012"
Meantime, JS is telling people that Silver is about to shoot up to $60, just before it drops maybe $2 in a day and begins a new correction?
Do you love BS, or are you just pretending? You guys need to wake up and see what junk food you are feeding on. Why do you consume it? Is it an addiction of some sort?
Crikey. Can't think why postings are drying up on this site.
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Coming back to this. Yes, it will seize, but the the Zulauf scenario will happen: a HUGE flood of paper money will flush out the debt constipation. Markets will unseize, but they will be changed. Gold will go up +$1,000 the first day. +$2,000 the second, and +$5,000 the third. That's what I find more likely than the system just seizing up and freezing. Bernanke has made a promise, and he has kept it so far. Free unlimited money for everyone (sorts of).
Policy responses are always too slow, too little, too late, and too disjointed. The mechanics of unblocking the system are more complicated and time consuming than politicians understand.
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I have a family of 2 kids under 3 and another on the way. I STRd 2.5 years ago and invested 50% in gold. Working and living in London.
I am very happy with my choice to buy and hold.
I have an extremely demanding day job and can barely keep on top of my basic family commitments let alone spend hours mucking around doing personal trading.
I also happen to work for a major investment bank. There is absolutely no chance in hell that I would hold paper in ant greater proportion than necessary.
When this sucker goes it will go spectacularly quickly. The system will seize up in MINUTES. Everything is on a hair trigger.
The only thing that matters is what you have in your possession right now.
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Well done to callmejoe. He has made good profits and sold for a specific reason. He may or may not have got the timing exactly right, and he may or may not have done things in the same way as you. But please don't lambast or ridicule him for doing what's right for him at this time.
We get dangerously close to groupthink on this site sometimes, and either exclude people with contrary views or try to make them feel bad about their choices.
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
Need to read their terms of reference. Are they compelled to restock? If so, from leases that can be unwould as a force majeure? Open market? Or just 'default' and settle in cash?
Edit: Make Ire != majeure (although it is a prescient auto-correct!)