Bosworth

Bubb

I admire and respect you but why do you persist in coming onto this thread and gloating?

Very few of us on this thread have the time or the inclination to do what you do for your living - that's the point of a buy and hold strategy.

Will you be happy to see us all on the trading thread if you take a big hit one day, chortling about your losses?

I really worry that the casualt investor new to this game will be deterred from taking an initial position because of all the noise.

Please can you keep the trading banter to the trading thread.

Bos.

To own the roof over one's head has utility that I don't think you can easily measure in currency.

But you can measure it in terms of income required to service the very real debt.

I think what would really help this forum would be for every thread to be overrun by petty arguments about trading vs buy and hold. What is the point of the other threads if the noise can't be contained over there? I get the principle of trading gold. I just don't care. I want to talk about long term gold and how world events are shaping up.

So that's £1000 per week, and at 5% yield implies a Property worth £ 1 million.

Have I got that right?

 

 

I have a hard time imagining how the UK can sustain prices that high.

Yip. Actually house would ask £1.25m, perhaps more. One a couple of doors down has been on at £1.6m for a dew months but not moved.

I agree with you. But when you can get a fixed mortgage for 5 years cheaper than buying it's a funny place to be. Of course I'd be screwed after the fix ended but that feels a lifetime away...

Interesting times!

Just curious, but what/where exactly are you renting for 4k/month?

That's a heck of a lot of money for accomodation for a family of 4, even in some of the plushest parts of London.

N2. £4k is very average for moderate houses round here.

It's a personal choice and a very hard one at that.

I am in a similar position. STRd in 2009, 2 kids under 3.

Paying nearly £4k a month in rent and staring down the barrel of a 10% uplift. Buying would be cheaper and with fixed rates so low, even factoring in a 20% HPC, buying seems irresistible.

Really hard times for an uber bear like me.

I empathise with your position but cannot give you an answer...

Feels like a good chunk of the fall was down to yet another comex margin hike. Fundamentals intact, I suspect.

Crikey! That's some spanking...

London update

 

Top end houses/flats are setting new highs and at volume. The flood of work on my plate and the prices being achieved is breath taking. Are we at the start of a crack up boom as the money just keeps on flooding into residential property.

Nonsense in my bit of leafy N2 London. Prices have until recently been very sticky - above 2007 peak in many cases.

In the last few months I have started to see some real falls on properties that are not "perfect". Some even taking >6 months to sell which is unheard of around these parts.

From why I can see, London is starting to wake up and smell the reality.

I view the price of gold in terms of a long term trend sitting on top of foundations of exceptional items. The trend will revert to medium term but this will be shifted up the axis as the exceptional items keep making the foundations taller (eg US rating, war, Euro issues, sovereign default risk).

I still think the way Nixon announced the end of convertibility "temporarily" to "stabilize the dollar" funny. It wasn't even the first "element," but the third element.

 

Modern body-language experts would have a field day with this today: double blinking, looking down, wiping nose.

I bought back in. Gold moving inversely to the share indices, end of options window, moving into september, CDS rising everywhere, sovereign situation out of control, qe3 likely this weekend etc etc

What was I thinking trying to cream off a few extra % profit?

Few people on this site post what they do ahead of time. I want to change that so we can properly assess views.

I cracked. Sold a chunk (about 20%) of my physical at $1876 this am.

Enough to feel ok if it corrects.

Not enough to feel I lost out if it soars.

I normally time trades totally wrong so fingers crossed for everyone else

$1,900 been and gone...

I developed Sarbanes Oxley data models for one of the banks at Canary Wharf some years ago. They all seemed very indoctrinated in to the financial system, I can't imagine convincing any of them in the benefits of gold... Good luck with that one!

 

I still plan to ruin a few more dinner parties!

You'd be surprised. Most I work with are fairly open to new ideas. It's a fairly dynamic environment and people are always receptive to new ways of working. This extends into at least listening to contrary-systemic views. Acting on it is a different matter, but that's common challenge to all fiat-tastic civilians...

All we can do is keep chipping away...

You must be classed as a heretic if you work in the financial sector and you're in to gold!

It pays the bills. Switched from consulting firm and joined a big IBank. Ultimate hedge - salary and livelihood go great guns if they economy takes off again (or is QEd to death), banking jobs likely to be protected to the bitter end if things continue to turn down, and I have my physical if it goes totally pete tong.

I also use my position to explain very clearly to everyone who will listen what I think is happening. And to some who aren't listening but are trapped with me. My wife thinks I ruin dinner parties.

Edit: sinner parties are probably more fun but I meant dinner parties...

In my entire extended family, friends, and work circles only 2 people plus me have gold. I work in Financial Markets and am an ex Consultant. Virtually all of my friends are top .1% income bracket.

One is an old holder. One bought about 6 weeks ago.

Feels a long way from mania yet.

Looks like all the online PM dealers are on lock down.

 

Edit: So for a short period of time, physical is not available at any price!

CID quoting $1,610 to $1,810 spread for Buffalos.

Not tried to purchase - saying "delivery delays likely"...

At times like this I start to wonder whether I've done enough to protect my family (especially living just down the road from Tottenham!)

Oh my. The little silver minx still has claws

.

Looks like BB has been right all along. Gold, trade of the decade and all that. Surely if you had lisened to him you would have quadrupled your funds, at least. 2003 gold was about 200/oz. Ok so house prices continued for a while.

I still wonder if BB is right on the next trade of the decade-Japan? I suppose he is betting that Japan comes out of her K winter. Still a ways to go yet. But the lows were Nikkei 7-8000 odd. So far...I wonder if Bonner moved out of gold or is just having a punt with his profits? Somehow I doubt he has gone cold on gold.

Not sure I agree on Japan. As an export led economy, which markets will see strong growth?

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-07-21/robin-griffiths-is-a-gold-bull-and-equity-bear

Griffiths goes for gold - again

 

Mike Foster

 

21 Jul 2011

 

Back in mid-May, the price of gold, at $1.490 an ounce, was looking soggy. But poor sentiment didn’t put Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital off the yellow metal. On the contrary, he decided the traditional summer lull would come to an end early – by June 29, to be precise.

Following a 0.68% rise to $1.510 that day, we waited three weeks to see whether Griffiths had got it right. And the subsequent rise in the price of gold to $1,600 saw him pass the test with flying colours.

 

Griffiths is renowned as a technical analyst, extrapolating probable futures from charts of price trends, while taking account of seasonal factors and key fundamentals. He now thinks gold will track higher during the summer towards $1,650 or $1,700.

 

In the autumn, things will get interesting. He said: “It is my belief that gold will go ballistic at that point. You get that time and again, when you get a breakout.”

 

According to a chart published by advisory firm Institutional Investors, attached, it wouldn’t be hard to get the price to $2,155 in short order. Griffiths wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit $3,000, or $5,000 in inflation adjusted terms, by 2015.

 

But Griffiths goes further – as he often does. He takes the view the market will become increasingly nervous of the debasing of currencies being pushed through by governments desperate to restore sentiment to the debt market.

 

He believes the consumer price index is beloved by politicians because it understates inflation: “A fall in the price of the latest iPad was deemed worthy of inclusion in the index, helping to offset a rise in food prices. But, as far as I am aware, you can’t eat an iPad.” He believes that investors in India and China are increasingly likely to hedge their bets with gold.

 

To underline the case for the safe haven, Griffiths argues the technical position for Western markets is deteriorating fast. The French CAC 40 index is leading the way down with short term sentiment, indicated by the 50-day moving average, deteriorating faster than the 200-day average. Griffiths warns the UK, US and German indices are likely to follow in short order.

 

It's being so happy that keeps him going.

Struggling to make sense of silver. I held through the recent peak then fall but was getting increasingly nervous about my GS ratio as the falls continued. Then she goes and does a 5% in an afternoon. Little minx

Gold and silver moving against the Market. Each time that happens things normally start to get interesting. EUR/$ getting absolutely rogered as well...

Halifax shows UK house prices up >1% in June. But >3% down year on year.

Surprisingly the media are broadly still gloomy - even the BBC is downplaying the significance of the rise.