Bosworth

I am in a bit of a quandary and wouldn't mind hearing the thoughts of a few of the clever people on this site.

 

I currently live (with wife and kids) in a small inherited flat, too small for the family but a nice safety net. We are trying to buy a larger property (yes I know its a bad time to be doing this but we are far too cramped) and we have sale agreed on the flat for a good price - buyer is a investor/landlord.

 

But we can't find anywhere to move to (mainly due to the unrealistic prices people are currently marketing their properties at in my local area) and we are now in danger of losing the sale.

 

The option has been put forward to sell the flat and rent back from LL. I really don't know if this is a good idea, where would I put the cash and am I wise to let go of my families safety net in these uncertain times?

 

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Go for it. Options like that particularly golden one rarely come along so easily!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/41-belgian-central-bank-gold-has-been-lent-out

 

41% Of Belgian Central Bank Gold Has Been Lent Out

Is that good or bad relative to other central banks, or is not knowing the problem? Do we trust the numbers?

Dodd Frank is all about getting swaps and securties based swaps onto regulated exchanges so that greater transparency can be effected into the transaction.

I don't believe the buying of physical metals is covered.

What is covered is buying on the futures market if you have no intention if taking physical delivery.

Clearly rules may change in the future but no drama so far.

Is anyone else struggling to hold the line?

I STRd in 2009 and felt glad to have got a price about 8% off 2007 peak in London's Docklands. Since then have moved rentals a couple of times - all part of a slow orbit outwards from the centre to more suburbia. 2 kids, including one small baby. Last rental has been a nightmare - total amateur landlord totally unaware of his responsibilities. Every issue comes close to litigation to get anything done.

Since STRing property in the area I am interested in (N2) has gone up by more than 10%, my rent is vast at nearly £4k per month, I shifted most of my pension into cash/near-cash only to see the equities market go up by 15%, and am seeing the 50% of my STR fund that I didn't put into gold rapidly erroding. I am genuinely the laughing stock of my friends and family and it's getting hard to hold the line.

Classic "when the last bear turns bull" stuff? MSE style hugs needed.

RIGHTMOVE's Big Drop announcement:

 

+ November sellers cut their asking prices by 3.2%, the biggest monthly drop since December 2007

+ Falls now recorded in 4 out of the last 5 months, as year-on-year price growth heads for zero

+ 24,028 new sellers coming to market per week, down 9.1% on previous month yet still outstripping muted mortgage approvals by 2 to 1

 

Unseasonally high number of unsold properties and longest ever time on the market mean sellers face tough competition, while winter buyers hang back waiting for bargains

 

/see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-pric...x/november-2010

 

ANY ONE Surprised by that big drop ?

 

Last month, after a big jump, I said:

 

 

 

I didn't expect the "give back" in a single month !

 

The really surprising thing to me was that London asking prices held up so well - down only -0.4%

What do you think the smaller drop in London actually means?

Wow! Despite recent fall in silver I just popped over to CID for a look around and 1Kg coins are 689 quid tax incl!! Used to be 245 a few years ago.

Ho hum...

It's interesting. There does seem to be an increasing premium for physical (both gold and silver). Unclear if this is a supply fundamental or just profiteering. I guess time will tell.

In time I am sure you will feel fine about your purchase. I would prefer to see if we don't have a correction around these levels. Maybe average the 10K in over a few weeks?? I think silver is more like the Big Dipper rather than Challenger. Pick your moments and you won't end up puking up. Still the overall direction is upwards, I hope...

£10k WAS my averaging in

Anyways, my personal contrary indicator is working fine. A healthy 6% off since purchase!

Just bought another £10k of silver.

Guaranteed for the rocket to turn into Challenger

I make that about an 8% swing over the trading day.

Pretty volatile!

Dunno. Am not a chartist. Can you give me your view?

UK Halifax index showed August prices up 0.2%, seasonally adjusted.

It's taking some time to turn...

Excellent advice from d2thdr. Gold is used to store wealth because men cannot be trusted to keep their promises. Entrusting your gold to others is the height of foolishness - as many will find out in the future.

You'd really keep kilos at home? Seems more of a risk to me than "trusting" goldmoney, although I am not entirely comfortable with the remote aspect...

I am waiting for that and when there is one on pretty much every night, with repeats on Dave, then I will probably swap for other assets.

Double face-palm territory:

- It is illegal to hold bullion in the uk

- ETFs and BullionVault are basically the same.

I give up.

I've started my own blog in the appropriate GEI section containing lots of PM-orientated charts

 

See:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry181049

 

One thing I have looked at is the price action in days leading up to, and after, an options expiry date. This is for the past 3 and 10 years.

 

future dates:

 

 

Daily change in USD gold price around options expiry date - past 3 years and 10 years

 

 

 

I wish there was more of a pattern here - but alas not. It appears any manipulation around the expiry date is only occasional (and thus, produces a random pattern when averaged over years), with no systematic takedown obvious.

I've started buying in again. I don't think there will be a dip for a while that will be big enough to justify the risk of holding the cash. September is nearly here after all...

Bearish article on this historically high price of gold

Not that I accept the world is the same place as it was 140 years ago. Plus lack of sound money, oil, deficits, population growth etc. etc.

Comments were interesting...

Isn't it largely irrelevant what the CB rate is anyway? Mortgage and savings rates broadly decoupled a long time ago. If the Bond markets demand it, rates will rise irrespective of what the CBs do.

The question for me is: how much of a real rate rise is needed before mortgage rates would be pushed up?

Getting close to back up the truck time. A good shoot of GBP/USD over 1.60 might have me buying.

The fossicking is ok, but slow!! (repeat post of the pics from the tools thread.)

Is it me or does that look exactly like the UK&Irl?

Incidentally, how many grammes is that?

Bos.

I think it's really interesting that in the panic of the last day or so, gold was the focus. But instead of retracing, silver then moved up to re-align. Worth remembering next time we see this sort of behaviour.

Monday?

I reckon whether or not one does this has to depend on how much of their worth is in gold [percentage wise] and then how much of that position one wants to trade. Still, has to be quite a risk selling gold in this environment and not one I'd like to take.

 

Have you considered trading the more volatile silver instead?

 

To trade silver, it helps to first have a good sized solid core position in gold. Otherwise, you will likely tie yourself in knots trading a silver holding that is also your core bullion holding.

 

With a good core position in gold, it will be easier to sell a good sized silver position when you think it is in the upper range. The best currency to sell silver into would be dollars of course. Then when you feel silver has declined enough buy again.

 

This trade is quite an easy one, psychologically speaking, for me to make as I think in the short/ medium term both silver and dollar are in bull markets. It is just a trade on volatility, with miminal risk, and without trading [losing your position] your less volatile and more precious gold.

Why not hold your core holding but short-term trade using ETFs? I have on occasion *red face* shorted gold when I expected the price to fall a bit, but didn't want to risk my core holding. Given how quickly things move when they move, feels like the safest option.

Open to other ideas, though...

So does hun g parliment = pound collapse tommorow ? whats your strategy from here guys ?

Difficult to unpick the noise of today with the election result, tbh.

Suspect limited movement unless the result is well out of whack with expectation - lots priced in already.

The fun will start when coalitions are talked about and what policies these will lead with...

How do you end up with a hung parliment by the way ? Is it like a draw ?

It's where no single party has an overall majority. There are 650 seats up for grabs therefore in order to form an effective government you need at least 326 seats. More means you can handle some dissenters. Less than 325 seats and you have to do deals with another party to pass every bit of legislation. Quickly becomes impossible to make tough decisions - minority parties will hold out for ridiculous terms and demands knowing their vote is sorely needed.

Gold decoupled from both the stock markets AND silver.

Interesting.

God forbid we should all agree.

 

Thanks you for the generous words.

 

Had dinner with colleagues today. 2 years ago they were rubbishing my views.... now they're listening more closely.... due no doubt to the corroboration of current events. I think I should have them lining up to buy at the local bullion bank in a week or two.

I'm banned by my wife from trying to educate people. Apparently I've got a reputation for ruining dinner parties.

Out at 17.90.

RH - thank you for posting. I follow your views quite closely and with interest, although not necessarily with agreement

What this site lacks is people who will publicly take a punt and stand by it. Plenty of "after the event" postings, but very few like yours, where we can all talk about whether it went right or wrong, and the reasons behind it.

Thank you.

Hi,

 

I am wanting to buy a bit of gold as a hedge against inflation/hyperinflation. I have looked into it over the past few days and am thinking about buying gold sovereigns from ATS Bullion or Coinvest, would you recommend either or both of these dealers? Also, I haven't been able to find out why different Gold Sovereigns with the same gold content are priced differently on the same site (there are some at £180 and some at £190 on coinvest), is it worth paying the extra £10 (would I get back more than the approx. 2% extra I paid for the £190 coin when I came to sell it) or is it just the rarity value that increases the price?

 

I am a novice and so would appreciate any advice anyone thinks is relevant to my situation. I live in the UK and as I say I am doing this to (hopefully) protect part of my savings as I am saving for a house but with the way things are going it looks like I may be waiting a year or more before prices come down to a reasonable level.

 

Thanks in advance.

If your motive for buying is as an inflation hedge then "gold is gold is gold" so go for the physical form that you are interested in and go for the version that gives you the most gold for your money.

I have used both ATS Bullion and CoinInvestDirect.com. Both were great. In future I would probably use ATS Bullion on the basis that I can pop there in person to do the deal (very average little office to the side of the Savoy Hotel in London) and would not have to wait for delivery etc.