Pluto
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Posts posted by Pluto
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Pluto, presumably if the US/UK Govt started rumours about confiscation, cratering the POG due to a wave of ETF selling, who in their right minds would be selling their physical? ergo; the price of physical would literally be on the moon, no?
I can see this causing the disconnect between physical and paper by orders of magnitude.
If you can see through the paper folly price, I don't think you have anything to worry about IMO.
I think initially the price of all gold will decline because of the panic. However, as the dust settles the price of real gold should come back.
I am not overly worried, I was just making the point that physical gold and other gold in someone else's possession is not the same thing.
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The reason for Japans deflation are many, not least it's demographics:
Japan’s Slow-Motion Demographic Catastrophe
Yes, the Dow dropped 89% from the autumn of 1929 to the summer of 1932 but unfortunately you are looking at the wrong part of the cycle. 1929 was the peak in p/e valuations and the Dow back then was full of the new technology stocks of the day just in the same way that 2000 was also the peak in p/e valuations and the Nasdaq this time was where most of the new technology stocks were listed, ie. dot.com
The Nasdaq fell 73% from the spring of 2000 to the autumn of 2002 - a similar large crash over almost exactly the same time frame as before. Had Alan Greenspan not done what he did then I'm sure the Nasdaq fall would have approached the 89% fall on the Dow. If you look at the long wave of the Dow from 1929 to 1938 (9 years) and compare it with the long wave of the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2009 (9 years) you will see the same patterns - we are in a period that is comparable to 1938 and not the early 1930's.
Would you bet against Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton being wrong?
Yes, Warren Buffet is a shyster and Bolton is a fool.
For the stock market to go up there has to be earnings from somewhere. I can't see earnings coming from anywhere. We spent tomorrows earnings yesterday. It is time to payback debts.
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What do you think of BullionVault / Goldmoney?
I’m planning to sell a load of silver coins and move the money in to GM silver. I don’t feel comfortable with the amount of silver I have at the moment. I’ve moved a load to my mum’s house for safety but I still want to offload some coins.
What I think of Goldmoney or Bullionvault is irrelevant. It is the government that you have to worry about and what they are going to do that is the issue. These institutions have to operate within the laws that govern them.
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best have a means to get cash should such a etf sell off prove brutal to the physical price - but in a way this happened last year to a lesser extent where the price of physical adjusted itself away from the paper price
The physical spread price of coins is herding more people into ETFs thinking they are getting a deal by not paying commissions or excessive spreads. Except one is gold and the other a wall street abortion.
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Could they fool the people for a second time ?? I cant see people parting with physical under any threat, when history shows that it will be revalued upwards in the future, But yes the ETF sell off would be brutal
You have no control over ETFs other than to buy with Fiat and sell for Fiat. The benefits of having bullion is null and void by having gold in ETFs.
The threat of confiscation by a credible source will crater the price of gold, as the first to panic will be those who do not have possession. This is same reason the banks collapsed during the great depression.
The bigger these bastard ETFs get the harder the POG could fall.
The oil futures collapsing from 150 to 35 gives you an indication of what could happen when many run for the exits at once.
This, in my humble opinion, is the ace up their sleeve. Volcker warned the government to have control over the gold market - just in case - and this is wall streets solution, herd everyone into these schemes and control the coin bullion market by inducing shortages thereby increasing spreads. Volcker's only option was to increase IRs to 20% to force gold onto the market, he did not have ETFs back then to manipulate.
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youre not the only one
ETFs are another abortion born by wall street. They are tomorrows CDOs, MBSs and SIVs, and yesterdays MFs.
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It depends on what stocks your talking about - having gold, silver and platinum miners in my portfolio (about 20% in total) has hedged the risk and overall I'm up. I would rather put money into undervalued stocks near a bottom at this point than into gold which is nearing a mid-cycle top - I think gold is now overvalued compared to silver and oil and will begin it's long correction once it reaches a new record high.
It's possible that stocks will fall further but I'm happy to trade this market - at some point it's going to turn up because no matter how bad the news has been everyday, we still havn't got below the November lows which is actually a good sign. 47% down on the Dow is more than the 45% we had in 1938 which was a far worse period for stocks than now - Japan was already at war with China in 1937.
A contrarian would say that because all the news is so bad that we are at a bottom - especially when many still fear the market will fall even further. Just remember that gold can perform equally as badly as the stockmarket and over the same agonising length of time.
Dow fell 45% from January 1973 to December 1974
Gold fell 43% from December 1974 to August 1976
We are nowhere near the bottom in stocks. The Nikkei 225 went from 48,000 to 7,800 and is still dropping. Stocks dropped 90% during the last depression. Sure you can trade this market and make some lolly, but you have to be nimble as the market could collapse at any time. During the tech collapse many were spouting the same claptrap as you only to be completely wiped out.
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They have threatened this over and over again, it's a positive sign a sign that the cartel are running out of ammo.
I would not be too concerned about the IMF. I am more worried, as I've always been, about ETFs.
Most of the banks failed during the Great depression because of rumors circulating that gold would be confiscated. The government at the time did not deny any of the rumors. These bastard gold ETFs could cause the price of Gold to collapse. All it would take is a credible rumor of gold confiscation and the ETFs unloading would crater the POG, just like in the great depression when the rumor of Gold confiscation destroyed the banks. Bernanke eluded to "rumors" being able to collapse the POG in one of his speeches.
This is the biggest fear gold bugs should have. The possession of gold is more important than ownership - they are not the same thing.
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YEP
plus
aint no sustainable earnings coming until this is either written off or inflated away
not to say there wont be a bear market bouce in stocks though
barclays bank bust before the year is out
That chart is obscene and immoral, and is why we're in for more misery that will see grown men crying like babies.
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No one seems to get this and yet it's staring them right in the face - equities is where the money will go next. Stocks are down a massive 45%, inflation is very low and interest rates are very low - as Adam Hamilton from Zeal says, this wasn't a stockmarket crash it was a panic and the two are different as crashes begin with overvaluation. We didn't have an overvalued stockmarket in in 2007/2008 - panics tend to reverse themselves when the dust settles.
So what happened at the end of 1974 when stocks had crashed by around 45% and gold was at a new all time high?. They traded places for the next 18 months - gold fell by 43% and the Dow went up by around 73% in that period up to August 1976.
The panic is justified. Dividends and future earnings are being slashed left right and center. The stocks that were correctly priced are now way way overvalued based on future earnings. Don't try and catch a falling knife.
Stocks have a long way to go to the downside.
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please excuse my exuberance.
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They are mostly people who feel angry for missing out. Sad really.
Yes, and they will be the ones who will be punished the most. Because of their pining for property and waiting it out they will endure the full wrath of the house price crash, as they will be catching the falling knife. I have news for them the crash in the UK has not started yet.
On topic, gold's not too shabby this morning, it must be all the
billionsTRILLIONS they are going to print. -
I have just rfecieved a pm from you on hpc.
I assume it's you
do you still need the hpc gold thread link ? I ask as I am sitting downstairs & this will involve me going upstairs onto my other lappy, as it's on my favs on that one......
edited - god, I need to get out today & get some work done, & off this fooken lappy.
:unsure:HPC is a website for property suckers in the UK. Nearly everyone that posts there wants house price inflation - it just has a higher proportion of those that missed out on the increase in prices the during the early 2000s. In the end they will be the first to jump in when they perceive prices are going up again and they will be hit the most. Whenever I hear the term "dream" house it makes me want to puke. People who dream of houses are insane and need therapy.
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So you think there's zero chance of wage increases then?
More chance of wage reductions and a three day week.
Don't be suckered into property. It will be a mugs game for years.
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So do you think there is zero chance that nominal price may rise while "real" prices fall?
Zero chance of any nominal increase unless wages start to rise. You can take that to the bank - if you can find a decent one.
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I see the HPCmuppets are trying to suppress gold chit chat - again - but they can't.
They claim a few internet posters on their house price bull discussions, as they are all bulls in bears clothing really, are ramping up the price of a world wide commodity like gold on their site.
Delusional.
These muppets will be piling into the housing market and catching the falling knife as one might say, then regretting the day they silenced the only voices of reason that were around them.
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yes, I remember that. when gold hit $1000 they printed a huge picture of a bar of gold, not on the front of the business section, but on the front page of the main section for all to see.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...currencies.html
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Miners not joining in this rally. Either the rally is going to retract or the miners are going to the launch pad ready for count-down.
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UK houses will be next to worthless once half the population has emigrated/starved.
As it is, there are more than a million vacant homes in the UK.
...and the ones that are lived in are half empty.
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UK houses will be next to worthless once half the population has emigrated/starved.
As it is, there are more than a million vacant homes in the UK.
...and the ones that are lived in are half empty.
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The average UK house price is now 234 oz of gold, down from almost 700 oz in 2004.
100oz here we come. We should start a 100oz club and track houses as they fall under this target.
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...BREAKING NEWS....GOLD JUST NEW HIGHS IN ALL CURRENCIES....GOLD BREAKS 700EU /toz .... GOLD BUGS SEEN CELEBRATING WORLD OVER.....
:unsure:
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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People are more worried about the return of their money than on profiting from it.
As I said before, you can make some lolly by trading this market, but we are going lower if not flat out collapse. The earnings are collapsing into losses. I have some shorts, so my money is where my mouth is. And by the way I shorted GE at 23 while Warren "shyster" Buffet was buying, so yes I do go against him. All I want now is my Apple short to come into the money as that should fall by 50% also.