In his defense he has not updated his charts for a number of months. However I was indeed referring to the fact that his mortgage approvals indicate a severe reduction in prices which looks very similar to your curve on the Irish crash. Maybe clearer what I mean if I put the graph here (yellow line is the prediction),
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
It clearly shows a clear deviation from the trend probably starting from the point where interest-rates got absurdly low distorting the market to an extreme. This probably indicates that people in the UK try to find a better place for their savings as leaving it in the bank got them nothing. However if the bounce is completely funded without mortgages...then where the **** does the money come from?
ps) I fully agree btw that your approach is picking up trends earlier, but it (for me) is more difficult to see the logic behind it.