Jake

What about the 'correction' down to below $700 after it had reached $1,000?

Yep..that was a super buying opportunity. Lets hope for another!

I'm still hoping for 1650-10,000-moon btw, but not before a correction.

Lower highs, Higher lows...For sure we are going somewhere soon. My own feeling is down into the 800's before coming back up again. We haven't had a correction to speak of yet and it's still August (just).

No buying from me till we have a move either way we can be sure of. But no selling either!

I would sell some silver and some platinum as these two of the three would suffer most IF we have another bout of deleveraging. But best of luck with what you decide and I hope it all works out for you!

Thanks Stobar! That's the one. I think THIS TIME Prechter might be right regarding gold. Mind you I am not brave enough to sell like in the hope of buying it back again.

Good luck to everyone in what they decide!

This has just come in my in box, too. Well woth another read.

http://www.elliottwave.com/press_room/seen...rd/default.aspx

DrSolar, I think you have the right strategy for the 'average joe'...well not quite average joe who has no gold whatsoever. Your strategy has been mine since 2004 and it hasnt done any harm. I've slowed off for the time being and switched to silver as it seems so cheap for ounces of Brittanias or whatever you fancy. If it falls to 4 quid/coin I'm really not bothered because 1. I'll have it and 2.I won't have the worry of my sterling cash.

I dont know whether I am right or wrong any more. But I would rather have 'real money' than fiat cash and be able to get it while it is available. Thus keep chipping away and buy on the dips.

I think after a few years of reading around the problems we are having I know who I believe and I know who I trust. I know who to take with a pinch of salt and I know who to dump in the garbage. Just wish I had bags more useless cash to exchange for the 'real thing'. As it is I just keep working and hoping I make my targets before they move away from me.

At the mo I will heed RP as it seems like good advice. Patience is like the devil, though I am learning and keeping an open mind.

This must be the one (?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...,-Prechter-Says

Thanks Stobar! That's the one. I think THIS TIME Prechter might be right regarding gold. Mind you I am not brave enough to sell like in the hope of buying it back again.

Good luck to everyone in what they decide!

Do you have a link for that? I thought he was becoming more bullish on gold these days.

Was searching for that and found it on Yahoo Tech Ticker. But this link is useful too.

http://economiccrisiswatch.blogspot.com/20...-on-august.html

I am looking for reasons to buy Gold now, since the seasonal window has a limited number

of days left, but I find this to be off-putting.

Hasnt Prechter just said that we'd all be surprised by how low gold could fall? For the time being I am holding off...and getting in a few dollars instead.

Thinking of you Dr Bubb! How do you like Chris Weber's advice? I know you would rather rattle and shake but holding might have been a good option instead of buying HK property?? Anyway interesting read from Mr Weber..

My Real Objection to 'Paper' Gold

By Chris Weber

I myself have not bought and would not buy any of the exchange-traded "paper" gold: GLD, GTU, CEF, or any others.

I prefer to only own actual metals. I have mentioned these products as a courtesy to readers, but sometimes I wish I never had gone down that route at all. There are potential drawbacks to all of these products...

There have been questions raised about how the holders of GLD treat their gold. Some have charged that they loan it out to central banks for them to short the gold market. There have also been questions about how the metals are held. I prefer not to even have to worry about these issues, so I would not buy GLD.

As for GTU and CEF, they pledge to hold actual metals and not lend them out. However, as these are closed-end funds, you can end up paying a premium over the net asset value. Sometimes this premium can be quite high. And I see no reason at all to buy CEF, the Central Fund of Canada. As I write, the premium over metal value is 13%.

Further, CEF is a mix of gold and silver. You are better off just buying the metals themselves. Even if you are intent upon buying "paper" metals, instead of buying CEF, you will probably be better off buying your preferred mix of gold in the form of either GTU or GLD and silver through SLV or one of the other ETFs.

As for using covered calls – where you sell call options against your shares in GLD or another metal ETF – I have never done this. If you are happy using this strategy, go ahead. You are using a derivative anyway when you buy either GLD or GTU, and using covered calls adds yet another derivative.

I simply stay away from derivatives and prefer to own the actual asset. Derivatives have caused big problems in the recent past, and will continue to in the future. I would want to steer investors away from any but physical gold held in your name. This goes to the very heart of good investing.

In my experience, I believe that it is the hardest thing in the world for any investor to first identify a bull market in an asset, take a position in it, and then hold on until near the end of that bull market.

Most people, of course, don't enter into a bull market until it is well underway. But it is also true that most people do not have the patience to simply hold that asset during all of the inevitable corrections and dull periods that take place during the course of a bull market.

These bull markets can last for 20 years, more or less. In urging readers to shun paper gold products that can be sold quickly, I am trying to get them to stay in the bull market and not sell out too soon. Too often, once they sell or trade themselves out, they don't get back in, except maybe at a vastly higher price. If you own your own physical gold in a way that makes it hard for you to sell, it is obviously easier to stay the course of the entire bull cycle.

The Greatest Currency Trade of the Millennium

Why I'm Happy to Hold Wealth in Gold and Silver

I get a lot of questions about how best to sell gold. The people who ask them will most likely not reap the full benefits of the bull market. Let's say that gold will continue to correct for another year or so, and drop further. If they are holding GLD or even GTU, it is very easy for them to call their bank or broker and sell out.

But if they have the actual asset, either near at hand or in a safe vault far from home, it is not so easy to sell at a whim, or in a moment of temporary fear.

So that's really my advice: hold your metals in such a way that makes it both the easiest for you to forget that you have them, and hardest for you to quickly dump them.

Good investing,

Chris Weber

I cant see the point in selling out of silver till at least 35-1 and even then I dont think I could part with my silver. It is so ridiculously cheap even at 14 US/oz. And it could go way down to 15-1, who knows. Best thing to do (for me) it just keep chipping away at both. When the ratio is higher buy silver, when lower buy gold. simple stuff really.

In the meantime I've gone and bought dollars on a romans hit and hope job. Actually, I think the dollar will bounce here a bit and its a good contrarian bet.

I also think silver will fall so pencil me in for silver at 12.50 ish. Gold back to 920ish by the end of this month?

October will be the time to be fully decided on where to be IMO. Place those bets Ladies and Gentlemen...

woops. Sorry DS. Didnt mean to hi jack your post like that...just the way it turned out...apologies

I recall a cwr podcast from earlier this year where you were considering advising a friend to buy gold with his 15k GBP savings. You mentioned that usually this wasnt a good idea when gold was breaking to new highs in GBP but that the future of the UK/Sterling were so bleak that it made sense in this case.

 

Does this advice still hold in your opinion? Or has new information shaped your view to something different.

 

Also with regard to your recent moneyweek article would you really seek the exit in gold if we got below £500? I was pretty surprised at that. I had imagined £450-500 gold would be a buy with both hands situation.

 

 

'earlier this year'!! A few weeks ago, or months more like.

 

I like CC's commentaries and all that but there is a lot of conflicting advice in there...like everything in our own minds, perhaps his 'advice' should be taken with a pinch of salt. Imagine being that 'friend' who bought a few weeks ago (in fairness he DID say 'buy gold but not yet, maybe).

 

I do think he gets a lot of pointers from some posters on here, which is fine, but often the timing is a bit awkward like this conversion to gold going in for a beating, maybe. It is like he is convinced in his own mind, writes a great article, then has afterthoughts...

 

Still, like his writing style. V readable.

 

Thanks for the great work.

 

Cheers

All Allan's comment of Neely's "50% Down" prediction

"Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October's low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction," Neely explains. "The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!" Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.

Glenn Neely is providing this information not as a specific trade recommendation but as a general public service announcement. A prominent Elliott Wave analyst, Neely was recently recognized in Timer Digest's May issue as the #1 stock market timer for the past 12 months.

/full release: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

= = =

Allan said...

Derek - Neely has his own version of pattern recognition analysis that shares only partial similarities with orthodox EW. It is complex and way too complicated to take on here, but is well worth your independent study. Glenn made a rare public statement today, I am respecting the enormity of its implications.

WOW!! Any news on GOLD and SILVER?

Steve was told to 'lay off' and he has. (about Pesavanto). At least that is my guess.