klogger

I found ZSL today while looking for information on AGQ. It is the opposite of AGQ and aims to return -2x. If a correction is coming then it would seem that would be a good play until AGQ hits 40, it also seems to be at a low on the charts.

QE3 would seem to be a requirement for pictures of rockets to be posted rather than longs jumping of cliffs. Do you agree that the market will price out QE3 if the US employment data hits its 8.2% or lower target?

Unfortunately that is not easy on the NetDania chartstation software as it doesn't allow any annotations (trend lines, fib retrace etc.) at all when viewing in log format. Maybe I am missing a setting somewhere. I have drawn in the lines using Paint instead, so they will not be very accurate. It does seem to give a very different perspective on things. That chart looks like we are safely in the breakout and heading back for the range trading where we will reach it again at ~USD50. I am changing from cautious to bull in the space of a log chart - thanks for asking for the log version. Are you reading that in a similar way to me?

Everything I read about silver is very bullish at the moment, it is hard to find a bear argument anywhere. However it seems to me that silver was range trading at this level from 10/2008 until 10/2010. It is currently back within that area, so there may be significant resistance at the green arrow and this rise is due to the bounce of the 144 MA.

The rise in physical seems to be on a low volume (100,000 a day with 5 times that appearing more typical since February according to NetDania), and on the daily chart the RSI is at 78. I am expecting a slight fall back over the next week to 28.50 or 29. Can anyone confirm to a newbie that the rise of 8.5% in a week on low volume is typically a sign that a slight correction is due?

I have a 78.60% fib retrace at USD25.94, I think it may well hold there. If not, I will be with you between USD19.55 to USD21.38 ish.

Mine hasn't arrived yet, but it has spurred me on to reading another chapter of one of my half finished books (It is Dangerous To Be Right When The Government Is Wrong). good luck with the options book.

I have has the task of learning about options on my list for several months now, your post finally spurred me onto doing something about it. I ordered the book Options for the Beginner and Beyond: Unlock the Opportunities and Minimize the Risks as it seems to have gotten some very positive reviews. I wonder how long it will sit with my other books before I get around to reading it.

I have 26.50, 26.32, your 23/24 and then 21. Why do you think the 26's will be taken out, or do you not consider them support?

Thanks for the reply, it gives me something to consider for the future. I guess if you have enough experience, confidence and the time to keep an eye on the charts regularly then a small profit can be made.

GF has not been about since a change of moderators. I emailed him to find out where else he posts but I didn't get a reply. Does anyone know where he posts now?

Maybe I have misunderstood you. Are you taking a profit on the $31 -> $30.70 difference ($0.30 minus commissions)? Should I assume an ETF in that case? That to me would not be worth the risk of missing a large run up, but I would be interested in hearing other styles of trading.

I projected the long term trend line to the end of 2014. I did this for both GDP and the USD and came up with the following figures: Currency Highest price Long term average price Increase (%) Projected price 2014 Projected peak 2014 Jan 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2014 Dec 2014 GBP 30.00 13.57 121 26.79 31.00 59.20 68.51 USD 49.60 22.64 119 37.88 43.41 82.85 95.06 Column explanation: The Highest price is the highest price reached at the peak date of 25/04/2011; The Long term average price is the lower trend line price on the same day as the given highest price; The Increase is the % difference between the Highest price and the Long term average price; The Projected price 2014 is the projected long term average price based on the lower long term trend line; The Projected peak 2014 is the Projected price 2014 multiplied by the % Increase. Assumptions are: 1) There will be no change in the rate of change; 2) A spike of the same size that occurred 25th April 2011 will happen in 2014. I have only calculated the projected peak for January and December, the other months would be somewhere between the Jan 2014 projected peak value and the Dec 2014 projected peak value. In summary, I am currently expecting a price range of $82.85 to $95.06 (£59.20 to £68.51 assuming the fx rate stays the same). If the spike is smaller or does not happen, then I don't think we will see anything like $80-100.

Sorry, I had read your 1st post on this page where you had detailed that information, and then forgot about it! Yours numbers are interesting, have you posted a description of your model anywhere? As Ziknew says, I wish I had a model - so no sniggers from me.

I have been looking at Kinross recently. I have a potential buy in price @850, but as they are nearing their 2005 low (@639) I am going to watch it carefully in case it breaks down below 850. I will be looking to sell @~1600 in about 18 months time. Do you have a sell target for Kinross?

In theory and assuming that the grocer will accept them, but the face value of a 1oz Britannia is £100 so it is not sensible to do so.

It depends upon how you hold it. If you have bullion coin and you are required to pay GCT in the UK, then you don't pay CGT on the coins as they are counted as legal tender. If you hold gold in any other form, then you are required to pay CGT.

Warpig, I didn't know about the NetDania Chart Station application until you posted those images. I have been playing with it and I am extremely impressed with it - thanks.

jsmineset.com By looking at the HUI chart, Jim thinks that the gold shares are about to take off in a big way sometime in the next 6 months.

It looks to me as if an inverse head and shoulders is forming. I am expecting silver to correct about $3 here and bounce of the long term trend line (purple). I think that within a month or two the breakout will begin. There may be a possible re-test of the neckline after the initial breakout. I agree with GF that a long term rise to $158 within 12-18 months would be remarkable.

An interesting article looking at the GSR, mined amounts and current industrial usage of silver. The article predict a final price of $500 and uses data going back to 1344 with an all time high of $806 in 1477. Gold/Silver Price Ratio Getting Silly Again

You are an obvious troll by the way - you give no facts and add little to the discussion by this line of reasoning. I point this out as I am usually a silent reader and I have little to contribute compared to most on this forum, however I would prefer the quality of the posts to remain high so I don't plod through the useless ego trips.

Deleted due to feeding the troll by mistake.

Thanks for the reminder. Maybe that is why they have set that amount to smack down each time.

I vaguely remember that being discussed. Can you remember if it was the case that the trader would have made a profit or was it the case that the cost of the trade would have wiped out his profit?