Manual labourer
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Posts posted by Manual labourer
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I reckon 1560 before any move up !
Regards
ML
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Before a TSUNAMI!
The tide always goes out !
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I heard on the Kettler website that gold can be manufactured in unlimited quantities.
Here's an article which also claims this.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/04/22/intel-disclosures-and-gossip-such-as-not-to-spoil-your-tea/
I ****** glad I sold my bag of gold coins earlier this year.
I ****** glad I bought them from you !!!!!!!!
:lol: Regards
ML.
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Perspectives required here!
What is one mans castle is another mans sh!theap!
Regards
ML
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The reason the big builders have ridden this out is, of course, low interest rates.
In the late 80s some of the big builders went bust - because they could not service their debts as interest rates rose.
Nowadays there is a huge concerted effort between government, the banks and the big builders to keep all the balls in the air. So far, it has worked.
I do wonder if (when?) the merry go round will stop - for how much longer will investors have the money to buy gilts paying rock bottom rates.
Surely we only need interest rates to go up a little for the whole edifice to come tumbling down? Maybe not - maybe this is a 10 to 20 year correction where a generation misses out on home ownership and property gradually moves into the hands of investors.
One thing seems to be certain to me - nothing is going to change unless and until the younger generation priced out of home ownership and either forced to pay high rents or live with Mum and Dad gets angry and starts shouting the odds.
BOE has openly said stuff you savers !!!
We like the debtors and will do everthing to help them!
I think we will slowly move to a German style rent system with high debts property values slowly being erroded by inflation of wages !
The only hope for people on the sidelines is the 120b in intrest only mortgage debts which are comming up for remortgage.
Oh no problem sir you are 55 here is a forty year mortgage plan !
Regards
ML
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That's a bit of a narrow-minded biew.
What happens when these families' children want to buy their own homes and start their own families? They won't be able to afford a home, or if they do it'll likely be a 1br shoebox that they'll be tied to for years.
High house prices prevents all sorts of social mobility. The NINJAs become trapped and stay at home into their 30s and beyond. It's a crap state of affairs that impoverishes the young.
You are absolutely right, what I should of said is, in talking with the neighbors non of them care!
I totally agree with your statement and wish that the average house was 3.5 x the average wage with no stamp duty and high house mobility and turnover again.
Unfortunately with loads of MPs on the BTL band wagon everything that can be done to sustain high and unaffordable house prices will be done!
The only way to solve this IMVHO, is to change planning laws drastically and provide many more houses that people want to live in not 2bed shoe box flats.
How can you justify £5-7 k per acre farm land which at the stroke of a pen IE planning permission being granted increase in value to 1m per acre +.
This shows the chronic lack of supply of fresh land which is outside of the large developers land banks!!!!!!!!!!
They know exactly what they are doing as prices started to fall in 2008 they drastically cut off supply of new houses to reduce the fall in house prices. They cut overheads. IE made staff redundant and then sat on land banks just selling their more smaller uneconomical sites/parcels of land off to smaller builders.
This fall in supply is like Opec cutting production as oil demand falls it keeps the market price higher by drip feeding in rather thar over supply!!!
These big boys hold the land banks and therefore hold all the aces, they will only increase new house supply after demand rises with ising prices!
The big builders will ride the storm out and come out smelling of roses!
The guys sat on the side for 10 years waiting for 50% falls will come out smelling of sh!t
The only possible way was /is to invest in G/S as a rising asset against £/$ as the governments print QE etc to ease monetary liquidity. As demonstrated by GF house prices in ozs gold chart.
Staying in Sterling and hoping for house price falls is a losers game!
My bullish stance on gold is growing weaker by the day as I watch a strong recovery starting to come through!
Maybe we have hit the bottom!
Regards
ML
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Yep, I know a couple of builders that are doing very well at the moment, because (so they tell me) they didn't need big loans back in 2009 and bought up plots no-one was lending on.
One even came out of early retirement (he was on country house rescue once) as the deals were so good! (on the plots and the labour costs, which he reckoned had halved, so he didn’t give a s**t about selling 20% less than peak if he had to).
Others I know have had a miserable couple of years, but, then again, they didn't have the cashflow.
I guess one man’s recession really is another’s opportunity
Yes this was his first large development he had no debt bought the land from a much larger developer and hasn't looked back!
The profit margins have been very good due to the seller needed to "shut" the land to get debt down!
I can't see house prices going down in sterling terms AND AM BECOMING MORE BEARISH on prices in gold by the day.
Maybe that is a good contrary sign!
Regards
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I really like this chart !
It suggests that UK Household debt is not the problem that some think it is.
The UK can sustain some falls in house prices, and stay in positive equity.
On the road I live on out of 8 houses 6 are debt free ok we are all getting on a little bit most have lived here 20years plus, nobody cares about house prices it only matters if you want to move!
With the tax now put on houses above 250 and 500k why move and risk many k and maybe not like it!
New build are booming a friend started a build of 48 detached houses with a group of ten social houses he built the social houses first and had sold them to a housing trust before the foundations were finished, he then built the next in lots of 6 at a time as he sold six he built six more, I told him I thought he was nuts 2yrs ago just before he put the first spade in the ground, he is on his last six now with three pre sold !
It was his first build of this size and he is currently trying to buy two more sites!
The sooner people realize the state will do anything ie ultra low interest rates to keep the banks and borrowers happy
and will continue to shaft savers and the retired frugal people the better!
I just wish we had all followed Cantona and withdrawn savings until rates went up!
Another Guy I know is 40-50K a year better off in reduced payments on his btl loans than he was 2007 as rates fell on his borrowings he is virtually full and getting higher rents!
You have to hand it to the BOE they have played a blinder over the lst few years in looking after borrowers!
Remember borrowers on loan books equal bankers profits as long as the assets retain value!
Next we will get 50 year property loans!
Regards
ML
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from my journal thread:
This indicator has provided an excellent entry point for long gold trades over the last 3 years, and further back too. The indicator currently says "BUY LIKE A M**F***".
Image?
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Decline in UK house price eases in February - RICS
LONDON (Reuters) - British house prices fell at their slowest pace since July 2010 last month, and surveyors expect prices to stabilise in the coming months as the economic outlook brightens, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday. The value of British houses fell sharply at the start of the financial crisis and has been generally stagnant since then, with transaction volumes about half that before the crisis due to a lack of mortgage finance and uncertainty over jobs.
...
/more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/decline-uk-house-price-eases-february-rics-034238038.html
Surveyors' expectations for house prices over the coming three months jumped to zero from -14, the highest reading since May 2010.
This is partly due to first-time buyers seeking to take advantage of a tax break on home purchases before it expires on March 24, but surveyors also said much of the rise in sentiment was more durable, their professional body said
My counter trend indicator says this could be a very good signal for price drops until 2014!
Although I posted on here a few months ago my Redrow director contact is saying they are booming!
Without a serious interest rate rise I can't see big drops in sterling house prices!
Maybe the only hope is qe,3,4 due to comming liquidity banking crisis, rising inflation as a result leading to a rise in rates to chase rising strong inflation, negative real interest rates therefore to increase as interest rates lag inflation therefore leads to increase in price of gold as inflation hedge, house prices decline due to interest rates rising? Double wammy on price of houses in gold
What are the barret shares indicating DB.
Regards
ML
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David Morgan on FSN: It took Sprott 10M oz physical silver to move the price $2 up. It took 220M oz paper silver the other day to move it $3 down.
Think!
This must be the post of the week!
What a quality piece of info that is!
Regards
ML
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Would you care to expand and share with us what you were told all those years ago. As you say all the little things do add up. A womans intuition is something not to be dismissed.
If I had to have a litle punt at what it is ............................Yellowstone!!!!?
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This could hit the share prices of those miners.
And may get some to leave the country
Yep that physical gold locked in a big vault looks good now, as the world goes down the route of money printing more taxes and mines will be raised and grabbed !!!!!!!
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Yes, that Dr Bubb is still asking the same question is due perhaps to a habit of lumping gold in with assets and commodities rather than seeing it as a from of liquidity. The decoupling between commodities and gold is perfectly sensible when you consider gold appreciating against commodities.. or from the other angle, commodities depreciating against gold. It's this idea of appreciation/ depreciation that people have to .... appreciate. Because then you are getting beyond counting and dividing units of money [the essence of money illusion] and thinking instead about what happens to the unit itself. If the unit appreciates, it's best to exit investments and sit in units.
Yep or visually you could think of Sinclairs Angel on Gold price, as liquidity (fresh money printing or excess already printed money) is looking for a home does it go into a dodgy low yield Spanish bond or Gold for example. Gold will be the highest gainer in either a hyperinflationary Faber style meltdown, or in a deflationary stagflationary asset price crash.
As a result of this more people in wealth creating economies India China and co, will pile into gold we are still at the very early stages of a very long road?
Regards
ML
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I think there may be some incoherency here. But I see you mention Exter's pyramid a couple of times. If you focus on the pyramid and understand what it means for fiat/ conventional currencies, and on a global stage, then you might find some coherency.
First, Exter's pyramid needs to be 'internationalized' and applied to the global economy. 'Fiat' currencies themselves need to occupy a tier somewhere on that pyramid. I've found it useful to divide currencies into peripheral, commodity, and central/ reserve currnecies. As forms of liquidity they will come lower down on the pyramid closer to gold and further from assets in the higher tiers. So you could have gold at the bottom, with the US dollar [and perhaps Yen] above that, then perhaps commodity currencies above that. Peripheral currencies would be further up near the tier of assets. Remember that due to deflationary pressure monetary value is filtering down from the upper tiers through the middle tiers to the tiers at the bottom. Though the market may move opposite to this at times [the risk on trade] the fundamental movement is down.
The crucial point to grasp now is the relativity of value. Assets will depreciate in terms of currency... even as currencies depreciate in terms of more central currencies, or gold. In this relative scheme, a currency could both appreciate and depreciate. It depends on what you are relating it to; if to assets then currency appreciates, if to gold then currency depreciates. Everything depreciates/ deflates relative to gold. What does not happen in this scenario, is the complete erosion of the value of 'fiat'. It does not hyper-inflate, but instead actually strengthens against assets. As for 'money printing', it may soften the effects of a debt deflation, but can not over-come and reverse the process.
Hope that helps.
Yep I am hard to follow sometimes!!
However,
RH
""The crucial point to grasp now is the relativity of value. Assets will depreciate in terms of currency... even as currencies depreciate in terms of more central currencies, or gold. In this relative scheme, a currency could both appreciate and depreciate. It depends on what you are relating it to; if to assets then currency appreciates, if to gold then currency depreciates. Everything depreciates/ deflates relative to gold. What does not happen in this scenario, is the complete erosion of the value of 'fiat'. It does not hyper-inflate, but instead actually strengthens against assets. As for 'money printing', it may soften the effects of a debt deflation, but can not over-come and reverse the process.""
Is what I consider to be scenario 1 in a nutshell and the path we are most likely to follow and continue down! Thanks for transforming the incoherant to the coherant
Scenario 2 Is what Marc Faber is advocating will happen !
Lets hope we follow 1
Regards
ML
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Gold could fall below $1500 according to Marc Faber
""Marc Faber: The big rally into Sept. 6, 2011, took the Gold Price to $1,922/ounce (oz) and then it dropped until the end of the year, touching $1,522/oz on Dec. 29. It has rallied, and is now above $1,700 again, but I don't think the correction is entirely over. Corrections of 40% are nothing unusual in a bull market.
As an adviser, my duty is to always inform people of investment risk. I'm not saying I expect gold to collapse, but telling people the Gold Price will go up leads them to leverage up and speculate. If the Gold Price drops $50/oz, they're wiped out. All I'm saying is that, in my opinion, the Gold Price correction is not yet entirely completed. I see significant support around the $1,500/oz level, but it could drop lower. It depends on global liquidity and on money printing by central banks. We could have a big correction if global liquidity tightens or they stop printing money.
TGR: Over what timeframe are you looking at the correction?
Marc Faber: This year the Gold Price may not exceed the $1,922/oz high that we reached on Sept. 6. Maybe it will. I'm not a prophet. I'm just telling people that I'm Buying Gold and holding it. I don't speculate in gold. If you Buy Gold, you better understand that the price could always move to the downside. If you don't understand that, don't invest in gold—or in anything.""
Regards
ML
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Hi RH,
I Posted you a question on 02 March 2012 - 09:49 AM on the gold thread giving two senarios of how I see things playing out for gold and FIAT cash?
Could you reply on the gold thread as to how you see it playing out for either scenario or which you see as most likely ?
Or if you think they are both boll&&ks please say so !!!!
Regards
ML
Post #28783
ps your mail inbox is full
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oh I know which country makes Carlsberg !
Carlsberg have run adverts some years ago in the Uk with the implied reasoning that they make or would make the best of everything if they made it!!!!!
The word If was used !
Perhaps your German sense of humour didn't get the gist of the compliment!
Regards
ML
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Yeah, I had heard JP dropped a ship load I think to test the market who knows ?
Could be somebody like the flipper testing the market out!
http://www.trading-naked.com/library/paul-rotter-trader-monthly.pdf
I must say at the moment I see 1500 tested on the cards ?
Regards
Ml
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I posted on here a few weeks ago, a director from Redrow saying to me they where on fire and doing very well!!
Do you think BDEV will fill the gap DB?
Regards
ML
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FWIW I think there is massive support at $1500 to $1600, and that would align with the large H and S forming on the charts. One thing that did surprise me about this recent price drop was that equities did not drop atall in comparison. From my past experience they have been correlated at the inflexion points.
I would have thought the stock markets would have dropped in lockstep if loss of further prospects for loosening policy was the trigger.
Chinese aren't holding as high a percentage of $bonds as previously, could trigger raising of $ interest rates by Us which could be bad for gld?
Could of been reason for gld isolated drop ?
Regards
ML
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That's the residue of physical gold that I have ... but (burglars please note) I don't keep it at home. So it's real profit, and I'm only gradually easing out of it -- broadly speaking by selling half every time it doubles in value (though the process is a bit more complex than that, because it doesn't double very often, and won't keep doing so for ever.)
Yep it wont keep doubling. However as long as your new exit strat works for you then that is great. I keep mine in a bank vault far away from here same reason as you costs very little.
When the time is up for gold ie the system has gone bust and I am out of most of my holdings, I plan to keep to keep a yearly float of 10% of my whatever wealth I hold for that year as long as I can see.
Do you think you will hold onto a percentage of yours for long term insurance?
Or do you envisage being totally out of PMS at some point?
Regards
Ml
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Thanks for this. I know very little about economics, but have always admired Bernard Baruch, the "park-bench statesman". He used to say "I made my money by selling too soon". That's been my approach, and after taking a deep breath and borrowing a lot of money to buy gold a few years ago, I've been selling it too soon for quite a while now, and have paid back my debts and still have about £50,000-worth (more than all my assets before I started). It's been by a long chalk the best financial decision of my life, and I'm very grateful to these boards -- not least you and your antagonist the quasi-hoarder Goldfinger.
Top man we need a few more honest good to hear stories like that!
Are you still holding the 50k in gold or have you cashed out into Fiat?
Regards
ML
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The only undeniable gold-price statistic that I've noticed is the correlation between downward movements in the price of gold on the one hand, and the grumpiness of this thread on the other. The price has just suffered its biggest ever drop that I can remember ... and I've never known this thread to be tetchier, with nervous gold-holders being quite rude to Dr B.
I'm reminded of the observation of Dr Johnson in Edinburgh, hearing two women arguing across the street, from the upper storey of one house to another: "They'll never agree, because they're arguing from different premises".
Of course Dr B is right, that you can make more money trading than holding gold, if you get the timing right: that's just a mathematical certainty. But it takes time and skill -- and most of us haven't got much of either. And of course he's right, that those who only predict rises in the gold price are in danger of doing a disservice to their readers: we need to know (in good time!) when to sell ... and no-one's telling us that. Will they still be saying "hold", or even "buy" at and beyond the eventual peak?
It seems to me that "buy & hold" is only half a strategy. For what purpose, and for how long, should I hold it? (I expect to be dead in the next thirty or forty years.) I'd like to hear more about exit strategies and timing: neither traders like Dr B nor hoarders lke GF give me quite what I need. When they dissatisfy me good-naturedly it's one thing ... but when this thread is both unhelpful and bad-tempered, I can do without it.
How you can call GF a hoarder is beyond me!!!!!!!!!
He has repeatedly said when he views the time is right he will swap gold for other assets!
Just because someone trades longer timeframe than 5 min bars, don't mean they are not trading !
That is what some forget on here.
The only people getting grumpy as I can see are weak leveraged hands. Not strong buy and hold !!
But I do agree lets talk strategy !!!!!!!!!
:lol: 
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
1560/40 looking very likely, if that does not hold could be a long rocky ride !!!!!!!!!!!!
Regards
ML