Manual labourer
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Posts posted by Manual labourer
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Some did, obviously. I cannot tell you any tales of that.
But I did read that one sort of "tangible asset" did not fare too well: Property.
Landlords had huge trouble raising rents, and even those who could had to worry about tenants (and non-tenants) doing things like stealing the copper pipes within their flats, and others removing doorknobs and other brass fixtures.
Leveraged Landlords (on fixed rate interrest period loans)most are on 5yr terms why else do you think the CB banks are holding back the crash, most sheeple on 2/3/5 year fixed rates are coming off higher fixed rates onto lower variable rates,the property owners who have the sense to refix now on 5/10year rates will do very very well!!
As debts are hyperinflated away from the end of 2012, most b2let people will have remortgaged since 2007!
That will be the time the CB raise rates and fry people Hyperinflation will set in debts will be devalued we all start again!!
re copper etc being pinched that has always happened!
In the news today a hospital has had to close because some 2hat HAS STOLEN THE COPPER FEED WIRES TO THE BACK UP GENNY!!!!!!!!!
Regards
ML
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Yeah, I get the idea of an "Insurance Fund".
But I think many Gold Bigs are ASKING TOO MUCH OF GOLD -
There are some Big Risks that Gold does not hedge.
I had this conversation with Dominic not many days ago. He was concerned that I did not hold enough Gold, to get me through the Hard Times that are ahead. And I wondered what is the right amount: 3 months, 12 months, 10 years of expenditures?
I think that Caitlin Harris put it well on her FS interview: Some people imagine that they will be able to take their Gold and go somewhere and buy groceries when need them.
She said: "Well, you might be able to do that once."
JP said, "Why, because the shelves would be empty after that?"
Her answer may have surprised him: "No. Because someone may see you at the store using your Gold and then follow you home to take the Gold you are saving."
I think the BIGGEST RISK in a very hard times may be : WHERE YOU LIVE.
And then after that: Who are your neighbors and how well off are they. If they are all starving and hungry, then holding vast amounts of gold may simply INCREASE the risk to your personal safety and to that of your neighbors.
Yep or you buy the LOCAL farm with it!
Did everybody who was wise enough to hold gold in Weimar era get robbed?
Regards
ML
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This and the video posted by Errol are certainly both very interesting, I can't remember a time when the fundamentals for a commodity look so incredibly bullish and the technicals so bearish. I wonder if this kind of ultra-low call for silver shows that we are near the end of the eight month silver bear, in a similar way to the large number of articles in spring this year calling for 100 dollar silver hinted at the end of the bull market. Although the technicals on the daily and weekly charts do look terrible, I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days. For the meantime, I am happy to trade this beautiful range between 31 and 33 dollars. Long may that continue.
"I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days"
I looked at this senario and came away with a slightly different view!
Comex and dealers get "cleaned" out on price rallies !!
Which is exactly what has happened, now reverse this comex and dealers will be loaded up on large "very large fast moves to the downside" ie the exchange back from the weak shorter time frame hands or leveraged speculators ?
WEAK HANDS only want to hold a rising value priced item in a short term view, now we are 30% down from highs when a large amount was bought from comex dealers etc who were speculating on $100 silver by this year end!!!. If we go back to $22.5-25 area a 50% retracement from the top,then a large amount of buyers of the recent high may throw the towel in, at which point $11-16.00 would be do able due to the high volatility of silver!
Gold would be back around $1250 and oil $70-80 as the world starts to deflate, prior to real printing and then true hyper inflation!
Regards
ML
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I posted a few weeks ago Gold COULD GET BACK DOWN TO 12OO area, think of it as a buying chance.
If everybody was buying gold I would be worried they are not. See link above.
Take the chance to buy more at lower prices! The Sales wont last for ever.
Regards
ML
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Chinese could soon cut interest rates to even further below inflation rate!
I wonder where the people will put the 40% of their income that they save then?
Regards
ML
"Rates are already below inflation levels, so a cut could encourage savers to pull money out of the banking system in search of higher returns elsewhere and so crimp bank lending."
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Waahh, a MAJOR Ker contra-indicator buy signal!!!!
Beep-beep-beep --- backing up the truck!
EDIT: BTW, how can he still have any capital left?
EDIT2: Ker is usually so wrong, it might be worth taking on a highly levered bet against him.
I think his nickname should be Wan!
Regards
ML
* I forecast sometime ago on here 1150/1220 area was a slight possibilty off the monthly chart as a strong buying area, however due to the dangerous times we live in I wouldn't sell any allocated physical and gamble on the fall,if we do revisit that area then it would be a back the truck up with remaining available funds, strap yourself in and ride the market to 2450 area!
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Yes, I am still very heavily into silver. In terms of value, my gold and silver bullion positions are never too far from each other (but look at the G:S-ratio to see how much this changes over time). For me silver is a means of diversification. Because of the industrial consumption of the past, I do expect it to outperform gold, and there won't be screaming gold prices without screaming silver prices. If gold gets re-introduced as THE anchor of the monetary system, silver might trade more freely and will certainly not be in the focus of central bankster greed. I don't think Western central banks hold any relevant amounts of silver. Silver is the better day-to-day money. This is the role it has always had (until 40-something years ago). I think silver will always be lagging gold in its moves, but I am very patient.
Thanks GF, for the clear honest answer with background reasoning!
I think I need to start buying a little more silver as it dips !
I totally agree with your later posts of how these prices will look like a steal over the longer term.
Regards
ML
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I really recommend everyone to read this. There are some amazing (private) stories in it too.
Thanks for posting the very good article GF. The author gives great detail as to why and where he sees gold going and very little on Silver.
You in the past have been very open in your view that silver has more upside potential and your holdings were heavy into silver (Silver finger)
How have things progressed are you still more pecentage based invested in silver raher than gold, do you still see more upside to silver than gold?
Or as he shh**t is starting to hit the fan do you see gold outperfoming everything?
Do central banks hold silver reserves?
Regards
ML
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Xmas pressie? Hmm, we'll see.
The bearish sentiment is incredible given how it's all lined up perfectly for gold. Even on this board here (in parts).
People are hoping the train is going to back up to the station they were left behind at?
Regards
ML
Maybe Paulson is making noises intended on moving the market to get a better price to get back in ?
If you look at a long term chart there has to be a pull back at some point?
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Monthly chart on gold could indicate $1220 buy area before fresh upmove?
I personally wouldn't sell any physical held to trade down to this price as world markets are to volatile not to be holding gold.
However should you have any powder left to buy and price hits 1220 buy around April next year then I would get in?
Regards
ML.
Maybe Paulson read the above!
:lol: Or maybe not
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It's lengthy but well written and explains nearly everything you need to know.
Oxford Economics's - "The impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold"
Hi WP,
cheers for the Sunday read.
Regards
ML
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Hi Pix, Bubb,
If someone could move my post from ysterday and your replies to another topic I would be more than happy to reply, as it is I don't tink we should carry on this debate re taxation /trading time on a GOLD thread which is as good a gold thread as you will get on the tinternet!
Regards
ML
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I think there should be a system in place that means that the shorter time a trade is held for the higher level of tax is paid and the longer one is held the less is paid. To deter high frequency trading and encourage long term investment, which after all is what investment capital is supposed to be about. The trouble is the big banks are now so powerful that it is unlikely to happen, they now control the politicians via funding and lobbyists. It should be the same for everyone personal or mega bank. I think the tax could range from very high for very short term (90%) down to zero for very long term investments (0%).
A system similar to the old taper relief that used to be in action on Capital gains tax in the UK could be used.
Hi Pix,
there is way to much control and taxation in there for me. It should be left as it is the idea of taxing people like DB because they can survive and prosper in a cut throat world at the sharpest edge of self employment is totally wrong!
I agree with the earlier post that hedge funds survive prosper and or fail on their performance so good luck to them.What gauls me is our goverments backing the debts of large banks with tax payer money in a futile atempt to prevent the inevitable,I don't get that bit?
Re Trading v investing debate, successfull short term traders are a rarity and should be valued,DB Imvho hasn't grasped the fact that he is such a rarity a by encouraging people to speculate via T/A he is taking people down a very dangerous route, on the basis a little knwoledge can be a very dangerous thing, and that by trading in and out at the wrong times some people on here could actually lose money in this potentially once in a life time metal bull run. From what I have read and understood Gold is the place to be over the coming years a a haven of safety?
Without doubt he is right in th fact that he has the ability to trade in and out at the right moments and therefore out perform buy and hold, however he is the exception to the rule!
Buy and hold as advocated by a few stars on here via fundamentals who back up their reasoning with historic ratios etc. are a much safer option to follow over the long term, for the great majority on here, and we should be very thankfull you and they do.
However having said that it is very good to have the medium of sites like this where we can consider the merits and dangers of both, and DB takes the time to post some of his short term trades I guess we are all adults so can choose which route to take.
Regards
ML
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The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today.
I am backing up the truck here, friends.
Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today.
(And I am not done.)
Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades.
I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA.
Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/
(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !
You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)
Hi Doc,
I still think we will see 1150-1220 area first before $10.000 area or $2200 area.
Could you explain why you think it is time to back up the truck,on what reasoning do you make that call?
Regards
ML.
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Monthly chart on gold could indicate $1220 buy area before fresh upmove?
I personally wouldn't sell any physical held to trade down to this price as world markets are to volatile not to be holding gold.
However should you have any powder left to buy and price hits 1220 buy around April next year then I would get in?
Regards
ML.
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Welcome GF
Can I start off the discussion by asking you whether you have any other predictions for the price of gold.
IMO the best two so far that I have read are from Jim Sinclair and Krassimir Petrov.
Both of which I put on this chart:
I thought this morning, it would be nice to add more predictions to it, and see how they all compare.
I might skip the Goldman Sachs one of a falling gold price
Steve
I think we are still on target!!!
Regards
ML.
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Your Joking,i am still buying at am or pm fix on sovereigns,its like everything you need to know where to go and its all about who you know.Hockley Birmingham the UK's largest gold centre BY FAR has several dealers who are working on 1-1.5-2% above am or pm fix.ANYBODY BUYING FROM ATS, CHARD's or BAIRD's have not done their homework.Probably a few years ago now, on this thread i told people were to go to get metal at fix or just over.The Market is FEROCIOUSLY competitive.
I managed to acquire some physical metal today from my PREFERED supplier but no where near enough to complete my order.
Cheers Fk, for the pointer, to be fair my very modest amount of Gold is in an allocated account, due to that’s where I think it is safest. However I did buy a couple of sovs to hold in hand from Bairds sometime back ,.
I guess that’s why we come on here to learn from each other, and is probably why Baird are one of the few left with any stock!!
By the way I am with you re the paper and its worth!
Regards
ML
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That could also be due to their greedy spreads. They offer a very low price to buy back so why would you want to sell to them? They are not the cheapest either when buying. Sandra is nice but they also have a right dipstick working there....Im going to ring them... OK kilo of gold £34,500 £32,500 to buy from the dipstick himself...
CID £33,825 to buy £33,240.
There is definitely a real business opportunity to set up in competition against the uk dealers,Bairds for example, they were operating the same buy to sell spread percentage wise when gold was a third to half its current value i.e. 8% on gold at £400.oo an oz profit a few years ago v profit at 8% when gold is £1050.00 an ounce same deal but with over twice as much profit for the dealer!
I wonder how long it will be before physical price is at premium to spot/futures/options/paper gold?
That’s the real question when people realize fiat paper cash is worth very little as is a paper IOU GOLD?
Regards
ML
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Gold in Sterling £976
Pandas are now £996, Brittanias are £986 in CID
Whats betting we see £1000 gold by weekend?
That would be very nice to see!
Yes very true. I dont tend to look at the buy price as I am over invested and dont plan to make any more purchases for now
That must be a cool place to be in !
I have been holding back waiting for £27.50 in Silver and $1350 in gold to make my last purchase with available free capital!
The saying "picking up pennies in front of steam rollers" , keeps coming to mind
Regards
ML
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You will be able to show me you can think for yourself when you dont copy out wiki QE and tell me it
is your understanding.
However i cant see a problem about you wanting to get insurance if you are forcasting inflation
providing you can survive massive sells off in Lehman type events. The point i was making was that
a huge correction in Gold is quite possible. Part of the reason for that huge correction is that
most people are not correctly understanding the nature of QE - including the amateur enthusiasts
who are determined to edit Wiki.
Hi ALK,
Please refer to the first line of my reply
“Please don’t be offended by the way I have scripted the reply!”
That was in direct reference to the Wiki quote!
I put that in because of you previous history of being a fragile little soul!
How I see it exactly, is that you frequently post in riddles. You regularly post when you have no strength in your points that you are trying to make. Then when your views are questioned or challenged by anybody on here, you don’t debate with people and exchange ideas in a friendly grown up manor, no you take things down to a personal level and become nasty and twisted!
I am happy to continue to discuss these points with you as long as you grow up and take the personal slurs and slanders out of the debate, however if you wish to continue to act like a weak child then I suggest you Pm me and we continue the personal side in private.
Now returning to the one valid point in your last post re correction of price:-
“The point i was making was that a huge correction in Gold is quite possible”
There is nothing new about that see my post from weeks ago!
Posted 11 June 2011 - 05:09 PM Post #26728
“However the powers that be are frightened by what is panning out, there isn't enough gold for everyone so gold will rocket, but not until 1650 is taken out then probably a strong pullback to 1000 dollar area, hard to believe but the same could of been said about silver on its way to 50 THEN BACK DOWN TO low thirty's.”
ML
I have never made any claim to be anything other than an amateur Joe public on here, who has a willingness to learn from of the brighter minds on here.(The clue is in the miss spelt name!)
You have again gone off at a tangent to your original post because you couldn’t explain or substantiate anything as usual!
Your reply shows-
What a sad nasty weak little man you are!
Regards
ML
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You need to grasp that if a very highly liquid easy to sell asset is removed from the economy it is deflationary. The fact you are talking about infinite amounts of QE3 fiat money says fairly loudly you do not understand the implications of removing financial assets from the economy and issuing another financial asset in its place.
Generally speaking most holders of gold are going to assume the world does not end and continues in some form that is not massively different to the way things have been in the last few hundred years. If steel is at rock bottom prices and Gold is still at todays prices people are going to feel gold is over valued.
I would assume deflation in the past was happening at a time of a gold standard. In deflation you have to pay down your debts or you are busted to hell by falling income. Under a gold standard and deflation, gold is the asset most sought after to pay down your debts. If the government was printing the claim notes for gold there would not be deflation so these claim notes and gold are rising in price relative to steel because both are equally sought
after. Today in deflation people would be seeking fiat money or
government bonds which are more or less the same thing.
To totally avoid deflation the government will have to buy steel to prevent the price falling or
forget about debt levels and just spend spend spend. Currently it is not working out that way. But it might eventually.
Anyway come the next lehmans, the banking system, which is levered to hell, will need to sell
something to survive.
Hi ALK,
Please don’t be offended by the way I have scripted the reply!
"You need to grasp that if a very highly liquid easy to sell asset is removed from the economy it is deflationary. The fact you are talking about infinite amounts of QE3 fiat money says fairly loudly you do not understand the implications of removing financial assets from the economy and issuing another financial asset in its place. "
Ok QE,
My understanding :- Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by some central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank implements quantitative easing by purchasing financial assets from banks and other private sector businesses with new money that it creates electronically. This action increases the excess reserves of the banks, and also raises the prices of the financial assets bought, which lowers their yield. In Japan the Bank of Japan targeted the quantity of reserves held by the banks, while in the United States the Federal Reserve has emphasized that their quantitative easing policy is targeting a credit easing in the business and household sector, so that the increase in reserves is a by-product rather than an objective of monetary policy. Quantitative easing can be used to help ensure inflation does not fall below target.
Printy PRINTY ? Creates inflation? Best hedge for Inflation?PM?
"Generally speaking most holders of gold are going to assume the world does not end and continues in some form that is not massively different to the way things have been in the last few hundred years. If steel is at rock bottom prices and Gold is still at todays prices people are going to feel gold is over valued. "
G/F and many more on here have stated they are not Gold BUGS. They hold gold and various other PM,s to protect themselves from printy printy inflation geared in by Central Banks, and as you say when the time is right and the Gold IS OVER VALUED they will exchange it for something else which in their opinion is undervalued agreed?
"I would assume deflation in the past was happening at a time of a gold standard. In deflation you have to pay down your debts or you are busted to hell by falling income. Under a gold standard and deflation, gold is the asset most sought after to pay down your debts. If the government was printing the claim notes for gold there would not be deflation so these claim notes and gold are rising in price relative to steel because both are equally sought after. Today in deflation people would be seeking fiat money or government bonds which are more or less the same thing."
Why would people want Printy Printy Fiat cash for other than everyday needs or paper IOU'S from potentially bankrupt governments?
"To totally avoid deflation the government will have to buy steel to prevent the price falling or forget about debt levels and just spend spend spend. Currently it is not working out that way. But it might eventually.Anyway come the next lehmans, the banking system, which is levered to hell, will need to sell something to survive."
How much physical gold did Lehman’s hold when they went under? Come the next Lehman’s or bigger nobody repeat nobody will want to sell their physical gold until the dust from sequential crashes settles agreed?
Why exactly is now not a good time to accrue a holding of PM'S as a form of insurance against more and more QE, and the possible high inflation or hyper inflation leading to the collapse of the fiat paper system?
Regards
ML
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I don't think it was - though close it was £1 off the previous high.
Neither has gold in $ touched its 150 day ma, which has been a reliable place for a new leg up to start since the start of the gold bull.
Sorry about that,
The spot prices I was looking at had a previous high of of GBP 963.50, with the high on Friday of GBP 964.74.
MA and TA, are something I am doing further research into at the Moment, so cheers for the tip!
Regards
ML
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On the other hand many gold buyers on dips must have built up a perception that Gold must always go up. A
correction coupled with fundamentals like reduced demand for copper steel and so forth would destroy
anybody exposed to leverage. For example the idea Gold would rise in deflation seems flawed, and for
evidence of that you only have to look at the prices for Gold and silver when Lehmans collapsed.
Given faith and belief in their trades, and faith in their intellectual ideas, people would be reluctant to stand back and cover losses until they were totally busted and would meanwhile be buying more on the dips. In a significant correction one by one they will fold and overwhelm those thinking they can hold on.
If bond yields for italian debt are up to 10% in the near future we are going to see more lehmans and who knows what else. The reason for holding gold is often to prepare for bad times where gold just becomes just another thing people have to sell to pay their bills. If the shit starts hitting the fan many of those CDS issuers who have gold will sell the gold. Who actually is going to be buying?
The other thing about Gold is that many people seem unable to comprehend the nature of a significant amount of the QE, where wealth has been removed from the economy and replaced with wealth for very little extra juice. Meanwhile most of us including me had seen this 'money printing' as likely to significantly increase prices and we have acted accordingly. All we might have is faith and intellectual constructions, where already i am seeing the whole QE thing very differently.
Hi ALK,
Could you explain in layman’s terms why anybody would swop the finite amount of gold for infinite amounts of printed QE 3 fiat money?
Why would people on mass sell their physical insurance Gold?
Re deflation Rees-Mogg in a piece in the times the other week stated Gold historically does very well in deflationary periods, so if QE3/4/5 failed to inflate, and remarkably deflation set in after numerous QE events what would you secure your investments in rather than Gold?
Regards
ML
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Was that a new GBP high in gold today?
Is that not worth a rocket ?
Regards
ML
:lol: 
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
I sure if I visited Paris, that there are loads of 17th 18th century beautiful buildings around the place! So the other Scottish genius John Law hyperinflated France but the buildings survived and people moved on and later prospered!
I don't buy into this Mad MAX SYSTEM COLLAPSE BS, other than a huge multi continent natural disaster or a world wide Nuclear war!
Here in the UK and the rest of the western world we are heading into a short lived nasty period of deflation/high unemployment where the Dollar/Gold will be king, followed by an even worse period of printed hyper inflation when Gold will be the sole king!
Regards
ML