neil324

Shocking GDP print given the amount of QE and rates on the floor. Construction taking the brunt I see. I guess we will see plenty more QE and maybe a rate cut to boot.

I wonder if they have thought about a mass house building program. I guess they are worried about asset values.

Still I suppose it's price worth paying, as long as it's not yourself paying. Did I see a post on here about morality

The HaliWide index is very interesting, caught my attention straight away. Is it a fake out or not.

What I am seeing is mayor support and demand at these levels suggesting to me at the very least a floor or bottom is in around me. London well where to begin except I don't really see any triggers only public debt getting external attention.

I wouldn't be surprised seeing rising prices from here.

hmm, not working for me.

Thanks anyway.

They seem to have done exactly that so far

Yes doing a lovely job.

While it looks like the problem in Europe has been postponed for a while (again), if the EU does implode then there would be a flight to relative "safety". US usually, but if they follow the foreign money that has been flowing into London property, then it would actually bring yields down in the UK.

 

Besides, UK has mostly very long dated debt, so it wouldn't be forced to borrow during any "panic" period, and if they did need to sell bonds during this time, they would get our nationalised banks to buy them as they did recently (QE through the back door).

 

Also, they could always directly turn on the printing presses again.

 

You can't beat the system.

They control the bond markets, through the ability to print, yes.

But they don't control the currency markets.

'You can't buck the markets'

Admin, i think someone has hacked John's account.

My youngest son has a new girlfriend - I was chatting to her parents the other day - and, as it does, the subject of houses and house prices came up (I think I might have started it asking them how long they have lived there - just making conversation) and for some reason they volunteered the fact they have a 315k mortgage!

 

Now, they are in their early 40s whereas I will be 60 next year ... but a 315k mortgage - at historically low interest rates - in a pretty stagnant economy ... wow, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. I said something like 'wow, that's a big mortgage' and they sort of collectively shrugged their shoulders and said they were desperate to bring their kids up in a nice area.

 

I mention this as an aside ... it seems an awful lot of people have mega mortgages and the much trumpeted rises in interest rates really will hurt a lot of people - and leave them with even less disposable income - or on the street.

 

And the people who got us into this mess got off scott free.

Give him a copy of this,

http://www.tullettprebon.com/announcements/strategyinsights/notes/2010/SIN20110526.pdf

NSA:

 

Headlines May 11 Apr 11

Monthly Index* 330.4 329.5

Monthly Change* 0.3% -0.2%

Annual Change -1.2% -1.3%

Average Price £167,208 £165,609

My mistake, been reading HPC pulling their hair out.

Land reg & Halifax next week should be interesting.

http://www.nationwid...al/May_2011.pdf

 

Nationwide index up 0.3% for May and up 0.6% 3 monthly.

 

I think the May figure is seasonally adjusted but can't find the NSA. All on very low volume

+ 0.98% i think.

http://ftalphaville....y-deep-trouble/

I was wondering if the article was somewhat exaggerating maybe, no mention of real or nominal though.

Indeed, it's hard disagree with Morgan who reckons the likelihood of mortgage borrowing increasing materially is close to zero until property prices return to a reasonable level, which he puts at 22 per cent below their 2010 average.

The UK is fubar 100%, house prices will be of minimal concern.

So the NSA was up 0.31%, doesn't the figure come in about 4% in a normal market this time of year that's why we get SA. How does it compare to 08/09 for the same month.

Neil, by 'leaders' you mean the shadow bankers, rather than elected 'govts'?

I mean't the elected government. They knew exactly what was going on at the time, not saying the new lot are any different.

On the whole, yes. If I can't offer him a reasonable chance at life in this country (i.e. I don't really have the money to say to him 'here's a load of cash to get you started - well I do, but that leaves me potless in retirement - if I ever get to retire) ... and this country can't offer him a reasonable opportunity to get a job, buy a house, have a family, live a normal life etc. then, yes, I encourage him to go.

 

Much as I like the idea of one day playing 'Grandad' - with my sons and (in due course) their families near me - I know that this seems to be too much to ask. My wife hates the idea that our sons may have to move abroad and is finding out what the entry requirements are for old farts to Aus, NZ and Canada. I'd quite happily follow them but, in a way, it's a bit daft. They might move to Canada - settle down - and then get a job offer in Singapore or, even, the UK!

 

Who knows what will happen. All I know is that the bloody bankers have a lot to answer for. And I'd quite happily be the one asking the questions.

Well it's the country and governments job to offer the chance of a reasonable life. To many fundamentals going forward are bad for the UK, i'm struggling to think of any positives? I mean you touch on your own retirement but what type of retirement do you think your sons will have in the UK.

The leaders are as much to blame as the bankers. Even more so because they are the ones in control.

I'd fund them to do a 1 year working visa,easy to get when below 30, you never know they might love it and stay and if not at least they gain life experience.

But nothing much seems to change here.

 

I see the Daily Express has the usual 'House prices to go up 10% this year' headline reported by, yes, you guessed, Assetz 'let's destroy the prospects of the next generation' Property Management (or whatever they are called).

 

It's enough to make you weep - and every time my eldest son sees such a headline, it makes him more determined to emigrate.

Do you encourage him to emigrate?

Trouble is - in 'rough number' terms - house prices doubled, transaction numbers halved - agents now are making the same money as they did 5 to 10 years ago (depending which part of the country one is considering) for half the work. No wonder, now there has been a shake out, they are not bleating much.

Birmingham agents still use a fee based system below a certain amount, at a guess £200k. Which depending on the postcode is the bulk of their work.

I heard someone the other day telling me it was a good time to buy

I've known people who have bought a house in under a day

and the lack of scrutiny shown in the UK Ireland Spain Us etc etc

doesnt seem to have been that great in the past

as long as the Daily Express and Co are spinning property in a positive light

then there will be gullible people who will be taken advantage of

The church of Brick n Mortar has some very devoted believers

the predicted collapse didnt happen ,we know why and we know it will in time

but right now spinning a house prices stable story isnt difficult

Ive no doubt if the banks starting lending like they did before there would be a stampede to buy. The trouble is though they are not and anyone who wants to chuck their hard earned away, who is in a position to, kudos to them.

The price being paid now is more likely to be scrutinised more closely, hence the low volume.

If the EA's are happy with this volume, well good luck to them.

putting property on at an overvalued price then dropping the price

to a point where it is still overvalued may trap the gullible into

thinking they are getting a bargain

customer is happy and agent achieves a higher commission than marking the price low from the start

Putting a sale sign in a shoe shop window catches my wife every time

Trouble is though your not scrutinizing when buying shoes.

What difference does £10-20 in a buy price make if the gold is for insurance in the event of total collapse and reintroduction of gold as part of a currency system?

Well since you ask it's £2k on every £100k bought. And about £12k if invested in gold and your price projection comes true.

But anyway it's not in my nature to throw money away, never will be either.

Coininvestdirect.com

Great buy back price, but not very competitive buying prices.

Where do you buy your coins from, one here not far from me,

http://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/?gclid=CIeYodGI7Z8CFdkB4wodW27SYg

What about storage, i know banks allow you to use their safe for a small fee, but have heard most banks check what your storing. Also how easy will it be to sell coins, i'd imagine trying to sell 50 Britannias in one go might be difficult when you need to.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/8447555/Workers-under-pressure-as-pay-growth-slows.html

I wonder why there is no reference to the construction industry in the article.

Bankers seem to be doing ok though.

The London market has gone very very quiet especially prime positions since April 2011. Maybe it is a new seasonal trend or is the market now telling us something is afoot.

Stamp duty changes maybe?

Yes, but if your debt is fixed, that's still an erosion of the debt.

 

Minimum wage is going up 2.5%

 

Actual average wage rise ~2.3%

 

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=10

This is about a 50% reduction. All 7n blocks by the way :lol: which means nothing unless you have worked with them, they are twice as heavy.

Library of Birmingham: Marlborough Brickwork Limited

Bricklaying Roles: Job Description

Requirements

• Self employed face work bricklayers

• Fully CSCS carded – applicable bricklayer card, minimum NVQ Level 2 or equivalent

• Majority of work to be undertaken is block work with a mixture of face and standard work, generally the works are internal and we will require skilled operatives who can build to a high standard of work for this prestigious project.

• Suitable candidates will be interviewed

Contract Details

• Hours of work: 07.30 – 16.30 Monday to Thursday. 07.30 – 15.30 Friday. Weekend working is not envisaged at this point in time but may be required at some point by agreement

• The works are set to commence April 2011 and last approx. 1 year with possible continuity available.

• Rates of Pay is by price work rates as detailed below:

Blockwork - 100mm – Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £6.75 m2

Blockwork - 140mm - Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £7.75 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Radius – Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £10.00 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Paint grade – Bucket handle joint to one side £8.25 m2

Blockwork – 140mm Paint grade – Bucket handle joint to both sides £8.50 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork - Flush joint non fair faced finish to both sides £15.00 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork – Bucket handle joint to one side £15.50 m2

Blockwork – 215mm dense blockwork – Bucket handle joint to both sides £15.75 m2

Insulation £0.50 m2

Closing cavities £0.50 m

Frame cramps £0.40 nr

Bed Joint Reinforcement £0.25 lm

Concrete Lintels £3.50 lm

Drill and fix head restraint £0.50 nr

Slotted channel head restraint £0.05 nr

Yes, but if your debt is fixed, that's still an erosion of the debt.

 

Minimum wage is going up 2.5%

Yes but there will be a tipping point on the ability to service the debt.

Hence my reference to the retail figures.

Just one example NMW workers tend to get public transport right, in the West Midlands fares increased by 10% last year.