neil324

I was talking about the mid 80's, Handsworth etc. It was a bit of a mess for a while. I worked in Sheldon for a while and you could practically guarantee witnessing a mugging or a fight once a week from the bus into town, the 159 IIRC, later became the 900. The swan at yardley usually had a good fight going on).

 

Yes, they were at the gym that day as they were going to use it for the Please don’t make me cry" video.

 

Ah Labour of love, what an album!

Handsworth has always been a slum and always will be, but funny enough when HPI was in full force, Handsworth property prices still increased by the same percentage as the rest of Birmingham. Why's that when it's a ghetto? When prices start tanking again falls will start in the shite holes then spread and drag down the nice areas, just like the ghetto's benefited on the way up.

I'm currently living in Great Barr/ Kingstanding border, not sure if you know it. Anyway the Co Op local is getting robbed on a weekly basis, went in there last night they have clear plastic screens put up at the counters now and i joked with the cashier they will be coming in with guns soon. The Tesco local not far away is a similar story, the last time they cut a hole through the floor of the upstairs flat to gain entry.

No jobs for the plebs, they will take what they need,more than likely target the nice areas and who can blame them i certainly can't.

Perhaps some of the guys in Brum should write a song about that.. Oh wait a minute

 

Disclaimer if seen in bad taste. I was one of the one in ten back when the original came out, even met Ali Campbell once at Paddy Lynch’s boxing gym (Errol Christie days). Seemed an OK guy.

 

To be honest, the situation in Brum wasn't much better even between the two recessions. One of the reasons we left the midlands.

I have a lot of respect for UB40, they always stuck around Birmingham and still have a recording studio in Birmingham today. The pub where the video for Red Red Wine was filmed and also 1 in 10 was written is going to auction next month

http://www.pennycuick.co.uk/

I don't think Birmingham suffered any worse than other areas in previous recessions because of the manufacturing base, but that has now gone with an over reliance on public sector which is about to get axed, Birmingham is going to suffer bad this time as the figures are already showing.

You have an amazing knack for interpreting numbers.

 

In February 2010 the average agent had 56 properties on their books.

 

In February 2011 the average agent had 70 properties on their books.

 

And you interpret this as meaning that, during February 2011, each agent took on a new property every day ... and postulate, on the basis of your interpretation, that a bloodbath may be coming. I have to say, it's a very strange interpretation and a stranger postulation.

 

I have seen markets with a 'shortage' of properties where, month in, month out, nothing new comes on the market and, in some cases prices were falling and, in other cases, prices were rising.

 

I have seen markets where there are new properties flooding on to the market - again with rising or falling prices.

 

Determining the direction of house prices is a wee bit more complex than observing the number of properties on the market at any one point in time. In my area, during 2009 there was very little on the market. But properties started selling again and a rash of new properties hit the market. Despite (or maybe because of) the increase in supply, prices moved up recovering their post credit crunch falls.

I got some figures for you, in Birmingham 1 in 4 are inactive, 1 in 10 un-employed, this before the council or government swing the axe which is going to affect Brum particularly bad.

Make no mistake house prices in Birmingham are going to fall, what happens in your area i couldn't give a flying, your children are welcome to it.

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2011/03/15/why-birmingham-is-in-crisis-and-its-future-bleak/

Andrew Adonis, the former education and transport secretary, who now runs an impressive think tank called the Institute for Government is taking a trip to Birmingham tonight – with an uncomfortable message for Britain’s second city.

 

In a speech to businessmen he will describe how Birmingham is now in “crisis”. A version of what he’ll say is behind The Times paywall – but for those who don’t want to pay here are a few extracts from the speech:

 

“Birmingham’s population is still 100,000 down on its peak fifty years ago. The city’s unemployment rate is more than twice the national average. Birmingham also has one of the lowest employment rates in the country, 61 pc against 70 pc nationally.

 

“Birmingham has very low productivity and is excessively dependent on public sector jobs. In Birmingham’s shift from manufacturing to services over the last 35 years, public services have predominated. One in three jobs in the city are now in public services, compared to one in five in financial and business services. Only one in ten jobs are now in manufacturing. Birmingham’s employment is forecast to be 4 pc lower in 2020 than in 2008.

 

“Now the losses in the public sector are starting too. A month ago the city council announced 2,000 job cuts, with many more to come.

 

“Underpinning all this is the most worrying statistic of all. Birmingham almost tops the league of Britain’s low skill cities. More than two in ten of the city’s residents have low skills, compared to just over one in ten nationally.

 

“Given Birmingham’s poor employment and skills base, the deep deprivation which afflicts so much of the city is not hard to explain. Nearly two-thirds of children in the city live in households with low income. Infant mortality – incredibly – is almost twice the national average, worse than in Cuba and on a par with Bulgaria and Chile.”

 

He then goes on to lambast the city’s politicians and civil servants:

 

“Promoting reform to secondary education in the city has been like pulling teeth. I cannot tell you how much agitation, and how many difficult meetings, it took to persuade the City Council – particularly the inward-looking children’s services department – to engage half seriously in the academies programme.

 

“I won’t venture into child protection and children’s social services, where simply providing an adequate service, let alone engaging in transformational change, has proved beyond the city.”

 

He goes on to suggest three solutions: A new directly elected mayor, a high speed rail link and fully engaging in the Government’s academy programme.

 

But is this enough? Having just returned from Sheffield at the weekend (where I used to live) and having also lived in Birmingham two things strike me. The first is that over the last ten years both cities (or at least there centres) have been transformed. No longer are they depressing remnants of former industrial glory. They are exciting, vibrant and modern – with lots of new (and well designed) buildings as well as some stunning renovation work. Labour may not a have fixed the roof while the sun was shining – but they certainly built a nice conservatory.

 

But the second thing is all this was based on the public sector. Growing universities, a well funded NHS – and yes even the smoking cessation advisors helped keep the city growing and supporting private service sector: the nice restaurants and shops were all basically surviving off the state.

 

And now that is all over – and I fear the future for both Birmingham and Sheffield is bleak. In order to get through without a serious economic downturn they need to attract new industries and investment fast: but they do not in the main have highly skilled workers or the infrastructure within local government capable of doing the job.

 

High speed rail might help (in the long term) so might directly elected mayors and of course education is key. But I fear while Adonis is right in his diagnosis of the problems facing Birmingham and other cities – it is far from clear that the drugs will work.

I guess that explains the better margins, as I'm fairly sure the house prices aren't rising.

 

Out of interest, what's the average going rate now (per 1000 or per m^2)?

I'm hearing prices as low as £220 per thousand and £6 m2 of 100mm blockwork. The north being the worst prices. Hearing many stories of people getting bumped on wages, whether this is down to the national house builders not paying the subbie in the first instance or just the subbies not paying the workers i'm not sure, but maybe a bit of both.

To put into context, before the crash, prices where £380-£500 per thousand and £10-£12 m2 of 100mm blockwork.

I'm so glad I just built a house in the jungle and thus exempt from all this.

You don't eat tinned beans then?

Bovis reporting good results, dividend resumption and a good start to 2011. (Similar from Persimmon last week)

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12729865

No mention of near slave wages being paid now in that article is there.

Sorry, I guess I misread your joke.

 

But no, I am not bullish. I expect a nominal fall of about 10% over the next year or so (think it was about Sep/Oct 2010 that I made that prediction) and more in real terms.

 

However, it does sometimes seem that, compared to many here, that my mildly bearish views put me on the bullish side of the posts.

 

I just don't see the "end of the world" scenario happening and also see low rates continuing for a good while yet. I think inflation will fall back as the year progresses and the blip in IR rise talk will abate.

 

I also think (from local evidence) that nice areas are holding up well and that the not-so-nice areas have - and will continue to - bear the brunt of the falls. There are still a lot of people with a lot of money that want to live in the nice areas (with the good schools etc) and are still paying over the odds to do so.

 

So how come you're off to see a house? I'm guessing it's a BMV do-er-uper. I remember you are in the trade yes?

We got a real bargain like that in the dip in 2009 after STRing, for the second time in late 2007, and I have to say, even with the falls I expect, for us it was absolutely the right thing to do. (Of course it helps that, due to luck and timing, we can absorb a drop in the market, from current value, of ~25% before we are in a loss position).

 

PS I have always said that if a shock event causes rates to really rise (i.e. several percent) then all bets are off.

Yes was a BMV needing complete renovation, seems the owner is on the verge of repossession. Paining over an offer, but suspect it sold already as the agent selling is renowned for under hand tactics, the house was listed on their website this morning but not on Rightmove and someone else was viewing it with me.

2008/2009 seems to have been the time to buy when the fear was at it's height. The postcode i'm looking a few where sold then at 2002 prices, anything that gets reduced to around 2004/2005 prices now gets snapped up now.

Not specifically looking for a do-it-uper, just something priced to sell. If it doesn't happen within the nest few months, then i'm of to Thailand to see how long £10K will last.

Errm, Ok, so I have read the HPC thread.

 

The number of approvals has risen massively (albeit, from a small base) and the number advanced currently is low.

But, there is always a delay between approved and advanced. Advanced will, therefore, rise over the next few months.

 

So what's your point exactly? Only a fool would leverage their selves to the hilt now.

 

Did you mistake me for a bull? Read my previous posts. I am no bull, but I do believe in balanced views, instead of wishful group think.

Sorry my mistake they are talking about the BBA figures being adjusted.

The last sentence in my previous post was meant to be a joke about the weather, poorly put i'm sure.

Anyway aren't you a bull? in regards to being balanced, it wasn't on the way up, so why should it be on the way down. The UK is in a phoney war period at the moment. Just my opinion of course. Saying that i'm going to view a house shortly:(

BoE Jan figures 45,723

CML Jan figures 28,500

 

That's some seasonal adjustment

 

 

 

You couldn't do something about the snow up here in bonny Scotland while you're at it, could you? (please )

Read the thread on HPC. Aren't the BOE also only approvals which don't always translate into lending.

You need to buy a house and leverage yourself to the hilt, then i can adjust it for you.

Maybe, but then again, maybe not.

 

It all depends whether it is bank or building society lending. The BoE (bigger sample and more mortgages) reported much higher than expected.

 

 

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/uk-jan-mortgage-approvals-up-idUKLNE72001Y20110301

 

That seems to show a switch away from BSs to Banks.

The BOE seasonally adjust, the NSA are not widely available but are closer to the CML, there is a thread on HPC about it.

I'm going to seasonally adjust the weather i think, or just move to la la land and be done with it.

Interesting take on the benefits safety net. So why are repossessions not running at zero then?

North Birmingham, flats down hard, very hard some as much as 40%. Houses some come on at 2007 prices others around 15% off, some nice repo's come up fairly often. I wasn't looking to buy in 2008-2009 but doing research on what's sold since then 2 house's have sold at 2002 prices and 1 even a 50%+ reduction from peak in the most desirable of roads.

It's all about being in the right place at the right time, so i'm actively looking and when something comes up i will be buying.

Noticed a lot of stuff going SSTC.

Taken from the front page of HPC comments section on the Nationwide figures today. Posted by phdinbubbles.

Seasonal adjustments for Feb:

2001: -0.3370%

2002: -0.2599%

2003: -0.2225%

2004: -0.3108%

2005: -0.2393%

2006: -0.0599%

2007: -0.1550%

2008: +0.1178%

2009: +0.0306%

2010: +0.3219%

2011: +0.56% (based on the non-re-adjusted NSA figures, as with previous years)

2012: +5%?

hmmm. Any thoughts on these stats?

That was my understanding too. Although I don't think you can have savings above a set limit also?

Yes if it's a means tested benefit the rules are the same if your self employed regarding savings. £6k and below and sliding scale £6k - £16k.

Saying that though i have read on the internet people declaring between £30k & £60k savings and being allowed JSA.Not sure if they where registered self employed;)

I assume people are talking about being self employed.

I have heard stories of people being refused benefits when registered self employed. The reason is i think that it's part of being self employed and having gaps in employment. So lets say you work a few months,no work so you want to sign on,find work again for a few weeks or months, then want to sign on again. At a point you would be refused benefits and i have been told by people with families. As with recessions the gaps of not working get more frequent and longer.

Although you can claim benefits(JSA/income support) while being self employed and as long as your not following the above pattern. Sickness benefit, they check your NI contributions from any 2 years from the previous 3, any gaps found, they will not pay ANY sickness benefit and you have to claim income support.

And it's back!

 

The 90% mortgage makes a return to the UK.

 

And guess who's offering it?

 

Yep, the Northern Rock!

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/fe...-cent-mortgages

Meh.

Wait till they roll out the 125%

Latest land reg

London - MoM 1.6 YoY 2.4

South West - MoM 1.6 YoY -0.4

South East - MoM 0.5 YoY -0.1

East - Mom 0.4 YoY -0.2

West Midlands - MoM -0.4 YoY -1.4

East Midlands - MoM -0.5 YoY -1.9

North East - MoM -0.6 YoY -2.5

Yorkshire & The Humber - MoM -1.3 YoY -2.6

North West - MoM -2.0 YoY -2.1

Wales - MoM -4.2 YoY -6.1

North south divide.

Look at Wales

Talking of rents, just reading on HPC that 40% of the private rental sector is paid for via benefits.

No link and not sure if the figure is correct.

A few doors down from where i'm living a guy in his 30's split from his girlfriend and has had his house on the market for over a year at 2007 prices, he can't drop the price as he bought it in 2007. He has decided to rent it out and the first day a stream of single mothers went through the door. Not cheap either the rent, must be renting it as furnished. He can kiss goodbye to his possessions then.

Any number of similar properties in the area for sale going for 25% less.

The Birmingham market is well and truly fucked.

No offence Dr B, and please don't take this the wrong way, but this really shows your lack of understanding of the UK market.

 

Meanwhile, more news to dampen the falls.

 

Lowest number of new homes built since 1923.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Number-ne...763836.html?x=0

Makes me weep being a bricklayer. I'd be inclined to say that work will boom at some point in future, but only if prices fall first, otherwise affordability will just choke any boom off.

I mean how can another upturn start from 5x plus earnings.

70% drop in remortgaging since the boom. Is that not a Crash? I mean 70% is a pretty big number.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Remortgag...497930.html?x=0

 

Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders said that the number of people remortgaging fell to a 13-year low of just 313,200, compared with 408,000 during 2008, and a typical level of over 1 million during the housing boom of the last decade.

 

1 million at peak. 313,200 now. That’s a 70% drop!!!!

 

In my book that's a crash

Sadly it's a crash in sales, but if it continues then prices will be set at the margins, death,divorce,un-employment. Then all the kite flyers will be stuck.

Well like i said before in the thread Cottons next auction in Birmingham 25% of the entries are repo's. This is an unpreceded amount, remember these have been marketed with agents for a period with no takers and are now being dropped at auction at most likely big loses to the banks.

Taken from HPC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00ym...and_08_02_2011/

True, but I never said it was a good outcome, just the best of the alternatives.

 

I think it will be grim whatever happens, just depends on how many it will be grim for. The fewer, the better.

That's it, there is no good outcome. They are trying to mitigate and set a course of least impact.

But make no mistake this baby is crashing.

Personal debt yes, there are some negative, but also some positive (eg nominal falls in housing are less, therefore less neg eq).

 

But there are other (arguably more important) effects, eg the deficit will halve over ~5 years with just 3% CPI. That'll certainly help the help the tax payer, and keep rates lower.

Well considering how close to the edge many people are, many could be pushed over with either inflation or interest rate rises. Thus bringing about the very thing you mention they are trying to avoid.

Seeing a nice stream of repo's already. About the only thing selling in my areas.

Latest Birmingham auction has a 25% repo entry, banks not holding back any more me thinks.

http://www.cottons.co.uk/auctions.asp

Government debt i agree.

Not forgetting the so-called "wet dream" outcome, where they teeter between inflation and deflation for several years while slowly inflating away the debt (as they have been for the past couple of years).

Only with wage inflation, without it, the scenario will have a negative effect.