neil324

I'm going to go and have a look at this tomorrow

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-32403734.html

 

Only just come on the market but straight away it's for sale by informal tender.

Seen local properties go IT after a long time on the market but not straight away.

 

Has anybody got any thoughts on what they hope to achieve by this?

The best price possible.

Houses that require work generate lots of interest, so they can look at lots of offers without committing. If no good offers received then maybe they will market it.

I purchased by informal offer in 2005, house was on for £120K, i offered £135K cash which was accepted.In much the same condition as that house, value done up about £180k. Different market then of course.

It does look a nice road and it's hard to gauge what it's worth the last time a similar house sold was no 6 in Mar 2002 for £130k assuming it needed no work. So say £30K spenk on that takes the property to around 2005 levels if you pay asking price of course. All rough figures, if your local then you know the area better.

Depending how bad you want the property, that's what informal tender works on, if your position is cash etc.

Good luck.

Truly sickening.

Although how many have or will benefit to have an affect on prices will remain to be seen.

Why I think it might not be doomsday. (from Br B's property cycles)

 

I think a steady, slow reduction in prices over a few years (10 to 15% maybe) coupled with continued ultra low rates (which is currently a high probability) and inflation bubbling away in the background, would put things on a much more sustainable path.

 

This would still hurt a few, but would not result in the death-cycle of falling prices = bank losses = bank bailouts = more pain for tax payer = more cuts = higher unemployment = more falls = more repos = more bank losses........ etc etc.

 

Who benefits from this? No-one, no-one at all, and the banks and (most importantly) the bondholders and the government and most of the country realise this.

 

We are not Ireland or the US, we never had the massive oversupply (I know it's not just about supply demand etc and all about credit, but it still does have some effects) and new building (which wasn’t keeping up even in the boom years) has practically stopped in the UK now. There is a housing shortage in the UK, there has been for years, this is one of the causes of the high rents.

 

The vast majority of people who buy houses in the UK are not investors. They have a simple understanding that you get a mortgage then buy a house, live in the house and then, after ~25 years your house is yours, no landlord, no rent to pay, ever.

 

This is a simple and very effective idea. Unless you are one of the poor soles to lose their jobs, and not be re-employed before your benefits/savings expire, you will not lose your house.

 

If you are an investor, then yes, Dr B's arguments make perfect sense. Sell properties and buy them back cheaper later. But the vast majority still won't, and after all the discussions he has had with them, he must know that now. That’s their problem, but again, if they have tenants paying the mortgage, after 25 years, the landlord owns the property.

 

I don't see a major problem arising from the sov debt either. Europe will mess about, but then will bailout Portugal and Spain if they have to. They are not going to let them go down.

 

It took a once in a lifetime global meltdown to cause the last crash. Even with all the global imbalances and problems still existing from the, the most likely course is a gentle muddling along again for several years.

Erm wasn't house prices falling before Lehmans. It took a global problem to postpone it, thats all.

I know plenty of people who have multiple properties who are leveraged to their eyeballs. All done through RBS. They even embraced it 110% buying property in Bulgaria leveraging their UK properties. All in their 30's, average wage.

True, but I was referring to loans given out now and a potential 20% drop over a year or so (as happened 2008-2009). Also, 2007 had a lot of IO mortgages given out (and many >>80LTV).

 

People do not tend to sell their house in the UK when there are price falls (unless they are absolutely forced to) as they just do not see them as disposable assets. The vast vast majority see them as homes, which they are paying for over the 25 years of the mortgage. As long as they pay the mortgage, they don't have to sell and after 25 years they own it. That’s the overriding mentality here.

 

They didn’t run for the exits in the 90-96 crash, nor do I believe they will now.

 

A tiny minority look at it purely as an investment.

Plenty of forced sellers though divorce,death,unemployment prices will be set at the margins.

Sounds like a recipe for more printing.

With inflation where it is, i doubt it will taste nice.

I must admit it surprised me - and I was equally dubious about it when my son told me about it. My son has proved himself to be a reliable and trustworthy employee - and his boss seems to have taken a shine to him. The deal is unwritten - my son has agreed to pay him back if he leaves within 2 years of completing his course. The cheque his boss gave him to pay for the first year of the course looked pretty real to me.

 

My son - 'the labourer' - has other skills too. As well as overhauling the web site, he's also refining the way the busine

 

 

 

I left the industry 20 years ago. I'm trying to visualise the sort of blokes I knew who were bricklayers - sat at a computer - adding posts to a forum. No, it just won't come. You sure you're not in a forum of one?

 

 

 

No, just a different part of the country. Had a plumber my son knows around a month before Christmas - wanted a radiator moved (and changed for a bigger one) in one of the bedrooms. Wanted £300 to do the job and 'no chance this side of Christmas' - haven't heard from him since.

 

2 big 5 bed new builds the other side of the golf course - going up at a very fast rate. Lads working all over Christmas I noticed. Attic conversion on the go on a house about 10 away from mine. Big estate (1500 homes in total) - a few miles from me - 4 or 5 of the big builders building steadily there. Another development in a local market town - visited the show home one Saturday before Christmas (bored and happened to be passing). 1st phase all sold - 2nd phase under construction. Unbelievably (given the amount of empty office space) - couple of big new office developments on the go a few miles away too.

 

Son's friend is a trainee QS - company he works for is very busy.

I shouldn't feed the troll but i'm bored.

Here's the forum, i use the same user name as here.

http://londonbricklayers.co.uk/phpBB-3.0/phpBB3/index.php

So which part of the country you from then, maybe i can post a thread on there asking if it's booming there and when i get conformation i can jump on the train with my bags packed and earn a fortune.

Right so Nationwide seasonally adjust up and Halifax down in December. That makes sense.

Great start to 2011. Looks like London is holding the whole thing up, glad i don't live there. We get things sliding there it should pick up speed.

Right

 

PS, sounds a bit harsh on the job front. Good luck. (You don't do rendering do you?)

Thanks something will come up, if not will start advertising, Yellow pages etc, although reluctant to spend money advertising in the present climate.

No, had experience but not enough,wet trades,bricklaying & plastering take years to prefect, some professional plasterers don't touch rendering.

A little cheaper perhaps, but they would have to raise a lot to do that, and the markets know the problems that would cause. If I were a bond trader, it wouldn't fill me with confidence.

 

Not sure what you mean re the latest Vat increase. Is it the thought that this will add positive pressure to CPI, or negative as it really causes people to tighten their belts?

 

I think we will see a bit of both of these effects. Although, from the lack of pull-forward demand seen in the auto trade and retailers reports over the last few days, it seems this might not be the case, hence upwards pressure on cpi and talk of 4%.

 

However, the cuts etc and possible demand pullback will bring downwards pressure and I don't think inflation will run away without wage inflation. We are nowhere near there, (yet).

 

I agree it is a risky game, but with inflation on one side and deflationary on the other, the best trick is to keep inflation bubbling away (eroding the debt, and reducing the deficit), while making everyone scared of deflation so they don’t demand pay rises.

 

It seems to be working very well so far.

 

4% is not a problem for them (for a few months), more than this, for longer, would result in wage demands.

The VAT increase puts upward pressure on CPI through price increases.

But this should be cancelled out by the previous rise & the devaluation filtering out the figures, but it's starting to compound and snow ball.

That why i doubt inflation will fall back from 4%.

I don't live in the UK now, nor do I plan to return there.

 

But it occurs to me that...

 

Some older folk with a bit of money, should be thinking of hiring (unemployed?) younger folk to start building a refuge for them in farming areas of the UK.

 

This would:

+ Give meaningful work to the young

+ Establish a relationship, which might be of value to both

+ Begin the build a "lifeboat" which could provide a safer future for the families of the investor, and the young worker

 

Does anyone else see potential in this idea ?

Ok i have a VI in this idea.

But what if the government goes on a mass house building program like the 1960's. Funded by more QE. More social housing,downward pressure on house prices,construction GDP would rocket. Unemployment figures would be helped.

Yes but as Bold as Brass points out, it will make verry little difference to global commodity prices if the BoE acts (actually, I don't think anyone would notice).

 

Besides, as you have pointed out, reckless lending isn't happening in the UK (hardly any lending happening here) especially re property.

 

The balance is between a bit of inflation (which BoE and Gov are quite happy to have for now) vs asset price collapse from raising rates to high to quick, which would really hit our banks.

A stronger Sterling would make them cheaper though.

Lets see what happens with the coming CPI figures. The VAT increase from 15 to 17.5 & the devaluation are now out of the yearly figures and not only should they cancel out the VAT increase to 20% they should be putting downward pressure on CPI. Instead there is talk of 4% CPI.

Dangerous game the BOE are playing, it's all falling apart regardless, but if inflation starts running away. The UK is finished. GAME OVER.

Things looking grim here (construction related) hardly any work on and not much on the horizon. So much so that I have applied for a part time job working evenings / weekends in a local shop. If I get the job it should help keep the wolf from the door should the worst happen, or I can add the extra money to my savings / investments. Quite a few people I know have been made redundant / facing redundancy in 2011 and from talking to them and what I see it looks like this year will be grimmer than 2007, 2008, 2009 or 2010. I don't know if I really want to buy/stay in the UK long term.

What area of construction and where in the UK are you?

I hope you can buy it cheaply enough to make a nice profit doing it up

 

I do not envy your situation, and would not want to see you fall into a loss, simply to stay busy

Having slept on it and done the sums, it would appear not.

I'm not even thinking of selling it on. It's in my target area where i want to live when all this starts to bottom out. I don't won't to be working full time and doing up a house at the same time. So i was just trying use my time usefully.

I might be desperate but i'm not stupid.

Saying that i fully expect it to sell.

House up for £95K(offers over), same house down the road up for £140K done up. I'd imagine you would spend £20K on the property. With where prices are going the fact that a cheeky offer on the house already done up.

It's close as it's for living in, but to be honest i'm not 100% about the road the house is on, if it was a different road then i would have bought it.

Like house prices themselves, this varies hugely from region to region. My eldest son is working for a small builder at the moment - he (the builder) does mainly extensions and the odd new build. My son was working for him as a labour only subcontractor as a sort of cross between a labourer and a right-hand man - but, luckily, the builder has so much work on that he has taken my son on full time and is paying for him to do a foundation course for a degree. (He wants to move more into development rather than building and wants my son, in the future, to take much bigger role in the business).

 

And, being in the building game, he now has a wide network of contacts - roofers, brickies, tilers, sparks etc. etc. - and they're all busy. Not flat out (turning work down) but definitely with plenty of work on. Why, how and where the money is coming from baffles me - but there does seem to be a lot of money floating around in my area.

 

Whereas, when my wife was looking for a job (office - sales - admin - crappo stuff), she was finding that most jobs had over a 100 applicants.

Why would a builder pay for your son, the labourer to do a degree when he can take his pick for free of already trained + experienced people?

Being my profession, I frequent a forum for bricklayers, which covers the whole of the UK. Work is DEAD, or if your lucky to be working prices and pay are 40% down. If the brickies ain't building the walls the roofers aren't putting roofs on,plasterers aren't plastering the walls etc etc.

This is what Nulabour and the banks have done to people in the UK, taken from the said forum a message posted 30 Dec 2010 poster from Glasgow.

For the first time in my life ,i want to leave the job i love , just can't survive anymore , have a full years work ahead of me but the prices are so bad , I know i,m lucky to say have a job for the next year but something has to give its all well saying

something s better than nothing but there comes a point where you have to draw a line ,have worked for the same guy now for over a year and yes he praises me and my squad all the time (because we do things right and keep the cow of his back )but just can't survive on his shite pay and he aint gonna put prices up any time soon and is adamant that he not gonna put anybody on a day rate' so have to think of another profession but at 38 with three kids dont know what to try anybody

got any suggestions , (not goin in police ,or army ) any help ?

The job i went for yesterday the employer said work was tight but he kept his workers working rather than laying off, to quote 'they all have mortgages'. All his work is on domestic private housing.

Job i phoned the other day, the work is national for BP, Morrisons, etc. The empylor said last year he only had enough work for 10 months out of the 12 months, but he had the lads doing the offices yard up etc rather than laying off.

Maybe you live in a parallel universe though.

Went for a job interview today, 'all round builder' the guy said he had about 70 applicants as far afield as Chester, the job being in Birmingham Not exactly good pay either.

Applied for another position of bricklayer/all rounder sent of my CV yesterday saying that i would do a 1 week work trial without pay to show my skills set and work ethic. This just to try and get ahead of the hundreds that will apply no doubt.

The point i'm making it's grim out there. Even worse than the papers or figures are saying.

Now just noticed a house in my target area come up today, needs complete renovation, it still has an outside toilet so will be viewing tommorrow if not sold already and almost certain of a cash offer going in. With this thinking i can at least keep active and spend my time doing the house up.

My area of Birmingham have noticed quite a few repo's this last month, some ok prices to.

Also there was about 4/5 new build flats that was built 2006/2007, these were marketed for some time at just below what was paid in 2006/2007, one sold the rest was pulled off the market. So banks are definitely trying to manage the falls.

The sad circumstances for first time buyer brits.THEY CANT.!!!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/11846403 vid from the beeb

 

More young couples are being forced to move in with flatmates because they can't afford their own place, property websites have told Newsbeat.

 

The number searching the internet for a shared, double room in a large house has soared since the start of the year.

 

Matt and Esther from Solihull near Birmingham explain why they are choosing to live with other people after they get married.

Not surprised Solihull being a desirable place to live.

It's quite interesting the noise from the Nationwide this week, given their monthly stats are due. I suspect there going to be flat or maybe a slight negative figure.

As for interest rates, if commodity prices hold up with a falling Pound against a strengthening Dollar then pressure will be mounting to start raising in Q1 2011.

All this bullish news that rates wont be rising untill 2012 etc, no one is even talking about the outside chance of an early rise, that in it's self is contrarian.

An orwellian connundrum at its very best

LOVE IS HATE and HOUSING BENEFIT CUTS WILL STOP SOCIAL UNREST.

Answers on a postcard please!!!!

 

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/nov...fit-questioning

 

Housing benefit cuts will stop social unrest, claims Cameron

Social unrest would have been likely if housing benefit payments had not been slashed, David Cameron said today after claims that his cuts would lead to an influx of poor families from inner cities to hard-pressed suburbs.

 

He challenged Margaret Hodge, the chair of the Public Accounts Committee, to join him in the streets of her home in Islington, north London, to find out whether the public supported the cuts.

Who gives a flying...?

As long as the gravy train stops, i don't care who chucks their toys out the pram, give the police something to do.

No need for a stab in the dark. It's all there on the graphs on globalpropertyguide.com

Greece boom not as big as Ireland.

Surprised by the Iceland chart.

Did Greece have the same crack up boom in prices the same as Ireland though, a wild stab in the dark now...............no.