Van

It's quite interesting the noise from the Nationwide this week, given their monthly stats are due. I suspect there going to be flat or maybe a slight negative figure.

The are preparing the ground for YoY turning negative very soon.

Here is the current dataset:

Oct-09/ 162,038

Nov-09/ 162,764

Dec-09/ 162,103

Jan-10/ 163,481

Feb-10/ 161,320

Mar-10/ 164,519

Apr-10/ 167,802

May-10/ 169,162

Jun-10/ 170,111

Jul-10/ 169,347

Aug-10/ 166,507

Sep-10/ 166,757

Oct-10/ 164,381

- Current YoY: 1.445%

- Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%.

- Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero!

- Prices were increasing up to June 2010, so I expect the YoY fall to accelerate as we head into the spring

Nationwide was -0.7% today (or -1.4% for NSA).

Now tantalisingly close to going YoY negative. Once that happens I think sentiment and prices will take another big lurch down as people buying on the bounce in the last 18 months will realise they've lost money in the last year and that the bull market really is utterly dead and buried.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11638433

Clearly alot of delusion is out there. Sellers think that if they increase the asking price then buyers think they'll get a bargain when they negotiate a "discount".

That's why new mortgage lending is at record lows. Transactions have fallen through the floor.

When the public sector cuts start to come in and a lot of these sellers lose their income, we'll see forced selling. Give it a year and we'll have moved on from this 2nd stage of denial to outright panic.

I love the way RightMove is seen as a flawed survey on the way UP and gospel on the way DOWN.

Rightmove is the "delusion" index. It has it's uses. Now we have Rightmove index sinking fast and the RICS survey turning negative in the last few months. These are generally regarded as the leading indexes, while the lagging Halifax/Nationwide are levelling off quickly and will soon be flat YoY. The ship is definitely turning now.

And let's not forget these falls should be seen in the light of very low interest rates. Could this be the last chance to exit the market before falls become rife? Just imagine if rates went up even a little! Last month there was talk of 8 percent rates. That would crucify the market and all the- unto now- 'lucky' ones on tracker rates. Hope they have been putting the 'little extra' away each month.

Like hell.

This is Brown's legacy present to Cameron. A time bomb.

Indeed. The falls in 2007/2008 came on the back of rates going from 3.5% -> 5.5%.

Now we have suckers over-leveraged on 0.5% base rate - so any increase in the rates is going to have a HUGE proportional affect on the cost of their mortgages. There WILL be a bloodbath when you have rising rates and public sector workers laid off all over the place.

Our landlady has put our place on the market. She is asking x290 our current rent. There hasn't been a single view since it went on 3 months ago. I don't think there's any danger of us having to move out before out lease is up next July.

Thanks.

 

This could get ugly sooner rather than later...

Hell, yeah.

So Silver supply has basically fallen by almost half in the last 15 months?

Silver looking pretty good today. There must be some pretty heavy short covering going on.

It's underperformed badly in the last month but hopefully this won't last.

The strength in Gold & Silver despite the USD bounce bodes well for long term prospects.

Don't know if this has been posted before, but tis a good article:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3753.html

How High Can Gold Go Before Peaking - Gold Dow Jones Ratio Important Indicator

"The problem is that the target is moving; it moves approximately with the rate of inflation."

Gold holding on very well despite the dollar strength.

Silver on the other hand very weak and looks like it could close below support.

I have bought some silver today...

Simple but very informative chart - shows us that on the brief occasions when RSI has dipped below 50 has been a great time to buy/add.

Support coming in at the ~$1080.

So far it's making a higher low....