Meralti

Here's the original report and a good indication of which groups are benefiting from the growing inequity resulting from current policies. Tax justice network report

Calm down. I'm not really interested in an argument. I do think that your view is rose-tinted; and that there is a generational reason for that. For many people things are getting worse and not better. It's true that this is a frog-boilingly slow process but never the less you should acknowledge it. The reasons are clear, the finance industry has to be sorted out before the corner can be turned and real social/economic improvements made.

Surely the point of a bank is to act as a utility that connects customers that have capital deficits to customers with capital surpluses. This allows the virtuous (not malivestment) of those capital deficits. Or maybe the real point of a bank is to do something else entirely. See a problem here? My kids wear 2nd hand cloths. I find this normal. I earn a good wage and receive no welfare. In no way do I see this a sign of poverty, just sensible budgeting. Interesting that you don't see any problem with your friend who hasn't worked for 15 years. His life style is only possible because of the large taxes that people like me pay to the state. To what extent do you think that the trajectory of his, or even your life, would be possible for someone in their 20ies today? Guess they're just in the wrong group.

You're forgeting an important point. The solution to the problems of the 70ies was provided by the state (in the 80ies) by taking on the unions and other entrenched vested interests. Thats not happenning now: the banks are playing the role the unions played in the 70ies - trying to create a system where society was held to ranson, in order to meet their demands/requiements. They are being aided in this by the state to the detriment of society and the economy at large. People with property interests and certain other groups who've been protected are better off. This is mainly due to the artificially low rates and wholesale rigging of markets. I don't think others outside this group necessarily are.

Add to this a bearish figure from Rics. Rics has traditionally been a leading indicator for other indices predictiong the trend on inflection points of others quite well, but often overstating the levels.

Gross mortgage lending plunges 19% in April Gross mortgage lending fell by 19 per cent in April from £12.6bn in March to an estimated £10.2bn according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ latest figures. Britons' finances squeezed in May, outlook gloomy Britons' household finances worsened at their fastest rate in four months in May as some mortgage holders grappled with higher repayments, while worries about jobs and rising living costs also increased, a survey showed on Monday. Markit's headline household finance index fell to 36.6 in May from 37.0 in April, well below the 50 level which would mark no change in finances, showing the sharpest deterioration in household finances since January. The squeeze is on.

Meanwhile Santander scales back leanding Downward pressure on prices will increases due to lack of mortgage lending; fewer buyers leads to less demand. The end game is approaching; in SE England at a glacial pace. Faster up North. BTW. It's rumoured that the reported increase in btl lending is for a large part due to mortgage fraud. People just cannot get residential mortgages so apply for BTL mortgages with no intentionos letting.

As noted this is dependant on location. I'm sure some properties have increased that much, especially in central London. Where I am I just moved to a new rental. Rent is about 5/6 of the asking rent and £50 more than the previous tenants who had lived there for over 2 years. That said asking prices are up but my strong impression is that achieved rents much less so. Rents are volatile and landlords very often try it on when a property is first marketed. Those that drop prices after a few weeks can let easily and they would loose more by having the property empty for a month or two. At my last place the ll demanded a 12% increase - I refused and moved to a better place. He has now had an empty property for 1 and 1/2 months. Don't believe all the hype.

Here something to remove from your list of bull-list. Mortgage fraud no longer officially sanctioned Btw. Yes I think that the commodity boom has helped Australia and Canada enormously. Not so sure how long it will continue though, it looks like we heading for a global recession next year. The Canadian ecomomy shrank in the 2nd quarter.

There are some attributes that set the UK apart. The ones that count for this argument are the fact we have our own currency and the boe can set the base rate as it chooses, while other countries like the US also have these attributes, the market in that country is also far greater in size and the degree of polical interference in it far less. Countries such as Canada and Australia also have their own currencies and set their own rates - these two have also avoided housing melt down - so far. As you yourself have noted the nominal crash has been avoided, or is it just delayed, by devaluing the currency and maintaining ultra low rates so that property owners do not come under real stress. This has worked so far. I, and others, have noted many times that this was done for two reasons. To prevent collapse of the UK banks in 2009. To give Gordon Brown a fighting chance of winning the 2010 election. While the first reason still has validity the banks have been recapitialised to an extent and could in most cases survive a decrease of 25% in nominal terms, although not without some loosing their bonuses. The second is now irrelevant. The real question is how long will the current situation continue. Nothing more nothing less. As soon as it changes significantly a crash will be back on the cards. You've admitted this already. Why continue to spout the same old arguments about why property only ever goes up. Or are you just trolling?

This simple means that vendors don't have to sell and keeps them in a zombie state. This is a result of people not buying. This is highly oportunistic of landlord (not that I blame them for it) and I fully expect this to be tempory. In fact I am already seeing a softening in comparison to be rises seen in the spring.

U.K. House Prices Fell for Fourth Straight Month in August

JD, I've never seen you present an argument outside of: Britain is a small island, land - they aren't making any more of it. Immigration will continue to boost demand Housing benefit keeps rents high and underpins capital values. Money Printing/ bank bailouts. We're a nation of house buyers/ Pent up FTBers and investors UK housing provides a yield the only thing left in the UK that has value. These arguments have been done to death in various fora over the years. Most have been should to be false when fully analysed yet you continue to select any evidence that superficially supports any of the above, included the Laguarde speach. Your sound like a broken record and deserve to be mocked. The availability of credit is what drives the market. Low interest rates means vendors are not under duress to sell. The rest really is irrelevant, it would be easier to just admit it.

At no point did I notice anything explicit being said about mortgage let offs, debt forgiveness or lower rate for mortgage holders outside of a US context. Concerning Europen bank capitalisation she said: Explicitly concerning debt she said: Not quite the same as what you imply with your misquotation JD. Misrrepresentation - those old EA habits did hard huh! The full transcript can be read at Global risks are rising What she did say about mortgage holders was in a specific US context: This is not the same as what you imply in your post. Anyway Laguarde doesn't determine US policy in this regard.

The number of new-comers is not much changed, less people are leaving. Many of the non-eu people entering are students. The number of returning Brits has increased. So, less houses on the market for both sale and rent, as less people leave. Returning Brits who rented their properties whilst abroad will reduce the number of family houses for rent. Not sure it makes much difference at the end of the day. The key market driver for residential housing is availability of credit. Total mortgage lending is reduced and the trend is downwards.

Showing your credentials as an ex-EA by misintepreting statistic again JD. The rise in NET immigration is almost entirely attributable to a fall in emmigration, i.e, fewer people are leaving - this number is normally subtracted from the number arriving to give a net figure. Due to other economies battening down the hatches and refusing to take disaffected Brits. All the more fuel for the next set of riots.

I think you're right about the banks and lending, their stocks are getting hammered too. Could this be the start of a second credit crunch.

9:00 am and check out the action on BDEV. Down 6.47% already. 21 MA 252MA cross imminent.

Looks as if the 21 day MA will cross the 252 MA in a couple of days of trading. BVS and PSN have also crossed the 252 MA in the last few days. For these the 21 day MA is a little behind the 252 MA - but we see the same pattern emerging after bearish head and shoulder action in the weeks before. Not sure about the timing of HPI falls. I thought the the builders shares led property by a few months, the really signifcant falls happened in 2008 and where halted by ZIRP.

And the hint was?

Barret down 3.6% today so far and now just under 101. Looks like we've broken below the neck-line of the head-and-shoulders pattern that we've seen emergee over the last few weeks.

Agreed. I think that this is also one reason why I'm seeing houses sitting on the market for months (often more than 12) unsold. People just cannot afford to sell at the prices that are buyers are willing to pay. Yes, there is some wishful thinking in testing the market but if they are really serious about selling then they will lower prices - and I mean by more than 5K.

I noticed this and an excellent call. I expect imminent falls. Asking prices are just starting to be reduced. Properties are sticking for ages and buyer interest appears to be low. Vendors who want/need to sell will have to get real, otherwise their properties will hang around for ages.

There's an excellent comment on this article posted by Mack that I've quoted below: This speaks for itself and gives a pretty good international perspective too.

y/y m/m forcast actual ----- ----------- ------ DCLG HPI -1.6% -0.2% -0.3% released today by the forex factory The trend is from the chart and has broken into the negative.