Meralti

The land registry report that prices fell nationally by 0.8% in October. Average prices are now £165.505.

As reported by the BBC

Recent house price surveys have shown the effect of a lack of demand among buyers unable to secure a mortgage, as well as more properties coming onto the market.

The council of mortgage lenders has just released data showing a continuing mortgage slump as reported by the press association.

The group now expects net lending, which strips out redemptions and repayments, to be just £9 billion during 2010, well down on its original forecast of £15 billion and its revised forecast of £12 billion, and only a fraction of the £108 billion that net lending totalled in 2007.

That means that the net lending for this year is 1/12 of that seen in 2007 (the UK property peak).

Rics report the most negative figures since April 2009. I know that this isn't the most accurate index, but its is a reasonable indication of sentiment non the less.

From the FT

The sample is 278 surveyors.

55 per cent reported falling prices.

4 per cent reported rising prices.

Transactions continued to fall during October from an average of 16.7 to 15.2 per surveyor.

Lloyds Banking Group, which provided 60 per cent of all buy-to-let mortgages last year, has annouces that it is to cut maximum lending to landlords to a fifth of what the bank was willing to advance in 2009

As report in the Telegraph

This is an interesting development, just as things really begin to turn downwards. Lloyds looks like being the first (and largest in this sector) lender to pull the plug on BTL.

No more selling through brokers as too much fraud.

No more than 3 properties in a portfolio, higher than this is too risky.

Will other lenders will follow there lead?

Lloyds BTL changes

Thanks for the comment, Meralti.

 

I have to say that I am a little surprised that so little has been made (here & elsewhere) of the very deep 3 months drop in Gr-London bids.

I think it may be a precursor to some very big falls, if the momentum continues

 

If the 3mo-MA stays pink, it is going to soon bring some very deep RED to that chart.

 

It has been a long time since we saw any significant BLUE on the chart

This sort of analysis will be sat on until it cannot be denied, especially by an organisation like Rightmove, and is confirmed by every other index. It will take a few months to work through and there may be contrary indicators that will be used to refute it.

I think you're right about the probable speed and depth of the falls, this could also take a few months to really gain momentum though. Should be well under way by Q1 next year.

Paint it RED ! Greater London's falling fast

Biggest 3 month fall yet in Rightmove's index

===================================

 

That's an average of -2.4% per month, more than double the "1% speed limit" than we normally see during a crash. And if it does not bounce back very fast, it will be telling us that London may be set for one of the biggest price drops in History.

 

Fasten your seat belts !

This is great news for us housing bears still hibernating in the UK. The days are growing longer but its still cold outside, I think I'll stay in my warm cave a little longer. I truly think that this will be a glorious spring.

Bubb, thanks for your work on this, and for making it available.