frizzers

Replying to Chazza, Jin and Bubb, Mid-sized family homes in decent parts of London are in a bull market. It's as simple as that. That may change, with higher rates etc, but it's a bull market. Buyers are families with children late 30s early 40s who, for the most part, by accident of birth, were buying their 1st properties in the mid 1990s. Thus they got in at the bottom and, even though they may have increased the size of their mortgage, will all have huge amounts of equity, as they have moved up the property ladder. Career-wise they are enjoying their best years 35-45, so earnings are good. And repayment-wise they are all feeling rich as the low rates of the last three years have meant their monthly repayments have been next to nothing. So they have benefitted the most from circumstance. In addition, these kind of people will for the most part be well educated, have decent jobs, not over-leverage themselves (those that have will have got much richer, largely speaking, as the system has rewarded debt) , often mum and dad work which means two incomes, be lawyers, doctors, city boys and so on. Plus areas like certain parts of Battersea are desirable because , south of Clapham Junction, there is the pleasant Northcote Road and very few council housing, low levels of crime (by London standards) so families are happy bringing up their kids there. Much happier than in the more conveniently located Vauxhall, say, or Lambeth ... It will take a hell of a sea change to destroy all that ...

What do you read into that?

Well, this accurately reflects my experience of London. No HPC here: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ow-in-hendon.do The average detached family home hits the £1m mark -

Don't know why but I find my eyes wandering away from the eagles to something else ...

Well, I've just come back from Norway and I effing loved it

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business...8&mid=54055 then read these from the bottom up. http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.m...&eYear=2011

Understanding Derivatives Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit . By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral. At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These securities then are bundled and traded on international securities markets. Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses. One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi. Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs. Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers. Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar. Now do you understand?

add a 144 dma to that and it's even more so good work GF

I bought some bullion today.

Can it happen in the next six months please. I want to move on.

What happened in Dublin is not coming to London to anything like the same degree. The currency will go first.

yes, I agree with this ... UK housing fell by 50% vs US$ (since bounced) ; it has fallen by 75% vs honest money ; crap areas have fallen by 35% vs pound ; But London SW , and presumably other nice areas too, mid-sized family homes are trading at or above 2007 levels, though they fell back in 2008 -9 . People in such areas have money/equity and good jobs so lending not a great problem. There is a lot of competition for homes when they come on the market as people want to live here. Same goes for higher end stuff. So if rates rise, we may see a pullback of 10 or even 20% , but a crash ... ain't going to happen imo. And if you're buying home who gives a toss about 10% correction?

This guy's asking to get flamed ... http://www.investmentu.com/2011/January/wh...r-gold-now.html

Yes, yes, yes ... are you sure you're a woman?

Thank you ...

GF - where're your house price in US$ and € charts? I can't find them

Funnily enough the said interviewer's kids go the same school as mine and are in the same class. Although I don't think he was the interviewer, just another pundit. His name is Chris Watling and he writes an economics newsletter Longview Economics. He likes gold.

Why not get some old junk coins - pennies or something - paint them silver and send them to yourself so he nicks them. Then he'll get at least very embarrassed if he tries to sell them.

Well, at least you found out now. And it only cost £50 or so BTW if you bought with a credit card and never had delivery then you shouldn't have to pay

Az, how can he have opened the front door? Is this the countryside where you leave everything open? BTW I met Vince Thurkettle the other day. Have you heard of him? A treasure hunter. Finally, in this mish mash of a post, Mish on silver - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...end+Analysis%29

No, it was 2005. GF you need to do a shorter-term chart too. 10 years or something

I see the 2008 sell-off in gold as 1974