hector
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Fresnillo / FRES.L, fnlpf - World's Top Silver Miner
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Sad to see this basically go back to my buy in price. It seems to be going through a period of 'adjustment' and is not a real threat to long term holder positions. Will probably add some if it goes to £6.xx. -
ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
I'm interested in knowing where you think the top of the move will happen? And yes let's celebrate and dance for now. For what was anticipated all along. -
Thanks for the reassurance DrB. One of the reasons I still hold is due to your holding and continued enthusiasm. I think the best strategy is to hold on until end of the year when gold should be definitely higher and McEwen has reported better full year on year production and further drill results. I believe 1.8 is currently the fair value so doesn't make sense to sell now. And that fair value is rising all the time.
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DrBubb's Diary - July 2019 Trading - v.126
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Indeed. Gold has gone through its correction when the Fed tightened last year. The Fed cannot tighten anymore and gold has broken out. As I said just before the breakout, that was the last we've seen of $1290 gold forever. It will never again go below that price. -
In mid February I wrote this: No reason why stocks should end up lower over the year if USD depreciates relative to assets. In fact all fiat currencies are depreciating rapidly and that is why stock markets the world over are rising despite the fundamentals being crappy. I'd say we will probably be still around these levels (after a lot of ranging/whipsawing) at the end of the year. Possibly in the UK stocks at least we will continue a general rise into July to reach the top of the monthly range and then come back down the rest of the year to either the middle or bottom of the range. (FTSE 6580 - 7770) I am using the month of July as a mental milestone, particularly for the UK markets.
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BTC has topped for now. Was a combination of altcoin capitulation back into BTC and new capital coming into BTC off the back of Libra. Now I expect the easy gains to be made by investing in the depressed altcoins. ETH/BTC ratio has strong support at 0.025 and with the sell pressure taken off it is expected to bounce back to range resistance at 0.035.
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DrBubb's Diary - June 2019 Trading - v.125
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
I see a small bounce at least for HK10. But silver is now falling again, and the extradition protests are not over. -
Still rising: BTC 12k ETH 340 I don't want to be harsh but a trader musn't deny reality. Crypto will have its place in the capital structure. He who has the dollar, makes the rules...?
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Bit of a long winded video, only watched the first 10 minutes. Generally it's on the right side (my side haha). They assert that the market settled on gold as sound money. As far as I'm aware of history there was a competition between silver and gold, but since gold was rarer it was easier to concentrate in fewer hands becoming the ultimate store of value. On the topic of rates, I think the US economy would be able to tolerate current levels and survive after the inevitable recession and bankruptcies. What I'm conjecturing is that they are going to loosen the dollar in order to cushion the debt problem in Europe, as the bankers have interests on both sides of the pond. In other words the American people get to shoulder some of the burden. Euro rates are surely stuck in the gutter. However, the BoE MPC has made noises about raising rates two times over the next two years, so I don't expect rate cutting from them. Hence I see a more buoyant sterling to support the currency in the event of a No deal Brexit shock. This is where to look for opportunities when the inevitable recession and market crashes hit as people default.
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Looks like this is now happening as was forecast back then. BTC >= 10,000 ETH >= 300 Zuckcoin was the catalyst, Carney lit the fuse...
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Hypothesis: US Dollar (and maybe EUR) will commence inflation (faster than usual) to bail out the Eurozone debt. Perhaps lasting for around a year, maybe 2. But I think the Fed will be able to avoid hyperinflation. The US economy is fundamentally stronger and sounder than the majority of the rest of the world. The banking cartel will sacrifice dollar strength in order to keep their other major currency, the Euro, from being destroyed by a catastrophic debt collapse coming later this year. Anecdotal evidence for this, are the long-term downtrends in the banking stocks of England. We also have known for some time that Deutsche Bank is insolvent. Draghi's statements this week supports this theory. The Eurozone has clearly failed in its recovery from the 2008-2009 crises despite very accommodative monetary policy. This in contrast to the resurgent and resilient US economy. It may be unwise to short the US stocks, if the inflation will run for some time. But it will probably be safer to short UK/Euro stocks, tempered by the fact that ECB may also commence inflation. Needless to say it will be safe to hold onto precious metals and perhaps increasingly, cryptos. A rising gold price may be one mechanism the ECB uses to purchase debt given its large gold holdings. Another play would be to short the Dollar index. It seems to be just beginning to tip over on the monthly. But if Draghi is signalling that he will simultaneously inflate the Euro, then that may be a limited play. Maybe long Cable only - people have been overly bearish on Sterling due to the Brexit fiasco but it will turn out to have been a storm in a teacup (we hope, haha). I do not believe that Sterling will be at all-time lows around the 31 October when we are due to leave the EU. Thoughts? opinions? Is this a sound, plausible analysis? I'm aware of the perils of being an armchair economist and pontificating, but it's important to conjecture what may be a major macro factor coming into play.
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DrBubb's Diary - June 2019 Trading - v.125
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Spy set to open all time high 296... Slack IPO today. Iran ready for war with US. Nearing the time again to buy puts? Maybe tomorrow or next week. Of course there is a risk it runs on higher for a little while... in that case 320-30 could be a suitable resistance. -
DrBubb's Diary - June 2019 Trading - v.125
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
The first Fed cut this year should trigger the huge breakout. Should arrive in July or latest September. ===== (following added in edit by Dr.B): TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2 : Acore : Fringe : : : : 3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN : BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d: 10d 5d / SLV-lv ===== -
ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
This stock should blast beyond 6 in this cycle. ===== Why not! / following added by DrB. in edit: pg13 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82: US$2.055 -was 0.16% of $1281 Gold // TPRFF is $2.42, 0.19% of $1277.6 Gold at 22-Apr.19 GCM (in US$) found support at the old high of 7.8% of GDXJ, has rally to virtually 10%, near High of 10.5% pg13 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82, $2.055 - & $1281 Gold price (0.16%), C$Gold was C$1715 (0.164%) Update: 4/22/19: C$3.23 v.$2.82 +14.5% in 2019 / 2-yr : 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm : Vs. GDXJ: $29.55 vs. $30.22 : - 2.22% Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntValue / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wt x12.2M 08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M 10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M 12/31/18: $2.82 x.733= $2.067 48.2M $99.6M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $154.0M /$1281: 120k/217: 0.554: $0.61=$7.44M 01/03/19: $3.18 x.741= $2.356 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1295: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.97=$11.8M 01/04/19: $3.15 x.747= $2.353 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1284: 130k/217: 0.599: $0.94=$11.5M 02/19/19: $4.42 x.757= $3.340 48.2M $161.M: $80.0 E : 02/?? $30? $211.0M /$1350: 156K/217: 0.720: $1.82=$22.2M 03/15/19: $3.71 x.750= $2.782 48.2M $134.M: $100.E*: 03/?? $50? $184.0M /$1296: 142k/223: 0.637: $1.41=$17.2M 04/22/19: $3.23 x.749= $2.420 48.2M $117.M: $98.5M : 04/30 $50? $165.5M/$1278: 129k/226: 0.573: $1.41=$9.32M -
DrBubb's Diary - June 2019 Trading - v.125
hector replied to drbubb's topic in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Something to bear in mind. The Bond Market Rubicon Has Been Crossed Yield curve inversion will probably lead to cut in Fed rates very soon. Traders in the foreign-exchange market have suffered an epic slump, losing money in each of the past four years, and seven out of the past eight, as measured by the Citi Parker Global Currency Index. Haha. FX is hard.