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HongKong Venturers
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About yhmo

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  • Birthday January 1

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    Hong Kong
  • Interests
    Believe in using solar panels in reducing carbon footprint in residential and commercial buildings.

    Believe in contiuous improvement in scientific research on increasing efficiencies in solar energy, particularly applicable for micro-power 5KW homes.
  1. Please watch out the Philippine Travel Tax at PHP 1,620 ... to be collected at Manila and Clark International airports. This amount is NOT paid when you buy your tickets online or through a call center. I recommend that you keep some cash at the end of the trip. Try NOT to use your credit card at the airports in case someone illegally use your credit card details to buy things online without your knowledge. Well. most people are very poor in the Philippines. Unethical behaviours are expected! Hope that you agree. If not, why not experience this yourself. Well, my good friend did have his credit card being swiped twice before. He got billed a lot of money that he did not spend.
  2. yhmo


    TOPIC TITLE: Do the past 5-year trends of GLD, SPY and UUP tell us the forthcoming trends? I am posting this topic as an amateur in the above captioned topic. Please pardon me if I got it all wrong. The purpose of my posting below is to invite your comments on my observations and questions on the trend chart shown below. You may find it easier to read the trend chart by copying and pasting onto Microsoft WORD, and zoom into the chart. My observations and questions: GLD and SPY ----------------- Please note that I use SPY instead of SPX because both GLD and SPY are ETFs. GLD (shown as candle sticks) is NOT behaving what I would expect last night on 17 May 2012 (Thursday) when SPY (shown as the brownish orange line) continues to decline after the incidence of JPMorgan’s saga and the Greece’s ongoing crisis in managing its economy. I expected that GLD would have continued to decline when SPY continued to drop last night! If we look back in mid-September 2008 on the trend chart below when Lehman Brothers was dissolved, GLD continued to decline with that of SPY. We all expect these trends to be normal when we expect the large market players were struggling to save their funds/investments by using their hedged GOLD starting from mid-September to late October 2008. Nevertheless, SPY trended in an opposite direction to the trend of GLD (called “opposite-direction trending”) starting from mid-February 2009 to mid-August 2009 approximately. This opposite trending between SPY and GLD puzzles me, which is similar to what I am observing since last night on 17 May 2012. WHY? Further, this opposite-direction trending between SPY and GLD was again shown from March to September 2011 approximately. Who can explain the above abnormalies? UUP ----- Ah! I find the trend line of UUP fascinating. If you look closely at the incremental movements in the UUP trend line as soon as Lehman Brothers’ saga was exposed in mid-September 2008 all the way to March 2009, and then from July or August 2011 up to now 17 May 2012, what facts do we have to explain the unusual UUP’s behaviours? The most important questions of all: What do you expect in the behaviours of big market players in the US and Europe in manipulating the buying and selling of USD (which is reflected in the UUP’s prices), GOLD (reflected in GLD), and US major stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, IBM, AMZN, etc. etc. today on Friday 18 May 2012, and the next two weeks? I will continue to pose interesting questions in the coming two weeks as a very small investor myself in gold shares. G.H.V.
  3. I have been lurking here again recently, and got interested in Silver and post the following: I recently opened an account with Thinkorswim, and found that I can only write covered calls and sell Puts with secured cash. Thus, I experimented with AGQ to see how to make money. This is what I did: On 21 NOV, I sold -1 AGQ DEC 11 50 Put @4.00 (AGQ=53.35, IV=101.24% Delta=-.032) On 21 NOV, I bought back +1 AGQ 50 Put @2.40 (AGQ=57.86 (up8.4%) IV=97.28% (lower), Delta=-0.24) I made a small gross profit of $160 by betting on AGQ going up, a drop in the Put’s implied volatility, and buying 50 Put back at 2.40. I could have taken more risk by buying the 50 Put later on 21 NOV, and made more profit. Welcome your comments.
  4. I saw an interesting artcle summaring the pressure on the economics of using palm oil as biodiesel: Title: Palm oil prices soar as Malaysia, Indonesia allocate 40% to biodiesel, 24 July 2006 Malaysia and Indonesia, numbers one and two in the world palm oil-producing league, have announced an agreement in which 40 percent of their crude palm oil output will be dedicated to the biodiesel industry. "Both countries agreed to commit a targeted amount of six million tonnes of crude palm oil each annually as feedstock for the production of biofuels and biodiesel," the Plantation Industries and Commodities ministry said in a statement yesterday. The announcement lifted the benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia up 3.3 percent to 1,591 ringgit (US$432) a tonne. The volumes more than doubled to 26,936 lots of 25 tonnes each from 12,887 lots traded on Wednesday. Other contracts were up between 29 and 54 ringgit. The statement said the decision was part of an agreement signed between the two nations. Industry analysts said the move could further boost edible-oil prices, making it expensive for both food and energy users to buy vegetable oils. "Palm oil is going to become expensive and out of reach for consumers in developing nations like India, China and Pakistan," said M. R. Chandran, an independent commodity consultant. "Palm oil will lose its attractiveness as a cheaper form of edible oil." Traders said companies setting up biodiesel plants had worked out the cost of palm oil at USD $434 a tonne to be viable for making biofuel. "The whole economics of palm as raw material for biofuel will change," said an official at a leading trading company. Malaysia's edible-oil industry says the government had approved 32 manufacturing licences, with annual output capacity of around 3 million tonnes of biodiesel, from 87 applications. Editorial comment: On 3rd July Malaysia announced they would no longer issue licenses to biodiesel manufacturers. On 21 July they announced 2 new 'Palm Oil Industry Clusters', enterprise zones intended to encourage palm oil down-stream investment. To this confused picture is added a suspicion that the moratorium on new biodiesel plants will mainly affect foreign applicants, leaving the field clear for domestic plantations owners and refiners (several of whom have announced their own biodesel plans). It seems likely the moratorium on new biodiesel plants will be selective rather than total, and so will not relieve the upward pressure on CPO prices after all. So pressure on palm oil prices continues, with $600 a ton looking likely. The current level of uncertainty surrounding prices and the industrial policies of producer countries means those in the market for a biodiesel factory must surely be considering feedstock other than palm oil. However, if calm is restored to the Middle East, if OPEC pumps harder and crude prices drop back towards $40 a barrel, biodiesel producers caught between rising feedstock costs on the one hand and falling petrolium prices on the other might decide to exit the biodiesel business and concentrate on their traditional activities of growing palm trees and crushing fruit. It might then be possible to pick up a biodiesel plant at a bargain-basement price. But any biodiesel maker that competes with the human food chain for their feedstock is susceptible to being squeezed from two directions. Companies that have more imaginative business models start to look prescient. D1 Oils' jatropha contract farming, GS CleanTech's chicken fat, and China Biodiesel's waste oil feedstock mean they can only be squeezed from one direction, not both. source: http://www.biofuelreview.com/content/view/299/2/ My own comment: Well, as EU has set a policy in the % use of biodiesel, the politicians might not have thought through the implication of effects on the human food of palm oil. Perhaps, some of the them might have profited by investing in the biodiesel sector before the policy was announced. Who knows?
  5. Hi guys, My friend has asked me to explore what we could make use of an energy plant called caragana in Inner Mongolia, China. This plant is common in Canada and Siberia as a wind break. Please see photos at the end of this webpage: http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/AGPC/doc/pasture...raganachina.htm Another website shows a comprehensive review of this plant in bio-mass usage: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$departme...nsf/all/eng9864 The potential to produce bioethanol from caragana is there. However, the above website suggested that there must be a high value by-product in order to make it profitable. Do you know anyone who is knowledgeable in this field and/or caragana? The deal here is to identify an existing process of turning caragana into energy. Bioethanol is one option. China will give tons of this plant free to an investor whatever the technology is. I am an intermediary working with my contact in China. Any pointers would be much appreciated. Thank you.