stunlee

Silver is just looking super bullish this morning, already up nearly a dollar on the day. If we don't see a sudden fall within ten minutes of the Comex opening we could easily reach 35 this week. Silver has also been correlating quite well with the euro recently, what looks to be the recent bottoming of the euro adds more power to the silver bulls.

Silver is now back above the long term trend line and is now looking super bullish, at least to my eyes. My favoured route would be a move up to the 25 day moving average at 31, a succesful retest of the trendline and then a continued bull move, up to around 35 by the end of March and a high of 43 to 45 this year. The apparent top of the US dollar would add more evidence of a big bullish move in the next few months.

Hey, you are a clever guy, you correctly warned against the over enthusiasm of the gold bugs earlier this year and I hope that you have made a lot of money from being correct and that others have followed your advice and made/not lost money. There are a lot of extremely clever and open-minded people on this site, but I don't think anyone else has taken these claims seriously, and quite a few have gently mocked them. Does that not say anything? Look, here is another Wilcock claim that is completely ridiculous. Apparently the Chinese rulers were dedicated to building railways throughout the US in the 1860's and sent their best railway builders to manage it. I have to wonder firstly, why they didn't actually build any railways in China beforehand, the first railway in China opening in 1876. And secondly, given that their were no railways in China, where did all the skilled Chinese railway engineers come from? Call me closed minded if you like, but I would rather follow documented proof and history, rather than someone making up unsubstantiated, logically ridiculous and easily proven false claims. I shan't write any more on this subject.

Of course, why didn't I think of that! Actually thinking about it more, if we are to take the journeys of Ferdinand Magellan as a base, he took three years to circumnavigate the world (admittedly a couple of centuries earlier and with inferior technology and smaller ships), four of his five ships failed to return and only 18 of the original 237 men made it back. If, as the article suggests these journeys were made monthly then it would suggest that there would have had to have been more forty or more of these giant treasure fleets, each of them coming back in a pathetic state and with thousands of crew having died. These Asian rulers would be spending colossal amounts of money merely to build these fleets and sending tens, even hundreds of thousands of men to their deaths, all in an attempt to give away their gold? And, much like the Portuguese explaration of the East Indies in the early 16th century, there would surely be evidence of trading posts and bases throughout South America and Africa such as Goa and Zanzibar to service the enormous numbers of ships coming through every month. I would be very interested as to why Mr. Wilcock is spending a lot of his time propagating these theories, but they are surely utter nonsense.

Now I am fairly open minded, I am aware of the voyages of Zheng He and his mighty fleet, I am prepared to accept that the Chinese might have "discovered" the US before the Europeans. I am sorry but I just find that completely implausible. The idea of huge fleets of Chinese junks, and they would need to be literally hundreds of ships to carry that much gold, the provisions and soldiers and warships needed to protect such a treasure, sailing all the way across the pacific ocean, around the south tip of Argentina and then through the pirate infested waters of the Caribbean to the US without a single mention of it any history book or contemporary source and without the Pirates, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Portuguese or the British trying to attack it is just ridiculous. The number of ships and men lost, operating thousands of miles away from friendly bases, and in just about the most dangerous part of the world for sailing ships without accurate navigation and maps and exposed to all kind of new and dangerous diseases would be appalling. Even in the early twentieth century such a voyage would be somewhat dangerous, look at the journey of the Russian fleet to participate in the Russo-Japanese war. And then these kind of trips were apparently done multiple times, by Asian rulers who are happily giving away colossal amounts of money and power with no apparent benefit to themselves apart from the secure knowledge that they would be playing a great part in influencing the global geopolitical situation in two or three hundred years time? Can you see how absurd it looks to someone without such an open mind?

Two reports released today. The Nationwide says prices are down in December but up 1 percent on the year. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Dec_2011.pdf Meanwhile the Land Registry says prices are up 0.3 percent in November. http://www.landreg.gov.uk/upload/documents/HPI_Report_Nov_11_ws13pm4.pdf And, barring a sudden rise in interest rates, this is how it will continue for years.

I have one question. Why do the central banks of the world do so much to surpress the price of gold when they have information about the true amount of gold, that if released, would cause the price of gold to fall by 50 percent or more overnight?

Some of the spreads at my local dealer are pretty wide, around 15 percent which when sales taxes are added on makes a very large difference indeed. I guess that the retailers have seen this kind of thing happen before and are not overly keen on letting too much of their stock go at low prices when they expect much higher prices in the future. A few hours later and suddenly silver looks very bullish indeed. I want to see a break above the previous trend line at around 28.2 and then a retest and then I will be confident in calling the bottom. The fundamentals for silver are in my opinion very bullish indeed, but the past couple of weeks should serve as a reminder not to ignore the stupidities of the market and the power of the central banks.

Yep, noticing the same thing here. One ounce Philarmonikers available at 24.60 euros but the larger coins are mostly unavailable. Those that are available have only fallen by about 6 percent in price in the last two weeks, despite the nearly twenty percent silver price fall in euro terms. Paper detaching from physical anyone?

Very true I would certainly consider myself a silver bull (at least in the medium term, the short term charts look absolutely horrible) and this move has certainly surprised me. Falling another couple of dollars would put my physical position underwater but that wouldn't really concern me too much. There are probably a few giggles to be had by going through this thread and checking some of the outlandish predictions made, the emotional reactions of some of the posters here make me think that we are already fairly late in the bull market. Well gold is continuing downwards and it looks as if silver will break through the previous low from the 26th of September, the next target for me would look to be the lower trendline from the 2008 to 2010 trend, currently at 24 dollars. I would be truely astonished if it did break that, and I think that the physical price of the metal would start to detach from the paper price, something I noticed beginning to happen a week or so ago. For what little it is worth, I think next year will see a low of 24-25 dollars, a high of around 45 dollars and we should break the famous 50 dollar mark sometime in mid 2013.

Yep, you are right ML. That old buy high sell low approach seems to be as popular as ever. I still think that if the paper market was to be pushed down towards into the low teens then anyone trying to buy physical metal would find out that it was suddenly not available at the dealers or only available at a considerable price above the spot price. Just taking a quick look at the website of my local dealer that process seems to have already started. A lot of the goods are listed as not being available and those that are available seem to be actually more expensive than they were a week ago when the silver price was three dollars higher (even accounting for the considerable fall in the Euro in the same time). I guess that there would start to be problems if it became apparent that the paper price had very little relation to the actual metal price, something that looks like it could be starting now.

This and the video posted by Errol are certainly both very interesting, I can't remember a time when the fundamentals for a commodity look so incredibly bullish and the technicals so bearish. I wonder if this kind of ultra-low call for silver shows that we are near the end of the eight month silver bear, in a similar way to the large number of articles in spring this year calling for 100 dollar silver hinted at the end of the bull market. Although the technicals on the daily and weekly charts do look terrible, I simply cannot see a fall to 11 dollars, the physical dealers would surely be cleaned out within days. For the meantime, I am happy to trade this beautiful range between 31 and 33 dollars. Long may that continue.

Well there you go, thankyou for providing a perfect example. What on earth possessed you to write such an arsey little post criticising someone you have never met? 5 internet win points for you. I was actually posing a serious question though, why does gold bring this kind of thing out in people? On my charts gold fell from 1920.75 to 1532.05, a fall of 20.24% A pleasant Sunday evening to you, I really cannot be bothered with an argument.

Oooh. I wouldn't go that far myself, but I know what you mean. I would consider myself to be if not a full blown goldbug, at least a gold bull and have observed that gold is treated almost as an article of religious faith. For a lot of goldbugs, anyone who questions the gold bull market is a heretic and anytime that gold falls, it is down to manipulation by some kind of evil empire. Now there was one very clear manipulation made just before the swiss franc devaluation on the 6th of September and then other suspicious looking patters in the days after that,but now any kind of fall is treated as a kind of manifest insult. I think that gold is undervalued, I think it will probably go above 2000 dollars next year and I think it will fall to 1550 before that happens. But why is gold particularly regarded with quasi-religious zeal?

A very interesting post from Turd Ferguson today in which he states that the gold lease rate has gone negative again, exactly as happened in mid September prior to the big precious metals beatdown. Turd is preparing for gold to fall to around 1550 and silver to about 25. I particularly agree with him about silver, the daily chart looks absolutely terrible. "IF 1705 gets taken out overnight or tomorrow (which appears highly likely), buyers will pull bids and gold will rapidly drop toward 1680. IF 1680 fails, gold could fall all the way to 1550." He is also looking at issues to do with the MF-ing Global bankruptcy, and reports that Iran was able to hijack a US drone. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3107/be-wary

But if you are able to finance the very real debt for the long term at a much cheaper rate than the equivalent rent then it is likely to be a good investement. The Bank of England kept the base rates at 0.5% again today. How little of a surprise it was to the markets, and how little of a problem they have with it is shown by the pound rising nearly half a cent against the dollar in the following hour of trading. There is certainly something for the HPCers to celebrate though, houses in the rest of the UK are now only slightly more expensive than they were eight years ago.

That is a very interesting fact. Has the price increased significantly due to the increase in oil costs? Silver was selling for under 5 dollars an ounce ten years ago. For what it is worth I could certainly see a fall to around 24 or 25 dollars, the daily and weekly charts look absolutely horrible. Whether physical would be available at that price is another question.

Yes, they have been utterly ridiculous this year but are they really such a bad thing for the public? The manipulation has allowed people so many physical buying opportunities at good prices. The only people it really affects are the leveraged speculators but if they keep very disciplined there are also huge opportunities. Aside from a few losses made during the big end of September smackdown, I have made a lot of money from silver this year. Silver manipulation is a good thing for the small time investor and the disciplined trader. Long may it continue!

Oh. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2011.pdf "• House prices increased by 0.4% in November • Price of a typical home is 1.6% higher than one year ago" After the fall yesterday from the Government statistics I had hoped for a price fall of around 5 percent for this winter but even that is looking unlikely. When one considers that renting is likely twice the price, or more, of the mortgage repayments then one has lost around 4 percent by not owning. In super low interest rate land, prices need to be falling by at least 4 percent a year for renting to make sense. And they are not falling.

Good news. The latest land registry figures show a 0.9 percent fall for October. That these were sales arranged during the summer suggests that there could be further falls for the rest of the year. If prices continue to fall at 3.2 percent a year then there is probably little difference in the cost between renting and buying at the moment.

Yep agreed. I guess that UK houses will fall to around 70 ounces of gold at the bottom, or around 1500 ounces of silver, I seem to remember HPC banning discussion of gold until recently as well. I had 90 percent of my life savings in yen at the time so saw a greater crash, peak to trough of around 60 percent or so in yen terms. I have to say that UK houses still looked expensive even then to me, 'tis an ugly situation.

Yep I was a deflationist and in the winter of 2008 was expecting a HPC of 50 to 60 percent. Then the QE came and then continued and then continued more with apparently no ill effects, indeed the pound strengthened considerably between winter 2008 and summer 2009 and I finally gave up at the end of the summer. Honestly, the mods and owners of HPC should be ashamed of themselves. By banning anyone who even suggests otherwise they have created a kind of crazed HPC cargo cult. If the crash doesn't happen, as any kind of sensible analysis of reality suggests it won't, then they will have played a part in messing up the lives of thousands of people by talking people out of buying. Even if there are large falls in the future, still most people would have been better off buying in 2003-5 or 2009-2010 as they could have been paying off their mortgage. I think that we need some kind of acronym JD. Something like Wanted and Expected a HPC but Surrendered to QE. WEHPCSQE.

Well he nearly got it right! I think that he could prove very useful as a counter indicator, he certainly got the time right of the next big rise in gold, albeit he got the direction 180 degrees wrong. It is also a very interesting look at the human mindset. Once people get something in their head, they will very rarely change their mind. I am no great fan of Keynes, but he did ask "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" I bet good old Wan will be continually calling the gold top for the next decade.

Here is explicit confirmation from Martin Weale of the Bank of England that they will do anything to stop house prices falling. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15888358 "It is designed to put more cash into the UK financial system, to reduce long-term borrowing costs, and to push up the value of assets such as shares and house prices." Given that they can print as much money as they want, and that there is apparently no pressure to raise interest rates it would take a brave man to bet against the Bank of England. Here is another quote from the article. "But nevertheless, unless the economic situation improves, there is likely to be a strong case for extending the asset purchase programme after the current one comes to an end." These cretins have convinced themselves that they can print their way to recovery, the printing will not stop short of a hyper-inflation. You can go on deluding yourself that the population will fall 70 percent and keep on waiting for a mythical house price crash. In the mean time someone who bought in 2004 and has been paying off their mortgage quickly has probably paid at least a third off by now and will be mortage free before 2020. Will there still be people on HPC then?

Yep I agree with your analysis, my fingers are twitching on the buy button as well, though I am still waiting for the spot price to touch 1650 or so. I noticed that your charts for GLD are somewhat different to my charts for XAUUSD. Am I right in thinking that GLD is an ETF? The GLD price seems to be consistently lower than the spot price. Do you find it easier to trade than spot? Do the two correlate very strongly?