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FriarN

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About FriarN

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  1. I am going to update this BLUE CHIP Paper Portfolio, to see if it outperformed the PSEI index BLUE Portfolio PortB. : # shs : 07/15: value : Pct. : 09/25 : value : % chg. CASH : ——— : ——— : P1,060 : 1.1%: -- -- -- : P1,060 : AGI : 5,500 : P6.00: 33,000 : 33.0%: P7.06: 38,830: +17.7% - DrB’s pick AC. : 45 : 732.0 : 32,940 : 32.9%: 692.5: 31,163: - 5.40% SMC. : 330 : 100.0: 33,000 : 33.0%: P98.5: 32,505: - 1.50% ===== ==========> : 7/15: 100,000: ====>: 9/25: 102,499: +2.50%, thnx to AGI = PSEI Index> : 7/15: 6,017 : ====>: 9/25 : 5,839 : - 2.96% Only AGI was up. That was DrBubb's suggestion. It is hard to beat the market averages. In this case by buying an undervalue stock when it was oversold, it was possible for the paper portfolio to beat the index by 5.5%
  2. HOW MANY WARRANTS? = 17.71 Million @ C$2.75 + CGC Shares: 2,222,222 special warrants sold at an issue price of $2.25 (1.11Mn wts) 2,222,222 new shares + 1,111,111 new warrants, with strike price at $2.75. Expiry: until July 29, 2025. Caldas Gold may accelerate the expiry date of the Warrants after July 29, 2023 in the event that the closing price of the Common Shares on the TSX Venture Exchange (or such other exchange on which the Common Shares may principally trade at such time) is greater than CA$2.75 per share for a period of 20 consecutive trading days + CGC Gold-linked Debs: $83.1 Million with 200 wts (at C$2.75 strike) per $1,000 Face / (so US$83.1 Million = 16.6Mn wts (footnote on CL's hldg.: 30k + 300k x200= 60k : 90k x$3= C$270k)
  3. Will CGC BREAKOUT? Or slide... Now that the placement shares sold at $2.25 -wts, start trading? CGC group: YTD.: 10d / CGC: $2.85 (45.4%), GCM: $6.28, wtB: $4.15 - @ 9.25.2020 GCM group: YTD.: 10d / GCM: $6.28, wtB: $4.15, CGC: $2.85: GLDX: $3.65, ESV.h: $0.56, WA: $0.155 @ 9.24.20  (Adding ESV in late Sept., "Group" valuations may look like this): Gran Colombia related Companies & Enterprise Value of Deposit - (4/16/2020 framework) @ 9/24/2020 Company ————— (symbol) $ Price: shsOS: MktCap. : Gcm%: $-Value (%GCM): 02/24: vs. Old Peak Val. Caldas Gold Corp. (CGC.t. ) : C$2.85: 106.M: $302.1M: x57% : $172.2M: (44.3%): C$2.00: $212.0M, $157M Gold X Mining Corp. (GLDX.v): C$3.65: 58.9M: $215.0M: x21% : $45.15M: (11.6%): C$2.34: $137.8M, $ 29M "Denarius Silver". (ESV.h.v): C$0.56: 71.2M: $ 39.9M: x47% : $ 18.75M: ( 4.8%): C $0,00: $. 0.00M, $ 00M Western Atlas Res. (WA.v. ) : C$.155: 80.0M: $ 12.4M: x20% : $. 2.48M: ( 0.6%): C$.085: $ 6.80M, $ 1.4M === : Four GCM co’s ====== : =====: =====: $569.4M: ==== : $238.6M: (61.4%) =====> : ======> $187M (44%) Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$6.28: 61.9M : $388.7M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%) --------- vs. 4/16/2020 (GCM.t): C$5.70: 60.8M : $346.6M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%) Wow. Over 60% (ie 61.4%) of GCM's MktCap is covered by investments in these four companies RATIO: CGC to GCM looks like a "SELL" at about 50% - Now 45%
  4. Special Wts, Will be split & trading on Monday (Sep.28th) Caldas Gold files final prospectus for offering / 2020-09-21 18:20 ET - News Release Mr. Mike Davies reports CALDAS GOLD FILES SHORT FORM PROSPECTUS IN CONNECTION WITH OFFERING OF SPECIAL WARRANTS Caldas Gold Corp. has filed and obtained a receipt for a final short form prospectus in each of the provinces of Canada, except Quebec, in connection with its $50-million bought deal private placement of 22,222,222 special warrants, completed on July 29, 2020. The prospectus qualifies for the distribution 22,222,222 common shares and 22,222,222 common share purchase warrants, issuable for no additional consideration, upon the deemed exercise of the special warrants. The offering was conducted by a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Scotiabank and Canaccord Genuity Corp. As a result of obtaining the receipt, the special warrants shall be deemed to be exercised and the common shares and warrants underlying the special warrants will be issued, effective at 5 p.m. Toronto time on Monday, Sept. 28, 2020.
  5. GCM group: YTD.: 10d / GCM: $6.28, wtB: $4.15, CGC: $2.85: GLDX: $3.65, ESV.h: $0.56, WA: $0.155 @ 9.24.20 (Adding ESV in late Sept., "Group" valuations may look like this): Gran Colombia related Companies & Enterprise Value of Deposit - (4/16/2020 framework) @ 9/24/2020 Company ————— (symbol) $ Price: shsOS: MktCap. : Gcm%: $-Value (%GCM): 02/24: vs. Old Peak Val. Caldas Gold Corp. (CGC.t. ) : C$2.85: 106.M: $302.1M: x57% : $172.2M: (44.3%): C$2.00: $212.0M, $157M Gold X Mining Corp. (GLDX.v): C$3.65: 58.9M: $215.0M: x21% : $45.15M: (11.6%): C$2.34: $137.8M, $ 29M "Denarius Silver". (ESV.h.v): C$0.56: 71.2M: $ 39.9M: x47% : $ 18.75M: ( 4.8%): C $0,00: $. 0.00M, $ 00M Western Atlas Res. (WA.v. ) : C$.155: 80.0M: $ 12.4M: x20% : $. 2.48M: ( 0.6%): C$.085: $ 6.80M, $ 1.4M === : Four GCM co’s ====== : =====: =====: $569.4M: ==== : $238.6M: (61.4%) =====> : ======> $187M (44%) Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$6.28: 61.9M : $388.7M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%) --------- vs. 4/16/2020 (GCM.t): C$5.70: 60.8M : $346.6M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%) Wow. Over 60% (ie 61.4%) of GCM's MktCap is covered by investments in these four companies
  6. WILD.t vs DIS / Disney ... update: 10d / C$1.48 vs $124 : ratio- 1.19% Ratio: C$1.48 vs $124 = 1.19% ... 1.5% x $124, would be: C$1.86
  7. WILD TIMES for the old stock this week... as the news flow gets better WILD.t .... 5-yr: 2-yr: 10d: Last; $1.48 +0.17, +13.0% : 10d: Last; $1.48 +0.17 NEWS Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline 2020-09-25 08:30 C:WILD 1.31 In the News Globe says Wildbrain seen to have "turned the corner" 2020-09-22 18:53 C:WILD 1.15 SEDAR Annual Information Form SEDAR Annual Information Form 2020-09-22 18:53 C:WILD 1.15 SEDAR Audited Annual Financial Statements SEDAR Audited Annual Financial Statements 2020-09-22 18:39 C:WILD 1.15 News Release Wildbrain loses $236-million in fiscal 2020 2020-09-22 18:36 C:WILD 1.15 SEDAR MD & A SEDAR MD & A Improve Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Positive Free Cash Flow of $9.3 million in Q4 2020 vs Free Cash Flow of $4.1 million in Q4 2019. Fiscal 2020 positive Free Cash Flow of $27.1 million vs Free Cash Flow of $10.4 million in Fiscal 2019. Net leverage ratio3 was 5.40x at June 30, 2020 vs 5.92x at June 30, 2019. In Fiscal 2021, we will continue to create premium kids' content with priorities focused on growing key brands, monetizing our large audience on Wildbrain Spark viewership and improving cash flow and the balance sheet. Financial Highlights Financial Highlights (in millions of Cdn$) Three Months ended June 30, Year ended June 30, 2020 2019 2020 2019 Revenue $92.9 $108.8 $425.6 $439.8 Gross Margin $39.6 $48.0 $187.8 $186.8 Gross Margin (%) 43% 44% 44% 42% Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Wildbrain $18.7 $20.2 $81.8 $79.6 Net Income (Loss) attributable to Wildbrain $4.0 $(62.8) $(236.0) $(101.5) Basic Earnings (Loss) per Share $0.02 $(0.47) $(1.51) $(0.75) Free Cash Flow $9.3 $4.1 $27.1 $10.4 Q4 2020 revenue was $92.9 million compared with $108.8 million in the same prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by declines at Wildbrain Spark, resulting from changes in "Made for Kids" content policy made by YouTube and the negative advertising impacts of COVID-19, as well as Consumer Products-Owned revenue, which were also impacted by COVID-19. These declines were partially offset by higher Production revenue. Fiscal 2020 revenue was down 3% to $425.6 million vs $439.8 million in Fiscal 2019, primarily due to decreases at Wildbrain Spark and in our Consumer Products-Owned business. === Globe says Wildbrain seen to have "turned the corner" 2020-09-25 08:30 ET - In the News The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Sept. 25, edition that RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds says Wildbrain's fourth quarter results brought "a turning point on visibility." The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. McReynolds removed the "speculative risk" qualifier from his "sector perform" rating. He reiterated his $1.50 share target, which exceeds the $1.18 consensus. Mr. McReynolds says in a note: "We believe the company has turned the corner on a period plagued by execution challenges, a sooner-than-expected shift in content demand and a levered balance sheet following major content investment and M&A. We continue to have greater confidence in execution under the new management team and see the potential for upside in the shares in a successful turnaround and de-levering scenario. While we remain patient for more attractive and/or timely entry points balancing the lagged impacts of growth initiatives with ongoing COVID-19 headwinds and still high leverage, we are encouraged by the progress to-date." Elsewhere, CIBC World Markets analyst Robert Bek upgraded Wildbrain to "neutral" from "underperformer" with a $1.25 share target.
  8. Charts ... update: 10d/ Last: I own the GCM.wtB and shares & wts in CGC (thru the recent placement)
  9. Re: Bluestone (BSR) valuation @1.92 bsr. ... update : vs-gcm : looks about as cheap as gcm, based on these figures... Compare with GCM: trading at how many years production, at $1500/oz gold BSR : 143.2M x$1.92= $275M: 146k oz x$1500= $219M ($ 579: $84.5M)= $134M: +++ : +Capex $230M= $505M: 146k oz x$1500= $219M ($ 579: $84.5M)= $134M: 3.8 yrs GCM: 61.92M x$6.46= $400M: 220k oz x$1500= $330M ($1000: $220.M)= $110M: 3.6 yrs
  10. Gran Colombia Gold to spin out Zancudo project to ESV 2020-09-24 17:10 ET - News Release Zancudo comprises a historical silver-gold mine (the Independencia mine) located in the Middle Cauca gold belt. Gran Colombia acquired Zancudo in 2010 and completed a 14,000-metre drilling program carried out in 2011 and 2012. + ESV will issue 27 million common shares to Gran Colombia + 6.67 Million shares: at a price of 45 cents per subscription receipt. Gran Colombia intends to subscribe for $3-million of the concurrent financing. = 33.67 Million x0.45= $15.15m ESV chart : soon to be: Denarius Silver Mr. Mike Davies of Gran Colombia reports GRAN COLOMBIA ANNOUNCES LETTER OF INTENT TO SPIN OUT ITS ZANCUDO PROJECT Gran Colombia Gold Corp. has entered into a letter of intent dated effective Sept. 23, 2020, with ESV Resources Ltd. to spin out its interest in the Zancudo project to ESV. Gran Colombia will also subscribe for $3-million of subscription receipts in a non-brokered private placement being completed concurrently by ESV as described further herein. Serafino Iacono, executive chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the news, stated: "In light of the bullish outlook for silver, we see the acquisition of an investment in ESV as a tremendous opportunity to participate in a new vehicle that is turning its attention to becoming a silver-focused company looking to offer its shareholders exposure and leverage to the precious metal. We also see the spinout of our interest in the Zancudo project as an opportunity to create value for our shareholders in this undervalued silver-gold asset. We will be providing in-country operational expertise to ESV to advance their projects in Colombia, including an exploration program planned for the Guia Antigua project following completion of the transactions and financing by ESV." Zancudo Project spinout The Zancudo project consists of a 1,052-hectare mining concession area located in the Titiribi mining district in Antioquia, Colombia, about 27 kilometres southwest of Medellin. Zancudo comprises a historical silver-gold mine (the Independencia mine) located in the Middle Cauca gold belt. Gran Colombia acquired Zancudo in 2010 and completed a 14,000-metre drilling program carried out in 2011 and 2012. In March 2017, Gran Colombia signed an option agreement with Iamgold Corp. for the exploration and potential purchase of an interest by Iamgold in Zancudo. Under the agreement, Iamgold was granted an option to acquire an initial undivided 65-per-cent interest in Zancudo by incurring an aggregate of $10-million (U.S.) of mineral exploration expenditures over a six-year period, subject to meeting specified annual work commitments during this period. From 2017 through 2019, Iamgold has completed a total of approximately 16,224 metres of drilling at Zancudo and has incurred over $4-million (U.S.) of its exploration commitment. However, due to COVID-19, Iamgold has suspended its drilling program thus far in 2020. Iamgold was also granted an additional option to acquire a further 5-per-cent undivided interest, for an aggregate 70-per-cent undivided interest in Zancudo, by completing a feasibility study within three years after exercising the first option. Upon exercise of the first option or the second option, as the case may be, the parties will form a joint venture to hold Zancudo, to advance the exploration and, if feasible, to advance the development and mining of any commercially exploitable orebody. Under the terms of the spin out transaction, ESV will issue 27 million common shares to Gran Colombia in exchange for its interest in the Zancudo project. In addition to any escrow restrictions imposed by the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange, all common shares issued to Gran Colombia will be subject to a voluntary pooling arrangement from which one-quarter of the shares will be released on each of Dec. 28, 2020, March 27, 2021, June 27, 2021, and Sept. 27, 2021. ESV has also agreed to be bound by the terms of the option agreement with Iamgold. ESV private placement ESV has announced that it has also signed a letter of intent with 1255269 B.C. Ltd., a company not related to Gran Colombia or any insiders of Gran Colombia, to concurrently acquire all of the outstanding share capital of the Guia Antigua vendor. The Guia Antigua vendor owns the Guia Antigua project, which encompasses the exploration, development and mining rights to a 386-hectare area located in the eastern part of Gran Colombia's Segovia mining title focused on the high-grade silver-gold Guia Antigua vein, which falls outside the areas associated with Gran Colombia's mining operations and exploration activities. As a condition to completing the acquisitions of both the Zancudo and Guia Antigua projects, ESV has announced that it intends to complete a non-brokered private placement financing to raise up to $7-million through the issuance of up to 15,555,000 subscription receipts of the Guia Antigua vendor at a price of 45 cents per subscription receipt. Gran Colombia intends to subscribe for $3-million of the concurrent financing. > MORE > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C:ESV-2967273&symbol=ESV&region=C
  11. CA:GCX / Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (TSX) ... fr.2019: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d/ Last: 0.17 +0.01 xx === Announced August 31, 2020 Granite Creek proposed to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Copper North by way of plan of arrangement. ▪ Exchange Ratio: Granite Creek will issue 1 share for every 2.5 shares of Copper North based on a closing price on August 28, 2020 of $0.05 for Copper North and $0.15 for Granite Creek this represents a 20% premium to the share price of Copper North. ▪ Share structure the resulting company will have approximately 84 million shares issued and a market cap of 12-15 million based on Sept 1 share price. ▪ Closing deal is subject to approval by the shareholders of Copper North and TSX Venture, expected to close 4th quarter of 2020. Granite Creek Copper is a Canadian exploration company focused on the southern portion of the high-grade Minto Copper District of Canada’s Yukon Territory. On August 31, 2020, Granite Creek announced it had entered into an agreement pursuant to which the Company will acquire all outstanding common shares of neighbouring Copper North Mining through a plan of arrangement. Upon completion, Granite Creek will control a land package of approximately 176 square kilometres, including the PEA-stage Carmacks Copper Project and the highly prospective Stu Copper-Gold Project on trend with Pembridge Resources’ high-grade Minto Copper-Gold-Silver Mine. > https://www.gcxcopper.com/
  12. Store closures, digital pivot costs push Jollibee deeper in the red www.philstar.com › business › 2020/08/05 › store-clos... Prinz Magtulis (Philstar.com) - August 5, 2020 - 10:05am ... As a result of the push for more food deliveries, Jollibee said it is shutting down 255 branches and ... / 2 / Philippine fast food giant Jollibee loses US$240 million and ... sea.mashable.com › Article › Culture Aug 6, 2020 - Crunching Jollibee's numbers. ... The fast food giant will also be opening 338 more stores in 2020 and aims to make Smashburger and The ...
  13. If this story is fully true, the slimming down of POGOs will be a huge deal for the PHL Property Market Chart >> EROSION is showing (from viber chat): "PRICE EROSION: Maybe the "POGO EXODUS" story is fully true. Property stocks are beginning to show erosion. MEG slid back under P3.00, down 2.7% to P2.91" Pogo exodus seen to empty more than a tenth of Metro Manila offices, condo units Joey Bondoc, senior manager of property advisory firm Colliers Research, told the Inquirer on Wednesday that “in case all Pogos leave, we will see a double-digit office vacancy in Metro Manila.” “As of the second quarter of 2020, Pogos covered an estimated 11 percent of total leasable office space in Metro Manila, or about 1.34 million square meters,” Bondoc said. “In the second quarter, office vacancy in Metro Manila stood at 5 percent. Hence, if all Pogos leave, we will see a 16-percent office vacancy—leased space by Pogos plus vacancy as of the second quarter,” he said. Bondoc said the last time that Metro Manila suffered double-digit vacancy in office space was when the Asian financial crisis left 12 percent of offices vacant in 1999 while their lease rates dropped by 16 percent. ”We are seeing the impact of slower Pogo absorption on lease rates,” Bondoc said. . . . He said as a result of “dampened demand for condominiums,” his company expects developers to be “more aggressive in offering bigger discounts and offer more flexible payment terms for pre-selling residential projects.” Discounts could range from 10 to 15 percent of total contract price. “In the secondary market, which covers completed units, Colliers is projecting average prices to soften by 13.8 percent in 2020,” Bondoc said. For Bondoc, “business districts that mainly cater to Pogo firms are likely to feel the pinch for the remainder of 2020.” Read more: https://business.inquirer.net/307986/pogo-exodus-seen-to-empty-more-than-a-tenth-of-metro-manila-offices-condo-units#ixzz6YwpaPdX2
  14. Jollibee has a US quote (JBFCF) JBFCF vs MCD, JFC.ph... fr. 9.30.2010: 3.1.2013: 5yrW: 2yr: 1yr: YTD: 10d/ $2.805 / $215= 1.30% JBFCF ... 5yr JBFCF -to MCD ... ratio: 1.31%... Low was near 1.2% x php50= 60% Valuations Stock-: Price: MkCap: E.P.Sh.: PE-R: BVal: %-BV: $Debt: EntV.: EV/Eb RR’s: EV/ RR MCD -: 215.0: 165.6B: $ 6.33: 35.3: (12.7): -N/A-: $51.9B 214.B: 23.5 38.7k $5,53M JBFCF: 2.805: 3.05Bn: $0.137: 47.9: $0.80: 214%: N/A.B: 4.04B: 0.36 1200: $3.36M
  15. MCD/ JFC Pairs: "Got started last night... with some near perfect execution"... - (picked up from DrBubb's Viber chat) The idea of trading MCD/ McDonalds against JFC/ Jollibee came to me last week, and when I looked into it, I found there is presently a great set-up, so I jumped in to my first trade last night, starting with the Short side in MCD puts MCD / McDonalds Corp*... 10d : JFC-10d : MCD: $214.90, JFC: P138.10, 64.3% MCD MCD/ JFC PAIRS: Got started last night... With some near perfect execution... BOT Oct.220 Puts Paid average of $5.90... As MCD rallied to $219.68, near my ideal target of $220 (Top of Gap) Then MCD slid with market, closing at $214.97. The MCD puts closed at 8.30-8.60= 8.45 Mid. (Puts are already up 43%, while I was sleeping) Nicely in profit. Will aim sell half at $12 if poss. And keep the other half as a “free” hedge, $220 x1cts = $22,000 x 48.6= Php 1.07m MCD: P1.07M /138 = 7,750 JFC shares to buy. MCD ... YTD : $215. Next big support level is $200, with some minor support at $210 *McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer various food products and beverages, as well as breakfast menu. As of December 31, 2019, the company operated 38,695 restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois. : MktCap: $215 x 744M= $160 Bn / 38,695 RR;s = $4.13 Million per RR JFC’s MktCap: P138 , JBFCF: $2.805 x1.11 B= $3.11 Bn /1,200 RR= $2.59M per RR
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