drminky

I don't see any problem with trading personally. As long as you keep yourself covered with a hefty core position. We are pretty much on this forum all in agreement that gold is going much much higher in the long term. So whats the harm some of the more aggressive of us in keeping say 10 - 20% of your PM holdings as 'tradeable', with the aim of selling when gold becomes overbought in the short term, in order to gain more ounces when gold becomes short-term oversold? Just like GF and many on here, I've been watching this market for around 4 years now, as been steadily accumulating over that time, and have learnt a lot (through a lot of mistakes mostly) and got a much better instinct for calling big swings in the market. Since we are all more or less in agreement that gold is still in a secular bull market, can we not discuss such things without been shunned by the over-zealous? Isn't that why we all defected from HPC in the first place? Surely we are not going to make the same mistake and let 'consensus think' stifle any debate here? That would be a great shame..

Gold better blast through $1000 decisively, or else we got a massive double-top in $US with a huge negative divergence on our hands.. That will be one hell of a party invite to all the gold shorters lurking in the background.. Still, whatever gets me more gold cheaper with my fiat paper can only be a good thing in the long run!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/0218.html Gold, Is the Future Still Bright or Fading? For those who haven't seen todays wrapup. Excellent analysis.

Well, amongst all this bullishness I see, I have to say, I've been busy selling into this strength today. Never my core physical holdings, but taking profits on some gold stocks, and lightening up on a little goldmoney silver. Its well possible we might have a little further to run, but I'll stick make money on my core positions if thats the case. Ditto if it really is 'different this time' and this is the beginning of a run on all fiat currencies.. Does anyone else feel we are just a little overextended at this point?

??? Indymac bank not ring a bell?

Oh they are preparing alright! Army Unit to Deploy in October for Domestic Operations Beginning in October, the Army plans to station an active unit inside the United States for the first time to serve as an on-call federal response in times of emergency. The 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team has spent thirty-five of the last sixty months in Iraq, but now the unit is training for domestic operations. The unit will soon be under the day-to-day control of US Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command. The Army Times reports this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to Northern Command. The paper says the Army unit may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control. The soldiers are learning to use so-called nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals and crowds. When the currency has no buying power anymore, yet the country is full of guns, the guns just might BECOME the buying power!

I agree IAG looks cheap, but part of that is the market discounting the permitting problems and trouble they've got maintaining production levels.. For a value play right now, at $1.50 Northgate looks enticing.. Been bullied around lately by the NSS brigade methinks.. look at that 4 million share sell order at 30% below market value last thing on a friday!!! Just a little suspicious!..

And just like clockwork, bring down oil prices and the voters will come.. The most rigged game in town.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Todays market wrapup by Gary Dorsch on FSN is interesting. Seems to suggest its the Saudis and the Kuwaitis pumping petrodollars and oil into the US to bring down oil prices, in order to influence the US election and get their preferred (hawkish) republican candidate into the whitehouse. If that's the case, we can expect gold/oil/commodities to remain under pressure until the election, then watch for the possible HUGE reversal, as this gets unwound.. It would certainly explain the La-La-goldilocks-topsy-turvy market in the US right now, that seems to have thrown all TA out the window. I mean the OVERSOLD readings on the HUI right now FFS!.. and no bounce to speak of!! Wasn't nothing supposed to go up or down in a straight line?

Most notably the bond market!! Look at those below inflation yields! Imagine if there was a run on bonds and that money spilled over into commodities instead! It'd be hyperinflationary carnage! That's why its been so neccessary to smack down commodities these last few days. Gotta keep 30 years of inflation (actually more like 70 years worth) bottled up in paper, so it doesn't turn and run to real things.. We should actually be glad that the market hasn't woken up yet. Buys us more time to prepare! Keep using that overvalued paper to buy real things, while our paper wages can still buy things at all!

If they can create a massive inflation in zimbabwe, where the (non-black market) economy has basically stopped functioning altogether, what makes you think they cannot create an inflation in the US? The bailout/nationalisation of Fannie and Freddie, for example, is simply swapping a bond default risk for an inflation risk. It is simply not true that a stalling economy will automatically mean deflation. It was wrong in the 70s, and unless there is a drastic change of course, it will be wrong again this time..

Exactly, I find it simply mind boggling that the market action of the last few months has given ZERO discount to the possibility of inflationary intervention, yet all we ever see from Government action is exactly that.. every time!

Could well be. At least now we know why silver was brutally attacked last thing on friday. The PPT will have to be out in force today to smash down G&S. A run on the dollar must be prevented at all costs to keep up the spin that this is somehow GOOD news!

And what return would you have got if you'd invested in the Nasdaq in 2000? Or in property in mid-2007? I'd wager a fair bet nobody on this forum was holding much in the way of investment gold before 2000..

Even IF Obama was to appoint Volcker (and that's a big IF, considering his tax-and-spend policies), I'm not sure there's anthing even Volcker could do to save the system now. 10 years ago perhaps, but I'm not sure now. The US is essentially checkmated. If they lower rates, or keep this low, they get runaway inflation. If they raise, they break the entire system. Either way, the people lose in the end..

Great analysis on FS today on the $US bounce by Chris Pupluva: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2008/0903.html Question is, do we see further weakness in gold and commodities due to this cyclical inflation moderation, or is it all discounted into the price already? Also interesting how he points out that ultimately, this dollar bounce will be self-defeating and kick out the last remaining supports of the US economy.. Do all the US traders who are chanting 'U.S.A' as the rest of the world is dragged into recession malaise realise that 'non-decoupling' works in reverse too? ie the rest of the world dragging the US down further into the pit?

What I don't understand is that since the beginning of the correction in oil, oil has been on average falling faster than gold. This should be somewhat bullish for the energy-hungry gold miners, as their margins improve, but why has the HUI:GOLD ratio basically mirrored the OIL:GOLD ratio and fallen off a cliff? That makes no sense to me..

Wasn't there some murmurings out of OPEC that they would likely defend $100 a barrel with supply cutbacks? If so, any spike low below that could be short lived indeed.. that should help put a floor on gold prices, you'd hope, but as mental and irrational as the markets are right now, nothing would surprise me anymore

LOL Bloomberg still fishing for reasons the Euro is falling against the dollar. Yesterday it was because of speculation the ECB would cut rates Then this morning its reported 'German Producer-Price Inflation Reaches 27-Year High', so scratch that idea Then its on speculation German investor confidence will hit record low Then its reported 'German Investor Confidence Rises More Than Forecast', so scratch that idea Now its apparently on speculation that German Growth is set to slow And don't get me started on the 'speculation that the US will raise rates' Why can't they just come clean and admit there's NO APPARENT REASON for anything like the UNPRECEDENTED rally in the dollar, which, given the negative real interest rates and the state of freddie and frannie is beyond any rhyme or reason!

Shorting Treasuries? Sounds like a good idea fundamentally, but one risky play in the short term, considering this topsy-turvy funny-money world where dollar is rallying, not to mention the stock market looks set to tank bigtime! ..but the easiest way is perhaps through the ETFs try the AMEX:TBT for example Proshares Trust Ultrashort 20+ year Treasury Fund http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.

A 'flight to safety' to the eye of the storm? ..or a bunch of pigs rushing in to feed at the fed discount window trough?

Yes, Bernanke and the central bankers talk a lot about managing inflation expectations. ..not so much about managing INFLATION though.. So, because of ( A ) a great slowing down/recession in the western economies, the market sees reduced demand for oil and commodities going forward ( B ) So low oil and commodities ( B ) makes the stock market rally, led by financials and consumer discretionary ( C ) Simple Logic: if A = B and B = C, then it follows A = C So we are to believe a great downturn in demand and consumption in western economies = higher stockmarkets, improvement in discretionary spending and financial sector profits? These guys are GENIUS! its like herding sheep, really..

Of course, one must also factor in the fact that the Central Banks are going to use this massive correction in Commodities and PMs as a sign they've 'won' against inflation and inflation expectations, and a sign they can go on throwing ever vaster sums of printed money at every problem that comes their way with no consequences.. until the next inflation wave hits, that is..

IF Elliot Wave counts are to be believed, we are now witnessing the final wave 5 of this downmove. If that indeed proves to be correct, we are very near the bottom and by Monday we should be expecting to see a start of a recovery. That means NOW is the time to be picking up the bloodied and broken Mining stocks.. And for those who are doubting the integrity of the bull market in gold (not that I am), I have one piece of advice for you. SHORT the stockmarket and financials with everything you got! Because if the move in gold and commodities is valid, that is signalling deflation, and the stockmarket is setting itself up for the SPILL OF THE CENTURY. You gotta ask yourself, if the euro is suddenly so weak on the back of crumbling european economic prospects, why the hell are their stockmarkets rallying?

Welcome to the "new" world. 40 is the new 20. White is the new black. Up is the new down. Bad is the new good. Losses are the new profits. Bear is the new bull. Socialism is the new Capitalism. Insanity is the new Common Sense." make sense now?