HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted October 15, 2010 Report Share Posted October 15, 2010 i have been posting my erratic musings on selected threads and forums for a while now and thought it would be a good time to collate them somewhere where i can look back in a few years and see how wrong i was! here is a recent post copied from 24k: Is the current PM bull run nearly over? You'll excuse me for starting a new thread rather than 'tagging' this onto either the Silver or $USD thread; however, I would like to generate discussion on a cross-section of topics, with the intention of recognising that we are approaching a 'junction' in this recent PM bull run, that could end quite soon and not be repeated for a while...... $USD. The DIX is rapidly approaching what looks to be significant support (see here & here). Now whilst, I think there will be obvious support here in the short-term, I am torn between whether this will prove major support. I would tentatively side with NW's analysis. I say 'tentatively' because, there are conflicting elements that support a substantial bounce in the $USD. Silver. I recently watched Mike Maloney say that he had not become 'attached' to silver and would sell when the time is right. Well, I chuckled to myself because I would find it hard to envisage ever selling all of my silver stash! Point being, I have to acknowledge the 'emotional' influences on my judgement versus a clinical scientific approach :roll: . To this end, I think the current silver bull-run is just about done. Pix. Recently posted a chart on gei which shows a silver target of approx. $30, this opinion is shared by James Turk. However, I do not see this myself :think: , basically, through my own TA, I think that the trend of the overhead resistance was altered significantly during the 08 crash. Similarly, I have looked at key horizontal support/resistance lines in silver and these point to a top of just under $26 v.soon. Who is 'right' on the finer detail of where the current silver bull will top is not that important to me - if it goes to $30 in this run I will be v. happy!. However, my quandary is that whereas I can see how the obvious support in the $USD may be breached, my own analysis points to a current silver top coinciding with a $USD low. QE. PMN posted a very good article recently which is hard to ignore. To quote form the article: The U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in charge of the world’s reserve currency has gone completely and totally insane. Every time the stock market is down 2 points some maniac academic with a printing press delivers a speech about how much money they are going to print, basically daring anyone to short or sell the market. No one is smart enough to know how much QE is priced into the market, is it $500B? $1 trillion? $3 trillion? No one knows, but what we all do know is that the Fed through its non-stop yapping has now set up the ultimate moral hazard in financial markets. It doesn’t matter if all of the economic data miraculously comes in extraordinarily bullish over the next three weeks. The markets have put the Fed into the biggest box they have ever been in. They must do QE2 at this point and they probably have to do it big. The problem is, with the equity market up at the levels it is I don’t think ANY amount of QE2 will cause a rally. In fact, this might be the biggest “sell the news” event in the history of the stock market. If you are smart you will take appropriate actions while you can and sell to someone with less of a clue (believe me there are plenty out there). PS. pix, i have added my own interpretation how the 'old' OH resistance can be met with the new resistance here (assuming it does hit the 'old' OH resistance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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