davehk Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 === Hong Kong property Outlook - and Data Base === : Data-backup-no.341 "I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top... in the 2015-17 time frame" - post #4-Feb.2011 : update : HKprops === Last (announced 01/06/17): $14,595 psf - 0.51% in the latest week. Could bottom below $10,000 psf in 2019-20 =================================== Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi! I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market and how the new government anti-speculative measures will impact the market long term. I'm looking at buying in Tung Chung at the moment but am cautious in being sucked into buying high in the cycle. Tung Chung has many positives (low vacancy/ new hospital/ macau bridge/ new airport construction projects, etc) but I guess there's risks to the world economy that may change things.Caribbean Coast centadata link -- http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htmIn other posts on this site (especially UK discussions), I have seen various diagrams depicting the way and timing of cycles. Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle? Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.Look forward to generating fresh HK discussion here and also contributing further. Thanks!= = =DATABANK Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : ThArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.: fanling Numb.: ( #1) ( #2,4): (---- #6) : (--- #7) : (--- #8) : (-- #9) / (--- #7) (--- #8): (- #12) : (-- #13): (--#14) : (--#-3) : (--#21) : (-#-5) ==== . . PEAK: 146.92 148.61:(09/13) Chg-: -6.55% : -6.43% : PEAK: 146.92 148.61: (09/13) : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PkC/CHtChg-: -8.92% : -11.7% v02/07 : --------- : --------- : -------- / --------: - 5.03%: -------- : --------- : --------- : -------:-14.41%: -12.2% 04/24: 129.87 130.06: 13,963 : 19,398 : 25,866 : 25.798 /11,212: 11,858: 14,382 : 14,990 : 18,728 : 6,543 : 12,318 : 6,707 : 8,510 : 04/17: 127.96 128.52: 13,884 : 19,289 : 25,720 : 25,653 /11,220: 11,836: 14,295 : 15,047 : 18,615 : 6,283 : 12,691 : 6,679 : 8,274 :04/10: 04/03: 127.84 128.42: 15,544 : 19,288 : 25,719 : 25,652 /11,547: 11,786: 14,274 : 15,025 : 18,588 : 5,901 : 11,875 : 6,812 : 8,965 : 03/27: 127.46 127.55: 15,579 : 19,331 : 25,776 : 25,709 /11,670: 11,938: 14,348 : 16,176 : 21,403 : 5,570 : 11,482 : 6,826 : 8,487 :03/20: 000.00 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00.000: 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 0,000 : 03/13: 127.50 127.73: 16,715 : 19,279 : 25,707 : 25,639 /10,988: 11,902: 14,131 : 16,376 : 21,293 : 5,836 : 12,472 : 6,788 : 8,075 :03/06: 130.30 130.06: 16,838 : 19,421 : 25,896 : 25,828 /11,048: 12,168: 14,383 : 16,521 : 21,483 : 6,559 : 12,471 : 6,894 : 8,504 :02/28: 130.?? 02/21: 130.77 130.93: 16,811 : 19,390 : 25,855 : 25,787 /11,130: 12,553: 14,376 : 14,661 : 21,471 : 6,223 : 12,910 : 6,680 : 8,333 : 02/14: 130.58 130.79: 16,801 : 19,378 : 25,839 : 25,771 /11,140: 12,565: 14,371 : 14,657 : 21,465 : 6,243 : 12,928 : 6,849 : 8,046 : 02/07: 131.01 131.29: 16,807 : 19.384 : 25,848 : 25,780 /11,141: 12,566: 14,377 : 14,662 : 21,473 : 6,421 : 12,941 : 6,877 : 8,288 : 01/31: 131.95 132.35: 16,872 : 19,460 : 25,948 : 25,880 /11,117: 12,108: 14,380 : 14,666 : 21,478 : 6,808 : 12,779 : 7,138 : 8,890 : 01/24: 132.90 134.03: 16,859 : 19,444 : 25,927 : 25,860 /12,215: 12,931: 15,247 : 15,488 : 21,506 : 6,833 : 12,975 : 7,180 : 9,069 : 01/17: 134.95 136.44: 16,896 : 19,487 : 25,985 : 25,917 /12,746: 12,214: 15,362 : 15,604 : 21,667 : 6,848 : 13,585 : 7,539 : 9,081 :01/10: 01/03: 135.82 136.54: 17,033 : 19,646 : 26,196 : 26,127 /12,641: 13,207 : 15,458 : 16,541 : 21,803 : 6,454 : 12,283 : 7,542 : 9,42112/27: 135.89 136.60: 17,047 : 19,662 : 26,217 : 26.149 /12,429: 12,985 : 15,387 : 16,465 : 21,703 : 6,487 : 12,243 : 7,568 : 9,43612/20: 136.8612/13: 137.30 139.05: 17,050 : 19,664 : 26,220 : 26,152 /12,511: 13,071 : 15,369 : 16,446 : 21,678 : 6,524 : 12,721 : 7,650 : 12/06: 138.22 140.11: 17,061 : 19,827 : 26,239 : 26,171 /12,513: 13,072 : 15,381 : 16,458 : 21,694 : 6,526 : 13,674 : 7,63611/29: 139.82 141.57: 17,125 : 19,901 : 26,338 : 26,269 /12,527: 12,979 : 15,443 : 16,525 : 21,782 : 6,856 : 13,731 : 6,856 :11/22: 140.27 141.80: 11/15: 141.13 142.74: 17,179 : 19,963 : 26,419 : 26,350 /13,228: 13,449 : 16,612 : 21,896 : 21,896 : 6,850 : 13,840 : 7,686 :11/08: 142.14 143.62: 11/01: 141.76 142.96: 17,226 : 20,018 : 26,493 : 26,423 /13,219: 13,002 : 15,506 : 16,592 : 21,871 : 6,675 : 14,476 : 7,662 :10/25: 142.98 144.05: 17,315 : 20,121 : 26,629 : 26,559 /13,171: 13,391 : 15,603 : 17,933 : 22,008 : 7,047 : 13,947 : 7,749 :10/18: 144.33 145.54: 17,339 : 20,150 : 26,667 : 26,597 /13,281: 13,503 : 15,625 : 17,959 : 22,039 : 7,035 : 13,997 : 7,778 :10/11: 144.61 146.10: 16,123 : 20,129 : 26,640 : 23,026 /13,117: 13,337 : 15,555 : 17,878 : 21,940 : 7,050 : 13,989 : 7,746 :10/04: 146.45 148.22: 16,168 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,179: 13,397 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 7,062 : 15,181 : 7,773 :09/27: 146.01 147.61: 16,173 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,265: 13,484 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,514 : 15,101 : 7,772 :09/20: 146.67 148.39: 16,180 : 20,201 : 26,735 : 23,107 /13,241: 13,203 : 15,628 : 17,962 : 21,183 : 6,508 : 15,134 : 7,817 :09/13: 146.92 148.61: 16,182 : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PEAK : =====09/06: 146.76 148.27: 16,196 : 20,220 : 26,760 : 23,129 /13,055: 13,368 : 15,696 : 18,040 : 21,275 : 7,076 : 14,937 : 7,727 :08/30: 146.78 148.27: 16,199 : 20,223 : 26,764 : 23,133 /12,963: 13,273 : 15,667 : 18,007 : 21,236 : 7,577 : 14,923 : 7,708 : 08/23: 145.45 146.83: 16,169 : 20,187 : 26,716 : 23,092 /13,084: 13,487 : 15,682 : 18,024 : 21,257 : 6,719 : 14,335 :08/16: 144.84 147.09: 15,530 : 19,999 : 26,467 : 22,877 /13,128: 13,533 : 15,601 : 17,930 : 21,146 : 6,647 : 14,309 :08/09: 144.29 146.25: 15,545 : 20,019 : 26,494 : 22,890 /13,038: 13,556 : 15,581 : 19,024 : 21,120 : 7,247 : 14,268 :08/02: 146.07 147.91: 15,671 : 20,181 : 26,709 : 23,085 /13,474: 13,569 : 15,647 : 17,583 : 21,209 : 7,022 : 15,186 : 07/26: 145.48 147.41: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,594 : 14,956 :07/19: 143.32 144.96:07/12: 142.62 144.57: 15,591 : 19,942 : 26,391 : 22,811 /13,022: 13,344 : 15,651 : 17,464 : 21,067 : 7,073 : 14,183 : 06/28: 000.00 000.00: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,656 : 14,243 :06/07: 143.31 144.54: 15,493 : 20,014 : 25,251 : 22,894 /12,820: 12,965 : 16,454 : 17,515 : 22,361 : 6,500 : 14,315 : 05/31: 141.96 143.40: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,958 : 14,356 :05/24: 140.33 141.79:05/17: 141.30 142.33:05/10: 141.37 142.68: 16,540 : 19,897 : 24,380 : 22,761 /12,969: 12,893 : 16,610 : 17,121 : 22,153 : 6,155 : 13,883 : 05/03: 141.46 143.28: 16,452 : 19,792 : 24,251 : 22,640 /12,845: 13,366 : 16,569 : 16,679 : 25,687 : 6,975 : 14,409 : 04/26: 141.22 140.98: 15,525 : 19,924 : 24,413 : 22,792 /12,721: 13,315 : 16,558 : 16,625 : 22,813 : 6,260 : 14,347 : 04/19: 140.04 141.27: 15,497 : 19,890 : 24,370 : 22,752 /12,664: 13,255 : 16,503 : 16,608 : 22,737 : 6,591 : 14,228 : 04/12: 141.60 143.12: 15,507 : 19,902 : 24,386 : 22,766 /12,623: 13,614 : 16,591 : 16,697 : 22,848 : 6,941 : 14,240 :04/05: 142.36 143.90: 15,526 : 19,927 : 24,416 : 22,794 /12,599: 13,336 : 15,210 : 16,742 : 22,910 : 7,005 : 14,997 :03/29: 139.70 140.95: 15,432 : 19,807 : 24,269 : 22,657 /12,651: 12,994 : 14,335 : 16,578 : 22,658 : 6,984 : 13,906 :03/22: 140.05 141.81: 15,403 : 19,768 : 24,222 : 22,613 /12,622: 12,950 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,626 : 7,012 : 14,485 :03/15: 139.03 140.70: 15,381 : 19,740 : 24,187 : 22,581 /12,624: 12,951 : 14,280 : 16,514 : 22,598 : 7,008 : 13,363 : 03/08: 138.80 140.46: 15,315 : 19,656 : 24,084 : 22,485 /12,689: 13,019 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,627 : 6,965 : 13,663 :03/01: 137.12 138.67: 15,638 : 19,619 : 24,039 : 22,442 /12,437: 12,761 : 14,187 : 16,406 : 22,450 : 6,883 : 13,630 :02/22: 136.20 137.34: 15,679 : 19,670 : 24.101 : 22,500 /12,641: 11,792 : 14,180 : 16,398 : 22,439 : 6,573 : 13,319 : 02/15: 137.20 138.52: 15,672 : 19,661 : 24,091 : 22,491 /12,640: 11,791 : 14,193 : 16,412 : 22,459 : 6,570 : 13,932 : 02/08: 136.64 137.46: 15,719 : 19,719 : 24,161 : 22,557 /11,447: 12,821 : 14,244 : 16,473 : 22,541 : 6,255 : 13,515 : 02/01: 136.35 138.01: 15,557 : 19,517 : 23,914 : 22,325 /11,533: 12,649 : 14,197 : 16,146 : 23,227 : 6,692 : 13,945 : 01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 : 01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 : 01/11: 133.64 135.35: 15,570 : 19,532 : 24,875 : 22,343 /11,333: 12,465 : 14,030 : 17,331 : 21,891 : 6,145 : 12,554 01/03: 133.34 134.43: 15,556 : 19,515 : 24,853 : 22,323 /11,234: 12,546 : 13,953 : 15,674 : 21,770 : 6,538 : 12,883 : st.2015 12/28: 132.45 133.50: 15,491 : 19,434 : 24,750 : 22,230 /11,083: 12,582 : 13,947 : 15,883 : 21,760 : 6,141 : 13,301 : 12/21: 132.69 133.76: 15,524 : 19,476 : 24,803 : 22,279 /11,155: 12,664 : 13,973 : 15,913 : 21,801 : 6,160 : 13,504 : 12/14: 132.81 133.92: 15,516 : 19,465 : 24,790 : 22,267 /11,134: 12,640 : 13,976 : 15,916 : 21,805 : 6,534 : 12,264 : 12/07: 131.61 132.65: 15,470 : 19,408 : 24,716 : 22,200 /11,731: 12,334 : 13,879 : 15,805 : 21,654 : 6,681 : 14,032 : 11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 : 19,379 : 24,679 : 22,167 /11,650: 12,430 : 13,910 : 15,841 : 21,703 : 6,275 : 12,678 11/23: 130.16 131.47: 15,423 : 19,355 : 24,650 : 22,140 /11,599: 11,952 : 13,862 : 15,787 : 21,628 : 6,247 : 11,960 11/16: 129.61 130.95: 15,343 : 19,249 : 24,514 : 22,018 /11,444: 11,793 : 13,796 : 15,712 : 21,525 : 6,157 : 12,397 11/09: 129.69 130.55: 15,443 : 19,373 : 24,673 : 22,162 /11,428: 11,793 : 13,833 : 15,688 : 21,582 : 6,368 : 12,111 11/02: 129.40 130.11: 15,425 : 19,351 : 24,644 : 22,136 /11,564: 11,934 : 13,883 : 16,349 : 21,661 : 6,205 : 11,801 10/26: 129.39 130.04: 15,510 : 19,410 : 25,681 : 22,203 /11,460: 12,308 : 14,534 : 16,313 : 21,613 : 6,356 : 12,668 10/19: 129.38 130.11: 15,503 : 19,385 : 25,648 : 22,174 /11,438: 12,156 : 14,520 : 16,297 : 21,592 : 6,356 : 12,668 10/12: 129.83 130.46: 15,545 : 19,437 : 25,717 : 22,233 /11,539: 11,673 : 14,573 : 16,356 : 21,671 : 6,274 : 13,178 10/05: 127.65 128.40: 15,423 : 19,350 : 25,602 : 24,326 /11,773: 12,151 : 14,254 : 16,243 : 21,520 : 5,943 : 12,368 09/28: 128.14 128.33: 15,414 : 19,337 : 25,584 : 24,310 /11,687: 11,807 : 14,297 : 16,292 : 21,585 : 6,346 : 12,705 09/21: 127.46 128.06: 15,362 : 19,272 : 25,498 : 24,228 /11,712: 11,780 : 14,240 : 16,226 : 21,498 : 6,028 : 12,711 09/14: 126.80 127.51: 15,331 : 19,234 : 25,448 : 24,180 /11,652: 11,720 : 14,192 : 16,171 : 21,425 : 6,048 : 12,669 09/07: 126.14 126.59: 15,307 : 19,203 : 25,407 : 24,142 /11,463: 11,827 : 14,221 : 16,205 : 21,470 : 5,979 : 11,985 08/31: 126.94 127.33: 15,374 : 19,288 : 25,519 : 24,248 /11,282: 11,775 : 13,831 : 16,210 : 21,478 : 6,076 : 12,612 08/24: 126.20 126.64: 13,664 : 19,235 : 25,449 : 24,182 /11,227: 11,960 : 14,562 : 16,206 : 21,472 : 5,855 : 12,268 08/17: 125.31 125.59: 14,534 : 19,208 : 25,414 : 24,148 /11,036: 11,900 : 14,531 : 16,172 : 21,426 : 5,842 : 12,530 08/10: 125.66 125.64: 14,552 : 19,230 : 25,443 : 24,175 /11,143: 11,871 : 14,557 : 16,200 : 21,464 : 5,870 : 12,540 08/03: 124.00 124.22: 14.174 : 19,101 : 23,273 : 24,013 /11,036: 11,966 : 14,555 : 15,188 : 21,306 : 5,809 : 12,404 07/27: 123.54 124.24: 14,125 : 19,035 : 25,186 : 23,931 /11,119: 11,707 : 14,532 : 15,381 : 21,271 : 5,810 : 11,552 07/20: 123.20 123.70: 14,148 : 19,065 : 25,225 : 23,968 /10,995: 11,647 : 14,379 : 15,343 : 21,218 : 6,325 : 11,768 07/13: 123.36 123.87: 14,140 : 19,055 : 25,211 : 23,956 /11.009: 11,661 : 14,386 : 15,350 : 21,228 : 6,313 : 12,468 07/06: 123.32 123.71: 14,176 : 19,103 : 25,276 : 24,017 /11.017: 11,670 : 14,398 : 15,363 : 21,245 : 6,100 : 12,413 06/29: 121.19 121.42: 14,044 : 18,925 : 25,040 : 23,793 /10,490: 11,560 : 13,875 : 14,279 : 21,119 : 6,081 : 12,134 06/22: 121.16 121.12: 14,072 : 18,963 : 25,090 : 23,841 /10,526: 11,891 : 13,912 : 14,317 : 21,176 : 5,953 : 12,13906/15: 119.89 119.81: 14,073 : 18,964 : 25,091 : 23,842 /10,602: 11,865 : 13,904 : 14,309 : 21,163 : 5,645 : 11,719 06/08: 119.23 119.11: 14,041 : 18,922 : 23,789 : 23,789 /10,950: 11,771 : 13,864 : 14,267 : 21,103 : 5,630 : 11,724 06/01: 118.37 118.04: 13,237 : 19,155 : 24,962 : 23,718 /10,748: 11,356 : 13,789 : 14,274 : 22,134 : 5,592 : 11,294 05/25: 119.07 118.64: 13,747 : 19,239 : 25,073 : 23,823 /10,624: 11,594 : 13,192 : 15,379 : 22,987 : 5,603 : 11,149 05/18: 118.56 117.75: 13,729 : 19,215 : 25,041 : 23,794 /10,373: 11,319 : 13,124 : 17,042 : 22,871 : 5,947 : 11,21905/11: 118.86 117.90: 13,716 : 19,196 : 20,016 : 23,770 /10,361: 11,246 : 13,127 : 17,044 : 22,874 : 5,653 : 11,34605/04: 118.12 117.22: 13,742 : 19,232 : 25,062 : 23,814 /10,286: 11,120 : 13,069 : 16,969 : 22,773 : 5,713 : 11,24804/27: 118.40 117.57: 13,708 : 19,186 : 23,880 : 23,757 /10,189: 11,148 : 13,036 : 16,927 : 22,717 : 5,660 : 12,592 04/20: 118.31 117.41: 13,721 : 19,204 : 23,903 : 23,780 /10,206: 11,167 : 13,040 : 16,932 : 22,723 : 5,786 : 12,523 04/13: 119.04 117.94: 13,754 : 19,250 : 23,960 : 23,836 /10,291: 11,260 : 13,109 : 17,021 : 22,843 : 5,627 : 12,587 04/06: 118.82 117.99: 13,702 : 19,177 : 23,869 : 23,746 /10,254: 11,421 : 13,066 : 15,442 : 22,769 : 5,698 : 12,555 03/30: 117.22 116.40: 13,695 : 19,167 : 23,856 : 23,734 /10,342: 11,405 : 12,450 : 15,732 : 22,687 : 5,695 : 11,392 03/23: 118.42 117.73: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,901 : 23,778 /10,407: 11,478 : 12,487 : 15,779 : 22,754 : 5,484 : 11,681 03/16: 118.25 117.60: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,902 : 23,779 /10,405: 11,475 : 12,478 : 15,768 : 22,738 : 5,453 : 11,316 03/09: 117.18 116.29: 13,727 : 19,212 : 23,913 : 23,789 /10,439: 11,513 : 12,479 : 15,769 : 22,739 : 5,596 : 11,295 03/02: 118.02 117.12: 13,705 : 19,182 : 23,875 : 23,752 /10,379: 11,446 : 12,905 : 15,774 : 22,747 : 5,787 : 12,011 02/23: 117.77 116.91: 13,694 : 19,166 : 23,855 : 23,732 /10,513: 11,594 : 12,941 : 15,910 : 21,563 : 5,758 : 11,892 02/16: 117.59 116.52: 13,697 : 19,170 : 23,860 : 23,737 /10,575: 11,663 : 12,943 : 15,912 : 21,567 : 5,800 : 11,004 02/09: 118.08 117.34: 13,747 : 19,239 : 23,946 : 23,823 /10,543: 11,627 : 13,772 : 15,920 : 21,577 : 5,796 : 11,016 02/02: 118.31 117.32: 13,732 : 19,218 : 23,920 : 23,797 /10,474: 11,552 : 13,779 : 17,536 : 21,588 : 5,785 : 11,410 01/26: 117.56 116.47: 14,122 : 19,229 : 23,240 : 23,811 /10,128: 11,262 : 13,670 : 17,397 : 21,418 : 5,809 : 10,552 01/19: 118.20 117.19: 14,441 : 19,225 : 23,236 : 23,806 /10,207: 11,350 : 13,710 : 17,449 : 21,481 : 5,854 : 11,317 01/12: 117.71 116.65: 14,391 : 19,159 : 23,155 : 23,724 /10,222: 11,367 : 13,703 : 17,440 : 21,470 : 5,698 : 11,331 01/05: 118.94 118.08: 14,377 : 19,139 : 23,132 : 23,700 /10,482: 11,839 : 13,703 : 17,710 : 21,650 : 5,820 : 11,409 st.2014 Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32% 12/29: Prices / NetSF : 17,519 : 24,292 : 29,616 : 28,444 /14,397: 16,586 : 17,758 : 23,636 : 29,001 : 7,734 : 12,524 12/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 : 19,180 : 23,181 : 23,750 /10,783: 12,325 : 13,926 : 17,849 : 21,820 : 5,768 : 10,936 12/22: 118.95 117.86: 14,427 : 19,207 : 23,213 : 23,782 /10,575: 12,086 : 13,868 : 17,774 : 21,728 : 5,801 : 10,965 12/15: 118.61 117.49: 14,431 : 19,212 : 23,219 : 23,789 /10,441: 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627 12/08: 118.96 118.16: 13,247 : 19,816 : 23,177 : 23,746 /10,543: 12,050 : 13,280 : 16,816 : 21,662 : 5,796 : 10,712 12/01: 119.53 118.56: 13,311 : 19,911 : 23,288 : 23,859 /10,601: 12,116 : 13,518 : 16,875 : 21,739 : 5,792 : 10,786 11/24: 120.39 119.64: 13,672 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,499: 12,000 : 13,485 : 16,834 : 21.979 : 5,961 : 10,864 11/17: 120.13 119.39: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,295 : 23,867 /10,481: 11,979 : 13,469 : 16,814 : 21,954 : 5,795 : 11,986 11/10: 119.93 119.16: 12,706 : 19,904 : 23,280 : 23,851 /10,494: 11,994 : 13,471 : 16,817 : 21,957 : 5,816 : 11,696 11/03: 120.72 120.03: 12,730 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,896 /10,454: 11,949 : 13,485 : 17,051 : 21,980 : 5,984 : 11,872 10/27: 119.50 118.67: 12,717 : 19,920 : 23,299 : 23,871 /10,576: 11,958 : 13,468 : 17,029 : 21,339 : 5,768 : 10,869 10/20: 120.08 119.41: 12,718 : 19,921 : 23,301 : 23,871 /10,597: 11,982 : 13,477 : 17,040 : 21,353 : 6,039 : 11,709 10/13: 119.87 119.11: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,296 : 23,868 /10,514: 11,603 : 13,757 : 17,006 : 21,620 : 5,995 ; 11,741 10/06: 119.83 118.97: 12,707 : 19,905 : 23,281 : 23,853 //9,989 : 11,647 : 13,779 : 17,034 : 22,341 : 5,980 : 11,986 09/29: 120.00 119.37: 12,691 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,821 /10,051 : 11,719 : 13,787 : 17,043 : 22,353 : 6,004 : 11,950 09/22: 121.08 120.61: 12,783 : 20,024 : 23,421 : 23,996 /10,039 : 11,706 : 14,348 : 16,502 : 21,352 : 6,267 : 12,453 09/15: 120.84 120.39: 12,779 : 20,018 : 23,413 : 23,988 /10,035 : 11,701 : 14,336 : 16,489 : 20,664 : 6,291 : 12,45809/08: 121.94 121.32: 12,816 : 20,076 : 23,841 : 20,076 /10,014 : 11,463 : 14,379 : 17,234 : 21,115 : 6,303 : 12,48909/01: 120.86 120.44: 12,669 : 19,845 : 23,211 : 23,781 /10,046 : 11,858 : 13,777 : 17,202 : 21,076 : 6,329 : 12,48408/25: 119.85 119.17: 12,697 : 19,889 : 23,263 : 23,834 /10,018 : 11,826 : 13,759 : 17,179 : 21,047 : 5,686 : 11,85308/18: 119.79 119.54: 12,631 : 19,787 : 23,143 : 23,711 /10,007 : 11,813 : 13,722 : 15,069 : 20,993 : 5,686 : 11,75108/11: 119.30 118.69: 12,661 : 19,833 : 23,197 : 23,766 // 9,934 : 11,062 : 14,795 : 15,059 : 20,980 : 5,343 : 11,78108/04: 120.41 119.74: 12,684 : 19,869 : 23,239 : 23,809 /10,159 : 11,312 : 14,931 : 15,198 : 21,172 : 5,935 : 11,88007/28: 120.95 120.29: 13,445 : 19,903 : 23,279 : 23,850 /10,076 : 11,850 : 14,920 : 15,186 : 22,183 : 6,021 : 12,00107/21: 120.61 120.36: 13,374 : 19,799 : 23,157 : 23,725 /10,101 : 11,880 : 14,410 : 15,136 : 22,110 : 6,059 : 11,55707/14: 120.14 119.82: 13,366 : 19,786 : 23,142 : 23,710 /10,136 : 11,921 : 14,401 : 15,126 : 21,910 : 6,054 : 10,99807/07: 119.69 119.11: 13,387 : 19,818 : 23,180 : 23,749 /10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 : 10,46406/30: 121.88 121.58: 13,502 : 19,987 : 23,377 : 23,950 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,02106/23: 121.22 120.64: 13,416 : 19,861 : 23,229 : 23,800 /10,019 : 11,783 : 14,413 : 16,129 : 21,927 : 6,320 : 12,16206/16: 119.96 118.69: 13,454 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,045 : 11,813 : 14,449 : 16,186 : 21,983 : 5,949 : 11,62206/09: 120.74 119.57: 13,470 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,895 /10,072 : 11,845 : 14,463 : 16,186 : 22,004 : 6,360 : 12,25606/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 /10,251 : 11,947 : 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 : 6,435 : 12,00905/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 /10,026 : 11,649 : 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 : 6,130 : 11,84705/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 // 9,971 : 11,585 : 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 : 5,883 : 11,91205/12: 118.58 117.61: 16,066 : 19,825 : 23,188 : 23,758 // 9,981 : 11,597 : 13,752 : 15,021 : 21,852 : 6,032 : 11,77205/05: 118.51 117.60: 16,089 : 19,853 : 24,180 : 23,791 /10,564 : 11,268 : 13,716 : 14,983 : 21,795 : 5,973 : 11,32604/28: 118.84 118.08: 16,008 : 19,754 : 24,060 : 23,672 /10,673 : 12,150 : 13,755 : 15,024 : 21,857 : 5,877 : 11,71004/21: 118.71 117.70: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712 /10,676 : 12,158 : 13,775 : 16,117 : 21,888 : 5,750 : 11,87804/14: 120.12 119.35: 16,052 : 19,807 : 24,124 : 23,736 /11,207 : 12,198 : 13,807 : 16,155 : 21,939 : 5,795 : 11,93604/07: 121.83 121.29: 16,080 : 19,843 : 24,168 : 23,779 /11,373 : 12,379 : 13,891 : 16,253 : 22,072 : 6,174 : 12,00803/31: 123.01 122.22: 16,163 : 19,945 : 24,292 : 23,900 /11,419 : 12,430 : 13,956 : 16,329 : 22,176 : 6,160 : 12,13103/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,15903/17: 123.66 122.98: 16,180 : 19,966 : 24,318 : 23,926 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,30203/10: 122.09 121.41: 16,128 : 19,901 : 24,239 : 23,848 /11,413 : 12,423 : 13,916 : 16,283 : 22,114 : 6,420 : 11,51903/03: 121.95 121.27: 15,168 : 19,889 : 24,224 : 23,834 /10,549 : 12,383 : 13,374 : 16,263 : 22,087 : 6,403 : 11,93402/24: 121.64 120.97: 14,242 : 19,941 : 24,287 : 23,896 /10,917 : 12,147 : 13,168 : 16,227 : 22,037 : 6,325 : 11,93902/17: 121.58 120.27: 14,241 : 19,940 : 24,286 : 23,894 /10,894 : 11,901 : 13,212 : 16,667 : 22,112 : 6,586 : 12,02202/10: 121.73 120.41: 14,280 : 19,994 : 24,352 : 23,960 /10,889 : 11,896 : 13,211 : 16,666 : 22,111 : 6,350 : 11,80502/03: 120.66 119.40: 13,692 : 19,900 : 24,237 : 23,847 /10,547 : 12,114 : 15,331 : 16,609 : 22,036 : 6,215 : 12,30901/27: 119.13 117.60: 15,144 : 19,818 : 24,138 : 23,749 /10,670 : 11,039 : 15,262 : 16,685 : 21,937 : 6,336 : 12,14901/20: 118.38 116.61: 15,133 : 19,803 : 24,120 : 23,731 /10,664 : 10,993 : 15,260 : 16,683 : 21,241 : 6,281 : 11,81501/13: 115.93 114.29: 14,982 : 19,605 : 23,879 : 23,494 /10,429 : 10,751 : 13,108 : 16,490 : 22,215 : 6,202 : 11,21401/06: 115.60 113.93: 14,994 : 19,621 : 23,898 : 22,244 /10,478 : 11,211 : 12,741 : 16,502 : 22,231 : 6,071 : 11,041 st.2013Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%12/30: Prices / NetSF : 18,221 : 24,835 : 30,512 : 26,639 /13,929 : 15,020 : 16,257 : 21,606 : 29,492 : 8,116 : 13,35912/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,66512/23: 115.18 113.61: 14,092 : 19,603 : 23,876 : 22,237 /10,514 : 11,719 : 12,753 : 16,332 : 22,210 : 5,957 : 11,42912/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 19,574 : 23,840 : 22,024 /10,527 : 11,733 : 12,744 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 : 11,28812/09: 114.57 113.20: 14,037 : 19,527 : 22,150 : 22,150 /10,229 : 11,699 : 12,715 : 16,283 : 22,144 : 5,995 : 10,89212/02: 114.38 112.52: 14,035 : 19,523 : 23,778 : 22,146 /10,423 : 11,896 : 13,656 : 17,883 : 22,324 : 5,978 : 10,81011/25: 115.05 113.11: 16,570 : 19,594 : 23,865 : 22,227 /10,293 : 11,749 : 13,633 : 17,853 : 22,286 : 6,042 : 11,59011/18: 116.17 114.32: 16,597 : 19,626 : 23,904 : 22,264 // 9,815 : 11,584 : 13,602 : 17,811 : 22,234 : 6,198 : 11,69511/11: 116.81 114.20: 16,717 : 19,768 : 25,410 : 22,424 // 9,984 : 11,784 : 14,531 : 16,714 : 22,466 : 6,361 : 11,52811/04: 116.07 113.81: 16,666 : 19,708 : 23,167 : 22,356 // 9,975 : 11,646 : 12,887 : 16,680 : 22,420 : 6,194 : 10,91110/28: 114.35 112.33: 16,564 : 19,587 : 23,025 : 22,039 // 9,925 : 10,805 : 12,736 : 15,744 : 22,906 : 6,137 : 11,46110/21: 112.25 110.37: 16,336 : 19,318 : 22,708 : 21,735 // 9,864 : 10,738 : 12,649 : 15,583 : 23,432 : 6,146 : 11,31710/14: 111.19 109.41: 15,804 : 19,268 : 22,649 : 21,679/ 10,048 : 10,897 : 12,901 : 15,555 : 20,753 : 5,814 : 11,09110/07: 111.11 109.21: 14,469 : 19,337 : 22,730 : 21,756 // 9,780 : 11,298 : 12,407 : 16,922 : 20,729 : 5,904 : 10,79809/30: 110.14 108.55: 14,400 : 19,246 : 22,623 : 21,652/ 10,018 : 10,804 : 12,341 : 15,017 : 20,620 : 5,657 : 11,48509/23: 109,81 107.88: 14,478 : 19,348 : 22,745 : 21,770/ 10,099 : 10,892 : 12,809 : 15,602 : 21,015 : 5,628 : 10,70009/16: 108.17 106.05: 14,340 : 19,164 : 22,528 : 21,563/ 10,089 : 10,880 : 12,784 : 15,572 : 20,975 : 5,556 : 10,26209/09: 108.80 107.02: 14,343 : 19,169 : 22,534 : 21,568 // 9,976 : 10,785 : 11,176 : 15,506 : 19,828 : 5,498 : 10,57809/02: 107.99 105.85: 14,360 : 19,191 : 22,559 : 18,625 // 9,952 : 10,837 : 11,891 : 16,102 : 19,822 : 5,561 : 10,58208/26: 106.89 105.17: 14,324 : 19,144 : 22,504 : 18,580 // 9,622 : 11,021 : 11,811 : 15,995 : 22,319 : 5,404 : 10,53808/19: 107.18 105.22: 14,342 : 19,168 : 22,532 : 18,603 // 9,671 : 10,741 : 12,197 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,447 : 10,89308/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,29208/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,20807/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,68907/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,21107/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,06107/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,75907/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,51806/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,54606/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,53006/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,18506/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,09305/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,65905/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,87705/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,18605/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,71904/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,92204/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,66304/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,88604/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,58104/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.38403/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,37303/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,85003/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,61503/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,72802/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,70202/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,49902/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,03802/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,87301/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,88401/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,87501/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,86401/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,29501/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160 st.201212/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,87712/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,88212/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,35712/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,379 200710/28:: 59.36 : 57.22 : Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspxOTHER LINKS HiddenForum : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=920AXpat Forum :: http://hongkong.asia...-kong-property/Cental-Data :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htmGEI secret-- :: http://www.greenener...p?showtopic=920 : hidden threadTLB history :: http://hk.centadata.com/eptest.aspx?type=2&code=EGPPWPPJPW&info=tr&page=0Show Flats- :: http://www.gohome.co...ew-property/en/Price Track :: http://eng.data.28hse.com/AX property :: http://tinyurl.com/HKprops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehk Posted February 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's that Caribbean Coast link again http://www.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008500 Interesting to note the rents are skyrocketing here. For CC, a 1200 sq/ft up at around $18000 p/m. A landlords market it seems..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehk Posted February 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 HK news--Prices staying the courseJanuary 27, 2011Housing experts predict the volume of property sales this year will fall from 2010 levels, while prices will rise 5 to 15 percent - down from last year's 21 percent - as more government intervention is expected to cool the market. Transactions in Hong Kong's primary and secondary markets may slump 10 percent and 20 percent, respectively, analysts and agencies said. That being said, Samsung Securities managing director and regional head of property Lee Wee-liat does not expect residential prices to slide much due to the current low mortgage rates."Even if the interest rates rise within these two years, the pace won't be too fast, and home prices won't fall easily," he said.Lee forecasts property prices will climb 5 percent this year as the government launches more measures to curb speculation. "Homebuyers will be more cautious as they may find home prices too high after those austerity measures, so we foresee the number of home transactions dropping," Lee said.According to Samsung, the average transaction value in the primary market for the first half of 2010 soared to almost HK$20 million per property - five times higher than the norm of HK$4 million per unit.This indicated that a large number of the sales involved luxury properties, defined as homes costing HK$12 million or more.The strong response of homebuyers in the primary market subsequently triggered a wave of transactions in the secondary market, where the average transaction value jumped to HK $4 million, up from the norm of HK$2.5 million to HK$3 million per apartment - similar to what occurred in 1997, when per unit price also hit HK$4 million."Mainland buyers will continue to be the main driver of the local luxury residential market," Lee said, adding they may have accounted for 40 percent of firsthand luxury home purchases in the second half of last year.For the first six months of last year, Centaline Property attributed up to 35 percent of luxury sales in the primary market, and about 20 percent of deals in the secondary market, to mainland buyers.Centaline research director Wong Leung-sing said 1,172 villas changed hands in the whole of 2010, generating turnover of HK$25.67 billion - the highest level since the HK$43.37 billion recorded in 1997.Meanwhile, Midland Realty head of research Buggle Lau Ka-fai takes a more bullish view for 2011.Lau projects that home prices will rise 10 percent, with trading volume declining about 17 percent.Ricacorp predicts the number of residential transactions will drop 20 percent this year to 108,000 deals, or about 9,000 per month, while prices will climb 10 percent at major housing estates, and 15 percent for luxury homes.Construction started for 5,397 flats in 35 projects last year - a 22 percent plunge from 6,887 homes in 2009 - according to Ricacorp head of property research Patrick Chow Moon-kit.Chow forecasts construction starts to rebound to 8,000 to 12,000 flats this year."The actual levels of demand may be distorted by investment activities," said Samsung's Lee, commenting on the view that home prices are pushed up by undersupply.Of the private flats built and occupied between 2006 and 2009, some 26 percent to 36 percent of them are being rented out rather than occupied by owners, according to data compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department.Lee said those percentages were even higher than the 17 percent in 1996 and 28 percent in 1997, during the asset bubble before the Asian financial crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 18 YEAR PROPERTY CYCLE - Next Peak: 2015-17 ? === QUOTE / Feb 4 2011 : davehk =====Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi!I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market. . .Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle?Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.=== End Quote =====Hi Dave,Welcome and Thanks for starting this thread.I will give you a quick answer, and maybe a longer and more detailed response later.+ I try to analyze property markets within an 18 year cycle, which I have described elsewhere on this thread, and also on YouTube. It basically consists of 14 years up, and 4 years down - though these time frames can "morph" somewhat depend on the general economy and longer cycles.+ I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top, which I am expecting in the 2015-17 time frame. You will note that: 1997 (most recent peak) plus 18 years is 2015 and 2003 (most recent low) plus 14 years is 2017. From these two calculations come my expected peak.+ Between now and 2015-17, theres is time for a decent correction, before a final "blowoff rally" into a peak around the time the Macau bridge may be finished, and when new MTR lines may be completed. These works may be give rise to excessive confidence and a final Long Cycle peak. (I am just guessing on this, but I would be monitoring how these projects effect confidence.+ The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher.+ I would expect Caribbean Coast prices to track those of the HK market in general. You may have noticed that average prices in HK are running at something close to 46 times the Mass Market index, as released by Centaline.<img src="http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/5467/ccnov2009.jpg" border="0" class="linked-image" />(I may post more later - but I shall be leaving for a trip of several days from tomorrow,) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2011 Report Share Posted February 4, 2011 QUOTE (davehk @ Feb 4 2011, 02:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Here's that Caribbean Coast link again http://www.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008500Interesting to note the rents are skyrocketing here. For CC, a 1200 sq/ft up at around $18000 p/m. A landlords market it seems..... Pilots are getting more money, and people are moving to TC and CC from other, more expensive areas.We did manage to get $17,000 for a fully furnished 3BR about 2-3 years ago. Then rents fell back to $12 - 14,000 (briefly) in the financial crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davehk Posted February 5, 2011 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks for your input Dr Bubb, In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg! As per the thread topic, most commentators are predicting a modest year for housing prices. It seems to me taking into account foretasted GDP growth, inflation, low unemployment, etc. this is probably true. As for CC, It appears that the available supply is low of units for lease which would support these high rental returns for quite some time. Personally, I'm considering buying another as a vehicle to building equity with the mindset to get out before the peak. I guess the indicators of increased media "bubble reporting", govt interference and the like would indicate the timing to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowTip Posted February 8, 2011 Report Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hi everybody, this will be my first post on this amazing forum. I live and work in HK and am a casual investor. Nowhere near the sophistication levels of people like DrBubb. I am very eager to learn and share my opinions with the other forum members. + The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher. While I believe a correction in interest rates for HK is needed, I don't see how it can come anytime soon. I don't see the USA increasing their interest rates while their recovery is still shaky. Has HK ever made IR changes separate from US IR changes? I did notice how Donald Tsang at the end of 2010 warned people not to buy property, because interest rates are expected to rise significantly in 2011. I'm guessing I should take that as clear writing on the wall? (I may post more later - but I shall be leaving for a trip of several days from tomorrow,) Do please share more. I'm eager to learn more about your thoughts and analysis of the HK property market in 2011. I too am looking on buying some property in the coming months in the hope they will have a steady rise until they peak in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg! Since this was posted, there has been talk of more "government action" in the way of putting more LAND on auction, and property shares and the Hang Seng index have fallen. So maybe the turn is arriving now. Here's my favorite bellwether / predictor for HK property prices: Henderson Land / HK:12 ... update A further drop below $50, dragging the MA's down with it, could provide a nice confirmation that the HK property market is turning down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2011 Report Share Posted February 14, 2011 Welcome, Yellow Tip Do please share more. I'm eager to learn more about your thoughts and analysis of the HK property market in 2011. I too am looking on buying some property in the coming months in the hope they will have a steady rise until they peak in 2015. I do not expect a "steady rise" into 2015. Instead, I would expect a sizeable correction, followed by a rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted February 16, 2011 Report Share Posted February 16, 2011 A stall to China's growth story could be the catalyst that brings about the correction. China is now suffering from inflation concerns and attempting to apply the brakes. I am going to start a thread looking at the disparity in China between the have's and have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted February 21, 2011 Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 An article in today's standard warns about the rationale for buying HK property now. The fear of not being on the property ladder may be stemming people to buy but is the time right? How do you know when the time is right. My intuition tells me(and following the market for the past 5 years) that now is not the time to buy. Others comments? Here is the article: Buying a home holds no strong rationale Monday, February 21, 2011 Hong Kong residential property prices are the most expensive in the world. Those who are buying flats now are using one or more of the following five rationales. First, I need to own a house to live in. Second, I have a secure job, which ensures timely mortgage payments into the future. Third, it is cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to the prevailing low interest rates. Fourth, a home is a solid hedge against hyperinflation. Fifth, I won't have any trouble selling my house as mainlanders remain keen on Hong Kong property. All five rationale are flimsy. Many people in Germany, Sweden and France rent a house their whole life. They are happy as they have more disposable income. Second, unless you work for the government, it is hard to find a very secure job in Hong Kong. Third, many expect the US Federal Reserve to start raising rates by the end of this year. Fourth, global inflation remains relatively low. Food prices are likely to ease later this year when the weather improves and China tightens credit. Fifth, rich mainlanders are smart and they are unlikely to overpay. In 1997, many people bought properties for the right reason. In 2003, many sold for good reasons. Only the future can tell who is right or wrong. Dr Check and/or The Standard bear no responsibility for any decision made based on the views in this column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 21, 2011 Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 An article in today's standard warns about the rationale for buying HK property now. The fear of not being on the property ladder may be stemming people to buy but is the time right? How do you know when the time is right. My intuition tells me(and following the market for the past 5 years) that now is not the time to buy. Others comments? Here is the article: Buying a home holds no strong rationale Monday, February 21, 2011 Hong Kong residential property prices are the most expensive in the world. Those who are buying flats now are using one or more of the following five rationales. First, I need to own a house to live in. Second, I have a secure job, which ensures timely mortgage payments into the future. Third, it is cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to the prevailing low interest rates. Fourth, a home is a solid hedge against hyperinflation. Fifth, I won't have any trouble selling my house as mainlanders remain keen on Hong Kong property. All five rationale are flimsy. Many people in Germany, Sweden and France rent a house their whole life. They are happy as they have more disposable income. Second, unless you work for the government, it is hard to find a very secure job in Hong Kong. Third, many expect the US Federal Reserve to start raising rates by the end of this year. No one likes missing a profit opportunity. But the "fear of missing out" on more profits, when property is already expensive... Is a poor rationale IMHO, and is a typical "late stage" phenomenom. Owning now looks cheaper than renting in HK - but that is only due to ultra-low interest rates. HK's rates are controlled by US interest rate policy, because of the peg. Adn without the peg, I think rates would be significantly higher - probably at least 2-3%, rather than 1%. I think that the HK government has not been very clever about addressing the discrepancy in growth rates - and that is unfortunately. Because I think many HK people are going to find themselves owning expensive flats when rates do rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desertorchid Posted February 21, 2011 Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 No one likes missing a profit opportunity. But the "fear of missing out" on more profits, when property is already expensive... Is a poor rationale IMHO, and is a typical "late stage" phenomenom. Owning now looks cheaper than renting in HK - but that is only due to ultra-low interest rates. HK's rates are controlled by US interest rate policy, because of the peg. Adn without the peg, I think rates would be significantly higher - probably at least 2-3%, rather than 1%. I think that the HK government has not been very clever about addressing the discrepancy in growth rates - and that is unfortunately. Because I think many HK people are going to find themselves owning expensive flats when rates do rise. What is happening in HK right now is truly astonishing. Rent is going through the roof and I am commonly hearing of rate hikes between 40-50%. Hong Kong may well be pricing itself out of the game in SE Asia as expats consider the true cost of living here. Some windfall gains i'm hearing of are eye watering. A colleagues is closing a deal this week for a 10 million HKD profit on a 7 million purchase in 2006. This is all madness and unless the government does something unpopular fast it is very likely to end in tears. But as always the question is when not if............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 21, 2011 Report Share Posted February 21, 2011 What is happening in HK right now is truly astonishing. Rent is going through the roof and I am commonly hearing of rate hikes between 40-50%. Hong Kong may well be pricing itself out of the game in SE Asia as expats consider the true cost of living here... The agents are frustrated. Since the new tax was introduced, properties coming on the market have falled sharply. What flats are on the market, are very high-priced, and the buyers do not want to pay those high prices. I am getting calls on my property, but am very reluctant to show it - since I do not know where I could live if I sell out - I do not want to pay the high rents that I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowTip Posted May 22, 2011 Report Share Posted May 22, 2011 Gentlemen, this very interesting thread has been inactive for quite a while now. From the other posts, it seems people are more interested in the state of the London property market than anything else. I for one have just sold my HK property to cash in the 60% profit that I built up over the last 3 years. I know, it's not the usual story one hears of making over a 100% profit in less than a year, but my gut feeling always tells me that those cases are highly exceptional and more than often exaggerated. My rationale for selling was that the secondary market in HK seems to be stagnating. Just look at this chart for a Le Bleu Deux property in Tung Chung: http://en.homeprice.com.hk/valuation/Coastal_Skyline/Le_Bleu_Block_2/17/D/4213/ This chart is very similar to valuations of most other properties in HK, ranging from The Cullinan to Harbour Green, etc. This in combination with the reports that secondary market transactions are dropping week over week and the fact that banks are starting to increase their mortgage interest rates, leads me to believe we've hit a plateau. From here the market can either continue to rise again, or it can start to correct downward. My gut feeling tells me it will go down. No massive correction, but still a 15-20% drop. While everybody seems to be talking about the interest rates, I'm looking at something totally different that is actually also affecting me personally. I'm not one of those wealthy property investors with 10+ properties. I do have a very good job that by itself would enable me to get a very high mortgage. I just don't have a lot of equity (at least not by HK standards). So here's my point: Property prices have risen so fast that finding something decent for below 6.8M in Kowloon or HK island is becoming increasingly impossible. < 6.8 is the sweet spot where you can get the 70-90% mortgages. The moment you cross that line you're stuck with 40%. Then cross the 12M line, and you're stuck with no more than a 50% mortgage. The only way around this is by going for a new property and making use of the developer's financing options. The developer will give you some kind of 2nd mortgage at ridiculous interest rates (for The Hermitage in Olympic they were charging 6%+ for the 2nd mortgage). In addition, the new developments that are coming onto the market are pricing themselves at almost twice the price of the nearby secondary properties. For example, in Olympic, One Silversea, Harbour Green, The Longbeach, etc. are all charging between 9k and 11K per square foot. The new Imperial Cullinan project is expected to start at 20K for their smallest units. So for the average Joe, even a Joe with very good job, buying property is becoming increasingly impossible. Most people in HK, even ones with good jobs, don't have enough equity to make a 40-50% down payment. The new properties coming on the market are charging crazy high prices, again making it nearly impossible for most people to get into. Then of course, finding something decent for below 6.8M is becoming nearly impossible. So I feel we're quickly reaching a point where local people in HK can no longer keep the transactions going. Let's not be delusional here and think that those ultra rich Chinese will, cause that's only a small group of people. The vast majority of transactions still needs to come from local HK workingman. So let's look at that chart again that opened this thread: Could it be that we're in the "Delusion" phase of the cycle now? You have people asking for ridiculously high prices, often over 20% more than the average bank valuation, and we've reached a point where the buyers are no longer willing to buy at these prices, yet the sellers are not willing to lower their prices. Still when I read articles in the SCMP and The Standard saying that the property market can be expected to continue a healthy growth for the coming 3-4 years, I wonder of this is the same delusional speak, or whether we're actually just near the end of the "Take Off" stage. Who dares to comment and share their views on the current situation? My friends are all too chicken to say a damn thing at them moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desertorchid Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 In my workplace in HK practically everyone has cashed out of their property investments (sometimes with profits in excess of 4-5 million HKD). No-one is seriously considering buying and their income would be in the top 1-5% in HK. They're effectively feeling priced out. Hong Kong property cannot continue to rise. The only purchases now are from people trading up/sideways having made a profit on their recent sale. The only possibilty is stable prices/ low sales for a number of years as wages inflate. This, IMO is unlikely to happen and a 20%-30% fall is nigh on certain for the next year+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 Congratulations Yellow Tip on booking a very healthy profit. I agree with desertorchid and believe we are in the mania phase and many people are feeling priced out of the market. Hk property market can be quite fickle and a catalyst could bring a significant correction to the market - which I think would be healthy to the market. I think we are in the greed stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowTip Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 In my workplace in HK practically everyone has cashed out of their property investments (sometimes with profits in excess of 4-5 million HKD). No-one is seriously considering buying and their income would be in the top 1-5% in HK. They're effectively feeling priced out. Hong Kong property cannot continue to rise. The only purchases now are from people trading up/sideways having made a profit on their recent sale. The only possibilty is stable prices/ low sales for a number of years as wages inflate. This, IMO is unlikely to happen and a 20%-30% fall is nigh on certain for the next year+. And here I was thinking something was wrong with me. I too am in that top income segment, and by western standards have a nice amount of equity. Still, I feel like a poor schmuck when looking at properties these days. The other day I went looking at apartments at the Cullinan (Kowloon Station). A tiny tiny 850 Ft. apartment at a low level without a view is going for 20M. So when I sarcastically asked the agent if I needed to pay down 10M for this place he looked at me with this strange look like, "Dude, you don't have that kinda cash???". Gotta love these property guys As far as trading sideways/up goes, I'm in a position to do that, but I'm just not sure if it would be a clever move. If a correction were to come next year, I'd lose my current profit and probably more. Guess for now I'll just rent something 'cheap' for a year and see what the market will do. Am Actually looking at some apartments at Le Bleu Deux in Tung Chung. To be honest, I'm a bit apprehensive about moving this far away from Kowloon/HK but people I talk to say Tung Chung actually has a nice and convenient living environment. Anyone here living in TC, I would love to hear your impression of TC and Le Bleu Deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowTip Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 Congratulations Yellow Tip on booking a very healthy profit. I agree with desertorchid and believe we are in the mania phase and many people are feeling priced out of the market. Hk property market can be quite fickle and a catalyst could bring a significant correction to the market - which I think would be healthy to the market. I think we are in the greed stage. Thanks surfdude. You might be right about the Greed phase. I sure was greedy when I put my property on the market I set a price that was substantially above market price, expecting the property to just sit there for a while. Even the HKProperty agent was telling me that the price was too high and that at this level he would likely not be able to find any buyers. Make a short story even shorter, I sold the property 2 days later at slightly below my asking price. It sold so fast that I was actually asking myself if I should have priced it even higher... ....greed? What would be typical signs of the Delusion stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 What would be typical signs of the Delusion stage? That we believe that there is still a lot of life in the property market and buy back in at these levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted May 23, 2011 Report Share Posted May 23, 2011 Anyone here living in TC, I would love to hear your impression of TC and Le Bleu Deux. I live in TC and have been there for going on 7 years now. It is a great place for families and the outdoors. Lots of joggers, hikers and cyclists. The commute to Central on the train is about 30 minutes to IFC - not bad by my standards. There are some decent restaurants (novotel) and the golf course at the airport is close. I looked at LB2 when they were showcasing it - the build quality looks quite good and the appliances were flash but I wouldn't pay the premium over the other estates. Best to go have a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelliand Posted May 24, 2011 Report Share Posted May 24, 2011 Thanks for the post Yellowtip. I feel so priced out I don't even bother looking, and would also be in top 1% of HK household incomes. I have three kids, and rent a nice apartment in Braemar Hill where the rental yield is under 2.5% for the landlord. It's a nice area and important for the schools. Happy renting, and with the deposit requirements at the moment buying would not be possible even on the near-horizon. There seem reminders of 1997. Politicians talking about planning to help housing a lot (all reminiscent of Tung Chee Hwa's platform in 1997). Even the very high income individuals unable to buy (particularly of decent flats >1200 flat suitable for families with children). And maybe with more investors in the market from outside Hong Kong it could become even more volatile than 1997 when so many properties are held without tenant. The luxury block opposite us only has 2 or 3 lights on in the evening. So wasteful, feels a crime with people couple kilometres away in Wanchai in the cage-homes without running water. This article 1997 in NYT could be written today: http://www.nytimes.com/specials/hongkong/070397hongkong-housing.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelliand Posted May 24, 2011 Report Share Posted May 24, 2011 Also remember a post of Dr. Bubb talking about property stocks acting as early indicators. Cheung Kong peaked 1st Dec 2007 then bottom of property market Nov 2008. Maybe Cheung Kong's peak was 14th Jan 2011, then bottom of market Dec 2011? Seems too fast to me, but possible I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted May 24, 2011 Report Share Posted May 24, 2011 Thanks for adding your perspective Thelliand and agree that article from 97 is just as appropriate today. Developers are indeed a bellweather for property and Dr. Bubb likes Henderson in particular. I also remember him saying that first sales volume drops and this is followed by price. I think the debacle happening in Europe, specifically debt pressures, could be the catalyst that begins the correction in HK property (that I believe is due). There could be big drops in property offer prices by the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfdude Posted May 24, 2011 Report Share Posted May 24, 2011 Another indicator could be if this thread goes hot. The old HK property thread went dead for over a year during the boom. I guess there is nothing to talk about when property was chugging along and making new highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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