happy Posted April 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2013 update SSEC Shanghai Stock Exchange: week ended negative, however set up remains constructive provided support line holds. FXI China iShares: strong action this week, set up looks constructive provided last weeks low holds. HSI Hang Seng: test and rejection of descending trendline = higher low. EWH Hong Kong iShares: very strong action this week, approaching important resistance line . . chart action looks constructive, stair-stepping towards a breakout to new all time highs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2013 another look at Johnson & Johnson Daily: price has continued to new highs, however divergence remains in place which would suggest a correction is imminent. Weekly: RSI remains very overbought ... price touched ascending trendline, suggesting this would be a good place for the price to correct. In addition, if we treat the rise from 2009 low to 2012 breakout as an ascending triangle, then we get a price projection of 85.00 (62.50 - 40.00 = 22.5, 62.50 + 22.50 = 85.00) which we reached this week, again, suggesting this is a good place to expect a correction. JNJ has rallied an incredible 40% in the last 12 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted April 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2013 Gold: price action looks like a text-book bear flag . . . and may be ready to head back south. The price accomplished a 61.2% retracement of the most recent drop which also coincides with the 38.2% fanline from Oct. 2012 high. One would expect these lines to represent important resistance and as such it would make sense for prices to correct from here. If a correction were to eventuate according to the bear flag scenario, a simple AB=CD calculation would currently project to ca. ~ 1220. If such a scenario were to develop, my guess would be that we would see a lot of positive divergences emerge thereby establishing a more durable low than the recent low of 1325. Obviously that remains to be seen. (As a side note: it is worth noting that the predictions of Gold at either 1340 and/or 1250 by Dr. Bubb's HK hedge fund friends looks remarkably prescient!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2013 Report Share Posted April 28, 2013 "noting that the predictions of Gold at either 1340 and/or 1250 by Dr. Bubb's HK hedge fund friends" I will try to get an update on their views in the not-too-distant future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2013 Gold: price action looks like a text-book bear flag . . . and may be ready to head back south. The price accomplished a 61.2% retracement of the most recent drop which also coincides with the 38.2% fanline from Oct. 2012 high. One would expect these lines to represent important resistance and as such it would make sense for prices to correct from here. If a correction were to eventuate according to the bear flag scenario, a simple AB=CD calculation would currently project to ca. ~ 1220. If such a scenario were to develop, my guess would be that we would see a lot of positive divergences emerge thereby establishing a more durable low than the recent low of 1325. Obviously that remains to be seen. (As a side note: it is worth noting that the predictions of Gold at either 1340 and/or 1250 by Dr. Bubb's HK hedge fund friends looks remarkably prescient!) brief update on Gold: 38.2% fanline continues to act as resistance with price struggling to close above it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 10, 2013 Report Share Posted May 10, 2013 Agree on Gold. I am hoping for a retest of Lows on "gentle" volume, for a Great buying opportunity. And especially for Gold stocks and NUGT It looks like the A$ is about to go your way - in a big move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2013 Agree on Gold. I am hoping for a retest of Lows on "gentle" volume, for a Great buying opportunity. And especially for Gold stocks and NUGT It looks like the A$ is about to go your way - in a big move Yep And interesting action in Aussie! Meanwhile, it might be worth keeping an eye on what looks like an inverted H&S pattern on the LQD:TLT ratio: [Anyway, in the process of moving house and have not got reliable internet yet, will try and upload more charts when I can ... some interesting action with China/Hong Kong charts too!] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2013 ACHTUNG! ACHTUNG!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 12, 2013 Report Share Posted May 12, 2013 interesting. Maybe German non-bank stocks would be the way to play it, or calls on an etf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted May 12, 2013 Report Share Posted May 12, 2013 ACHTUNG! ACHTUNG!! Buy on the breakout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 . . . meanwhile the melt-up in JNJ continues: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 Japanese Yen: according to long term fractal it looks like we might be due a decent short covering rally . . . soon-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 Shanghai / China: Hong Kong: . . . breakout to new all-time highs: Hong Kong iShares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 Nikkei: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 and a look at the PIGS following the breakout in the DAX ... some encouraging signs Portugal Italy Greece Spain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 DAX vs PIGS . . . (highlighting Italy - $MIB) . . . is Italy set to outperform Germany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 And the breakouts continue . . . down under New Zealand The Lucky Country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 Dow Jones: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 16, 2013 Report Share Posted May 16, 2013 Dow Jones: Does that suggest a Turning point in stocks to you, Happy? Please comment. BTW, I think we have an astro-cycle turn within a few days... There are the 2013 Bradley Turn Dates List Most important dates January 29, 2013 June 22, 2013 October 8, 2013 November 3, 2013 January 1, 2014 === http://forbestadvice...nDates2013.html === But I am not talking about those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2013 Dow Jones: Does that suggest a Turning point in stocks to you, Happy? Please comment. Yes, although at this stage I'd expect a correction more akin to the July-August 2007 or May-June 2011 corrections (which would make the 14,000 +/- area indicated a prime target). The magnitude of the current divergence is not huge, and strictly speaking, it could still be negated if prices were to power ahead from here ... however, given that price is bumping up against resistance/rising trend line I think this is unlikely. Ideally, for the "resumption of the bear" scenario, we would see a mild correction here, followed by either: a lower high into the fall (e.g., May / Jul 2011 scenario), or: a higher high with more pronounced divergence (e.g., Jul / Oct 2007 scenario). Note: this by no means guarantees the resumption of the bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2013 tweaking the channels on the Dow: . . . and a close up view: ideally we would close below the resistance/trend line. An intra-day spike above followed by a reversal could be tolerated, however we risk negating the negative divergence which would make any ensuing correction less significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2013 USDX: cup & handle formation, a breakout on volume would project to ~ 95 on the index [caveat: C.O.T. is very stretched at the moment] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2013 And speaking of C.O.T., the Aussie is also very stretched at the moment. However, some technical damage being done: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 18, 2013 Report Share Posted May 18, 2013 USDX: cup & handle formation, a breakout on volume would project to ~ 95 on the index [caveat: C.O.T. is very stretched at the moment] Interesting possibility. But we may get a TURN much sooner in DXY ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy Posted May 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2013 Interesting possibility. But we may get a TURN much sooner in DXY ... update Yes, good point about the divergence. That would seem to be confirmed by C.O.T. ... small specs at extremes. PS: and perhaps no surprise the C.O.T. data on gold is close to a mirror image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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