drbubb Posted July 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2019 NATGAS & Natgas stocks vs. Stock Indicies End.Qtr: NGas : XOI : Ratio :: EndQ : NGas : XOI : Ratio : Q3’22: $6.766 / 1,504 = 0.450%, Q3’23: $2.929 / 1,933= 0.152% yrE'22 $4.104 / 1,787 = 0.230%, yrE'23 $2.327 / 1,862= 0.125% Q1’23: $2.216 / 1,732 = 0.128%, Q1’24: $1.763 / 2,149= 0.082% Q2’23: $2.774 / 1,679 = 0.165%, Q2’24: $2.598 / 2,045= 0.127% 08.26.24; S: 108.7 / 104.3 Bcf = 104.2%: $2.12/ 2,010: 0.105% .. 9/'22> Apa: Swn: Soil : XOI / Arca Oil Idx (2,010) vs. SPY ($561, 27.9%), GLD ($233, 11.6%) .. 2014: 2019: 2023: Ytd: 10d: / XOI (1,870): XLE (86.63, 4.63%), USO (69.27, 3.70%). SPY ($561, 30.0%), GLD ($233, 12.5%) NatGAS ($2.12) is way off its High / XOI (2,010) = 0.105%. 2014: 2019: 2023: Ytd: 10d: static: Apa-Ytd: Soil: 2014: static: 2009: 2.12 APA (28.57)/ XOI-1983=1.44%; UGI(24.66, 1.24%), EQT(32.60,1.64%), UNG:13.20 > 2019: 9/’22: Ytd: SOIL(2.79)/ XOI-1983=.14%; BTE (4.84,.24%), SGY (6.64,.33%), UNG:13.20; 9/'22: Ytd: APA: mo>2000: 2008: wk>'18: '20(ex.Eqt): '22: PER: 3.15, Yld: 3.47% (R:26.81 to 46.145), BV: $14.66. ytd: 10d: 2008: >2000: Natgas to WTIC NatGas ($2.12) to XOI (2,010) === Natural Gas Recovers From Multi-Year Lows on Supply Data - Jan.2019 The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. However, the injection was higher than the five-year average and the year-ago rise. Therefore, despite a slight recovery, natural gas prices remained close to the lowest levels in more than three years because of growing fears that soaring production is outpacing demand growth. Analysis: Less-Than-Expected Rise in Storage Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 98 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Jun 21, below the guidance (of 100 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. However, the increase was higher than the five-year (2014-2018) average net injection of 70 Bcf and last year’s increase of 71 Bcf for the reported week. The latest rise in inventories puts total natural gas stocks at 2.301 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) - 236 Bcf (11.4%) above 2018 levels at this time but 171 Bcf (6.9%) under the five-year average. Fundamentally speaking, total supply of natural gas averaged 94.2 Bcf per day, essentially unchanged on a weekly basis. While dry production inched up to 89.6 Bcf per day from 89 Bcf per day, 2% less gas flowed into the country from Canada. Meanwhile, daily consumption was up 3.3% to 84.1 Bcf compared to 81.4 Bcf in the previous week primarily due to strong power sector demand amid warmer weather across the Southeast region. Prices Recover Somewhat The slightly smaller-than-expected climb in U.S. supplies drove a 5.6% weekly gain for natural gas – the best week since January – erasing some of the steep losses that have taken the commodity to lows not seen since May 2016. Still, natural gas – at $2.308 per MMBtu – is far off the $3.722 per MMBtu 2019-high reached in January. Last week, the fuel hit a more than three-year low of $2.185. ==== WINTER 2023-24 UPDATE, ( yrE'23: $2.327 / xoi-1,862= 0.125% ) Why are you projecting lower natural gas prices? Dena Wiggins: Demand for natural gas is projected to set a new record this winter, but record production, higher-than average storage, and a slowing economy will provide ample supply. Together these factors will place slight downward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last winter. • It’s important that we first look at natural gas supply. Natural gas production has been at an all-time high for over a year, mainly due to the ability of natural gas producers to incorporate cutting edge technologies and efficiencies gained from experience to produce more with each rig. For example, one rig can now be used to develop up to a dozen wells in a single location. These efficiencies are further bolstered by strategic use of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCS) that can bring supply to market quickly. Our Outlook is forecasting this winter’s daily production to average more than 101 Bcf/d, which is slightly more than last winter. Combined with a slight increase in Canadian imports and very low levels of LNG imports, we expect supply to put downward pressure on natural gas prices. • Projections for the economy and natural gas storage are both putting downward pressure on prices. The U.S. is expected to enter winter 2 percent above the 5-year average with 3.7 Tcf of gas in storage, considerably more than last winter’s 3.5 Tcf levels, and the GDP growth is expected to be around 1.3 percent. • Meanwhile, a winter that is 3% colder than last winter, and 3% colder than the last three winters, as well as an increase in demand is putting upward pressure on prices. Customer demand is projected to average 121.4 Bcf/day, a nearly 3 percent increase winter-over-winter, primarily in the export sector and residential and commercial sector. > https://www.ngsa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/01/NGSA_Winter-QA.pdf Recent, DAILY Suppy / Demand: ( xx / xx ) > https://www.ngsa.org/daily-natural-gas/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2019 "BOUGHT a few shares of SWN, as it fell to new lows." (7/2019) SWN / Southwestern Energy ... updated: 2020: $6.20 +0.17 / XOI: $1,819 = .055% == WHY Down so much? The energy complex fell yesterday. Crude oil was down about 5% OIH- etc... update / Last: Sym. : Last : chg.: % chg. : ——-: Yr.Low-High : off Low: vsHigh SWN: $2.88 -0.18, -5.88% (52wk: $2.85 - 6.23): + 0.4% : - 53.8% NGas $2.24. -0.03, -1.19%. ($2.13 - 4.93): + 5.2% : - 54.6% WTI : $56.25 -2.84, -4.81%. ($42.36 - 66.60): +32.8% : - 15.5% USO: $11.70 -0.58, -4.72% ($9.23 - 16.24): +26.8% : - 28.0% OIH.: $14.44 -0.48, -3.22%. ($13.01 - 27.45): +11.0% : - 47.4% BTU: $22.95 -1.23, -5.09%. ($21.42 - 46.27): + 7.1% : - 50.4% CHK: $ 1.85 -0.11, -5.61%. ($1.71- $5.60): + 8.2% : - 67.0% CNQ: $26.58 -0.39, -1.45%. (21.85- 37.41): +21.6% : -28.9% ECA : $ 4.96. -0.18, -3.50%. ($4.56- 14.28): + 8.8% : - 65.3% COP : $60.10 -2.15, -3.45%. ($56.75- 80.24): + 5.9% : - 25.1% ==== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2019 2019-07-19 09:00 U:RRC News Release Range Announces Asset Sales That Will Total $634 Million FORT WORTH, Texas, July 19, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION (NYSE: RRC) today announced that it has agreed to sell a 2% proportionately reduced overriding royalty interest in 350,000 net surface acres in southwest Appalachia for gross proceeds totaling $600 million. The two separate transactions are effective as of March 1, 2019 and apply to existing and future Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian development on the subject leases, while excluding shallower and deeper horizons. The properties produced approximately 1.9 Bcfe net per day in the first quarter of 2019 and annualized cash flow associated with these overriding royalty sales is expected to approximate $48 million, based on first half 2019 pricing. Range also completed the sale of certain non-producing acreage in Pennsylvania for gross proceeds of $34 million that closed in June 2019. The properties sold included approximately 20,000 acres in northwest Armstrong County. Sale processes to monetize additional non-core assets remain underway. The royalty interest transactions are scheduled to close during July 2019 with proceeds utilized to repay amounts outstanding under the Company’s revolving credit facility. The combined gross proceeds of $634 million will reduce total debt by approximately 17%. Annual interest expense is expected to decline by approximately $30 million and offset a significant amount of the cash flow reduction associated with the royalty sales. “Following the expected closing of these transactions, Range will have executed a $1 billion reduction in absolute debt over the past 12 months as the Company strengthens the business through organic free cash flow generation and asset sales”, said Jeff Ventura, CEO and President of Range Resources. “These asset sales once again highlight the significant intrinsic value of our assets. Over the past year, Range will have generated asset sale proceeds that equate to approximately 75% of our current market cap through the divestment of assets with a net impact to annual cash flow of less than 4%. = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2019 Encana (ECA) to Gain From Output Growth, Maintains 2019 ... https://finance.yahoo.com/.../encana-eca-gain-output-growth-141202532.h... Jun 14, 2019 - Encana Corporation ECA has been riding high on impressive production from its core assets namely Permian, Montney and Anadarko. Notably ... / 2 / Why Dividend Hunters Love Encana Corporation (TSE:ECA) https://finance.yahoo.com/.../why-dividend-hunters-love-encana-1434592... Jul 12, 2019 - Dividend paying stocks like Encana Corporation (TSE:ECA) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason - some research suggests a ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2019 NATGAS... Sooo Weak at $2.15 ! Down to only 3.8% of WTI Crude prices RRC / Range to NatGas SWN / So'western Energy to NatGas == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2019 ANOTHER DOWN DAY ... to $2.12 Really oversold now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2019 Yet another TRY for a Bottom in NATGAS? (Or is it in place at $2.03 already?) Larry Pesavento thinks we are near a bottom and once Natgas turns higher, it will run for a long time > https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/trade-what-you-see/trade-what-you-see-08-06-19-j2miW6wLFpa/ Natgas down 1.3%. Crude was down 2.7%. NatGas/WTI ratio rose again. Will NG rally hard, when Crude rallies? Natgas to-WTI USO/ US Oil etf : $10.84 - 0.30, -2.69% O: 10.81 / H: 10.89 L: 10.49. closed near Hi-Day Sym. : Last : chg.: % chg.: Yr. Low-High : off Low: vsHigh: EntVal. Ebitda: EV/Eb: PR.BV: PER: Yield NGas $2.08. - 0.03, - 1.33% ($2.03 - 4.93): +2.46% : - 57.8%: CNQ: $23.70, -0.01, - 0.04% (21.85 -35.95): +8.47% : - 34.1%: $28.3B: $4.55B: r6.22 : 110.%: 11.6 : 4.41% CHK: $ 1.39, Unch., +0.00% ($1.26- $4.98): +10.3% : - 72.1%: $14.6B : $3.08B: r4.75 : 90.0%; 2.67: N/A - ECA : $ 4.17, +0.07, + 1.71% ($3.93- 13.64): +6.11% : - 69.4%: $14.2B : $3.57B: r3.97 : 56.0%: 4.06: 1.67% GTE : $ 1.45, Unch., +0.00% ($1.40- $3.96): +3.57%: - 63.4%: $1.04B: $399.m: r2.62 : 54.0%: 7.14: N/A - MUR: $21.64, - 0.41, -1.86% (21.06- 36.53): +6.42%: - 40.8%: $7.65B: $1.85 B: r2.75 : 76.0%: 13.4: 4.54% RRC : $ 4.42, +0.11, +2.55% ($4.09- 18.60): +8.07%: - 76.3%: $4.90B: $1.32 B: r3.70 : 26.0%: N/A-: 1.81% SWN: $ 1.89, Unch., +0.00% ($1.64- 6.23) : +15.2% : - 69.7%: $3.06B: $1.36 B: r2.26 : 35.0%: 1.16 : N/A - SLB : $34.74, -0.72, - 2.03% (33.94- 66.67): +2.36%: - 47.9%: $48.1B: $6.62B: r10.1 : 134.%: 23.2: 5.76% HAL : $19.65, -0.30 -1.50% (19.12 - 42.57) : +2.77%: - 53.8%: $27.8B: $3.88B: r7.16 : 181.%: 13.0: 3.50% Bte.t: $ 1.78, - 0.10, -5.32% ($1.74- $4.73): + 2.30%: - 62.4%: $3.01B: $967m: r3.11 : 32.0%: N/A-: N/A- Sgy.t: $ 1.16, - 0.03, -2.52% ($1.06- $2.73): +19.8%: - 53.5%: $835m: $138.m: r6.07 : 44.0%: N/A-: 8.62% VII.T : $ 6.72 - 0.09, -1.32%. ($5.99- 16.82): +12.1 %: - 60.0% : $4.39B: $1.93B: r2.27 : 46.0%: 3.23: N/A- ===== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Sym./ Company —— : Last : change. Pct. / Yr. H.: change/ tracked, chg. BTE.t/ BaytexEnergy:C$1.57 +0.03, +1.95% / $3.13 - 00.0%/.$1.63, -3.68% GTE / Gran Tierra : $1.10, +0.06, +5.77% / $2.64 -58.3%/ $1.30, -15.4% PBT / Permian Basin : $3.60 +0.04, +1.12% / $8.50, -57.6%/ $5.92, -39.2%RRC / Range Res. : $4.14, +0.08, +1.97% / 13.69, -69.8%/ $3.61,+14.7% : sold $4.50 SWN/ Southwestern : $2.03, +0.01, +0.50% / $4.90, -58.6%/ $2.83, -28.3% SJT / San Juan Basin: $2.20, - 0.08, - 3.51% / $5.93, -62.9%/ $3.79, -42.0% XOP / O&G Expl, Prod: 21.52, +0.15, +0.70% / 33.30, -35.4%/ OIH / Oil Service etf. : 12.38, +0.03, +0.24% / 18.68, -33.7%/ XLE / Energy Select. : 59.77, +0.12, +0.20% / 68.81, -13.1%/ USO / US Oil etf. : 12.39, +0.06, +0.49% / 13.86, -10.6%/ === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 BULLISH ON OIL... (could be great timing, since we are now in Tax Selling season) Mark Gordon / with Keith McCullough of HedgeEye Mark Gordon: Unprecedented Opportunity in Oil Markets / 2 / Mark Gordon: Why the age of oil abundance is about to end. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Gordon to MacroVoices. They discuss why inventory is not what drives the price, the regime change from the age of peak oil to the age of oil abundance and possible impacts the recession will have on oil prices and more. == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 RRC / Range Popped to $4.73... and then pulled back RRC ... update : 10d / Last: $4.21 - 0.40, prev. $4.73 / Yr.H: $12.65, L: $3.26 : 10d / Last: $4.21 SWN ... update : 10d / Last: $4.21 - 0.40, prev. $4.73 / Yr.H: $12.65, L: $3.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 OIL RALLY has run up to a possible Resistance level USO / US Oil etf ... : All-data : 3-yr : x / Last: $12.72 + 0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looking like they might be making a bottom... SJT / San Juan Basin Royalty Trust ... 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $2.46 -0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 hours ago, drbubb said: USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d : NATGAS near at/near an Extreme?? Extreme Ratio (3.3%) to WTI Crude? - But how to play it, if you cannot Buy calls on natgas? NATGAS etfs ... update: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / UGAS: $69.75, vol.4.05M, UNG: $16.59, vol.4.68M, NGAS.L: $0.0205, vol.47.7M Symbol: XX : Last $: change: %chg. : Volume: $Value : UGAZ - : 3X : $ 69.75: + 2.70 : +4.03%: 4.05 M: $282.M: UNG — : 1X : $ 16.59: + 0.20 : +1.22%: 4.68 M : $77.6 M: options trade BOIL — : 2? : $ 8.28 : + 0.32 : +4.02%: 867. K : $7.18 M: NGAS.L: 1X : $ .0205: +.0001: +0.25 %: 47.7M : $.978 M: ======= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2020 SJT etc... 2yr: xx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 24 Report Share Posted August 24 UGI Corp ($24.60): PER: 7.88, EPS: 3.12, Div.: 1.50, Yield: 6.10%, (R: 20.19 to 26.15) BV. 21.80 / NatGas: $2.187=11.2x, /UNG: $13.72 =179.3% Video: 7% Yield And 100% Upside?! | Time To Buy 52 Week Low UGI Stock? | UGI Stock Analysis! | xx x UGI Corporation Announces Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering June 6, 2024 : 5.00% convertible senior notes due 2028; Domestic bonds: UGI Corporation, 5% 1jun2028, USD (Conv.) (US902681AA35) Convertible, Senior Unsecured The initial conversion rate is 36.2319 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $27.60 per share of common stock. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 20.0% over the last reported sale price of $23.00 per share of UGI’s common stock on June 6, 2024 VALLEY FORGE, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun. 6, 2024-- UGI Corporation (NYSE: UGI) (The “Company” or “UGI”) today announced its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $600M (raised to $700M) aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2028 (the “notes”) in a private offering to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). UGI also expects to grant the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, for settlement within a period of 13 days from, and including, the date the notes are first issued, up to an additional $90,000,000 principal amount of notes. The notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of UGI, will accrue interest payable semi-annually in arrears and will mature on June 1, 2028, unless earlier repurchased or converted. Noteholders will have the right to convert their notes in certain circumstances and during specified periods. UGI will settle conversions in cash and, if applicable, shares of its common stock. The notes will not be redeemable at UGI’s election before maturity. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the notes will be determined at the pricing of the offering. (5%) UGI intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to refinance existing indebtedness of UGI, including under UGI’s senior credit facility, and its subsidiaries and, for general corporate purposes. About UGI Corporation UGI Corporation (NYSE: UGI) is a distributor and marketer of energy products and services in the US and Europe. UGI offers safe, reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy solutions to customers through its subsidiaries, which provide natural gas transmission and distribution, electric generation and distribution, midstream services, propane distribution, renewable natural gas generation, distribution and marketing, and energy marketing services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 25 Report Share Posted August 25 APA ($28.47) - SWN - UNG : 2023: BTE (4.89) / UGI (24.60)= 19.9% === Sym/ Company: Price : PER: Yield: (R: L > High) : B.V. : %BV : APA / APA Corp : 28.47: 3.11: 3.51% (26.81-46.15) $14.66: 194.% BP / BP Plc : 34.11 : 13.5: 5.06% (32.51-40.84) $4.04: 8.44x EOG / EOG Res. : 126.9 : 9.79: 2.87% (108.9-139.7) 51.22: ?? EQT / EQT Corp.: 33.64: 21.3: 1.87% (30.02-45.23) % XOM/ ExxonMb.: 116.32 13.9: 3.27% (95.77-123.8) % UGI / UGI Corp. : 24.60: 7.88: 6.10% (20.19-26.15 ) 21.80 : 112.8% % === ALV.t/ AlvPetror : C$4.89: n/a : 1.84% ($3.89-$6.37) BTE.t/ BaytexEgy C$4.89 n/a : 1.84% ($3.89-$6.37) GTE / GranTierra $7.71 : n/a : n/a ($4.72-10.40) PBT / PermianBsn: 10.92: 18.2: 6.21% (10.15-22.50) RRC / Range Res: 30.56: 15.6: 1.05% (27.29-39.33) SOIL/ Saturn Oil C$2.64: n/a : n/a ($2.16-$3.06) SWN/ Southw’trn : $6.29: n/a : n/a ($5.85-$7.80) SJT / SanJnBasin: $3.45: 12.6: 9.94% ($3.39-$7.85) XOP / O&G Ex&Pr: 139.14 n/a : 2.40% (126.6-162.5) OIH / Oil Serv. etf: 302.6: n/a : 1.40% (278.6-364.1) XLE / Energy Sel.: 90.39: n/a : 3.24% (78.98-98.97) USO/ US Oil etf. : 75.55: n/a : n/a (63.84-83.81) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 26 Report Share Posted August 26 Saturn Oil & Gas / Undervalued Gas Play SOIL/ Saturn Oil C$2.64: n/a : n/a ($2.16-$3.06) BV: $3.61: 73.1% SOIL.t : Mid-2023-wk: -D: 2021: Jul.2022: Jul.'22: SOIL.t (C$2.64) /XOI (1,996)= .13%; BV: $3.61: 73.1%; PDP: $7.33: 36.0%; ProvR: $10.63: 24.8%; 5 reasons to invest in Saturn Oil & Gas today > source Production has grown steadily after four major acquisitions coming out of the pandemic, increasing from 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) in Q2 2021 to an estimated 38-40 MMboe/d between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, with more than 20 years of drilling inventory to keep operations running over the long term. This trajectory has been accompanied by 5.8x adjusted EBITDA growth from C$18 million in Q2 2022 to a quarterly record of C$106 million in Q2 2024 – almost C$400 million over the past year – providing the company with plenty of cash to pursue further growth. Profitability has grown meteorically over the past few years, swinging from a more than C$65 million loss in 2021 to net income of C$74.82 million in 2022 and C$290.62 million in 2023. Management has proven itself skilled at increasing operational efficiency, lowering operating and transportation costs by 23 per cent from 2021 to 2023 and royalties by 25 per cent over the same period. Saturn stock hasn’t reflected its underlying company’s profitable growth, having given back over 35 per cent since January 2022, suggesting an undervalued entry point. Saturn’s undervaluation is supported by the stock being worth C$7.33 per share based on proved, developed and producing reserves, C$10.63 based on proved reserves and C$16.11 based on proved and probable reserves, representing potentially exponential gains from the current share price. While the oil and gas markets are unavoidably tied to the macro worries of the day, and Saturn stock will swing according to this sentiment over the short-term, the company’s track record affords it a high probability of coming out ahead over the long-term by continuing to increase reserves, production and cash flow in line with shareholder value creation. About Saturn Oil & Gas Saturn Oil & Gas is a Canadian energy company operating free-cash-flowing assets in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Saturn Oil & Gas stock (TSX:SOIL) is up by 3.25 per cent, trading at C$2.54 per share as of 11:13 am ET. The stock has fallen by 0.39 per cent year-over-year, but has gained 5.83 per cent since 2019. === Q2/24 results ahead of expectations while focus remains on H2/24 execution (Canaccord) Tuesday after market, SOIL reported Q2/24 results ahead of expectations. Production of 30,127 boe/d came in ahead of our 26,432 boe/d forecast and consensus at 28,188 boe/d and CFPS of $0.52 also beat estimates of $0.39 (CGe) and $0.44 (consensus). While the quarterly beat is a positive, we note that with the recent acquisition having closed on June 14, we look to Q3/24 results and beyond for full contribution from the acquired assets under the SOIL banner. The company continues to trade at a sizeable discount to its peer group, trading at 1.8x 2025E EV/DACF on our updated estimates, compared to the peer group average of 2.4x. With the successful recapitalization of its balance sheet (thereby unlocking more FCF in the near term), we believe that as the company builds a track record and demonstrates an ability to extract value from its existing asset base, that a multiple re-rate will be warranted. We continue to rate SOIL a BUY and have increased our target price to $4.50 from $4.00, which maps to a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 2.5x. Highlights from the release: Quarterly results. Q2/24 production averaged 30,127 boe/d, beating our 26,432 boe/ d forecast and consensus at 28,188 boe/d. CFPS came in at $0.52, also ahead of our estimate of $0.39 and the Street at $0.44. SOIL exited the quarter with net debt of $792M, in line with our forecast of $781M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 26 Report Share Posted August 26 APA (28.82) versus XOI (2,013) =1.43%, UGI (24.92, 1.24%), UNG (13.41, 0.67%), at 8.21.24 APA-etc: mo.>2000: 2008: '12: wk.> '18: '20(exEqt): PER:3.15, Yld:3.47%, (R:26.81 to 46.145), BV: $14.66 2008: >2000: APA Corp. is one of the world's leading independent energy companies engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Geographically, the company's operations are in the U.S., Egypt and in the North Sea of the U.K. APA also holds acreage in offshore Suriname (S. America) & other international locations. In the U.S., the upstream player mainly operates in the prolific Permian Basin. One of the largest oil producers in Permian, APA operates oil and gas wells in the region, with exposure to Midland Basin, Delaware Basin, Central Basin Platform/ Northwestern Shelf. APA's major find is Alpine High located in the southern portion of the Delaware Basin will likely be the key volume growth driver in the years to come. APA is also involved in the midstream business through its minority stake in Permian-focused Altus Midstream Company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 27 Report Share Posted August 27 APA - SWN - SOIL ... APA(28.57)/ XOI-1983=1.44%; UGI(24.66, 1.24%), EQT(32.60,1.64%), UNG:13.20 > 2019: 9/’22: Ytd: 2019: SOIL(2.79)/ XOI-1983=.14%; BTE (4.84,.24%), SGY (6.64,.33%), UNG:13.20; 9/'22: Ytd: === Sym/ Company: Price : PER: Yield: (R: L >High) : B.V. : %BV : APA / APA Corp : 28.47: 3.11: 3.51% (26.81-46.15) $14.66: 194.% BP / BP Plc : 34.11 : 13.5: 5.06% (32.51-40.84) $ 4.04: 8.44x EOG / EOG Res. : 126.9 : 9.79: 2.87% (108.9-139.7) $51.22: 2.48x EQT / EQT Corp.: 33.64: 21.3: 1.87% (30.02-45.23) $34.23 98.3% XOM/ ExxonMb.: 116.32 13.9: 3.27% (95.77-123.8) $60.41: 193.% UGI / UGI Corp. : 24.60: 7.88: 6.10% (20.19-26.15 ) $ 21.80: 112.8% XOI / ArcaOil Idx: 2,000: N/A : N/A ( 1,762-2,275 ) === ALV.t/ Alvopetro: C$5.10: 10.7: 14.9% ($3.81-10.14 ) $2.25: 227.% BTE.t/ BaytexEy: C$4.89: n/a : 1.84% ($3.89-$6.37) $4.92: 99.4% GTE / GranTierra $7.71 : n/a : n/a ($4.72-10.40) $13.57: 56.8% PBT / PermianBsn: 10.92: 18.2: 6.21% (10.15-22.50) $00.00: 000.% RRC / Range Res : 30.56: 15.6: 1.05% (27.29-39.33) $15.93: 192.% SOIL/ Saturn Oil C$2.64: n/a : n/a ($2.16-$3.06) $3.61: 73.1% SWN/ Southw’trn : $6.29: n/a : n/a ($5.85-$7.80) $3.41: 184.% SJT / SanJnBasin: $3.45: 12.6: 9.94% ($3.39-$7.85) $0.06: 57.5x XOP / O&G Ex&Pr: 139.14 n/a : 2.40% (126.6-162.5) N/A : OIH / Oil Serv. etf: 302.6: n/a : 1.40% (278.6-364.1) N/A : XLE / Energy Sel.: 90.39: n/a : 3.24% (78.98-98.97) N/A : USO/ US Oil etf. : 75.55: n/a : n/a (63.84-83.81) N/A : USO/ US Oil etf. : 75.55: n/a : n/a (63.84-83.81) N/A : : ==== EQT (32.60)/ XOI-1983=1.64%, UNG:13.20 > 9/’22: Ytd: UGI(24.66)/ XOI-1983=1.24%; UNG:13.20 > 9/’22: Ytd: === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 27 Report Share Posted August 27 08.26.24; S: 108.7 / 104.3 Bcf = 104.2%: $2.12/ 2,010: 0.105% What is the significance of natural gas storage? Dena Wiggins: Natural gas storage is an essential part of the winter supply portfolio that enhances physical reliability and helps customers to manage their costs. Natural gas is purchased and injected into storage during the spring and summer when it typically costs less. This year, it is expected that we’ll enter winter 2 percent above the 5-year average with 3.7 Tcf of gas in storage, considerably more than last winter’s 3.5 Tcf levels. xx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 31 Report Share Posted August 31 SOIL News . Last: C$2.79 -0.04; Shs.OS: 204.2 Million, 5% Buyback underway (11M sh.). Q2-results SOIL develops "Light Oil" assets. Globe says Saturn Oil & Gas reaffirmed at "buy" 2024-08-23 14:50 C:SOIL 2.46 News Release Saturn Oil may buy back up to 11.3 million shares As of Aug. 21, 2024, Saturn had 204,198,643 common shares issued and outstanding and 113,068,253 common shares issued and outstanding after excluding common shares beneficially owned by directors and executive officers of Saturn and persons who beneficially own or exercise control or direction over more than 10 per cent of the issued and outstanding common shares of Saturn. The 11,306,825 common shares under the NCIB represent 10 per cent of the public float. (5.5%) Pursuant to TSX rules, the maximum number of common shares that may be repurchased during the same trading day on the TSX is 46,032 common shares (being 25 per cent of the average daily trading volume of Saturn common shares for the six months preceding the date of TSX acceptance of the NCIB, which was equal to 184,131 common shares), subject to certain exceptions for block repurchases. "The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Ventum Capital Markets analyst Adam Gill continues to rate Saturn Oil & Gas "buy," with an unchanged $7.50 share target. The Globe's David Leeder writes that analysts on average target the shares at $5.93. Mr. Gill sees Saturn Oil "finally flexing the FCF muscle" with the launch of a normal course issuer bid. Under the program Saturn Oil will be allowed to purchase about 11.3 million shares, or 10 per cent of the public float. Mr. Gill says in a note: "We see this as an important step to seeing the market recognize the company's FCF potential, which has been ignored given historically higher debt amortization. That said, with Saturn having an FCF yield of 24.2 per cent in 2025 on conservative strip pricing of $70 (U.S.)/Bbl WTI, well above mid/intermediate peers at 9.4 per cent, starting a return of cash program will be a key catalyst to get the market's attention === Outlook Saturn has now started its largest drilling program in its history with four rigs concurrently drilling horizontal wells targeting light oil, with two rigs in Southeast Saskatchewan, one rig in West Saskatchewan and one rig in Central Alberta. In total the Company expects to drill approximately 82 net operated wells in 2024 with an objective to modestly increase production in the range of 1-5% and a primary focus of reducing net debt with free funds flow. The Company expects to pay down the new Senior Notes on their scheduled 10% annual amortization schedule (paid quarterly). Saturn expects to continue to pursue strategic acquisition opportunities that are complementary to existing operations with attractive development opportunities. As the Company de-levers, Saturn intends to implement strategies to return capital to shareholders, which may include dividends or share buy-backs. About Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is a growing Canadian energy company focused on generating positive shareholder returns through the continued responsible development of high-quality, light oil weighted assets, supported by an acquisition strategy that targets highly accretive, complementary opportunities. Saturn has assembled an attractive portfolio of free-cash flowing, low-decline operated assets in Southeastern Saskatchewan, West Central Saskatchewan and Central/Northern Alberta that provide a deep inventory of long-term economic drilling opportunities across multiple zones. With an unwavering commitment to building an ESG-focused culture, Saturn's goal is to increase reserves, production and cash flows at an attractive return on invested capital.... Investor Webcast Saturn will host a webcast at 10:00 AM MT (12:00 PM Noon ET) on August 6, 2024, to discuss the second quarter financial report and provide investors an update. Participants can access the live webcast via: https://saturnoil.com/quarterly-results-webcast-registration/, or through the Company's website www.saturnoil.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted September 3 Report Share Posted September 3 NRT / No.European Royalty ($5.68>$5.13) PER: 11.78, EPS: 0.475, div.0.46, Yield: 8.17% R: 4.77-12.67, BV: xx 8.30.24: $5.68/ UNG (13.37)= 42.5%, APA (28.48, x%) ... 10yr: >2008: 2014: 2020: '24: x\ 2014: Update: APA (24.92) / XOI (1,870) = 1.33%; PER: 2.72, Yield: 4.01% (R: 24.775 to 44.74 ) BV: xx === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted September 12 Report Share Posted September 12 === Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts : source: Stock Name Country Market Cap PE Ratio Sitio Royalties (STR) United States $3.244B 13.14 Kimbell Royalty (KRP) United States $1.450B 31.62 Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) United States $1.157B 10.94 MV Oil Trust (MVO) United States $0.104B 5.97 Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) United States $0.055B 7.10 PERMIANVILLE ROYALTY TRUST (PVL) United States $0.050B 6.29 Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS) United States $0.008B 9.65 BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) United States $0.000B 0.00 Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) United States $0.000B 12.64 Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) United States $0.000B 16.22 Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) United States $0.000B 9.76 San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) United States $0.000B 12.26 === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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