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INFLATION, CRB, Oil Cycle and Rates


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INFLATION & RATE etfs, updated: 12.18.23, 4.07%

/ DBA (21.02)XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), TYX (40.69, r1.94x)

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/ DBA (21.02)XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), UDN (18.18)

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GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :  updated: 12.18.23

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RATES have moved far ahead of Energy Prices

GASO-etc vs.TYX: long Rates are now 4.94%, Gaso ($2.32)

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Energy price momentum has faded.

Unleaded Gaso ($2.32) is -22% <yrH ($2.98)

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Long Bond may be at/ near the very long term bottom

TLT /Treasuries, Long Term : 85.06. (R: 84.885 to 109.68),

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TYX: 49.37, 4.94%,  (R: 34.13 to 49.50)

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TESTING for a Breakout, as TNX rates rise to 4.3%

TNX-43.04 /USO-oil 76.33=56.4%; DBA-ags: 23.59, 30.9

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TNX (10 yr Rates) - look too high here

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Date  :   TNX :   US0:  x56%:  DBA: x182%= Combi /cmb 
3.15-: 43.04: 76.33: 42.74: 23.59: 42.93=42.84, 100.5 
Ye’23: 38.66: 66.55: 37.27:  20.74: 37.75 =  37.51,  103.1 
Ye’22: 38.79:  70.11 : 39.26: 20.15 : 36.67 = 37.97,  102.2 
Ye’21:  15.12 : 54.36: 30.44: 19.75: 35.95 = 33.20, 45.54
Ye’20: 09.17 : 33.01 : 18.49: 16.14:  29.37 = 23.93, 38.32 
Ye’19:  19.19 : 12.81 :  07.17 : 16.56: 30.14  = 18.65, 102.9 
====

TNX-etc.: Add: FCX (44.61) +w/ Dr Copper (4.12)

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Ratio: TNX (43.04) / USO (76.33) = 56.4%

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Ratio: TNX (43.04) / DBA (23.59) = 182.4%

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COMPARE: Commodity prices (XLE, DBA) with TNX. 10 yr. Rates

XLE may be approaching a Potential Top near $100 - Last: $97.49

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At $97.50:  Dagger is too short, Hilt is imbalanced.

On the negative side, Volume is fading on the new High.

Blade Line "needs to shift a bit higher"

DBA peak may be ahead neat $27

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TNX may have already peaked at 5.000 = 5.00%, 10 yr. Yield, Last: 4.379

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