SAT PORTFOLIO (PHL)

[webmaster]

WEEKLY CHART COMMENTS .  Not much interest in the PORTFOLIO, so I may shift the focus.

Towards having occasional WEEKLY CHART Comments like this one...

1.  Lower rates!  now TLT: $94.5 = US: 4.33%,  Phl.-10yr: 6.25%      

TLT Is BELLWETHER for the Biggest Global market, the US BOND Market, which influence interest rates everywhere.    

The TLT/BOND chart above was posted here 2-3 weeks, ago. I wrote that Bonds looked strong and might push thru important resistance at $91-92.  And I would be watching that.  What Happened?      TLT DID RISE.  And closed yesterday at 94.5, having pushed above $95 this week.   This rise was associated with a DROP in Long term rates at 4.325% (and as low as 4.12% his week.)  That is down from the year's peak near 5.15%, and 4.6%, when TLT was at $90./      Phl. rates are down too... from 7.2% in late Oct. to thu's 6.25% close for the 10 year.  The premium of 2.07% over US rates is in normal range.

2. APX now at P 2.90, up from near 2.60

APX / Apex Mining was at about P2.62.  I thought it was poised to go higher, maybe over 3.00 as Gold pushed higher - possible to new highs.over $2,080.  APX often follows UGL. 2x Gold, the blue line above.   Gold did shoot up, and made a visit to a new high at $2,150 very briefly.  But it has pulled back now to just over $2,000.   APX rose to 2.99, and closed THU at P2.90.  (Personally, I sold a small number of shares at 2,99, because I expected some resistance there.  If gold can revisit highs, APX could easily trade up to 3.20 or higher.)

3. MEG: P 1.99 / 94.55= 2.1%, down from 2.4%

MEG.  This is a chart from 11/17/23, And MEG looked like it had potential to push higher, making an important breakout above 2.10, "If TLT moved higher."  That did not happen.  TLT is higher, with lower rates.  But MEG has pulled back to THU's close at 1.99.  Disappointing, but not the end of the story.  As you can see in the chart below,  most PHL property stocks have not yet benefitted from lower rates...

4. TLT has soared to near $95, breaking 91 Resistance.  REITS, Property co's are lagging

Look at how TLT zoomed up.  If that rise continues. I will expect Phl. REITS and property developer stocks to follow.  Amazing to me to see: the average REIT div. yield on THU was 8.4%, and hat was almost DOUBLE the level the US Lond Bond rates.  That was the biggest premium I have ever seen!  I will note REIT yields are correlated with Bond yields but with a lag.  I see these stocks as a major opportunity now, and probably MEG and otehr developers too/

5. Bitcoin at $45.K.  Hive: $4.20, Riot: $15.80

NO TEARS for me, having SOLD out of BTC.  Over the last 10 trading days, BTC was up almost 20% to $45,000.  HIVE up 45%,  and RIOT up 35%.  This was a very pleasing CATCH-up for the bitcoin mining shares I am now holding "instead of"  Bitcoin.

 

[webmaster]

PSEI (6,643) vs. TLT ($96.52) and RCR (P5.15)

Vs. All Time Highs: P: -26.7% v 9,059, T: -43.5% v $171, R: -41.8% v P8.85

REIT stocks (on average) have broken their long downtrend, and I am now in profit on 4 of my 6 REIT Holdings.   

Total PHL Model Portfolio hit a new All Time High yesterday, beating the PSEI by an average of 11.5% per annum over the last 4-5 years.

[webmaster]

Rockwell is beginning to sign real signs of Life - reminds me of SHNG a year or so ago

ROCK at P1.48, has PER of 3.21, Yield of 5.08%. Ye'22 BV: 4.16, price was just 35.8%.  SHNG: 4.49 (9/23)

Their last Dividend announcement was July 28, 2023, and said:

"Ex-Date: Aug 17, 2023 ....  Regular Amount of Cash Dividend Per Share: Php 0.0752 per share to all common shareholders Record Date: Aug 23, 2023

Payment Date: Sep 18, 2023 Source of Dividend Payment: 20% previous year's net income after tax of 2,302M.

'22 EPS : 0.38A x 20% = 0.076 (0.0752 A) : /1.49= 5.05% 
'23 EPS : 0.50E x 20% = 0.10E, chg. +33%. / vs Current P1.48 price: 6.76%

"Reminds me of Shang" - UPDATED  SHNG div: 0.29 /3.45= 8.40%

ROCK-v-SHNG : 04.12.24: 1.48/3.45 = 40.3%/   ROCK rally to P2.50, would be +67.8%

03.07.24: 1.49/3.70 = 40.3%/   ROCK rally to P2.50, would be +67.8%

[webmaster]

GOLD has a way to go yet (Target?: maybe GLD-$212+ x10.81= $2,292)

[webmaster]

 Good Basics and Ideas here.  Clearly presented.

He talks about how his P2.3Million portfolio "produces income something like a small Condo"

MY TOP DIVIDEND STOCKS in 2024

His Top 5-6 suggestions are

Portfolio  Pr.: EPS: PER :  Div : Yield : 
DMC : 11.10 :  1.76: 6.30: 1.44: 12.97% 
CHIB: 35.90 : 8.18: 4.39: 1.89:  5.29% 
MBT : 63.00: 9.39:  6.71: 4.30: 6.83% 
LTG  : 10.20 : 2.22: 4.60: 1.20 : 11.76% 
GLO : 1,763 : 152.: 11.59: 1.00 :  5.67% 
/ also 
SHNG P3.70: 1.28: 2.90: 0.29 : 7.82%

Actually, there's a lot of overlap.  And I own, or have owned 10 of the stocks in his portfolio

[webmaster]

Important resistance at PSEI 7,000... and maybe 7,500

PSEI since Mid-2019: Last: 6,822 -100, -2.07% ( Range: 5,920.47 to 7,021.04 )

PSEI: 

Viber comment:  

PSEI : 6,822, -145.62, -2.09%. Could be rolling over!   The seasonal cycle is over (since early Feb.)

MARKET BEATING Day:

Main drivers : with RCI down and BEL up today, acct NAV is up +0.16% versus -2.09% in PSEI.  I remain grateful, and was happy to have taken some profits earlier this week, including today.   Up almost 13% in less than 3mos.  Versus +5.77% for PSEI since ye'2023 (Psei-6,450.) Outperformance is 7% in under 3 months, beating my Target outperformance of 1% a month. (That’s Not so easy, folks!)

[webmaster]

PSEI (6,659) to IWM (198.69) = RATIO 33.52x  ... monday update: 6,578 / IWM-fri-198.69 = 33.10 

A Chart showing the RATIO between PSEI and IWM (etf for the US Russell 2000 index)

...suggest that PSEI could be at/near a decent relative value BUY point.  

If you factored in the cheap PHP currency, it might look even better value

[webmaster]

PSEI (6,575) vs. TLT ($89) and RCR (P5.00), as proxy for my REIT portfolio

[webmaster]

( This was suggested by an investor friend who was very successful at a young age

- so he was able to retire from cold Canada, to sunny Bahamas.... )

IFN / India Fund (closed end, on NYSE): $17.55, BV: $17.87, PER: 5.43, Yield: 9.34%

See how well IFN tracks PSEI, much better than TLT/Bonds. PSEI (6,450) /IFN (17.55)= r-367.5x

IFN has outperformed PSEI, because of the High Dividend, and because IFN is denominated in USD, not PHP.

I might buy a few IFN shares so I will follow it, while awaiting a clearer bottom.

Called: "The Only Investment You Need for the Next 30 Years? "  

Per:  Dave Skarica, at AddictToProfits

> Source:   https://addictedtoprofits.net/the-only-investment-you-need-for-the-next-30-years-the-result-will-surprise-you-scotday-april-17th-2024/

[webmaster]

CLOSE-up: "India vs PSEI"

 IFN-vs-PSEI:  IFN (17.55) / PSEI (6,450)= r-0.27% of PSEI. And 0.74% of Gold Oz. / w/RCR: 

Table: Historical Ratios

YrEnd PSEI :  IFN : Ratio:   TLT  :  Gold : IF/Au  
2015: 6984: 22.74: 307.1  120.60: 1069: 2.13%  
2016: 6841: 21.39: 319.8: 119.10:  1146:  1.87%  
2017: 8558: 26.12: 327.6: 126.90: 1291: 2.02%  
2018: 7466: 20.24: 368.9 121.50: 1486: 1.36%  
2019: 7815:  20.13: 388.2 135.50: 1520: 1.32%  
2020: 7140: 19.96: 357.7: 157.70:  1877: 1.06%  
2021: 7335:  21.10: 347.6: 148.20 1828: 1.15%  
2022: 6556: 14.81: 442.7: $99.56 1824: 0.81%  
2023: 6450: 18.82 342.7: $98.88 2063: 0.91%  
/4.17 : 6450: 17.55: 367.5: $89.28 2360; 0.74%  
 ====

IFN to Gold: Cheapest yet at 0.74% of Gold Oz

====

IFN-vs-PSEI: 2019: 

==

[webmaster]

IPO is part of Yuchenko Group, RCBC etc.

IPO-etc: (P6.90)  / RCB (22.95) = 30.1%, HI: P3.50, 15.3%

RCB / Rizal Comm'l Bank: P22.95, BV: P56.86, PER:4.15x e-Y: 24.1%, d-Y: 4.42%

===

Sym:  Last :  BkVal.: PER:   EPS :   Div.,   D-Y% 
RCB: 22.95, 56.86, 4.15x  1.795:  1.014,  4.42%  
IPO : P6.90, 12.38, 12.8x  0.540: 0.190,  2.75%  
HI   : P3.50, 34.58, 0.00x 0.000: 0.050,  1.43%

IPO, together with HI, wholly owns and operates its main subsidiary, Malayan Education System, Inc., which operates under the name of Mapúa University. Mapúa University has its main campus in Intramuros, Manila and an extension campus in Buendia, Makati. Mapúa University also has three wholly-owned operating schools, the Malayan Colleges Laguna (A Mapúa School), Inc., Malayan Colleges Mindanao, Inc. and the Malayan High School of Science, Inc.

On May 2, 2019, the Company merged with AC Education, Inc., the wholly-owned education arm of Ayala Corporation, with IPO as the surviving entity. As a result, the Company acquired three additional operating subsidiaries: National Teachers College, University of Nueva Caceres, and Affordable Private Education Center, Inc., which is doing business under the name of APEC Schools.

[webmaster]

Reviewing the WINNERS & LOSERS of 2023-24:

Since Jan.2022, GLD/ Gold has massively outperformed PSEI, TLT, and Reits (like RCR)

==== :   ye’20 :  ye'21 :  ye'22 :  ye'23 :  Apr25 : '21>'24
Gold :  1,877. :  1,828.:   1,828.:   2,063.:  2,332.: +27.6%
GLD : 178.36:  170.96:  169.64:  191.17:  216.62: +27.7%
TLT  :  157.70:  148.20:   99.56:  98.88:   88.24:  -40.5%
PSEI :   7,140.:   7,335.:  6,556.:  6,450.:  6,629.:  -9.63%
RCR :   N / A :   P7.60 :  P5.85 :  P4.89 :  P5.14 :  -30.4%

==== :  

EXPECTED RETURNS in Property (REVISITED)
Investment: “Expected” : Notes
Buy-Build-Sell: 30%+: what Risks?
Builder Stocks: 25%+: Per PER=4.0*
Stock Trades  : 13%+: +PSEI gains
Land (lots?).   : 10% ?:  Long term?
REITS, phil.     :  8% +: +Cap.Gains
2nd-H.Bargain:  6% +: Mgmt. Issues
New Condos.  :  3% +: +Cap.Gains

( This was a jumping-off point for the discussion
That I led on Sat. morning, Oct. 20th.)

TRADE SELECTION: A very brief SUMMARY of my technique:
I aim to utilize ALL of the following in my trade selections:
+ I prefer LOW PER stocks, like <5x
+ I prefer HIGH DIV Yield stocks, 4% and up
+ I prefer to BUY BELOW BOOK Value, 

+ I want to see Leverage falling, as Total Borrowing declines and Shareholder equity is rising

+ I want a chart which shows signs of a bottoming process being underway, rather than a “falling knife”

Since Oct.'23, RESULTS were Great! : My Portfolio up +52.6% vs. 11% for PSEI

WATCH Portfolio, 10.31.23/ 4.26.24 Mvalue
APX.    2.58  40,816: 105,305/  3.39  138,366
BEL.     1.18   86,957: 102,609/  1.98  172,175
FILRT  3.00  33,557:  100,671/  2.70  90,604 
LTG     8.85   11,123:   98,439/  9.90   110,118
MAXS  4.00  25,062: 100,248/ 3.13   78,444
Mreit  12.18     8,210:  99,998/  13.0  106,730
RCI      .460  196.08k  90,197/  2.62  513,730
ROCK  1.32   71,429:  94,286/  1.47   105,001
VLL.     1.60  59,880:  95,808/  1.53    91,616
====.              ====. 887.6K/  ==== 1406.8k
Cash*  ==== ====   100.0K/  ====   100.0k
Watch  ==== ==== 987.6K/ 1506.8k +52.6%
            Vs. PSEI          5,974.    6,629.  +11.0%
            ======