Wanderer Posted January 17, 2009 Report Share Posted January 17, 2009 Hi all, I need some views from y'all to think about. Rest assured I'll not sue you/listen uncritically. I just want to put a situation out amongst GEI-ers and see if any comment resonates with where I am. No bitchy/sarcy posts please. Yes it might be naive to ask for views amongst strangers I've not met, but it is the quality of your argument that will persuade me, not what you say per se. Situation We are very pleasantly posted overseas with my job and housed well. We are ideally placed to sit out the credit crisis and UK property crash and should be overseas another two and a bit years - perfect timing. Thanks to STR'g a while ago and investing (thanks, GEI-ers) I'm in the fortunate position where I have very high savings relative to income (which is quite modest) i.e multiple times. My thinking had been to let these grow in gold etc. and then head back to the UK and buy a house in 2011. We hold no property at present. Problem Unfortunately for various reasons relating to family we may need to head back to the UK much sooner than this. I shan't go into them but you should consider them non-negotiable. However, if we go back this year I need to rethink plan A above. Options include: - trying to buy our 'ever-after' house now - placing 30% Below Asking Price offers in on market-average priced houses and seeing if someone nibbles (we are no-chain buyers); - buying a small place now (to conserve some cash for when the market falls further and possibly up-sizing then) - renting for a while If we buy a house, would people advise keeping the mortgage as small as possible (i.e. using every last scrap of cash except a few quid for a rainy day) or would they recommend mortgaging beyond what I need to keep some invested in gold etc? Also, if we were thinking of buying c. April, how would people advise me in terms of exiting Gold and other investments? I wouldn't want to risk losing out on a big run-up before Easter by selling now, but don't want to risk falling short of cash if the price of gold etc. falls before April.... I'm suddenly faced with an investment strategy that doesn't match my new time-horizon (last week was quite scary with gold falling sharply). Answers on a postcard please - stating your reasoning. Part of me thinks that if Govt. let the monetary floodgates go then we might see property escape capitulous falls from here-on-in in which case a decent price today for a 'happily ever after house' might not be so bad. We've already had some vendors indicate a willingness to sell at c.30% below initial 2007 (speculative) asking prices. Furthermore, we won't mortgage up heavily and if we see a paper loss for a while then is it really so bad? The emotional stress to my family of not buying is considerable (we've been in rented accommodation for 12 years and need some roots for our kids). But the larger part of me thinks 'don't touch property with a barge pole, gold is set to go...' This is probably the only time in our life when we'll have a good amount of working capital and I don't want to fritter it away or waste an opportunity. I've lived in Japan and seen the 14 years of falling property prices, so I'm innately cautious on property (and hence my STRing). Curiously, most of my previously go-go property family are now advising staying well out of property! Whatever happens we'll not mortgage beyond about 2.5 times salary as I've sat down and done the sums and can't see how we could possibly safely do more than this (even if we wanted to - which we don't). Wanderer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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